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3rd Overall Pick - Trey Lance vs Justin Fields (with bonus third poll option)


Which QB?  

90 members have voted

  1. 1. Which QB do you want the niners to draft?

    • Trey Lance
      13
    • Justin Fields
      48
    • Neither, I would rather shoot N4L in the face with a shotgun by drafting Mac Jones
      29
  2. 2. Should we keep Garoppolo for 2021

    • Yes
      62
    • No
      26

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  • Poll closed on 04/30/2021 at 01:00 AM

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23 hours ago, Dutch said:

Some perspective about drafting a QB in the first round, and mind you, I love Kyle taking his shot at what he sees as his QB. I'm hoping for the best, but also crossing my fingers as I spend way too much time pondering who the pick is and why it will effect the next ten years of our program when in the last ten years across the NFL, it's kind of a crapshoot...

32  Total QB's drafted in the first round, of them...

8 Out of the league/free agent

11 Backups

5 Starter caliber 

6 Starter/Potential Franchise, and the potential is also linked to them being drafted in the last three years.

2 Star/Franchise QB's

 

First round QB picks in the last ten years.

Star/Franchise QB, Starter/Potential Franchise, Starter, Backup, Out of the league/free agent

2011: CAM NEWTON* (PANTHERS)**, JAKE LOCKER (TITANS), BLAINE GABBERT (JAGUARS), CHRISTIAN PONDER (VIKINGS) 

2012: ANDREW LUCK* (COLTS), ROBERT GRIFFIN III (REDSKINS), RYAN TANNEHILL (DOLPHINS), BRANDON WEEDEN (BROWNS)

2013: EJ MANUEL (BILLS)

2014: BLAKE BORTLES (JAGUARS), JOHNNY MANZIEL (BROWNS), TEDDY BRIDGEWATER (VIKINGS)**

2015: JAMEIS WINSTON (BUCCANEERS), MARCUS MARIOTA (TITANS) 

2016: JARED GOFF (RAMS), CARSON WENTZ (EAGLES), PAXTON LYNCH (BRONCOS)

2017: MITCHELL TRUBISKY (BEARS), PATRICK MAHOMES (CHIEFS), DESHAUN WATSON (TEXANS)

2018:BAKER MAYFIELD (BROWNS), SAM DARNOLD (JETS)**, JOSH ALLEN (BILLS), JOSH ROSEN (CARDINALS), LAMAR JACKSON (RAVENS)

2019: KYLER MURRAY (CARDINALS), DANIEL JONES (GIANTS), DWAYNE HASKINS (WASHINGTON)

2020: JOE BURROW (BENGALS), TUA TAGOVAILOA (DOLPHINS), JUSTIN HERBERT (CHARGERS), JORDAN LOVE (PACKERS)

*Was something better than what he is now

**Will probably be a backup

You all may have other grades/thoughts on QB's but I think this is fairly accurate.

You lost me at colours...

I'm colourblind, dammit...

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Not sure if anyone has mentioned this but the 3rd QB taken in the last 4 drafts seems to not be as bad as it might appear. Herbert, Haskins(only clear miss) Allen and Watson. Watson was great up until this off-season. I was always good with the trade from the moment I heard about it. Maybe this will help the people who think we overreacted...lol Can't wait for the draft.

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5 hours ago, rudyZ said:

You lost me at colours...

I'm colourblind, dammit...

Sorry Rudy. I'm a teacher, so colors are my jam to get ideas across quickly. To make it up to you, I'll teach my culinary class the fine intricacies of the squeekiest of poutine. Gourmand gravy!!!

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Listened to Colin Cowherd today. Predicts Lawrence to Jags, Wilson to Jets, Lance to the Niners, Fields to Panthers & Jones to Broncos. He also thinks the Mac Jones talk is fluff

Normally i wouldn't put his opinion here, but he did make the astute point after our FA about how we'd loaded our team up, had a bunch of big contracts, & seemed to be positioning ourselves for a rookie QB on a cheap deal

 

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19 minutes ago, 49ersfan said:

Listened to Colin Cowherd today. Predicts Lawrence to Jags, Wilson to Jets, Lance to the Niners, Fields to Panthers & Jones to Broncos. He also thinks the Mac Jones talk is fluff

Normally i wouldn't put his opinion here, but he did make the astute point after our FA about how we'd loaded our team up, had a bunch of big contracts, & seemed to be positioning ourselves for a rookie QB on a cheap deal

 

The second half of that video was very close to what I was saying earlier. Shanny drafts Jones and it doesn't work out he is essentially unhireable as a head coach. He also brought up a point I was thinking about but didn't write with if it does go down that way it is this is the Tebow trade and draft x1000. 

Fortunately, I doubt it will happen. People are saying that cousins is Shanahans ideal qb. It's not, it's John Elway. Which QBs profile most closely with Elway? Lance and Fields (and Lawrence). 

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1 hour ago, 49erurtaza said:

 

Rich nailed it with this interpretation. 

Kyle has a good poker face, but its not perfect. I saw the flash of a smirk when he said Kirks name for the first time. I took his comments exactly the way Rich did. 

"everyone thinks my prototypical guy is Kirk Cousins. thats just .... "  ... "wrong" is what he wanted to say lol I think Kyle lightweight likes trolling people and thinks its funny how obsessed the general media is with him and Kirk. 

Then he quickly goes back to strictly factual information about their history to get the emotion out of his answer. "I only coached him for three games" (aka its not like I won a superbowl with this dude) 

"Yeah, we were going to sign him in free agency. There are a lot of guys you can win with in this league, Kirk is one of them" (aka he is no different than what we already have at this position)

"thats not because... thats how you draw it up. If you are going to draw it up you will draw it up so that hes the biggest, fastest, and also a good QB" 

kirk cousins rumors - whywontyoudie.gif 

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2 hours ago, 49erurtaza said:

 

I feel like I enjoy Rich way more now than I did when he was on sportscenter

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Ok, I am starting to turn the corner of these snorkle mccorkle jones rumors. First it was - no freaking chance. Then it was - it better not be. Then it was - ****, maybe this rumor has legs. Now I am back to - no freaking chance, this is all a diversion, lets just have some fun with how dumb this would be. The memes are starting to become fun. This month is going to be an absurdly long wait. (I still cant believe 16 people voted for mac jones in the poll).

Ultimately, trading so much for a QB who will require impeccable pass blocking seems like a mistake considering how our OL has pass blocked in the past. I dont think Kyle traded up for a QB who probably wont have the ability to establish himself as an elite QB at any point in his career. I am sure that Mac would be fine here, but you dont go up that far for "fine". So personally, I am going to cross snorkle mccorkle off the list of possible outcomes. It.aint.happening.  

 

With that being said, here is a (modified) post I made in the news section about WHY we are trying to put all of the focus on Mac Jones:

It doesnt matter who the niners are targeting, the point is that no one else knows. I do think we have a specific guy in mind that is not probably not Wilson or Lawrence. 

We dont want to get jumped by anyone. Better to keep other teams guessing so no one pushes to move up if they love a specific guy and not another. Right now teams arent sure if they need to trade up or not. That angle is obvious.  

Until the jets trade sam darnold, you really cant rule anything out. They ultimately could decide that it would be better to get additional future draft capital, knowing they will have the ammo to do whatever they want in the following seasons, and that it may take them another year or two to stop picking in the top 10. Essentially, they may decide that they will have other opportunities to draft a QB this high again. Sure, the most likely scenario is that they draft a QB at 2, but that isnt a done deal until Sam is traded.

Also, one thing you need to remember - its not that the jets hired Saleh, its that they hired Mike LeFleur and that most, if not all of their offensive staff used to work for Kyle last year. So if word gets out that the niners like a specific player, there may be temptation for the jets to change their mind and copy their former boss' homework, or at least, let it influence their decision somehow. Especially when that former boss is in the top of his field. The jets are going to be chasing our shadow for a while. 

The jets may have a hunch of what KS will do, but he didnt start scouting these guys until January, and by then Saleh and LeFleur were already gone. I dont think the jets told the 49ers their plans for #2, and I dont think the niners want the Jets to know what their plan is. We need to continue to play poker with everyone, not just the teams behind us - the jets included.

I dont know if the league really thinks that we will take Mac Jones like Daniel Jeremiah claims. It doesnt matter if they believe it or not, its just that it means people will continue to simply guess which direction we are going between Lance, Fields and wilson, because if the consensus became something that was more plausible (as in, either fields, lance, or wilson) then teams would believe it and act on it. I know the media believes its mac jones, but I just dont think actual football people believe it lol (because it makes no sense!)

The 49ers made their move a month early. We did it partly to scout these guys and partly to have enough time to work on the Garoppolo deal (which I do believe is happening pre/mid draft). We are basically out of other moves to make, and we dont want other teams making a move that changes the board. 

Basically, we knew we had to bluff. I said earlier in the thread that we were bluffing with our Jones interest to not lose leverage with the dolphins, so we kinda just kept pumping the same rumor and it was an easy way to ride that momentum. Lastly, bluffing with someone who actually could be the pick would mean that there is an increased chance for something we didnt account for to happen. Status quo is best for us right now. No reason to show our cards right now and give other teams a clear chance to make other moves. 

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Posted (edited)

Honestly, our situation is set up for a rookie to hand the ball off, make simple throws, and win games with a strong defense early in the season. Seems like it will be a full camp. Kyle can get (mostly) anyone ready to play with a full offseason. 

I am all for saving money by moving JG this year. I have not waivered on that stance since before the season ended. 

We did not sacrifice any current draft capital to move up to #3. Trading him now for a late 2nd or 3rd in 21 isnt the best return we could get necessarily, but by making the QB change we would have actually gained current draft capital AND saved 50 million dollars towards next years cap (or 25, if you consider his 22 salary already off the books already since there is no doubt he will be gone). There is value in that 25m and the fact we can get another immediate starter out of it. 

I totally get the idea we hang onto him for another year and try and go win a superbowl, and I do think that a pissed off JG is the best JG, but we can still make a good run at this thing with a rookie. Hell, look at seattle in 2012. That experience was so so crucial for Russel Wilson to come back and hoist the lombardi in 2013.

I would be fine with taking some early lumps with a rookie. Lets not forget that there are 7 playoff spots from now on. Just need to get to the dance and anything can happen. 

Edited by N4L
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It will be very likely Mac Jones! GM and Head Coach did not visit Trey Lances Pro day nor Justin Fields Pro Day. As both said: they feel very well with THREE Quarterbacks. And which Pro Days did both visit? Right... Zach Wilson and Mac Jones! 
 

Maybe there is a little chance to get Zach Wilson. I can imagine that they had contact with Saleh during Zach Wilsons Pro Day. Maybe he told who they want to draft. It is at least curious that just a few hours after the Pro Day of Zach Wilson the trade of the picks was fixed with Miami...

I can imagine that the surprising athletic results of Mac Jones maybe lead to this move! Plus the excellent completion percentage in college which is very close to the stats by Joe Burrow! I like Mac Jones and from my perspective it is an understandable move.

Do you go all-in for a guy who played just 18 games in FCS? Don‘t misunderstand it, please - I like Lance! But I can‘t imagine such a move for him! And I also don‘t see this worth for Justin Field as well.

 

So I give the following chances:

90% Mac Jones - 7% Zach Wilson - 2% Justin Fields - 1% Trey Lance.

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55 minutes ago, N4L said:

Ultimately, trading so much for a QB who will require impeccable pass blocking seems like a mistake considering how our OL has pass blocked in the past. I dont think Kyle traded up for a QB who probably wont have the ability to establish himself as an elite QB at any point in his career. I am sure that Mac would be fine here, but you dont go up that far for "fine". So personally, I am going to cross snorkle mccorkle off the list of possible outcomes. It.aint.happening.  

I don't really agree with the take Jones need better pass blocking. Yeah he won't juke out a defender like Fields or Lance will do. However in terms of moving the pocket and sidestepping or stepping up to make a new pocket Jones is far better than either of those. In general the more athletic QB's get sacked more. With a guy like Mahomes his OT's are so important because he likes to drop back really far which puts extra strain on those OT's. With the Seahawks they have spend a ton or resources on that line and still people will watch them and say they are terrible while if you put someone like Brady behind it i am sure it looks way better. Getting rid of the ball quickly and knowing when to step up in time are what makes life easy on a O-line not being able to juke a guy out when he gets free. More importantly that juking and dodging really only is usefull when there is only one guy breaking free.

 

Edited by Justone2
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