FFMD 2021 Vikings War Room

[Ozzy]

30 minutes ago, RpMc said:

For every Crosby, there's a Dan Bailey - for every Gostkowski, there's a Justin Tucker, Ryan Longwell, etc. If the odds of getting a good kicker are the same between the draft and UDFA, simple logic says not to draft one.

For every JaMarcus Russell there is a Kurt Warner.  For every David Carr there is a Tony Romo  You could say that about any position really, almost every position has a few success stories form guys that were UDFAs.  So that means it is stupid to draft a guy in a higher round because there were a few success stories of guys that were UDFAs?  Also the numbers are skewed based on how few kickers are in the NFL and are even NFL prospects typically.  Yeah there are about 50 or so RB and WR prospects every season by position, kickers maybe what 3 that people might know.  

Vikings do not draft a kicker, then what have their kicker be Greg Joseph.  Great plan there.  

 

Riley Patterson on Memphis could become a fine kicker, probably will be a UDFA.  That is because he is bad, no it is probably because he had a poor kicking seasons last year compared to his JR season.  It is a proven stat that kickers bust more than any other position drafted?   Granted kicking is hard to evaluate, but Blair Walsh for example was a great kicker for the team for years as a 6th round pick, that was a mistake taking him?  Sure his confidence was destroyed after he missed that kick in the playoffs but the logic of screw it, get a UDFA to kick your field goals?  Not buying that one because we are not New England here with a great record of being able to develop multiple good kickers....instead of being an organization that cut a guy what two games into his career and he was 33-35 last season kicking field goals last year.  

 

3 minutes ago, SemperFeist said:

Less than half of the league’s kickers were drafted. And the list of undrafted kickers is much more impressive than the list of drafted kickers. 

You have proof on that one?  How about you dig a little deeper than that and go back 30 years not just right now where it seems to match with what you are saying.  

 

7 out of the 10 best kickers all time who were all drafted: Matt Stover, Jason Elam, Jason Hanson, Gary Anderson, Stephen Gostkowski, George Blanda, Morten Anderson

 

3 out of 10 Justin Tucker, Lou Groza and Adam Vinatieri were all UDFA.  One list is bigger than the other, then go back then next 50 best kickers and see, yeah they are not all freaking UDFAs. And again the Vikings have obviously not shown any ability recently to develop UDFA kickers like some other teams have done.  

[RpMc]

Except that there aren’t an even number match for highly drafted QBs and undrafted QBs. It’s a totally disingenuous argument on your behalf to suggest as much. The numbers are highly in favor of the top QB pick vs the UDFA in terms of expected career value.  
 

top 20 scoring kickers of all time, 11 (Blanda and Stover were 12th round draft picks, undrafted by today’s standard (in a 12 round draft, go nuts, draft a kicker)) were undrafted and 9 drafted. Even if I give you Blanda and Stover, it’s still roughly a coin flip in terms of drafted kicker vs not.  To me, coin flip on success = no need to invest draft capitol in it. Expand it beyond the top 20 and the pattern remains, if not favors the UDFAs

Add to that list:  Justin Tucker, Dan Bailey, Robbie Gould, Matt Prater, Ryan Longwell, Al Del Greco, Olindo Mare, Rian Lindell, Shayne Graham, et al

Greg Joseph + UDFA is just as likely to produce a successful kicker as drafting one. 
 

 

Edited April 9, 2021 by RpMc

[SemperFeist]

5 hours ago, RpMc said:

Except that there aren’t an even number match for highly drafted QBs and undrafted QBs. It’s a totally disingenuous argument on your behalf to suggest as much. The numbers are highly in favor of the top QB pick vs the UDFA in terms of expected career value.  
 

top 20 scoring kickers of all time, 11 (Blanda and Stover were 12th round draft picks, undrafted by today’s standard (in a 12 round draft, go nuts, draft a kicker)) were undrafted and 9 drafted. Even if I give you Blanda and Stover, it’s still roughly a coin flip in terms of drafted kicker vs not.  To me, coin flip on success = no need to invest draft capitol in it. Expand it beyond the top 20 and the pattern remains, if not favors the UDFAs

Add to that list:  Justin Tucker, Dan Bailey, Robbie Gould, Matt Prater, Ryan Longwell, Al Del Greco, Olindo Mare, Rian Lindell, Shayne Graham, et al

Greg Joseph + UDFA is just as likely to produce a successful kicker as drafting one. 
 

 

Go a step further. How many of the kickers drafted had the successful portion of their career with the team that drafted them?

[Cearbhall]

7 hours ago, RpMc said:

Even if I give you Blanda and Stover, it’s still roughly a coin flip in terms of drafted kicker vs not.  To me, coin flip on success = no need to invest draft capitol in it. Expand it beyond the top 20 and the pattern remains, if not favors the UDFAs

I am not sure that you are understanding the stats correctly. I do not know the exact numbers, but teams have signed far more undrafted kickers than the number of kickers that were drafted.

Let me clarify that the numbers that follow are not the real numbers. They are only numbers that are representative of my guess in order to give an example.

Let's say that in the last 30 years there have been 60 kickers drafted. In that same time, there have been 180 undrafted kickers signed. Out of these 240 kickers, there were 15 drafted kickers that kicked for the team that drafted them for 5+ years. Likewise, lets say there were 15 undrafted kickers that kicked for 5+ years for the team that originally signed them.

There are now the same number of drafted and undrafted kickers that played for 5+ years for the team that originally signed them. 

Does that mean that drafting a kicker gave you a coin flip on success?

Let's assume a fair coin and a fair flip in all ways. When you make a statement like that is it fair to say that you are suggesting there is a 50% chance of success (defined as kicking for the team for 5+ seasons) when you draft a kicker?

Here would be the reality:

Drafted kicker: 15/60 = 25% chance of success.
Undrafted kicker: 15/180 = 8.3% chance of success.
 

I get your argument. I simply think that the process you are using to come to your conclusion is so seriously flawed that it weakens your case for not drafting a kicker.

I would be shocked if the numbers show anything other than chances of success with a kicker are dramatically higher when the kicker is drafted.

[Ozzy]

Over 50% of all 1st round picks bust in the NFL at all positions.

https://theriotreport.com/more-than-50-of-first-round-picks-are-busts-and-other-terrifying-draft-statistics/#:~:text=More Than 50% Of First,And Other Terrifying Draft Statistics

 

So just like kickers, screw it and do not draft anyone ever because they all could suck at the end of the day 50% chance, why even bother?

 

 

Rodrigo Blankenship was a UDFA last year but he should have been drafted and did decent.  Tyler Bass was a solid kicker and did not miss last year and was drafted.  Sure being drafted as a kicker then puts pressure on you as a kicker but if they cannot handle that pressure well they should not be a kicker.

 

Either way the Vikings clearly cannot handle kickers or develop them under this current staff.  Blair Walsh flamed out because of low confidence and mental issues, same with what Daniel Carlson then he flourishes in another environment and now Dan Bailey mentally just off and all of a sudden sucks at kicking.  Not a ton of faith in yeah take a UDFA and he is the kicker for the next 10 years with this organization.  

 

See a talented kicker you take them, and the two top kickers are pretty solid in this years draft but sure I would not mind Riley Patterson as a UDFA either.   To say the draft capital of a 5th, 6th or 7th round pick is spending a lot, yeah it is not especially when you have 10 selections in the draft upcoming.  If they cannot rap their mind around taking a kicker at some point in the later rounds then they should find a new job.  

 

11 minutes ago, Cearbhall said:

I am not sure that you are understanding the stats correctly. I do not know the exact numbers, but teams have signed far more undrafted kickers than the number of kickers that were drafted.

Let me clarify that the numbers that follow are not the real numbers. They are only numbers that are representative of my guess in order to give an example.

Let's say that in the last 30 years there have been 60 kickers drafted. In that same time, there have been 180 undrafted kickers signed. Out of these 240 kickers, there were 15 drafted kickers that kicked for the team that drafted them for 5+ years. Likewise, lets say there were 15 undrafted kickers that kicked for 5+ years for the team that originally signed them.

There are now the same number of drafted and undrafted kickers that played for 5+ years for the team that originally signed them. 

Does that mean that drafting a kicker gave you a coin flip on success?

Let's assume a fair coin and a fair flip in all ways. When you make a statement like that is it fair to say that you are suggesting there is a 50% chance of success (defined as kicking for the team for 5+ seasons) when you draft a kicker?

Here would be the reality:

Drafted kicker: 15/60 = 25% chance of success.
Undrafted kicker: 15/180 = 8.3% chance of success.
 

I get your argument. I simply think that the process you are using to come to your conclusion is so seriously flawed that it weakens your case for not drafting a kicker.

I would be shocked if the numbers show anything other than chances of success with a kicker are dramatically higher when the kicker is drafted.

[bcb1213]

11 hours ago, SemperFeist said:

Less than half of the league’s kickers were drafted. And the list of undrafted kickers is much more impressive than the list of drafted kickers.

Not to mention, of the 13 teams with kickers who were drafted, only 3 of those kickers are on the team who drafted them. 

When you draft a kicker, you’re just drafting another team’s future kicker. 

Less than 40% of first round qb make it in the league. Should you never draft one in the first round then? 

[RpMc]

1 hour ago, Cearbhall said:

I am not sure that you are understanding the stats correctly. I do not know the exact numbers, but teams have signed far more undrafted kickers than the number of kickers that were drafted.

Let me clarify that the numbers that follow are not the real numbers. They are only numbers that are representative of my guess in order to give an example.

Let's say that in the last 30 years there have been 60 kickers drafted. In that same time, there have been 180 undrafted kickers signed. Out of these 240 kickers, there were 15 drafted kickers that kicked for the team that drafted them for 5+ years. Likewise, lets say there were 15 undrafted kickers that kicked for 5+ years for the team that originally signed them.

There are now the same number of drafted and undrafted kickers that played for 5+ years for the team that originally signed them. 

Does that mean that drafting a kicker gave you a coin flip on success?

Let's assume a fair coin and a fair flip in all ways. When you make a statement like that is it fair to say that you are suggesting there is a 50% chance of success (defined as kicking for the team for 5+ seasons) when you draft a kicker?

Here would be the reality:

Drafted kicker: 15/60 = 25% chance of success.
Undrafted kicker: 15/180 = 8.3% chance of success.
 

I get your argument. I simply think that the process you are using to come to your conclusion is so seriously flawed that it weakens your case for not drafting a kicker.

I would be shocked if the numbers show anything other than chances of success with a kicker are dramatically higher when the kicker is drafted.

No, I understand fully that there are more undrafted kickers signed to UDFA contracts than there are drafted kickers, but the undrafted free agency period is a market where you are free to take multiple swings without having to invest draft capital in what's shown to be a volatile position in which, even more so than others, college success is not always indicative of pro success.

"For every Sebastian Janikowski there is Roberto Aguayo. Of the 47 kickers taken since the draft went to its current round format, 19 ended up kicking for the team that drafted them for at least three seasons"

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28990207/nfl-draft-conundrum-using-pick-kicker-complicated-decision

"Since 2000, all drafted kickers have made 5,532 of 6,794 field goals, a rate of 81.4 percent. Free agents are 7,937 for 9,595, or 82.7 percent. Among those free agents is only the most accurate and prolific long-distance kicker in NFL history, two-time All-Pro Justin Tucker. Even if we go super rarified, the best of the best kicking prospects — just the nine men to kick this century who were drafted as kickers in the first three rounds — the percentage is just 81.3 percent (1,680 for 2,066). And the bulk of that is longtime Raider and current Seahawk Janikowski, who is also below average at just 80.3 percent on 517 career attempts.^3"

 

^{https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/memo-to-nfl-gms-stop-drafting-kickers/}

---------

 

 

[SemperFeist]

3 minutes ago, bcb1213 said:

Less than 40% of first round qb make it in the league. Should you never draft one in the first round then? 

Now compare it to the percentage of the other rounds.

[RpMc]

5 minutes ago, bcb1213 said:

Less than 40% of first round qb make it in the league. Should you never draft one in the first round then? 

What's the percentage of 2nd round picks? 3rd? 4th? 7th? UDFA?  Is the percentage of first round QB's significantly higher? (Hint, yes it is).  Does the percentage drop from round to round? (Hint, pretty much, yeah).

You're taking a strawman stance with an argument no one is making.

[bcb1213]

37 minutes ago, RpMc said:

What's the percentage of 2nd round picks? 3rd? 4th? 7th? UDFA?  Is the percentage of first round QB's significantly higher? (Hint, yes it is).  Does the percentage drop from round to round? (Hint, pretty much, yeah).

You're taking a strawman stance with an argument no one is making.

14 qb were drafted top five between 2009 and 2018.  Only one is with their drafted team (baker Mayfield). Not bust rate Stat,  just something I found 

 

Every Kicker selected fifth round or later  2009-2018 

Jason Sanders *

Daniel Carlson  *

Harrison butker*

Zane Gonzales *

Jake Elliott *

Zack Hocker lol 

Caleb Sturgis 

Dustin Hopkins *

Randy Bullock *

Greg Zuerlein *

Blair Walsh 

David Buehler 

Ryan Succop *

So of 13 drafted. 9 are starting nfl kickers, most are really good too 

You got another position in the fifth round or later with a 70% hit rate. I'm all ears 

[Guest]

These are the QB's currently in the Pro Football Hall of Fame (excluding the 2021 Class) by Draft Position

1st Round

Sammy Baugh, Sid Luckman, Otto Graham, Bobby Layne, YA title, Len Dawson, Joe Namath, Bob Griese, Terry Bradshaw, John Elway Jim Kelly, Dan Marino, Steve Young, Troy Aikman

2nd Round

Ace Parker, Ken Stabler, Brett Favre

3rd Round

Fran Tarkenton, Dan Fouts, Joe Montana

4th Round

Norm Van Brocklin, Sonny Jurgenson

5th Round

Bob Waterfield

9th Round

John Unitas

10th Round

Roger Staubach

12th Round

George Blanda

17th Round

Bart Starr

Free Agent

Warren Moon, Kurt Warner

The evidence shows that if you want a great quarterback to lead your team, you need to get him in the 1st round.  Still, as of 2020, there were only 14 1st round quarterbacks in 100 years of NFL history to make it to the Hall of Fame. 

[bcb1213]

2 minutes ago, Virginia Viking said:

These are the QB's currently in the Pro Football Hall of Fame (excluding the 2021 Class) by Draft Position

1st Round

Sammy Baugh, Sid Luckman, Otto Graham, Bobby Layne, YA title, Len Dawson, Joe Namath, Bob Griese, Terry Bradshaw, John Elway Jim Kelly, Dan Marino, Steve Young, Troy Aikman

2nd Round

Ace Parker, Ken Stabler, Brett Favre

3rd Round

Fran Tarkenton, Dan Fouts, Joe Montana

4th Round

Norm Van Brocklin, Sonny Jurgenson

5th Round

Bob Waterfield

9th Round

John Unitas

10th Round

Roger Staubach

12th Round

George Blanda

17th Round

Bart Starr

Free Agent

Warren Moon, Kurt Warner

The evidence shows that if you want a great quarterback to lead your team, you need to get him in the 1st round.  Still, as of 2020, there were only 14 1st round quarterbacks in 100 years of NFL history to make it to the Hall of Fame. 

It's actually 14-14 just looking at your numbers.  But Peyton will move that to 15-14 in favor of first round 

[RpMc]

1 minute ago, bcb1213 said:

14 qb were drafted top five between 2009 and 2018.  Only one is with their drafted team (baker Mayfield). Not bust rate Stat,  just something I found 

 

Every Kicker selected fifth round or later  2009-2018 

Jason Sanders *

Daniel Carlson  *

Harrison butker*

Zane Gonzales *

Jake Elliott *

Zack Hocker lol 

Caleb Sturgis 

Dustin Hopkins *

Randy Bullock *

Greg Zuerlein *

Blair Walsh 

David Buehler 

Ryan Succop *

So of 13 drafted. 9 are starting nfl kickers, most are really good too 

You got another position in the fifth round or later with a 70% hit rate. I'm all ears 

You realize that Carlson, Butker, Gonzalez, Elliot, Hopkins, and Bullock didn't even make it beyond year three with the team that drafted them right?

If you're advocating for signing a drafted kicker that's been cut by their previous team, I'm all for that.

[bcb1213]

Just now, RpMc said:

You realize that Carlson, Butker, Gonzalez, Elliot, Hopkins, and Bullock didn't even make it beyond year three with the team that drafted them right?

If you're advocating for signing a drafted kicker that's been cut by their previous team, I'm all for that.

Please see note on top five qb in my post. They don't either. 

Maybe their original team lost patience for whatever reason. There is no debating they are solid kickers 

[RpMc]

Just now, bcb1213 said:

Please see note on top five qb in my post. They don't either. 

Maybe their original team lost patience for whatever reason. There is no debating they are solid kickers 

There's also no debating that it didn't work out for the team that drafted them... which is what I'm arguing against.