3rd Overall Pick - Trey Lance vs Justin Fields (with bonus third poll option)

[49ersfan]

23 minutes ago, TecmoSuperJoe said:

 

I could see Shanny wanting to take on the challenge of making this guy a star.

[J-ALL-DAY]

I don't see why King would switch off of Jones. He's not getting solid certainty one way or another. The sources he's had thinking it will be Jones aren't likely to change their opinion. What he's going to do is hedge the prediction saying "I would not be surprised if they go Fields or Lance here" or something to that extent. 

This year in particular there is no need to get worked up by these predictions. As some are now saying Fields, it is clear agents are the biggest source of information swaying the opinions. 

[Forge]

18 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

I don't see why King would switch off of Jones. He's not getting solid certainty one way or another. The sources he's had thinking it will be Jones aren't likely to change their opinion. What he's going to do is hedge the prediction saying "I would not be surprised if they go Fields or Lance here" or something to that extent. 

This year in particular there is no need to get worked up by these predictions. As some are now saying Fields, it is clear agents are the biggest source of information swaying the opinions. 

I don't think he's used, or at least referred, to sources yet. I'd have to go back and read, but I'm pretty sure he's been very specific that it's just his opinion.

In the past with  kinlaw and mcg, he's started using sources for actual reporting about 10 days before. If he just keeps it as his opinion, then he likely hasn't heard anything

[Forge]

24 minutes ago, 49ersfan said:

I could see Shanny wanting to take on the challenge of making this guy a star.

So that was something Biderman said that I hadn't thought about and found interesting. I've called out the possibility that Shanny is arrogant enough to think that he just needs a guy to drop into his system that is competent and that he wants his system to be a star, but Biderman brought up the notion that the arrogance works another way as well: that he's good enough to turn a lump of clay into a superstar QB. A lump of clay is pretty much exactly what Lance is. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

6 minutes ago, Forge said:

I don't think he's used, or at least referred, to sources yet. I'd have to go back and read, but I'm pretty sure he's been very specific that it's just his opinion.

In the past with  kinlaw and mcg, he's started using sources for actual reporting about 10 days before. If he just keeps it as his opinion, then he likely hasn't heard anything

His opinion isn't just random though. It's what he is hearing. That's how most of these guys operate. Maiocco's initial actual opinion was Fields and then his sources said Jones and then he completely flipped. Peter King has mentioned on a radio spot that people around the league think it will be Jones. Kiper mocked Fields to the Niners or said he would be the pick if he was the GM but later on said he's going Jones because that is what he is being told will happen. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

7 minutes ago, Forge said:

So that was something Biderman said that I hadn't thought about and found interesting. I've called out the possibility that Shanny is arrogant enough to think that he just needs a guy to drop into his system that is competent and that he wants his system to be a star, but Biderman brought up the notion that the arrogance works another way as well: that he's good enough to turn a lump of clay into a superstar QB. A lump of clay is pretty much exactly what Lance is. 

I've thought pretty much the same way all along that he will take Lance since he is the rawest of them of all and he can coach him up to be the player he wants him to be. You can't do that with Jones or Fields. Lance is super young with little playing experience so he is the one most likely to be able to change his game or certain parts of his game. 

He's also really freaking talented. 

[Forge]

3 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

I've thought pretty much the same way all along that he will take Lance since he is the rawest of them of all and he can coach him up to be the player he wants him to be. You can't do that with Jones or Fields. Lance is super young with little playing experience so he is the one most likely to be able to change his game or certain parts of his game. 

He's also really freaking talented. 

So I keep kicking around this idea of how I would treat Trey Lance. He needs reps and throws, point blank. Experience. So I kept thinking if we drafted him, I would totally have him play *all* of the preseason this year. Every snap,, every throw. But at the same time, I'm wondering if that wouldn't get him too used to just bland, vanilla defenses and may screw him up as well. Not really sure how to treat that. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

4 minutes ago, Forge said:

So I keep kicking around this idea of how I would treat Trey Lance. He needs reps and throws, point blank. Experience. So I kept thinking if we drafted him, I would totally have him play *all* of the preseason this year. Every snap,, every throw. But at the same time, I'm wondering if that wouldn't get him too used to just bland, vanilla defenses and may screw him up as well. Not really sure how to treat that. 

You get him majority of the preseason work (if there is one) and may even sprinkle in some plays during the regular season with him. Any time there is a blow out one way or another, you bring him in. But honestly more then playing experience, he will need to sit and learn the NFL defenses and develop. Then when it is his time to go in year two, you adjust to the level he is at. If Shanny doesn't think he is quite ready for the playbook to open then you dumb it down some and take advantage of his dual threat ability. But I suspect by year two he's going to be really good where ever he ends up at. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

16 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

His opinion isn't just random though. It's what he is hearing. That's how most of these guys operate. Maiocco's initial actual opinion was Fields and then his sources said Jones and then he completely flipped. Peter King has mentioned on a radio spot that people around the league think it will be Jones. Kiper mocked Fields to the Niners or said he would be the pick if he was the GM but later on said he's going Jones because that is what he is being told will happen. 

Just to expand on this, King isn't someone who studies college prospects. So when he does mock drafts or gives his opinions, it is off what he is hearing. Guys like Kiper/McShay mix in both actual game tape and what they are hearing. King? No chance. This is why when they mention certain players, it is not their personal opinion off breaking game film down but rather what the word on the street is. 

[Forge]

1 minute ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

You get him majority of the preseason work (if there is one) and may even sprinkle in some plays during the regular season with him. Any time there is a blow out one way or another, you bring him in. But honestly more then playing experience, he will need to sit and learn the NFL defenses and develop. Then when it is his time to go in year two, you adjust to the level he is at. If Shanny doesn't think he is quite ready for the playbook to open then you dumb it down some and take advantage of his dual threat ability. But I suspect by year two he's going to be really good where ever he ends up at. 

Supposedly one of the things that he does now is study NFL defenses on film in his down time. People are said to really love his stuff off the field. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

4 minutes ago, Forge said:

Supposedly one of the things that he does now is study NFL defenses on film in his down time. People are said to really love his stuff off the field. 

Don't doubt it one bit. After the one lone game, he pretty much trained with Avery and other pro guys the rest of the year. Him going to Denver would be really fun. Sit for one year and then unleash him with those weapons? Aside from us, that would be his best spot. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

Haberman and Middlekauff both are leaning Lance as well. 

Call me crazy, but I don't think Shanny/Lynch 100% knew who they wanted when they traded up with Miami. People in the media think that's blasphemy and York would have never signed off on that but I disagree. I think York has FULL trust in those two and let's those guys roll. I do think they may have had a favorite or two but nothing was a done deal. At first I thought Shanny had his guy from the beginning but now I'm of the opinion no final decision was made. Because can you make a final decision without seeing the QBs in person and talking to them? 

Also, when exactly did they talk to Fields/Lance camps and get them to agree to a 2nd pro day. They were confident when at Alabama's pro day that those two would have another pro day. They weren't going to tip their hand before the trade but it must have happened fairly quickly after the trade. 

[49erurtaza]

@Forgemight want to hedge your bet.

[49erurtaza]

9 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Haberman and Middlekauff both are leaning Lance as well. 

Call me crazy, but I don't think Shanny/Lynch 100% knew who they wanted when they traded up with Miami. People in the media think that's blasphemy and York would have never signed off on that but I disagree. I think York has FULL trust in those two and let's those guys roll. I do think they may have had a favorite or two but nothing was a done deal. At first I thought Shanny had his guy from the beginning but now I'm of the opinion no final decision was made. Because can you make a final decision without seeing the QBs in person and talking to them? 

Also, when exactly did they talk to Fields/Lance camps and get them to agree to a 2nd pro day. They were confident when at Alabama's pro day that those two would have another pro day. They weren't going to tip their hand before the trade but it must have happened fairly quickly after the trade. 

Is it possible they where ok with Mac but wanted to do a deep dive on Fields and Lance if they fell in love they go with one of them or if they didn't impress or convince them they go Mac as the safety net. 

Edited April 19, 2021 by 49erurtaza

[Forge]

6 minutes ago, 49erurtaza said:

@Forgemight want to hedge your bet.

I am