Dolphins trade 3rd overall pick to SF

[CWood21]

58 minutes ago, Forge said:

It's a really interesting spot for them because if you have a shot at a franchise guy, you shouldn't waste it...but at the same time even if they take a QB, they are wasting one of the most valuable components of drafting a guy - having the rookie deal. I'd have to double check, but they have *heavy* dead money tied into Matt Ryan for the next three years regardless of whether or not they have him on the roster (he's uncuttable / untradeable this year, I'm pretty sure). Basically wasting 3 out of  years of the super cost controlled portion of the contract is rough. 

According to OTC, they save ~$8M by trading Matt Ryan next offseason.  In a best case scenario, Atlanta takes their QBOTF at 4 while Matt Ryan and the Falcons have an amazing season and they flip him next offseason for even more than what Matthew Stafford got.

[Dr A W Niloc]

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Denver COULD stick with Locke.. but I think he's awful.. I'd certainly draft one of the top 5 guys to replace him.

     As long as it doesn't involving trading up, spending a top 16 draft pick to replace a known failure with a QB4 might make some sense but only if the fit is perfect, the receivers sure-handed, the coaching strong, and the General Manager on his fourth cocktail.  

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Same with Carolina.. Bridgewater is meh at best, if you can get Lance / Jones.. you make that pick

      Using a top 8 pick to replace a QB who was meh (as opposed to awful) without the team's only offensive threat in the line-up for 13 games?  Carolina will not be taking a QB, at least not after the top three are gone.  Teddy will be given one more chance.

     Every March, NFL commenters and mockers predict 5 or 6 "franchise" QBs will go in the top 16.  On the last six Draft Days this resulted in 2 QBs twice, 3 QBs thrice, and four QBs once.  Twelve (i.e. two per year) of those seventeen, including Sam Darnold, were more than spot starters in 2020. 

     As you know, historically and on average, the fourth best rookie taken at any position doesn't finish in the top 32 at the pro level.

[Dr A W Niloc]

2 hours ago, CWood21 said:

As for Miami, if they wanted Sewell they would have stayed at 3 and guaranteed they would have taken him.

 

      Questionable premise and conclusion. 

      Before this trade the Jets, after reviewing their experiences with QB drafts, might well have taken Sewell, in part to avoid Miami wrapping up third place in the AFC-East by doing so. 

     Also, the fact that I might be willing to risk a player by collecting a 1st round pick and other sundries, still hoping I might get him at #6, in no way suggests I don't want him. 

     It just means I'm optimistic.  Or greedy.

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I get you're a probably a Dolphins fan, but I think you're either vastly overrating Sewell or vastly underrating Tunsil here.

      As a Fantasy footballer I'm a fan of all 32 teams during the off-season, at least. 

      As for Sewell and Tunsil, even if they were equals--which no one suggests is the case--it's a 3-for-one sale.  Or is it 4-for-1 now?

[CWood21]

1 minute ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

Questionable premise and conclusion. 

      Before this trade the Jets, after reviewing their experiences with QB drafts, might well have taken Sewell, in part to avoid Miami wrapping up third place in the AFC-East by doing so. 

     Also, the fact that I might be willing to risk a player by collecting a 1st round pick and other sundries, still hoping I might get him at #6, in no way suggests I don't want him. 

     It just means I'm optimistic.  Or greedy.

Probably the latter.  It's the same argument I had with Lions' fans last year that were absolutely convinced they were going to be able to trade down and get a HAUL while still getting their guy (Jeff Okudah) from either Miami or LA Chargers.  You don't trade down for a boatload of picks, and still anticipate getting your guy.  It's not a realistic expectation to make.  Which is why you saw the Dolphins trade back up to 6.  They've essentially said they have a guy (or guys) they were willing to take at 3, but know that at least ONE of them will still be on the board at 6.  I mean, between the Falcons and Bengals who is likely to take Pitts?  Maybe the Falcons.  Who is likely to take Smith?  Probably neither.  Who is likely to take Chase?  Maybe the Bengals.  They're "effectively" guaranteed either Kyle Pitts or JaMarr Chase IMO.  And even in a worst case scenario, they're going to see either Penei Sewell or DeVonta Smith on the board.  Add netting a 3rd round pick next year AND a FRP in 2023 is a pretty good haul for only moving down 3 spots.

And it's really not a questionable premise or conclusion that both Atlanta AND Cincinnati have motivation to take Sewell.

5 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

As for Sewell and Tunsil, even if they were equals--which no one suggests is the case--it's a 3-for-one sale.  Or is it 4-for-1 now?

But you're making the HUGE assumption that Sewell is who we think he is.  If he isn't who we think he is, you turned a top 3 LT into a bust and whatever else you manage to scrap out of the draft picks.  You're trying to look at this in a vacuum with only one possible outcome and painting that picture as the entirety.

[Xenos]

On 3/26/2021 at 11:30 PM, NYRaider said:

FWIW Michael Lombardi thinks Mac Jones will be the pick at #3.

Now I know for certain that the Niners won’t pick Mac Jones.

[NYRaider]

Just now, Xenos said:

Now I know for certain that the Niners won’t pick Mac Jones.

Yeah, I think they go Trey Lance.

[49ersfan]

Just now, NYRaider said:

Yeah, I think they go Trey Lance.

Mike Lombardi has been back and forth. The tweet yesterday said Lance. The tweet today says Jones. He's just guessing and now he gets to say he was right in either scenario (unless they take Fields)

 

[FrantikRam]

2 hours ago, .Buzz said:

MVP level? What has Stafford done to think that will be the case in the past several years outside of hoping McVay works his magic?

The whole point is they gave more value in the totality of the deal imo for 3 than they offered (or apparently didn't)/the Lions got for Stafford. This has nothing to do with a fans perspective/our value on a rookie versus Stafford.

 

I realize they gave up more for the 3rd overall pick but they still preferred Stafford first. 

FWIW I was only comparing the value because earlier in this thread some posters were saying Goff is an average QB, which I disagree with. You're right about the contract playing a part as well, although I'd point out that Wentz was worse than Goff last year, has the same contract and may fetch more than a first round pick.

And yep - McVays magic, coupled with the run game and the defense which will give him a lot of opportunities. Will also be the best WR group he's had in 5 years.

[Forge]

2 hours ago, CWood21 said:

According to OTC, they save ~$8M by trading Matt Ryan next offseason.  In a best case scenario, Atlanta takes their QBOTF at 4 while Matt Ryan and the Falcons have an amazing season and they flip him next offseason for even more than what Matthew Stafford got.

Oh okay, yeah. I thought they were underwater on the deal with the recent restructure. That's not that bad. They are still blowing through two years of hte rookie deal, which isn't ideal, but they can completely have him off the books by 2023 and honestly, a first year starter is going to be adjusting in 2022 anyway, so not like you were likely going anywhere anyway. 

[NYRaider]

34 minutes ago, 49ersfan said:

Mike Lombardi has been back and forth. The tweet yesterday said Lance. The tweet today says Jones. He's just guessing and now he gets to say he was right in either scenario (unless they take Fields)

If the 49ers are really going to keep Jimmy G, I think Lance makes the most sense. He has the tools but needs a redshirt year. 

[NYRaider]

44 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

 I mean, between the Falcons and Bengals who is likely to take Pitts?  Maybe the Falcons.  Who is likely to take Smith?  Probably neither.  Who is likely to take Chase?  Maybe the Bengals.  They're "effectively" guaranteed either Kyle Pitts or JaMarr Chase IMO.  And even in a worst case scenario, they're going to see either Penei Sewell or DeVonta Smith on the board.  Add netting a 3rd round pick next year AND a FRP in 2023 is a pretty good haul for only moving down 3 spots.

Reportedly Joe Burrow has been pushing hard for the Bengals to take Chase if he's there at #5. With Parker/Fuller on the roster I'd assume that the Dolphins main target is Pitts. 

[.Buzz]

49 minutes ago, FrantikRam said:

 

I realize they gave up more for the 3rd overall pick but they still preferred Stafford first. 

FWIW I was only comparing the value because earlier in this thread some posters were saying Goff is an average QB, which I disagree with. You're right about the contract playing a part as well, although I'd point out that Wentz was worse than Goff last year, has the same contract and may fetch more than a first round pick.

And yep - McVays magic, coupled with the run game and the defense which will give him a lot of opportunities. Will also be the best WR group he's had in 5 years.

How do you figure that they preferred Stafford? If they had, they would've clearly gotten him. That's the whole point, they offered 3 1's (including a top 12 pick this year). Stafford fetched 2 1sts in the future and Goff. Wentz also got an offer from a team thats HC coached him during his MVP type season. Doesn't even begin to talk about their desperation for a warm body back there with where they sit in the draft/what moving up would cost in the draft as we just saw.

 

Stafford has also had serious injury issues and is 32 years old. He probably will be better than he was in Detroit with improved weapons/scheme, but he hasn't been close to that level. So I'd say those are pretty overwhelming expectations.

[Scoundrel]

1 hour ago, 49ersfan said:

Mike Lombardi has been back and forth. The tweet yesterday said Lance. The tweet today says Jones. He's just guessing and now he gets to say he was right in either scenario (unless they take Fields)

 

Like Chris Simms when he changes his QB rankings. 

[TecmoSuperJoe]

3 hours ago, 49ersfan said:

If Tua flops but the rest of the team is talented enough to get them to a 9-7, 10-6 type record, then the Dolphins will be the team offering multiple 1st's for the top QB prospect or one of Wilson/Watson next offseason, IMO. 

Obviously having the chance at so many premium prospects is great, but its all dependent on the QB. Make or break year for Tua. It wasn't the best rookie year but having continuity in the Dolphins scheme & likely a top weapon like Chase or Pitts will be a big help for him 

It's make or break for Tua in his second year? When Allen just broke out in his third?

[CWood21]

34 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Reportedly Joe Burrow has been pushing hard for the Bengals to take Chase if he's there at #5. With Parker/Fuller on the roster I'd assume that the Dolphins main target is Pitts. 

It wouldn't surprise me if Burrow was lobbying for Chase.  If he wasn't, I'd be a bit concerned.  Sewell is the logical choice, Chase is the heart choice.  IF the Bengals are truly about making sure Joe Burrow succeeds, I don't see how picking Chase over Sewell is the answer.