3rd Overall Pick - Trey Lance vs Justin Fields (with bonus third poll option)

[GW21]

Just now, GW21 said:

Daaaaang, Kirk was hammering home kids at 9 years old. Legend!

 

I should have used different phrasing there. That sounds bad. My apologies.

[N4L]

1 minute ago, N4L said:

I just heard a rumor that Mac Jones is really Kirk Cousins son. Apparently Kyles mom had an affair with kirk, so not only is he genetically equal to 50% of the greatest quarterback of all time, but hes also Kyles half brother. Wow! That explains it. 

it also explains why Mike shanahan has been leaking the mccorkle pick to the media. He just wants to keep reliving that time he watched his wife and kirk from the closet. 

the math checks out

[Forge]

He just put this one up earlier today 

[GW21]

1 hour ago, Forge said:

Mac Jones is the heavy favorite now for betting. I'm pretty sure that this is the biggest spread there has been 

Fields +260

Lance +350

Mac -225. 

I don't believe that we have ever seen Mac as that much of a favorite. 

So how do they determine these odds? Is there some nerd sitting in a back room calculating what he thinks will happen or is it based on the money coming in on a certain player?

[adamq]

4 minutes ago, Forge said:

He just put this one up earlier today 

The throw at the 6 minutr mark is exactly why I don't care too much about Mac's stats. Any QB in the league can make that throw and have the best player on the field take it for 6. 

[GW21]

I’ve posted every 2020 Fields play and every 2019 Trey Lance play, so for those interested, here is every 2020 Mac Jones play:

 

[Forge]

4 minutes ago, adamq said:

The throw at the 6 minutr mark is exactly why I don't care too much about Mac's stats. Any QB in the league can make that throw and have the best player on the field take it for 6. 

Are you suggesting that Mac Jones was not solely responsible for all those RAC yards ? 

[Forge]

5 minutes ago, GW21 said:

So how do they determine these odds? Is there some nerd sitting in a back room calculating what he thinks will happen or is it based on the money coming in on a certain player?

At this point it's about money. Vegas doesn't care who wins or what the odds are. It cares about exposure. They want to pay out the same regardless of who wins, that's their goal. So if a bunch of money comes in on Jones, they start making the odds more enticing for Lance / Fields so they can get more people to bet there. Only one guy can win, so if the bets are even, they are going to make money on their end. 

[Dr A W Niloc]

11 minutes ago, adamq said:

The throw at the 6 minutr mark is exactly why I don't care too much about Mac's stats.

     You're criticizing Jones for making a perfect throw?

Quote

Any QB in the league can make that throw and have the best player on the field take it for 6.

Are you sure you can't think of two rookie QBs who can't make that throw that quickly?

[GW21]

3 minutes ago, Forge said:

At this point it's about money. Vegas doesn't care who wins or what the odds are. It cares about exposure. They want to pay out the same regardless of who wins, that's their goal. So if a bunch of money comes in on Jones, they start making the odds more enticing for Lance / Fields so they can get more people to bet there. Only one guy can win, so if the bets are even, they are going to make money on their end. 

That’s what I figured. Seems like it’d be a pretty volatile business if they were trying to calculate odds on what they thought would happen. I went to Vegas once with like $300 in my pocket when I was 23, won $120 on Black Jack, then turned around and lost double that on craps (still don’t know how that game works). I’d like to go back someday now that I’m making good money and see how much I could lose. I think the odds are -50000 that it’s all of it. 

[49erurtaza]

11 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

     You're criticizing Jones for making a perfect throw?

Are you sure you can't think of two rookie QBs who can't make that throw that quickly?

So if Lance/Fields is picked you going to be disappointed or what? Lol 

[Forge]

Just now, 49erurtaza said:

So if Lance/Fields is picked you going to be disappointed or what? Lol 

He's not even a niners fan. I think he's Mac Jones. 

[49erurtaza]

Just now, Forge said:

He's not even a niners fan. I think he's Mac Jones. 

Lol I don't even know if Mac Jones believes in himself like @Dr A W Niloc believes in him. 

[Ftn49]

I think he's a pats fan and he doesn't want them to trade up for him.

[Forge]

Just now, Ftn49 said:

I think he's a pats fan and he doesn't want them to trade up for him.

They are apparently looking at Kyle Trask.