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3rd Overall Pick - Trey Lance vs Justin Fields (with bonus third poll option)

N4L

By N4L
in San Francisco 49ers

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Which QB?  

90 members have voted

  1. 1. Which QB do you want the niners to draft?

    • Trey Lance
      13
    • Justin Fields
      48
    • Neither, I would rather shoot N4L in the face with a shotgun by drafting Mac Jones
      29

  2. 2. Should we keep Garoppolo for 2021

    • Yes
      62
    • No
      26

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  • Poll closed on 04/30/2021 at 01:00 AM

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Justone2

Justone2

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Forge said:

The thing is, and it's what I try to get through to people on twitter sometimes, is that it only has to make sense to *one* person. If this was a pick by committee, where Shanny / Peters / Waugh / Lynch and whatever scouts they prefer were making the selection, this pick would *never* be Jones. I simply don't believe that you can get a majority there. But it only has to make sense to shanny. That's not unreasonable. Look in this thread. We do have people who think Mac is the best option. I mean, I think it's an overwhelming minority of people en masse, but people who believe that Mac is a top 3 QB in this draft do exist. There's nothing that precludes Shanny from being one of the people. 

I like Jones the best but wouldn't spend anywhere close to what we did for him. If we had the third pick naturally or all three where there at 12 i think he would be my number one choice(i know its a weird way of thinking). With what we gave up give me a guy that is probably slightly lesser inside of what is called but has more ability outside of it. For me the only QB's i would have given up what we did for are Lawrence and Wilson. Mainly because while Fields sure is accurate in hitting his target he isn't the guy that will lead them to open air and while from every regular measure he is a smart kid the offense he ran doesn't get to showcase that so is he only booksmart or is he also "football" smart. For Lance i like everything i read on him in terms of the smarts and the responsibilites he had running a pretty NFL-like offense. But man the actual throwing of the ball just doesn't do it for me. 

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JIllg

JIllg

Posted
Posted
Just now, Dr A W Niloc said:

     We have a bingo!  Thank you!

     Leaving aside Justin's slow (135th) delivery and lack of escape dimension (25% of pressure resulting in sacks compared to Mac's 12.3--worst versus best among the top 4 QBs), why is Fields so good at completion% (3rd to Mac's 1st) but so bad in Yards After Catch?  Even if the reason were largely system (and the system not determined by the QB's limitations) why consider someone who doesn't/can't do something over someone whose mastery is so evident, even in the stats?

     No one mentioned "primary".  The one player (other than the center) who handles the ball on every player is certainly among those responsible for YAC.  Justin's receivers can get open and catch the ball but, again, there are no Yards After Catch. 

     As currently constituted, San Francisco is all about YAC.  Great defense, low risk offense.  Shanahan is looking at the same stats as we are, including the one that has Mac's ADoT more than a yard and half longer than Garoppolo's.  

     The facts speak for themselves but only in the last ten days have the Talking Heads and mockers begun to listen.  Same as 2018 with Mayfield.

Because the current Shanahan offense isn't a platonic ideal (or even Shanahan's own ideal). The lowering of the ADoT and continual focus on short passing and YAC is largely a recent phenomenon and (I would argue) a response to the limitations and skills of his recent quarterbacks. Matt Ryan had a much larger ADoT because he can drive the ball to all fields. Mac Jones's arm is not as strong as Ryan's. RGIII led the 4th highest scoring offense in the NFL with very few concepts we see now as his athleticism basically allowed for the offense to get consistent gains without having to bother with short passing game. Matt Schaub consistently had a much higher ADoT than we do currently. Focusing so heavily on maximizing the short passing game brings inevitable problems. In every game we've struggled offensively under Shanahan, people load the box and close down short window throws. Defenses that fail to adjust this way get punished. I can see Shanahan choosing Jones to continue to run the same offense as under Jimmy G with a touch more accuracy on deeper throws. I don't think it's the correct choice. It's a world of getting the best possible quarterbacks at endangering as much of the field at the same time for as long as possible and creating an offense that fits the skills that quarterback brings to the table. Mac Jones doesn't endanger enough of the field and he doesn't do it for very long because he doesn't extend plays. 

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Forge

Forge

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

That would probably be a valid argument IF Josh Dobbs had anywhere near the personal or team success that Mac Jones had.

I don't know that it's really ever a valid argument. You can always find people like that who fit your narrative. You want a big arm? Josh Freeman. You want athleticism? I offer Jake locker

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Dr A W Niloc

Dr A W Niloc

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, adamq said:

Again, you are all about the stats, so do you have any showing what Mac's look like when he isn't throwing to the Heisman winner?

You mean like Jaylen Waddle?  591 yards, 21.1 average, 4 TDs?  That kind of thing?

How bad do you think the 49er receivers will be?      
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adamq

adamq

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

You mean like Jaylen Waddle?  591 yards, 21.1 average, 4 TDs?  That kind of thing?

How bad do you think the 49er receivers will be?      

My point is, it's flawed to taunt Mac's YAC numbers compared to Field's when Jones is tossing the ball to elite after the catch receivers... Especially one who was good enough to win the Heisman

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