3rd Overall Pick - Trey Lance vs Justin Fields (with bonus third poll option)

[SonsofFenris7]

6 minutes ago, 49ersfan said:

On Maioccos podcast, Silver said that he "feels comfortable saying" that Jones was the 3rd guy the Niners felt comfortable with making the trade upto 3, with Lawrence/Wilson 1-2. Also says they scouted Lance & Fields hard and its possible they could arrive at a difference place. However, listening to him, it feels like Silver is 99% sure that its gona be Jones. 

 

Then we deserve to be crap.. we shouldnt be looking for a jimmy G clone but someone more dynamic in mold of Josh Allen, Russell Wilson etc..

[Forge]

11 minutes ago, 49ersfan said:

On Maioccos podcast, Silver said that he "feels comfortable saying" that Jones was the 3rd guy the Niners felt comfortable with making the trade upto 3, with Lawrence/Wilson 1-2. Also says they scouted Lance & Fields hard and its possible they could arrive at a difference place. However, listening to him, it feels like Silver is 99% sure that its gona be Jones. 

 

The Fowler report ostensibly is in lock step with Silver's reporting as well. 

Silver's reasoning comes from a place that I can easily understand and would probably share in his place based on how I perceive Shanny to be and what kind of person I would think him to be. 

I agree that Mac seems to very clearly have been the third QB. I think that this is supportable circumstantially via previous educated guesses and shifts. I also think it would be very unlike my opinion of Shanny to have him go back on that opinion (especially one that is shared by his father) and change his mind to draft Lance or Fields. 

[Geek]

1 hour ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

Geeks prefer Mac Jones. 

People whose ears bleed when they hear statistics don't.

I can attest that this statement is false.

[49ers fan]

18 minutes ago, straighthate said:

Really? So if it’s a prospect with a high upside or physical tools, you’d respect him but if it’s because of tools that maybe come out in the interview process or advice of scouts or whatever, that you don’t have access to, you wouldn’t? Makes no sense. Basically you’re saying go with the one the fans want, which is always the fastest, biggest arm, etc, or you can’t miss. 

Kind of. I'm saying if you trade 3 first round picks, you go with the guy with the highest ceiling for you. You don't trade all those assets to take the highest floor. 

 

That being said, I don't think it's crazy to say that Fields has a higher floor than Jones at all. 

Edited April 25, 2021 by 49ers fan

[Dr A W Niloc]

5 minutes ago, 49ers fan said:

Kind of. I'm saying if you trade 3 first round picks, you go with the guy with the highest ceiling for you. You don't trade all those assets to take the highest floor.

Even if yours is one of the strongest teams in the league (when healthy)?

[Forge]

I mean, this really sounds to me like Mac has pretty much been the guy all along. Shanny just doesn't strike me as the type that is going to change his mind, personally. 

But I could be reading the room wrong. 

That sounds like to me Mac was the third, they gave Lance / Fields a shot, but I agree with Silver that ultimately Shanny is probably going to go with his gut and select Mac. That being said, that's mostly me just trying to gel together the recent reporting. 

[Forge]

1 minute ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

Even if yours is one of the strongest teams in the league (when healthy)?

"My team is really good, I should take the least talented guy" 

[SonsofFenris7]

5 minutes ago, Forge said:

I mean, this really sounds to me like Mac has pretty much been the guy all along. Shanny just doesn't strike me as the type that is going to change his mind, personally. 

But I could be reading the room wrong. 

That sounds like to me Mac was the third, they gave Lance / Fields a shot, but I agree with Silver that ultimately Shanny is probably going to go with his gut and select Mac. That being said, that's mostly me just trying to gel together the recent reporting. 

Great Job Shanny handicap us for the next couple of years with the QB that shouldnt even be in the discussion..

[adamq]

Just now, SonsofFenris7 said:

Great Job Shanny handicap us for the next couple of years with the QB that shouldnt even be in the discussion..

It's mind-blowing that Alex Smith got nothing but hate for being a "game manager" for 15 years, but Mac Jones is still going to be a top 3 pick

[Forge]

The universe (and NFL Network scheduling) trying to either troll or prepare the 49er fanbase LOL 

There's humor in this draft season when you look for it, I promise. 

[SonsofFenris7]

2 minutes ago, adamq said:

It's mind-blowing that Alex Smith got nothing but hate for being a "game manager" for 15 years, but Mac Jones is still going to be a top 3 pick

We are garbage with these 2 in charge.. we can win some games but never come up big when needed.. 

[Ftn49]

48 minutes ago, straighthate said:

Really? So if it’s a prospect with a high upside or physical tools, you’d respect him but if it’s because of tools that maybe come out in the interview process or advice of scouts or whatever, that you don’t have access to, you wouldn’t? Makes no sense. Basically you’re saying go with the one the fans want, which is always the fastest, biggest arm, etc, or you can’t miss. 

Your not wrong, it won't matter this job most likely.

It will the next when he he tries to get a head coaching gig when he's asked how he could possibly be placed in charge of a multi-billion dollar organization with his history of overpaying for substandard employees. That's harsh language, and Kyle can't possibly be thinking about the next job right now however it is also the truth.

[J-ALL-DAY]

42 minutes ago, Forge said:

I mean, this really sounds to me like Mac has pretty much been the guy all along. Shanny just doesn't strike me as the type that is going to change his mind, personally. 

But I could be reading the room wrong. 

That sounds like to me Mac was the third, they gave Lance / Fields a shot, but I agree with Silver that ultimately Shanny is probably going to go with his gut and select Mac. That being said, that's mostly me just trying to gel together the recent reporting. 

I mean could be that he was the 3rd guy all along but Fowler mentioned again that they aren't going to tip this off and top execs don't even know what is going on…. Is that mainly a reference to Fowler? 

Kevin Clark thinks the Jones talks stemmed from the Dolphins after the trade. But I have a hard time thinking Shanny would tell them that at the time of the trade. 

I'm still going with my theory that they did NOT know who they wanted at the time of the trade. These guys (not Fowler) think it was always Jones from day one. 

And Fowler said the meetings and evaluations concluded late last week (probably Friday or Saturday evening). 

So I don't think anyone needs to come off their prediction just yet. 

[Forge]

"Pick the trait you want, then pick that guy,” an AFC decision-maker said. “None of them are everything you want.”

This wasn't said in reference to Mac Jones, yet is probably the best reasoning I've seen to draft Mac Jones lol. I wouldn't agree with putting that one trait over everything else if the others are better in more areas, but I get it

 

[big9erfan]

Actual very amateur film analysis here ... Somebody mentioned Fields game against Penn St and how he was not perfectly placing the ball. So I went back and watched. Before commenting on what I think I saw let me just say that he hit on over 80% of his passes, for over 300 yards, 4 TDs ad 0 Ints. Whatever deep dive we want to take into each of his passes let's just be clear that any team whose QB has a day like that is very likely to win the game.

I'm only going to look at the four TDs here. One was from about the 10. Both inside LBs rushed leaving the middle open. The TE ran a shallow slant to the middle. Fields spotted the hole in the middle immediately and fired a dart through a lot of upraised hands. It hit the TE right in the hands, right in stride. There's throw that people say Jones is good at (not arguing that point). But Fields threw it just as well. Another TD pass came from the 2. Fields faked a run up the middle and the defense bit hard (because Fields can run). That left a TE going to the corner flag wide open. This time instead of flinging it hard like on the last one where he had to get through a lot of hands he lofted it. Hit the reciever right in the hands and right in stride. Accuracy and touch every bit a good as what Jones can do with the added factor that the receiver was wide open because of the run fake.  So that makes two TDs passes exactly to the level Jones could do. So it's not that he "can't" make short throws, or even isn't good at them. He just do it as consistently (addressed below).

Ah, but those other two TDs! On one of them Fields let it fly from his own 45 and it hit Olave's outstretched hands right in stride at the five. Incredible throw. But also again a great read as he saw that as soon as Olave made his move he would be open. He only had a step or two. So Fields had to be bold enough to take the shot, strong enough not to hang it up for an int, and accurate enough for the catch to be made. He was all of that! The other one came from between the 25 and 30. He did a pump fake hoping to shake the defender to no avail. The defender was hanging on the receiver all the way down the field. In fact had his hands on him when the ball arrived. But it was placed right where the catch could be made and left enough room for the receiver to get his feet down before going out of bounds. He threw this one from the hash at the 30 to a spot about 5 yards deep and right near the sideline on a line. Typical frozen rope. I truly believe those two throws are ones that Jones simply cannot make, and I doubt he would even take those shots. That's what we would be missing if we took Jones.

Whoever made that post was absolutely correct that not every short pass Fields took was perfectly placed. But a lot of them were. Jones threw 117 passes behind the los this year while Fields threw 44. For every one of those attempts there were countless practice throws. It all probability Jones has practiced those throws hundred of times more than Fields. If I see two QBs that are generally speaking really accurate throwers but one of them has thrown hundreds more of a certain kind of pass I would expect him to be better at it. I would also expect the other guy to get to be just as good, or very close once his reps catch up to what the other guys has done. So I expect the gap between their short accuracy to narrow considerably over time. What I don't expect is that any amount conditioning or mechanics tweaking that will ever allow Jones to make those longer two TD passes that Fields made. And those aren't rare. He makes those routinely.

End of my shoddy analysis. But I am still firmly in favor of Fields over Jones - even after watching that Penn St that was called out. I might even say especially after watching that game.

 

 

 

Edited April 25, 2021 by big9erfan