Colts War-room FFMD ‘21

[RTTRUTH]

Hi Colts fans. I’m playing Chris Ballard in this year’s version of FFMD. I will welcome any conversation on our biggest needs or positions I shouldn’t even consider “wasting” a draft pick on. The only two players I listed as on the trade block were Tyquan Lewis and Rock Ya-Sin. Any thoughts on that? Not expecting a whole lot of interest to be honest.

Following is a link to draft forum itself.

 

https://forums.footballsfuture.com/topic/34990-ffmd-draft-thread-draft-begins-329/

[Wyld Stallyns]

I’m not against trading Ya-Sin, he can be grabby at times and some teams know that if they target him it increases the chances of him committing penalties.

Lewis finally started showing enough in practice to get himself on the field and making plays. The Colt’s defensive staff has a tendency to not even play guys if they don’t show up enough in practice. That was Lewis in 2019 and then Banogu in 2020. Turay having an entire off season not recovering from an injury will hopefully be what he needs to take it to the next level. Problem is Turay and Lewis are both entering the final year of their contracts. Which is why we almost have to draft a pass rusher to replace one or both. 

But like you said, might not even get interest.

IMO our needs are as follows

EDGE, LT, WR, CB, TE and S (could be either FS or SS), and OL depth 

Position to ignore: HB, QB and maybe DT

I like the depth at DT but I’ll admit an injury could cause problems. Lewis is similar to Denico Autry in that he can play both DE and DT so he fills that void of moving inside on passing downs when Grover comes off the field.

I listed LT second because there are some very good OT who could be had in the second or barring a trade back up to the end of the first. There is also a chance that a run on EDGE guys leaves us not having a worthy pick at 21 then OT would make sense.

 

[RTTRUTH]

Sounds like you and me are pretty much on the same page. I feel like the depth mention of tight end is something a lot of writers overlook. But in our scheme it’s an important position.

This definitely is a good draft class to need a tackle in. 
 

My thing with Lewis is going back to when we drafted him I didn’t think it made sense, and he’s done very little to prove me wrong since then. And it’s an interesting point that he can move inside or play outside. At times I almost think that’s exactly what Ballard is looking for. But by the same token I feel like an elite pass rush is one goal that has eluded him since he got here. So I might tweak his MO a little.

It’s a valid point that they’re both heading into their last year (Lewis/Turay). But going back to my own personal scouting of them as prospects, I just think that barring injury, Turay will outplay Lewis noticeably this year. And mostly has since they got here. Just my opinion. I thought Turay was starting to really show what he was capable of when he broke his ankle. Some guys just don’t have the luck.

 

Depending how the board falls I might consider a small trade back in the first or second to see if I can get an extra pick. Not exactly out of character for our GM

 

[Wyld Stallyns]

And now the Colts just added a veteran LT to compete with the rookie we’ll likely be drafting 

[RTTRUTH]

Yeah Tevi actually held his own last year. Another shrewd signing by Ballard

[Wyld Stallyns]

In the other thread it said that rosters lock Tuesday Night so since a couple of the Colts signings weren’t officially announced until Wednesday and Hilton hasn’t officially been announced yet which players made the cut? 

[Warhorse]

Do you think we'll carry all four running backs?

[RTTRUTH]

If I had to guess, yes. But it’s close. Special teams value might keep Wilkins around. Or just insurance until they’re sure Mack is a full go

[RTTRUTH]

12 hours ago, Wyld Stallyns said:

In the other thread it said that rosters lock Tuesday Night so since a couple of the Colts signings weren’t officially announced until Wednesday and Hilton hasn’t officially been announced yet which players made the cut? 

Well in this exercise I’m allowed to include any real life signings into the exercise. I will edit those guys into the depth chart

[Wyld Stallyns]

1 hour ago, RTTRUTH said:

Well in this exercise I’m allowed to include any real life signings into the exercise. I will edit those guys into the depth chart

Excellent 

[RTTRUTH]

An update through the top 60 picks of how this draft is going...

 

Round 1 I had my eye on Darrisaw, Slater, and Jaelan Phillips at 21, with the expectation that the first two would be gone. After starting to get a bit of false hope when LAC did not go OL at 13, things started to make sense again quickly. Vikings took Slater with the very next pick, and two picks later Miami cleaned up Darrisaw at 16.

I was starting to get comfortable with the idea of adding to the pass rush with Phillips at 21. But life is funny, and drafts are frustrating. After a trade down, the Atlanta Falcons with a glaring need almost literally everywhere on defense sniped him at 19, two picks in front of me. Teven Jenkins got taken immediately after that, putting me on the clock at 21 with my three most likely targets off the board (Vera-Tucker was also long gone). So what to do...Outside of the box options (considering our needs) included Christian Barmore, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Rashod Bateman, or maybe a way-too-cute Rondale Moore or Pat Freiermuth desperation selection. I probably considered Bateman the most of that bunch. But with such glaring needs at DE and OT, and no 3rd round pick to add a viable "early starter", it seemed I had to look further down my list to decide what to do. After a short panic, I refocused on all the top 30 most likely names at positions of need that hadn't been taken yet. So that left Greg Rousseau, Liam Eichenberg, Dillon Radunz, Joseph Ossai, Samuel Cosmi, Jalen Mayfield, Kwity Paye, and maybe Greg Newsome or Asante Samuel Jr if you buy CB as a top need. 

 

I wasn't expecting Paye to be available. And too much stock should not be put into workouts, but Damn!! This dude put up some measurables you just do not see every year for guys his size. 4.52 in the 40 (average 4.81 for DE), 36 reps on the bench (24-25 average for DE), and most insane, a reported 6.37 3-cone drill (average is 7.23 for DE). It sounded so impossible I timed him myself on my phone watching the video. While I am not an expert using timers, I actually clocked him faster than that, making his time more believable even if my timing wasn't perfect. Ultimately I took the calculated that I could land one of Mayfield, Cosmi, Radunz, or Eichenberg in the 2nd round and decided that it made sense to gamble on the potential upside with Kwity Paye at 21. That would give us a starting five of Paye and Banogu, our athletic upside players, and Turay, Rochell, and Muhammad rounding out the top 5. Tyquan is playing for his job this training camp. Better show something or he won't make the 53. I doubt he does.

 

Round 2 I knew I was hoping for a starting caliber LT to fall. By the time I came back around at 54 I was looking at either Dillon Radunz, the athlete from division II North Dakota State, or Jalen Mayfield, the sturdy RT from Michigan, who had faced the likes of Chase Young and anyone the mighty Alabama had thrown out on the field. Ultimately I went with Mayfield, just to prove I don't always gamble on testing numbers, since his weren't spectacular.

But personally I think his tape says I absolutely belong in the first round. He held his own against some special talents, some NFL talent. And I believe that with our shrewd signings of Tevi and Davenport he won't be forced to play too early. I think it would ultimately shake out one of two ways. Either the OC/OL coach move Braden Smith to LT and Mayfield could probably start at RT (his college position) from day one. OR, B.Smith stays on the right side, and Sam Tevi competes in camp with rookie Mayfield to see who is better prepared to man the Left side week one. I think if Mayfield needed extra time to adjust to pushing off his right foot during his kick-slide and punching angled the opposite way than we could get by with Tevi starting there until Mayfield felt more comfortable. Either way it becomes a pick based on talent and is then up to the coaching staff to get their best five guys out on the field. With those two needs met, and after the re-signings of Xavier Rhodes and T.Y. Hilton I'm now free to basically handle the rest of the draft from a truer BPA approach. Although my personal strategy for allocating draft resources is always to consider the weaker positions on the roster, or positions with faster approaching contract and/or age-related losses.

[Wyld Stallyns]

14 hours ago, RTTRUTH said:

An update through the top 60 picks of how this draft is going...

 

Round 1 I had my eye on Darrisaw, Slater, and Jaelan Phillips at 21, with the expectation that the first two would be gone. After starting to get a bit of false hope when LAC did not go OL at 13, things started to make sense again quickly. Vikings took Slater with the very next pick, and two picks later Miami cleaned up Darrisaw at 16.

I was starting to get comfortable with the idea of adding to the pass rush with Phillips at 21. But life is funny, and drafts are frustrating. After a trade down, the Atlanta Falcons with a glaring need almost literally everywhere on defense sniped him at 19, two picks in front of me. Teven Jenkins got taken immediately after that, putting me on the clock at 21 with my three most likely targets off the board (Vera-Tucker was also long gone). So what to do...Outside of the box options (considering our needs) included Christian Barmore, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Rashod Bateman, or maybe a way-too-cute Rondale Moore or Pat Freiermuth desperation selection. I probably considered Bateman the most of that bunch. But with such glaring needs at DE and OT, and no 3rd round pick to add a viable "early starter", it seemed I had to look further down my list to decide what to do. After a short panic, I refocused on all the top 30 most likely names at positions of need that hadn't been taken yet. So that left Greg Rousseau, Liam Eichenberg, Dillon Radunz, Joseph Ossai, Samuel Cosmi, Jalen Mayfield, Kwity Paye, and maybe Greg Newsome or Asante Samuel Jr if you buy CB as a top need. 

 

I wasn't expecting Paye to be available. And too much stock should not be put into workouts, but Damn!! This dude put up some measurables you just do not see every year for guys his size. 4.52 in the 40 (average 4.81 for DE), 36 reps on the bench (24-25 average for DE), and most insane, a reported 6.37 3-cone drill (average is 7.23 for DE). It sounded so impossible I timed him myself on my phone watching the video. While I am not an expert using timers, I actually clocked him faster than that, making his time more believable even if my timing wasn't perfect. Ultimately I took the calculated that I could land one of Mayfield, Cosmi, Radunz, or Eichenberg in the 2nd round and decided that it made sense to gamble on the potential upside with Kwity Paye at 21. That would give us a starting five of Paye and Banogu, our athletic upside players, and Turay, Rochell, and Muhammad rounding out the top 5. Tyquan is playing for his job this training camp. Better show something or he won't make the 53. I doubt he does.

 

Round 2 I knew I was hoping for a starting caliber LT to fall. By the time I came back around at 54 I was looking at either Dillon Radunz, the athlete from division II North Dakota State, or Jalen Mayfield, the sturdy RT from Michigan, who had faced the likes of Chase Young and anyone the mighty Alabama had thrown out on the field. Ultimately I went with Mayfield, just to prove I don't always gamble on testing numbers, since his weren't spectacular.

But personally I think his tape says I absolutely belong in the first round. He held his own against some special talents, some NFL talent. And I believe that with our shrewd signings of Tevi and Davenport he won't be forced to play too early. I think it would ultimately shake out one of two ways. Either the OC/OL coach move Braden Smith to LT and Mayfield could probably start at RT (his college position) from day one. OR, B.Smith stays on the right side, and Sam Tevi competes in camp with rookie Mayfield to see who is better prepared to man the Left side week one. I think if Mayfield needed extra time to adjust to pushing off his right foot during his kick-slide and punching angled the opposite way than we could get by with Tevi starting there until Mayfield felt more comfortable. Either way it becomes a pick based on talent and is then up to the coaching staff to get their best five guys out on the field. With those two needs met, and after the re-signings of Xavier Rhodes and T.Y. Hilton I'm now free to basically handle the rest of the draft from a truer BPA approach. Although my personal strategy for allocating draft resources is always to consider the weaker positions on the roster, or positions with faster approaching contract and/or age-related losses.

I didn’t see this post last night otherwise I would’ve commented then, happy with both picks. I’ve seen some mock drafts with Paye selected to us so there is a chance that between runs on QBs, WRs and OTs that EDGE players fall to us. Also with WFT, Bears and us picking one after the other and all needing OT some people might try to trade ahead of that group to get the OT they want.

I’m glad that Jaelan Phillips didn’t fall because of his concussion history. Maybe I’m over thinking it but I feel like one of two bad circumstances could lead to him retiring early again.

I haven’t seen a lot of Mayfield so I can’t comment on the player but the position is a need. Also I would rather have Mayfield beat out Tevi for LT then move Smith there. 

[RTTRUTH]

4 hours ago, Wyld Stallyns said:

Also with WFT, Bears and us picking one after the other and all needing OT some people might try to trade ahead of that group to get the OT they want.

I definitely considered it. But without the 3rd from the Wentz trade I got anxious thinking about losing more draft capital. I possibly should have anyways. But Ballard has tended to trade back as opposed to moving up. It was a tough call. 

[Warhorse]

21 hours ago, RTTRUTH said:

An update through the top 60 picks of how this draft is going...

 

Round 1 I had my eye on Darrisaw, Slater, and Jaelan Phillips at 21, with the expectation that the first two would be gone. After starting to get a bit of false hope when LAC did not go OL at 13, things started to make sense again quickly. Vikings took Slater with the very next pick, and two picks later Miami cleaned up Darrisaw at 16.

I was starting to get comfortable with the idea of adding to the pass rush with Phillips at 21. But life is funny, and drafts are frustrating. After a trade down, the Atlanta Falcons with a glaring need almost literally everywhere on defense sniped him at 19, two picks in front of me. Teven Jenkins got taken immediately after that, putting me on the clock at 21 with my three most likely targets off the board (Vera-Tucker was also long gone). So what to do...Outside of the box options (considering our needs) included Christian Barmore, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Rashod Bateman, or maybe a way-too-cute Rondale Moore or Pat Freiermuth desperation selection. I probably considered Bateman the most of that bunch. But with such glaring needs at DE and OT, and no 3rd round pick to add a viable "early starter", it seemed I had to look further down my list to decide what to do. After a short panic, I refocused on all the top 30 most likely names at positions of need that hadn't been taken yet. So that left Greg Rousseau, Liam Eichenberg, Dillon Radunz, Joseph Ossai, Samuel Cosmi, Jalen Mayfield, Kwity Paye, and maybe Greg Newsome or Asante Samuel Jr if you buy CB as a top need. 

 

I wasn't expecting Paye to be available. And too much stock should not be put into workouts, but Damn!! This dude put up some measurables you just do not see every year for guys his size. 4.52 in the 40 (average 4.81 for DE), 36 reps on the bench (24-25 average for DE), and most insane, a reported 6.37 3-cone drill (average is 7.23 for DE). It sounded so impossible I timed him myself on my phone watching the video. While I am not an expert using timers, I actually clocked him faster than that, making his time more believable even if my timing wasn't perfect. Ultimately I took the calculated that I could land one of Mayfield, Cosmi, Radunz, or Eichenberg in the 2nd round and decided that it made sense to gamble on the potential upside with Kwity Paye at 21. That would give us a starting five of Paye and Banogu, our athletic upside players, and Turay, Rochell, and Muhammad rounding out the top 5. Tyquan is playing for his job this training camp. Better show something or he won't make the 53. I doubt he does.

 

Round 2 I knew I was hoping for a starting caliber LT to fall. By the time I came back around at 54 I was looking at either Dillon Radunz, the athlete from division II North Dakota State, or Jalen Mayfield, the sturdy RT from Michigan, who had faced the likes of Chase Young and anyone the mighty Alabama had thrown out on the field. Ultimately I went with Mayfield, just to prove I don't always gamble on testing numbers, since his weren't spectacular.

But personally I think his tape says I absolutely belong in the first round. He held his own against some special talents, some NFL talent. And I believe that with our shrewd signings of Tevi and Davenport he won't be forced to play too early. I think it would ultimately shake out one of two ways. Either the OC/OL coach move Braden Smith to LT and Mayfield could probably start at RT (his college position) from day one. OR, B.Smith stays on the right side, and Sam Tevi competes in camp with rookie Mayfield to see who is better prepared to man the Left side week one. I think if Mayfield needed extra time to adjust to pushing off his right foot during his kick-slide and punching angled the opposite way than we could get by with Tevi starting there until Mayfield felt more comfortable. Either way it becomes a pick based on talent and is then up to the coaching staff to get their best five guys out on the field. With those two needs met, and after the re-signings of Xavier Rhodes and T.Y. Hilton I'm now free to basically handle the rest of the draft from a truer BPA approach. Although my personal strategy for allocating draft resources is always to consider the weaker positions on the roster, or positions with faster approaching contract and/or age-related losses.

Considering the way things fell, I think you did really well. I love Kwity and can't wait to see how he develops. 

[coffeedrinker]

On 4/2/2021 at 3:38 PM, RTTRUTH said:

An update through the top 60 picks of how this draft is going...

 

Round 1 I had my eye on Darrisaw, Slater, and Jaelan Phillips at 21, with the expectation that the first two would be gone. After starting to get a bit of false hope when LAC did not go OL at 13, things started to make sense again quickly. Vikings took Slater with the very next pick, and two picks later Miami cleaned up Darrisaw at 16.

I was starting to get comfortable with the idea of adding to the pass rush with Phillips at 21. But life is funny, and drafts are frustrating. After a trade down, the Atlanta Falcons with a glaring need almost literally everywhere on defense sniped him at 19, two picks in front of me. Teven Jenkins got taken immediately after that, putting me on the clock at 21 with my three most likely targets off the board (Vera-Tucker was also long gone). So what to do...Outside of the box options (considering our needs) included Christian Barmore, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Rashod Bateman, or maybe a way-too-cute Rondale Moore or Pat Freiermuth desperation selection. I probably considered Bateman the most of that bunch. But with such glaring needs at DE and OT, and no 3rd round pick to add a viable "early starter", it seemed I had to look further down my list to decide what to do. After a short panic, I refocused on all the top 30 most likely names at positions of need that hadn't been taken yet. So that left Greg Rousseau, Liam Eichenberg, Dillon Radunz, Joseph Ossai, Samuel Cosmi, Jalen Mayfield, Kwity Paye, and maybe Greg Newsome or Asante Samuel Jr if you buy CB as a top need. 

 

I wasn't expecting Paye to be available. And too much stock should not be put into workouts, but Damn!! This dude put up some measurables you just do not see every year for guys his size. 4.52 in the 40 (average 4.81 for DE), 36 reps on the bench (24-25 average for DE), and most insane, a reported 6.37 3-cone drill (average is 7.23 for DE). It sounded so impossible I timed him myself on my phone watching the video. While I am not an expert using timers, I actually clocked him faster than that, making his time more believable even if my timing wasn't perfect. Ultimately I took the calculated that I could land one of Mayfield, Cosmi, Radunz, or Eichenberg in the 2nd round and decided that it made sense to gamble on the potential upside with Kwity Paye at 21. That would give us a starting five of Paye and Banogu, our athletic upside players, and Turay, Rochell, and Muhammad rounding out the top 5. Tyquan is playing for his job this training camp. Better show something or he won't make the 53. I doubt he does.

 

Round 2 I knew I was hoping for a starting caliber LT to fall. By the time I came back around at 54 I was looking at either Dillon Radunz, the athlete from division II North Dakota State, or Jalen Mayfield, the sturdy RT from Michigan, who had faced the likes of Chase Young and anyone the mighty Alabama had thrown out on the field. Ultimately I went with Mayfield, just to prove I don't always gamble on testing numbers, since his weren't spectacular.

But personally I think his tape says I absolutely belong in the first round. He held his own against some special talents, some NFL talent. And I believe that with our shrewd signings of Tevi and Davenport he won't be forced to play too early. I think it would ultimately shake out one of two ways. Either the OC/OL coach move Braden Smith to LT and Mayfield could probably start at RT (his college position) from day one. OR, B.Smith stays on the right side, and Sam Tevi competes in camp with rookie Mayfield to see who is better prepared to man the Left side week one. I think if Mayfield needed extra time to adjust to pushing off his right foot during his kick-slide and punching angled the opposite way than we could get by with Tevi starting there until Mayfield felt more comfortable. Either way it becomes a pick based on talent and is then up to the coaching staff to get their best five guys out on the field. With those two needs met, and after the re-signings of Xavier Rhodes and T.Y. Hilton I'm now free to basically handle the rest of the draft from a truer BPA approach. Although my personal strategy for allocating draft resources is always to consider the weaker positions on the roster, or positions with faster approaching contract and/or age-related losses.

As a Michigan fan, I would love for Paye to fall to the Colts at 21, I wanted that even before his pro-day but I watched him nearly every week they played and the progress he made on a weekly basis was excellent.  At the end of this messed up year I thought Paye was playing like a late first/early second rounder.  Then when you add in his work ethic and measurables, I don't think he makes it out of the top 15.  I hope I'm wrong, like I said, I would love for him to be there at 21.

At the same token, I like Mayfield as well.  And I know this is for your being the GM but I don't see CB taking two players from Michigan in a row.

 

Good work though and thanks for putting in the time to not only do the draft but to keep us informed.

Edited April 6, 2021 by coffeedrinker