3rd Overall Pick - Trey Lance vs Justin Fields (with bonus third poll option)

[big9erfan]

3 hours ago, GW21 said:

To me the parts about throwing the ball sound like Justin Fields. The processing the field part could be Mac or Lance based on the reports. Idk I think Fields would process our offense just fine, but I don’t know their thought processes. Is this a trick question? I feel like the answer you are looking for is Lance. He’s been said to be very bright, came from a pro style offense, and obviously has a live arm. But I’ve also read that Fields is super bright, so who knows. I think you could tailor those comments to whomever - well except the effortless throwing and so fourth to Mac.

Just what I thought. When I read the first part I thought it's Jones. But then the part about he arm made me think Lance or Fields. Accuracy has to be part of the equation. Josh has shown that accuracy can be improved, but he's a really rare exception. Again though we can't be thinking these QBs as they are now are the finished products they are going to be. I expect it's easier to coach proper feet placement but just about impossible to coach a stronger arm.

[big9erfan]

2 hours ago, Forge said:

He can throw it just fine. He doesn't have a cannon. Joe Burrow can't throw either and he was the first pick overall last year lol.  Lance has a cannon and spotty accuracy. Which is more valuable? I don't want to knock Mac more than I have to. I mean, there are some things that I hope that Kyle is seeing. Like this: 

Watching this should be a *huge, huge huge* flag with regards to the arm. But I don't know if Shanny cares. 

If I had to guess, just based on that post who the pick would be, I'd rank them like this: 

1. Lance

2. Mac

3. Fields

And frankly, I don't think Fields would be all that close to the other 2. 

I'd have to go back and watch film to reming myself, but my recollection of Burrows is that his arm is definitely superior to Jones. And I have a lower opinion of Jones' arm than you. I don't it even qualifies as "fine". I mean it's good enough to be a starter if that's what you mean. But it would be among the worst arms of the starting qbs

[Forge]

9 minutes ago, big9erfan said:

I'd have to go back and watch film to reming myself, but my recollection of Burrows is that his arm is definitely superior to Jones. And I have a lower opinion of Jones' arm than you. I don't it even qualifies as "fine". I mean it's good enough to be a starter if that's what you mean. But it would be among the worst arms of the starting qbs

Burrows' arm is not good. I showed some clips earlier.  They are both in a range where it doesn't really matter who's is actually better or worse because they are in the same boat. It's semantics at a certain degree.

I will say that burrow is far more fearless with his arm though, so that's a big advantage. That clip I showed of Mac is concerning. That's a main nfl staple and Mac avoided it to check down

[big9erfan]

7 minutes ago, Forge said:

Burrows' arm is not good. I showed some clips earlier.  They are both in a range where it doesn't really matter who's is actually better or worse because they are in the same boat. It's semantics at a certain degree

You believe Jones is in the same range as Burrows, and you describe Burrows as "not good". That would make Jones "not good" too. So I'm in agreement with your assessment of Jones arm.

[big9erfan]

3 hours ago, Forge said:

He can throw it just fine. He doesn't have a cannon. Joe Burrow can't throw either and he was the first pick overall last year lol.  Lance has a cannon and spotty accuracy. Which is more valuable? I don't want to knock Mac more than I have to. I mean, there are some things that I hope that Kyle is seeing. Like this: 

Watching this should be a *huge, huge huge* flag with regards to the arm. But I don't know if Shanny cares. 

If I had to guess, just based on that post who the pick would be, I'd rank them like this: 

1. Lance

2. Mac

3. Fields

And frankly, I don't think Fields would be all that close to the other 2. 

This clip suggests exactly what I've been saying. Jones avoided the long cross-field out in favor of the short outlet to the back because I don't think he can make that longer throw very well. I haven[t mentioned Lance once here I think. So I should add that I'm fine with him. I don't see his ceiling as being very much higher than Fields but his floor as a lot lower. I can imagine both of them as multiple time pro bowlers after a couple years of grooming. But I could imagine (not predicting) Lance flaming out in 2 or 3 years if he continues to have accuracy issues.

[adamq]

1 hour ago, 49erurtaza said:

What are we doing here...

 

Edited April 23, 2021 by adamq

[the-catch]

Whose opinions are generally valued the most?? There's the draft gurus, the numbers/analytics guys, former GMs, and former players/QBs. I'd give the most weight to the former QBs esp if they played at the NFL level. And I must say it's a bit surprising that both Chris Simms and Kurt Warner rate Mac higher than both Fields and Lance (though Warner did say btwn 2-4 are basically interchangeable). Is anyone else aware of other QBs that have released their rankings?? I watch some of JT's the QB school and he had the April Fool's show, but has he or any other QB released a recent ranking??

[49ersfan]

1 hour ago, Forge said:

 

Maiocco & Michael Lombardi also think if its not Mac, its Lance

 

[Forge]

9 minutes ago, the-catch said:

Whose opinions are generally valued the most?? There's the draft gurus, the numbers/analytics guys, former GMs, and former players/QBs. I'd give the most weight to the former QBs esp if they played at the NFL level. And I must say it's a bit surprising that both Chris Simms and Kurt Warner rate Mac higher than both Fields and Lance (though Warner did say btwn 2-4 are basically interchangeable). Is anyone else aware of other QBs that have released their rankings?? I watch some of JT's the QB school and he had the April Fool's show, but has he or any other QB released a recent ranking??

He has TL and Fields 1/2 basically (when he did the pff mock a couple weeks ago, he said he'd take fields if he was jax)

[Forge]

5 minutes ago, 49ersfan said:

Maiocco & Michael Lombardi also think if its not Mac, its Lance

 

Niners Twitter is going to be so mad. So many of the "voices" think it's fields and I'm really starting to lean Lance / Mac

[49ersfan]

16 minutes ago, Forge said:

Niners Twitter is going to be so mad. So many of the "voices" think it's fields and I'm really starting to lean Lance / Mac

I feel like if it was Fields, we would have had some indication by now. Instead, you hear the conversation drifting towards Lance. 

 

 

[N4L]

6 minutes ago, 49ersfan said:

I feel like if it was Fields, we would have had some indication by now. Instead, you hear the conversation drifting towards Lance. 

Not necessarily. Usually you hear things 3 days out that end up being true. This year may be different though, because the entire football world has been talking about who the niners are going to take for the last month, so we may continue to keep it close to the vest until the day of 

[big9erfan]

I've been awfully hard on Jones. I should repeat that I took him in an early mock I did after trading down to 19 to get him. I remember thinking at the time that it was a steal for me. I would have been happy with him at 12. I can see him in the same way I saw Alex when he was at his best - a guy in the discussion for being in the top 10, but not a guy anyone would ever rate as one of the best in the league.  With what we gave up to pick third that's what we should be shooting for. I'd rather take a shot at a guy who could be in that discussion for best in the league, even at the risk of striking out. 

[Forge]

25 minutes ago, big9erfan said:

I've been awfully hard on Jones. I should repeat that I took him in an early mock I did after trading down to 19 to get him. I remember thinking at the time that it was a steal for me. I would have been happy with him at 12. I can see him in the same way I saw Alex when he was at his best - a guy in the discussion for being in the top 10, but not a guy anyone would ever rate as one of the best in the league.  With what we gave up to pick third that's what we should be shooting for. I'd rather take a shot at a guy who could be in that discussion for best in the league, even at the risk of striking out. 

Learn to love Mac Jones

[Dr A W Niloc]

59 minutes ago, big9erfan said:

I'd rather take a shot at a guy who could be in that discussion for best in the league, even at the risk of striking out. 

The level of sports journalism, which was never high, has cratered.  I can't remember the last time I heard a Talking Head cite an actual statistic.  Consequently, I estimate that not 1% of fandom can answer the simplest questions about the three most common measures of a QB:

1. Which college QB had the highest completion percentage in 2020?

2. Which college QB had the most yardage in 2020?

3. Which college QB had the highest QB Rating in 2020?

Edited April 23, 2021 by Dr A W Niloc