Dolphins trade 3rd overall pick to SF

[N4L]

7 hours ago, BucsDraftGeek47 said:

Is there an article on this? Lol id love to hear the Jets side

Jets wont ever admit it lol

It would make them look so so bad. 

[pwny]

13 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said:

Did SF expect Atlanta to take a QB then? I feel like they must have, if they leapt them. Why not trade for 4th? Miami wasn't going QB, clearly, otherwise they wouldn't have traded

 

We could have QB 1,2,3,4...

Or they saw the Dolphins being willing to trade down and figured that it was likely someone else could go up to #3 and take their guy in front of them. Or the Dolphins were asking for the same thing as the Falcons, so going a spot higher made sense. 

[Xenos]

On 3/29/2021 at 11:27 AM, Fresh Prince said:

People keep missing this. Makes no sense to smoke screen.

Albert Breer is implying that they haven’t yet made a choice amongst Fields, Jones, and Lance yet. This is why they traded up a month early. It allows them time to more carefully drill into who they want after Wilson is gone.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2021/03/29/mmqb-inside-49ers-dolphins-trade-nfl-draft
 

Quote

San Francisco now gets a month to dig deep into Lance, Fields and Jones (and even Wilson, though he’ll likely be off the table for the Niners), max out on allowable Zoom meetings with each without having to worry about covering their tracks, and talk to everyone around those guys to get the best feel for who they’re most comfortable tying the franchise’s future to. They’ll also have time to see if developments on the veteran market might change anything on Garoppolo—or allow for a Godfather offer for him to come.

 

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, Xenos said:

Albert Breer shares the story behind the big trade. And yes there was essentially a three way trade work simultaneously with the Dolphins, Niners, and Eagles.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2021/03/29/mmqb-inside-49ers-dolphins-trade-nfl-draft
 

 

I don't know how anyone thinks that Grier somehow "panicked" and moved back up to 6 from 12.   The timing very clearly supports the notion that Miami only wanted to move back so many spots - so Grier got creative in getting the 2 deals done, in essence making it a 3-team trade.    There's at least a 60-40 chance they get to still pick their guy, and they collected an extra 1st & 3rd in the process.    And they're specifically banking on finishing higher than SF, so they move up with the pick swap in 2022.     The whole sequence was planned, not reactive.

[49ersfan]

28 minutes ago, Xenos said:

Albert Breer is implying that they haven’t yet made a choice amongst Fields, Jones, and Lance yet. This is why they traded up a month early. It allows them time to more carefully drill into who they want after Wilson is gone.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2021/03/29/mmqb-inside-49ers-dolphins-trade-nfl-draft
 

 

I'd be very surprised if the decision isn't already made. However, there's no upside in admitting who their pick is.

My GUESS is their QB rankings are Lawrence, Wilson, Fields. 

 

[Forge]

37 minutes ago, Xenos said:

Albert Breer is implying that they haven’t yet made a choice amongst Fields, Jones, and Lance yet. This is why they traded up a month early. It allows them time to more carefully drill into who they want after Wilson is gone.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2021/03/29/mmqb-inside-49ers-dolphins-trade-nfl-draft
 

 

I'd guess that they have made their choice. I would be really surprise if it's really an internal debate at this point. People keep saying that there are no reasons to smoke screen but fail to acknowledge that there's no reason not to smoke screen. 

[Justone2]

58 minutes ago, N4L said:

Jets wont ever admit it lol

It would make them look so so bad. 

Depends on if they had Baker actually higher rated and got stuck with Darnold or if they where under the assumption there was no way they would get Darnold so expected the second best in Baker. 

 

Would be the same as if the Jets decide to go Fields and we get Wilson. Did we move up for Wilson? Probably not because we expected the Jets to take him but he may be higher on our board.

[Xenos]

15 minutes ago, Justone2 said:

Depends on if they had Baker actually higher rated and got stuck with Darnold or if they where under the assumption there was no way they would get Darnold so expected the second best in Baker. 

 

Would be the same as if the Jets decide to go Fields and we get Wilson. Did we move up for Wilson? Probably not because we expected the Jets to take him but he may be higher on our board.

I think this is what happened. It was always close between Darnold and Baker.

[Fresh Prince]

1 hour ago, 49ersfan said:

I'd be very surprised if the decision isn't already made. However, there's no upside in admitting who their pick is.

My GUESS is their QB rankings are Lawrence, Wilson, Fields. 

 

Jets haven’t officially announced who they’re going with so on the off chance they don’t pick Wilson, SF can’t say who they’re taking to then take Wilson.

[Awsi Dooger]

2 hours ago, Broncofan said:

I don't know how anyone thinks that Grier somehow "panicked" and moved back up to 6 from 12.   The timing very clearly supports the notion that Miami only wanted to move back so many spots - so Grier got creative in getting the 2 deals done, in essence making it a 3-team trade.    There's at least a 60-40 chance they get to still pick their guy, and they collected an extra 1st & 3rd in the process.    And they're specifically banking on finishing higher than SF, so they move up with the pick swap in 2022.     The whole sequence was planned, not reactive.

You just described the problem from a Dolphins standpoint. Grier planned that cotillion step back, with no clue toward situational influence and therefore value. If quarterbacks figure to flood the top of the draft, and you are sitting there at #3, you've got to be a rank fool to bail out early. pwny had it correct...the Dolphins at 3 were probably asking for the same thing as the Falcons at 4. That's been my frustration since the two deals were made. I've mentioned it on several sites. It's like the Dolphins never owned the 3 pick at all. Grier received compensation more equivalent to the 4 pick, given the situational variables at play.

And he gave himself no chance whatsoever at premium return given a late bidding war. Grier essentially wagered that Wilson was locked into the Jets at 2 and the other quarterbacks would see their stock fall before draft day. As a gambler I have no respect for Grier whatsoever. There were two separate variables, given the likelihood that the Dolphins would trade down: Making the most of the trade compensation, and then making the most of the pick. Grier butchered the first part because he was so obsessed with the second part, making sure he could do the dance steps to get exactly to 6 or thereabouts for a wide receiver or Pitts.

A sharp general manager would have valued uncertainty, when there was at least an 80% chance that the uncertainty would play out in your favor. Yes, it's possible the Dolphins could have gotten stuck at 3. Far more likely something would break to Miami's advantage, like the Jets passing on Wilson, or certain teams increasingly mesmerized by a certain quarterback and willing to pay. 

If the Dolphins were going to make that deal with the 49ers it should have included San Francisco's second round pick also. Miami came up one pick shy if you're going to play it safe. If they had that pick they might have been able to move back up to 6 without giving up the 2022 first to the Eagles. 

#3 was worth more than Grier realized. That's the bottom line. Just because he doesn't have high grades on guys like Jones or Fields or Lance doesn't mean other teams won't covet them. You've got very aggressive guys looking for a quarterback. Matt Rhule didn't enter this league to sit around at .500 level.

Edited March 31, 2021 by Awsi Dooger

[FinSting]

Relieved the deal was done early, instead of going into the draft with uncertainty. The Fins used a 1st and 2nd last year on starting offensive tackles. If they'd used #3 this year for *another* offensive tackle with Sewell I would've been F-bombing like a MF-er. 

Get a game-breaker at 6 and let's go. 

Good luck Niners with the QB choice. This could work out great for everyone, including Philly. 

 

[Broncofan]

3 hours ago, Awsi Dooger said:

You just described the problem from a Dolphins standpoint. Grier planned that cotillion step back, with no clue toward situational influence and therefore value. If quarterbacks figure to flood the top of the draft, and you are sitting there at #3, you've got to be a rank fool to bail out early. pwny had it correct...the Dolphins at 3 were probably asking for the same thing as the Falcons at 4. That's been my frustration since the two deals were made. I've mentioned it on several sites. It's like the Dolphins never owned the 3 pick at all. Grier received compensation more equivalent to the 4 pick, given the situational variables at play.

And he gave himself no chance whatsoever at premium return given a late bidding war. Grier essentially wagered that Wilson was locked into the Jets at 2 and the other quarterbacks would see their stock fall before draft day. As a gambler I have no respect for Grier whatsoever. There were two separate variables, given the likelihood that the Dolphins would trade down: Making the most of the trade compensation, and then making the most of the pick. Grier butchered the first part because he was so obsessed with the second part, making sure he could do the dance steps to get exactly to 6 or thereabouts for a wide receiver or Pitts.

A sharp general manager would have valued uncertainty, when there was at least an 80% chance that the uncertainty would play out in your favor. Yes, it's possible the Dolphins could have gotten stuck at 3. Far more likely something would break to Miami's advantage, like the Jets passing on Wilson, or certain teams increasingly mesmerized by a certain quarterback and willing to pay. 

If the Dolphins were going to make that deal with the 49ers it should have included San Francisco's second round pick also. Miami came up one pick shy if you're going to play it safe. If they had that pick they might have been able to move back up to 6 without giving up the 2022 first to the Eagles. 

#3 was worth more than Grier realized. That's the bottom line. Just because he doesn't have high grades on guys like Jones or Fields or Lance doesn't mean other teams won't covet them. You've got very aggressive guys looking for a quarterback. Matt Rhule didn't enter this league to sit around at .500 level.

Agree to disagree.   Grier likely got the guy he wanted and gets an extra first and a third - and he bet on his team finishing better than SF next year, in which case he moves up in 2022.  It's a win-win.   The fact the deals went down so quickly supports the idea this was orchestrated, not your far-fetched notion that he panicked and then suddenly veered back.     

Grier has done an amazing job at rebuilding the Dolphins, they're at least 1 year ahead of scheduling - but you're calling him out for not being sharp.    Man, that's a big stretch.

Edited March 31, 2021 by Broncofan

[49erurtaza]

5 hours ago, Forge said:

I'd guess that they have made their choice. I would be really surprise if it's really an internal debate at this point. People keep saying that there are no reasons to smoke screen but fail to acknowledge that there's no reason not to smoke screen. 

This, my guess is They want to let the other QBs available convince them otherwise. There doing what they should do which is do there due diligence on all the QBs available. 

[Forge]

2 minutes ago, 49erurtaza said:

This, my guess is They want to let the other QBs available convince them otherwise. There doing what they should do which is do there due diligence on all the QBs available. 

Yep. I don't want to say that it's completely pointless...definitely some due diligence type stuff. Someone can always throw out a huge offer to us that we can't refuse, or we may just want to have price points in mind for what it would take to move off a player and stuff like that. 

[N4L]

18 hours ago, Yin-Yang said:

Starting to think it’s Fields. 

It fits into the “Kyle’s smoke screening with Mac” idea too. Only team that could possibly jump them to the NYJ pick is Atlanta, IMO. Jets would still get a QB (possibly Wilson, if Atlanta/SF aren’t keen on him) and get a haul for trading back. With rumors out there that the Eagles only would’ve moved up for Wilson (thus saying Wilson is a foregone conclusion) and SF saying they like Mac (smokescreen), takes any idea of trading up for Fields out of the forefront. 

Probably just overthinking it, but it’s the offseason....

Its plausible, but the same string of logic can be applied to Lance. So I dont think it tips our hand either way (only that it wont be [edit] mac jones lol)

Don't circumvent the language barrier.

- ET

It doesnt matter who the niners are targeting, the point is that no one else knows. I do think we have a specific guy in mind that is not probably not Wilson or Lawrence. 

I dont think we specifically targeted the Falcons with these rumos, it was just - anyone who could trade up with the Jets. We dont want to get jumped by anyone. 

Until the jets trade sam darnold, you really cant rule anything out. They ultimately could decide that it would be better to get additional future draft capital, knowing they will have the ammo to do whatever they want in the following seasons, and that it may take them another year or two to stop picking in the top 10. Essentially, they may decide that they will have other opportunities to draft a QB this high again. Sure, the most likely scenario is that they draft a QB at 2, but that isnt a done deal until Sam is traded. I am sure they have talked to a bunch of teams about him, but are waiting to see what kind of offers they get for #2 (and for him) before the draft. Both options will be weighed. 

Also, one thing you need to remember - its not that the jets hired Saleh, its that they hired Mike LeFleur and that most, if not all of their offensive staff used to work for Kyle last year. So if word gets out that the niners like a specific player, there may be temptation for the jets to change their mind and copy their former boss' homework, or at least, let it influence their decision somehow. 

The jets may have a hunch of what KS will do, but he didnt start scouting these guys until January, and by then Saleh and LeFleur were already gone. I dont think the jets told the 49ers their plans for #2, and I dont think the niners want the Jets to know what their plan is. We need to continue to play poker with everyone, not just the teams behind us - the jets included