3rd Overall Pick - Trey Lance vs Justin Fields (with bonus third poll option)

[Forge]

Just now, Justone2 said:

Call me crazy but i think Fields is too accurate at times and has to learn to lead receivers more when he wants to succeed in the NFL. Hitting guys on the numbers is great in theory but i feel in general leading a guy by throwing it slightly to his left or right to an open space is more valuable than hitting your target perfectly.

Maybe, but then why aren't we dinging Mac for the high number of deep balls he vastly underthrows that are complete? That is something that shows on tape over and over

We say we value vision, but Jones goes through his progressions and secondary reads the least in the class (half as much as fields according to TDN) and is the least effective when doing it (charted by multiple). 

It's just really weird to me. 

[straighthate]

2 minutes ago, Forge said:

We say we value vision, but Jones goes through his progressions and secondary reads the least in the class (half as much as fields according to TDN) and is the least effective when doing it (charted by multiple).  

This is where I just defer to the guys scouting and interviews and all that. Like I said, watched every snap from fields and Mac and to me, it looked like Mac was checking down, going through his reads, etc, where fields seemed locked in to receivers. I’ve seen the stats some of you have shared to say otherwise but I’m just saying I didn’t see it that way at all. Maybe with the various angles you can see the eyes rather than just where the helmets pointing and all that, but it looked to me like Mac was scanning the field and Fields wasn’t nearly as much. But that’s once again, where I gotta trust the team doing research and talking to the prospects about what the play call was, who they looked off, etc. I just don’t have that much info, so it’s eye test for me. Also why I don’t see a big enough difference between Fields and Mac to flip out over either. Lance, I really think is inaccurate and will never be a top QB. If he’s who we go with, hope I’m wrong!

[J-ALL-DAY]

If Jones is the pick and starts from day one, predict his rookie stats:

4,200 passing yards

24 TDs

9 INTs

65% completion percentage

Something around that range? Or will he do better? Worse?

[Justone2]

2 minutes ago, Forge said:

Maybe, but then why aren't we dinging Mac for the high number of deep balls he vastly underthrows that are complete? That is something that shows on tape over and over

We say we value vision, but Jones goes through his progressions and secondary reads the least in the class (half as much as fields according to TDN) and is the least effective when doing it (charted by multiple). 

It's just really weird to me. 

Watching the Penn State game now and really every single pass under ten yards you can chart as accurate(it hits the guy he is targeting that is) but not a single one is placed where it should in my eyes(funny thing is his first incompletion is probably the best placement of all the throws to that point. He is absolutely amazing in the intermediate and deep parts and way better than both Lance and Jones in those no doubt. But for him to succeed in the NFL he has to improve on the short stuff. Seeing what he can do on the move and on those deepers throws i think he should be able to improve. 

I think i said earlier Fields should be the pick if he checks out in the interviews(mostly in terms of his processing speed because the guy has the academic accolades to show he is legit smart which sometimes people mix-up. Being smart and being quickthinking are two very different things and the top QB's basically need both). What Fields has shown on the field plus the potential he has if he develops the weaknesses in the short game is way above what Jones can be at his best. However if he doesn't show the ability to quickly process information(For me the biggest ? based on his play) i can totally get going for Lance and Jones where i think is a much more interesting debate on if you value what a guy has shown in college versus what someone can become based on the tools and age.

[Forge]

14 minutes ago, straighthate said:

My problem with him is mainly pocket presence and I see a ton of third down sacks in his future. It’s the single most frustrating thing for me when watching Jimmy or Kap before him.

You're not wrong 😂

@Justone2 and I touched on this briefly earlier. This is a preference thing. It's a double edged sword because he's going to make plays that Mac can't by doing this too. I get not wanting to deal with that 

[Justone2]

2 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

If Jones is the pick and starts from day one, predict his rookie stats:

4,200 passing yards

24 TDs

9 INTs

65% completion percentage

Something around that range? Or will he do better? Worse?

Maybe a few more INTS but thats a statline i can see him get. TD's can be up a bit or down a bit too but thats also a bit more situational i think.

[J-ALL-DAY]

2 minutes ago, Justone2 said:

Maybe a few more INTS but thats a statline i can see him get. TD's can be up a bit or down a bit too but thats also a bit more situational i think.

Yeah, TDs I can see be higher for sure but sometimes it depends on the type of play calls inside the five. 

[Forge]

5 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

If Jones is the pick and starts from day one, predict his rookie stats:

4,200 passing yards

24 TDs

9 INTs

65% completion percentage

Something around that range? Or will he do better? Worse?

Higher completion percentage. He's going to check down and throw short a ton. 

More ints 

[Justone2]

1 minute ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Yeah, TDs I can see be higher for sure but sometimes it depends on the type of play calls inside the five. 

Yeah or a guy gets tackled at the one and then the RB runs it in. But i think most of those are things he can reach with probably the Ints more in the 12 range.

[J-ALL-DAY]

6 minutes ago, Forge said:

Higher completion percentage. He's going to check down and throw short a ton. 

More ints 

He's also going to have some INTs on deep throws since he attempts those at a fairly high clip and Shanny will be drawing up shots to Aiyuk at least a few times a game. But does anyone have his intermediate stats? Jimmy and Ryan made a killing in that area and that's super crucial in this offense. We know Mac is really solid on deep throws and within five yards, but how about in the 11-20 range? Does anyone have numbers for Fields/Lance in those areas as well? 

[Forge]

5 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

He's also going to have some INTs on deep throws since he attempts those at a fairly high clip and Shanny will be drawing up shots to Aiyuk at least a few times a game. But does anyone have his intermediate stats? Jimmy and Ryan made a killing in that area and that's super crucial in this offense. We know Mac is really solid on deep throws and within five yards, but how about in the 11-20 range? Does anyone have numbers for Fields/Lance in those areas as well? 

I posted them earlier, but thread is super long lol

 

Football outsiders had Mac at 

88/115 (76.5%) 14/2 for 11-20 yards 

Fields

54/70 (77.14%), 8/3

[Forge]

Lance 54/89 (60.6%), 8/0

[Forge]

Get ready for the Mac Attack! 

Interesting nugget about the shanahan love for Mac Jones *not* being hidden

[Ronnie's Pinky]

Can somebody tell me what is the actual argument for Trey Lance over Justin Fields? As far as I can tell, they have very similar tools and upside, only Fields is considerably more accurate and experienced.

I've heard draft analysts suggest it's Lance because he needs a year of seasoning and "that's just perfect with Jimmy still on the team", as if drafting a non pro-ready QB is somehow a good thing now?! I'm just not receiving any signal from the universe in which this logic makes sense. Trey Lance is so clearly an inferior prospect to Fields that I kinda bluescreen mentally when I hear some of these arguments.

Jones is a different type of player, and I suppose there's a world in which Kyle values his traits so much that he's the pick, but the arguments for Lance seem so fanciful that I cannot take them seriously.

[Justone2]

3 minutes ago, Ronnie's Pinky said:

Can somebody tell me what is the actual argument for Trey Lance over Justin Fields? As far as I can tell, they have very similar tools and upside, only Fields is considerably more accurate and experienced.

I've heard draft analysts suggest it's Lance because he needs a year of seasoning and "that's just perfect with Jimmy still on the team", as if drafting a non pro-ready QB is somehow a good thing now?! I'm just not receiving any signal from the universe in which this logic makes sense. Trey Lance is so clearly an inferior prospect to Fields that I kinda bluescreen mentally when I hear some of these arguments.

Jones is a different type of player, and I suppose there's a world in which Kyle values his traits so much that he's the pick, but the arguments for Lance seem so fanciful that I cannot take them seriously.

Only thing i have seen mentioned is his age and the fact he played in a way more pro-style scheme. From a mental standpoint i think you can argue Lance is ahead of Fields and if you think the accuracy is in fixing small things then i can kinda see it.