3rd Overall Pick - Trey Lance vs Justin Fields (with bonus third poll option)

[49erurtaza]

7 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

The level of sports journalism, which was never high, has cratered.  I can't remember the last time I heard a Talking Head cite an actual statistic.  Consequently, I estimate that not 1% of fandom can answer the simplest questions about the three most common measures of a QB:

1. Which college QB had the highest completion percentage in 2020?

2. Which college QB had the most yardage in 2020?

3. Which college QB had the highest QB Rating in 2020?

Who cares, again Kyle said he doesn't look at statistics. It's all Type...

Edited April 23, 2021 by 49erurtaza

[N4L]

Justin Fields has the most arm talent 

Hes the most accurate passer. Completion percentage be damned, his ball placement, especially deep, is easily the best of the remaining three guys BY FAR 

You can coach/teach literally everything else

His accuracy and arm talent will reign supreme. He is the pick. He was always the pick. Don't believe the hype. 

[rudyZ]

On 4/19/2021 at 5:56 PM, SonsofFenris7 said:

how in the hell did Kyle Pitts get into there? lol

A 5 items list is better than a 4 items list.

[rudyZ]

3 hours ago, 49erurtaza said:

Who cares, again Kyle said he doesn't look at statistics. It's all Type...

[sherm]

3 hours ago, Forge said:

Learn to love Mac Jones

 

4 hours ago, big9erfan said:

I've been awfully hard on Jones. I should repeat that I took him in an early mock I did after trading down to 19 to get him. I remember thinking at the time that it was a steal for me. I would have been happy with him at 12. [B]I can see him in the same way I saw Alex when he was at his best [/B]- a guy in the discussion for being in the top 10, but not a guy anyone would ever rate as one of the best in the league.  With what we gave up to pick third that's what we should be shooting for. I'd rather take a shot at a guy who could be in that discussion for best in the league, even at the risk of striking out. 

And at his best he was replaced twice.

[adamq]

 

.

Edited April 23, 2021 by adamq

[AustrianNiner]

YIKES

[J-ALL-DAY]

Barrows gives in and mocks us Jones!!! 

Add another to the list! 

[Ftn49]

5 hours ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

The level of sports journalism, which was never high, has cratered.  I can't remember the last time I heard a Talking Head cite an actual statistic.  Consequently, I estimate that not 1% of fandom can answer the simplest questions about the three most common measures of a QB:

1. Which college QB had the highest completion percentage in 2020?

2. Which college QB had the most yardage in 2020?

3. Which college QB had the highest QB Rating in 2020?

This will be the only time I reply to you. NCAA production does not indicate or dictate NFL production. Take a look below and tell me which has had huge nfl success. Completion percentage has the most productive NFL guys on it, but there is still a whole lot of bad even with the small amount of good. Traits define nfl success, not stats.

NCAA Passing leaders yardage

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/leaders/pass-yds-player-career.html

1	Case Keenum*	19217	2007	2011	Houston
2	Timmy Chang*	17072	2000	2004	Hawaii
3	Landry Jones*	16646	2009	2012	Oklahoma
4	Graham Harrell*	15793	2005	2008	Texas Tech
5	Ty Detmer	15031	1988	1991	Brigham Young
6	Kellen Moore*	14667	2008	2011	Boise State
7	Baker Mayfield*	14607	2013	2017	Oklahoma
8	Luke Falk*	14481	2014	2017	Washington State
9	Colt Brennan*	14193	2005	2007	Hawaii
10	Rakeem Cato*	14079	2011	2014	Marshall
11	Mason Rudolph*	13618	2014	2017	Oklahoma State
12	Sean Mannion*	13600	2011	2014	Oregon State
13	Brett Rypien*	13578	2015	2018	Boise State
14	Philip Rivers*	13484	2000	2003	North Carolina State
15	Corey Robinson*	13477	2010	2013	Troy
16	Colt McCoy*	13253	2006	2009	Texas
17	Aaron Murray*	13166	2010	2013	Georgia
18	Kevin Kolb*	12964	2003	2006	Houston
19	Dan Lefevour*	12905	2006	2009	Central Michigan
20	Cooper Rush*	12891	2013	2016	Central Michigan
21	Brandon Doughty*	12855	2011	2015	Western Kentucky
22	Derek Carr*	12843	2009	2013	Fresno State
23	Tim Rattay	12746	1997	1999	Louisiana Tech
24	Ryan Lindley*	12690	2008	2011	San Diego State
25	Luke McCown	12666	2000	2003	Louisiana Tech
26	Chris Redman	12541	1996	1999	Louisville
27	Chase Daniel*	12515	2005	2008	Missouri
28	Mason Fine*	12505	2016	2019	North Texas
29	Brent Stockstill*	12483	2014	2018	Middle Tennessee State
30	Trevor Vittatoe*	12439	2007	2010	UTEP
31	Kliff Kingsbury*	12429	1999	2002	Texas Tech
32	Matt Barkley*	12327	2009	2012	USC
33	Jake Browning*	12296	2015	2018	Washington
34	Jared Goff*	12195	2013	2015	California
35	Drew Lock*	12193	2015	2018	Missouri
Rk	Player	Yds	From	To	School
36	Zach Terrell*	12100	2013	2016	Western Michigan
37	Zac Dysert*	12013	2009	2012	Miami (OH)
38	Nick Mullens*	11994	2013	2016	Southern Mississippi
39	Shane Carden*	11991	2012	2014	East Carolina
40	Tajh Boyd*	11904	2010	2013	Clemson
41	Byron Leftwich*	11903	1998	2002	Marshall
42	Chase Holbrook	11846	2006	2008	New Mexico State
43	Carson Palmer*	11818	1998	2002	USC
44	Drew Brees*	11792	1997	2000	Purdue
45	Brady Quinn*	11762	2003	2006	Notre Dame
46	Russell Wilson*	11720	2008	2011	Wisconsin
47	Dane Evans*	11680	2013	2016	Tulsa
48	Geno Smith*	11662	2009	2012	West Virginia
49	Shane Buechele*	11660	2016	2020	SMU
50	David Greene*	11528	2001	2004	Georgia

NCAA TD passing leaders career

1	Case Keenum*	155	2007	2011	Houston
2	Kellen Moore*	142	2008	2011	Boise State
3	Graham Harrell*	134	2005	2008	Texas Tech
4	Colt Brennan*	131	2005	2007	Hawaii
	Rakeem Cato*	131	2011	2014	Marshall
	Baker Mayfield*	131	2013	2017	Oklahoma
7	Landry Jones*	123	2009	2012	Oklahoma
8	Ty Detmer	121	1988	1991	Brigham Young
	Aaron Murray*	121	2010	2013	Georgia
10	Luke Falk*	119	2014	2017	Washington State
11	Timmy Chang*	117	2000	2004	Hawaii
12	Matt Barkley*	116	2009	2012	USC
13	Tim Rattay	115	1997	1999	Louisiana Tech
14	Danny Wuerffel	114	1993	1996	Florida
15	Derek Carr*	113	2009	2013	Fresno State
16	Colt McCoy*	112	2006	2009	Texas
17	Brandon Doughty*	111	2011	2015	Western Kentucky
18	Russell Wilson*	109	2008	2011	Wisconsin
19	Tajh Boyd*	107	2010	2013	Clemson
	Chad Pennington*	107	1997	1999	Marshall
21	Brent Stockstill*	106	2014	2018	Middle Tennessee State
22	Marcus Mariota*	105	2012	2014	Oregon
23	J.T. Barrett*	104	2014	2017	Ohio State
24	Dan Lefevour*	102	2006	2009	Central Michigan
25	Chase Daniel*	101	2005	2008	Missouri
26	Chase Clement*	99	2005	2008	Rice
	Tim Hiller*	99	2005	2009	Western Michigan
	Matt Leinart*	99	2003	2005	USC
	Drew Lock*	99	2015	2018	Missouri
30	Geno Smith*	98	2009	2012	West Virginia
31	Trevor Vittatoe*	97	2007	2010	UTEP
32	Jared Goff*	96	2013	2015	California
	Zach Terrell*	96	2013	2016	Western Michigan
34	Justin Herbert*	95	2016	2019	Oregon
	Kliff Kingsbury*	95	1999	2002	Texas Tech
Rk	Player	TD	From	To	School
	Brady Quinn*	95	2003	2006	Notre Dame
	Philip Rivers*	95	2000	2003	North Carolina State
38	Jake Browning*	94	2015	2018	Washington
	Sam Ehlinger*	94	2017	2020	Texas
	Max Hall*	94	2007	2009	Brigham Young
41	Mason Fine*	93	2016	2019	North Texas
	Patrick Mahomes*	93	2014	2016	Texas Tech
	Logan Woodside*	93	2013	2017	Toledo

Completion percentage

1	Mac Jones*	77.4	2020	Alabama
2	Colt McCoy*	76.7	2008	Texas
3	Joe Burrow*	76.3	2019	LSU
4	Kellen Moore*	74.3	2011	Boise State
5	Daunte Culpepper	73.6	1998	UCF
6	Stefan Lefors*	73.5	2004	Louisville
7	Zach Wilson*	73.5	2020	Brigham Young
8	Dan Persa*	73.5	2010	Northwestern
9	Dustin Crum	73.5	2020	Kent State
10	Dan Persa*	73.4	2011	Northwestern
11	Jack Abraham	73.1	2018	Southern Mississippi
12	Tyler Huntley*	73.1	2019	Utah
13	Scott Tolzien*	72.9	2010	Wisconsin
14	Chase Daniel*	72.9	2008	Missouri
15	Russell Wilson*	72.8	2011	Wisconsin
16	Colt Brennan*	72.6	2006	Hawaii
17	Wes Counts	72.6	2001	Middle Tennessee State
18	David Fales*	72.5	2012	San Jose State
19	Riley Skinner*	72.4	2007	Wake Forest
20	Brandon Weeden*	72.4	2011	Oklahoma State
21	Robert Griffin III*	72.4	2011	Baylor
22	Tim Couch	72.3	1998	Kentucky
23	Terrance Owens*	72.2	2011	Toledo
24	Philip Rivers*	72	2003	North Carolina State
25	Kedon Slovis*	71.9	2019	USC
26	Brandon Doughty*	71.9	2015	Western Kentucky
27	Graham Harrell*	71.8	2007	Texas Tech
28	Anthony Gordon*	71.6	2019	Washington State
29	Adrian Martinez	71.5	2020	Nebraska
30	Steve Young	71.3	1983	Brigham Young
31	Andrew Luck*	71.3	2011	Stanford
32	Kellen Moore*	71.3	2010	Boise State
33	Geno Smith*	71.2	2012	West Virginia
34	Bruce Gradkowski	71.2	2003	Toledo
35	Doug Gaynor	71.2	1985	Long Beach State
Rk	Player	Pct	Year	School
36	Case Keenum*	71	2011	Houston
37	Teddy Bridgewater*	71	2013	Louisville
38	Baker Mayfield*	70.9	2016	Oklahoma
39	Greg McElroy*	70.9	2010	Alabama
40	Matt Corral*	70.9	2020	Ole Miss
41	Grant Hedrick*	70.8	2014	Boise State
42	Wayne Peace	70.7	1982	Florida
43	Andrew Luck*	70.7	2010	Stanford
44	Rich Campbell	70.7	1980	California
45	Gardner Minshew*	70.7	2018	Washington State
46	Colt McCoy*	70.6	2009	Texas
47	Graham Harrell*	70.6	2008	Texas Tech
48	Phil Horvath	70.6	2005	Northern Illinois
49	Baker Mayfield*	70.5	2017	Oklahoma
50	Shane Carden*	70.5	2013	East Carolina

 

 

[757-NINER]

No one, including the Mac naysayers, are disputing that he won't come here and succeed. Hell, Shanny almost had noodle arm Nick Mullens sneak us into playoff contention. 

Almost any QB in this draft slated to go in the first two rounds could come in and guide this team to a playoff birth at minimum. There has been no better situation for a rookie QB to come into and have the resources and talent around him to succeed immediately that my NFL fandom can recall. 

The problem with Mac and his selection is that it speaks to being tied to a certain level of success. A certain type of success. Mac isn't the type of talent to overcome the shortcomings around him. At no point in his college career did he get on a field and the talent disparity wasn't largely pro Bama. Maybe in 2019 versus Burrow/LSU you could say it was about even. But he's come to the table with the appetizer, dinner salad, sides, main course w/all the fixins and desert, all neatly and precisely laid out for him. All he's had to do is eat. 

The parity in the NFL guarantees that will probably never be the case going foward. Playing under Shanny will definitely get you a coupon for a free appetizer. But you will have to prepare your own meals. And sometimes you may not have sides or a dessert. Sometimes you have to be the chef. And I don't believe there are enough ingredients in his kitchen to make a decent meal when the other cooks aren't around.

The fact that it has been reported that we were going to push hard for Watson makes me believe that Shanny wants more from his offense in its current state. If that is the case, Fields is clearly the best option, followed by Lance. If he is content with a decent upgrade on the status quo then it overwhelming favors Mac. 

I wouldn't be so dead set against Mac if Shanny's previous eval at the position weren't so troubling. Trading up for CJ and thinking Mullens and Beathard were good enough to never entertain the thought of elevating the talent in our QB room gives me pause when trusting his decision making here. I'm praying our scouts/personnel ppl are making a case for him to broaden his scope.

[GW21]

40 minutes ago, AustrianNiner said:

YIKES

Yeah this is what scares me about Lance. It watching him play, it seems like he tries to rocket everything in like Kap used to do. Now I have seen instances where he has taken something off some of his passes and thrown with touch on some fades or deep balls, so I don’t think he is Kap and he can learn when and where he needs to really push the ball and when he needs to lay up. He just doesn’t have the natural feels for it like Fields does.

[49ersfan]

https://theathletic.com/2537488/2021/04/23/rich-scangarello-mike-shanahan-whose-voices-are-going-into-the-49ers-qb-decision-mailbag/

Quote

 

Any tea leaves regarding quarterbacks coach Rich Scangarello’s or offensive coordinator Mike McDaniels’ preferences as far as QB traits? — Robert W.

No. But it is notable that Scangarello twice has watched Ohio State’s Justin Fields in person and was part of the crew that recently looked at North Dakota State’s Trey Lance. Scangarello played a big role in the 2017 quarterback search, too. He was the only coach who watched C.J. Beathard work out and he pounded the table for Nick Mullens. Scangarello identified Mullens as a potential fit, then advocated for him.

Say what you will about Mullens, but he was an undersized, undrafted rookie who became the 49ers’ No. 2 quarterback a year later. That likely earned Scangarello some clout around the office. Make no mistake: This will be Shanahan’s pick. But I get the sense that Scangarello has strong opinions and that Shanahan values those opinions.

 

Quote

 

How much input does Mike Shanahan have on the next QB? — Marc A.

Put it this way: Earlier this month, I called Mike to talk about his quarterback philosophy in general and to discuss his 2012 quarterback search in Washington. When he called back, the 49ers headquarters phone number registered on my phone. He was calling from Kyle’s office. (The call is coming from inside the building!)

 

Quote

 

P.S. In reporting this mailbag, I made several phone calls to various agents, sources, etc. I called for different reasons, but I asked each who they think the 49ers are taking at pick No. 3. None has an affiliation with any of the three quarterbacks or is with a team seeking a quarterback.

The verdict? Fields went 4-for-4.

 

Interesting. Scranganello is vital to our QB search but didn't even bother to see Jones in person, but has seen Fields & Lance. That bodes well for not drafting Jones...yet Mike Shanahan is involved and apparently he really likes Jones  

Also interesting that all 4 agents called think its Fields....

Edited April 23, 2021 by 49ersfan

[757-NINER]

 

 

 

 

 

[Chrissooner49er]

11 hours ago, SoCalNiner said:

I'm baffled myself. 

I don't understand how anyone can defend the 49ers drafting Mac Jones. I'd be alright with it if we were originally picking at 3, but that's not the case. Mac Jones isn't a guy you use 3 1st round picks on.

We won't know for 6 more days, but it is possible Kyle will. With both the draft and opinions, nothing is absolute. 

[GW21]

26 minutes ago, 49ersfan said:

https://theathletic.com/2537488/2021/04/23/rich-scangarello-mike-shanahan-whose-voices-are-going-into-the-49ers-qb-decision-mailbag/

Interesting. Scranganello is vital to our QB search but didn't even bother to see Jones in person, but has seen Fields & Lance. That bodes well for not drafting Jones...yet Mike Shanahan is involved and apparently he really likes Jones  

Also interesting that all 4 agents called think its Fields....

Make it happen!!!