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3rd Overall Pick - Trey Lance vs Justin Fields (with bonus third poll option)


N4L

Which QB?  

90 members have voted

  1. 1. Which QB do you want the niners to draft?

    • Trey Lance
      13
    • Justin Fields
      48
    • Neither, I would rather shoot N4L in the face with a shotgun by drafting Mac Jones
      29
  2. 2. Should we keep Garoppolo for 2021

    • Yes
      62
    • No
      26

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  • Poll closed on 04/30/2021 at 01:00 AM

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Just now, 49erurtaza said:

If by draft day the buzz is still Mac then i will buy in but for now its alot nothing for me. But i get it we could be wrong this entire time.

I'm now mainly annoyed because I'd like to flip my wagers to Lance +500 with a Fields hedge, but I can't do it because it really seems like Mac is the bet. 

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3 hours ago, Forge said:

So now the question I have is do I want to flip the hedge LOL. 

So basically, when i was going to hedge Lance, the idea was to slightly dilute my Fields wager. A couple hundred on Lance would basically given me a break even on a Lance selection, but still give me +210 on Fields. 

But Lance is currently +500. Now I can flip the script...place more money on Lance than I did Fields and if Fields is the pick, he would break me even. The current money on Fields at +275 would be about 4K. 4K at +500 nets me 20K. Less my original Fields bet too. 

@N4L, your thoughts? 

This makes sense to me. I am in. Maybe we leave a little profit on the fields side of the equation as well? +500 are great odds. 

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Just now, N4L said:

This makes sense to me. I am in. Maybe we leave a little profit on the fields side of the equation as well? +500 are great odds. 

I've been thinking about it the last two hours...I don't think I can put that type of exposure down against a Mac selection which seems likely at this point. I want to...I'd rather hedge a Lance bet at +500 with the winning share of a Fields bet and potentially smash 5 figures on the W, but seems very wasteful more than anything. 

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I will say one thing, it's going to be hilarious to see Niners twitter reaction as they are all in on Fields if they take Jones. Akash and Javi especially are going to try to backtrack but at least Javi is giving Lance a 20% chance of being selected lol. 

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1 minute ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

I will say one thing, it's going to be hilarious to see Niners twitter reaction as they are all in on Fields if they take Jones. Akash and Javi especially are going to try to backtrack but at least Javi is giving Lance a 20% chance of being selected lol. 

This has been an oft stated stance from me since this began lol. Watching the twitter meltdown will be really fun. Now that I'm more at peace with the selection being mac since I get to process it earlier, it makes me giggle even more. Either way, I'm going to get to have some fun and at least with the Mac selection, his fate isn't written in stone. I just feel like it is lol. But I've been wrong many times before and undoubtedly will again in the future. 

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9 minutes ago, Forge said:

I've been thinking about it the last two hours...I don't think I can put that type of exposure down against a Mac selection which seems likely at this point. I want to...I'd rather hedge a Lance bet at +500 with the winning share of a Fields bet and potentially smash 5 figures on the W, but seems very wasteful more than anything. 

yeah, I think it would be wise to take a shot on lance at +500. That was our original plan and it seems like hes just as likely as fields at this point. 

I am choosing to live in denial about Mac jones. 

So maybe we do 50% of our fields bet on Lance? 

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4 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

PFF, mostly.  Won't bore you with the numbers but the bottom line is that there is a huge drop after third.

PFF is not the source of the talk. He was asking for the reporters sources, I believe. 

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5 minutes ago, sherm said:

Another reason teams will over think the pick. 

They already knew, so I don't think it impacts anything from here on out, but could be one of the reasons we heard about so much variance in his draft stock. 

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5 minutes ago, 49erurtaza said:

Yes, for me its ether coming from Macs team or coming from us.

The fact that Graziano is referencing people close to the situation and saying that a choice hasn't been made tells me it's not from Mac's camp. Doesn't mean that it's us, but I don't see how it's Mac's camp.  That wouldn't make any sense to me given that he's the favorite right now. 

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Just now, J-ALL-DAY said:

Conspiracy theory, Shanny knew the fans would hate this pick so he had it leaked out right off the bat so they could at least embrace for it and there would be less of a outcry once Mac is chosen lol. 

I know people have thrown that out for Trades made before the league year LOL 

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