3rd Overall Pick - Trey Lance vs Justin Fields (with bonus third poll option)

[Forge]

I'm not going to be upset with Lance, but damn, I want fields. Best combo of floor and ceiling

[Forge]

 

[TecmoSuperJoe]

4 hours ago, Forge said:

This is kinda weird lol 

Well you can't go too far with a 6th grader with psychological torture. 

At least Fields didn't get an F. 

[TecmoSuperJoe]

I voted Fields. He just looks like a playmaker on the field more so than the other options. 

[N4L]

1 hour ago, Forge said:

I'm not going to be upset with Lance, but damn, I want fields. Best combo of floor and ceiling

I absolutely agree with you here. 

The more I watch him the more I realize how he is such a good combination of fundamentally sound mechanics and rare athleticism. That represents both a high floor and high ceiling, as you said. 

Someone with a high floor makes it easier to risk multiple firsts to draft. As in, the worst case scenario is that he is a competent starter, so even if you dont hit the upside, you still have a QB who is good enough to win games. I know a lot of people think that you need to go for the absolute highest upside to justify paying such a high price, but you want to be sure that you are buying is quality. Fields ceiling is plenty high enough so that we dont feel bad about missing out on a chance to have Lance reach his potential here. 

So its a great combination of safe + upside.

I am becoming more and more confident that fields is the pick. I think I am going to put some money on it, actually. Someone said lance was the favorite? Man, give me plus money on fields all day long. 

[N4L]

I had a thought about the McCorkle Jones rumors. Here is the order of events:

1) Niners scouting all rookie QBs. Decide to make a switch

2) Niners realize they need to maintain the stance of "we are keeping garoppolo, we dont need to do anything at QB" to retain leverage while trading, and to prevent a QB needy team from jumping them etc etc

3) Consensus says the top 4 QBs are going in the top 7-8 picks

4) We realize we need to trade up into the top 5 to get the guy we want and start the negotiations with those teams. Per schefter we were working on this trade for 3 straight weeks  

5) Trade talks stall, word gets out the niners are trying to trade up, teams try to get us to pay a premium for a QB because they know we are moving on from Garoppolo. The draft is in a month and other teams arent in a rush to make a deal. 

6) Niners leak that Kyle is in love with McCorkle Jones, who will absolutely be available at #12. They do this as a way to gain leverage. Anyone else notice that these "Kyle may like McCorkle Jones" rumors started within the last 3 weeks? Which is coincidentally exactly when we started trying to trade up. Hell, I was even coming around to the idea of drafting him at 12. I was like, "well - not terrible if we really want a QB, at least we will save some $$$ by doing it." It was all about leverage in those talks. 

7) The media mouthpieces and other "sources" have been hearing how much Kyle likes McCorkle for the last few weeks. "The niners make a trade, it must be for the guy they have been telling us they like recently!!!" L O L 

J said in the other thread that the media is flip flopping because none of them have any clue. Even Maiocco has no clue. We all can only make our best guess, but trading up to #3 for the consensus 5th QB one month before the draft makes no freaking sense to me. I get it if you like McCorkle as a player, by all means trade up to get the guy you want, even if he is the consensus 5th QB, pull the trigger if you have him ranked #3... but do it on draft day. Have a little patience and jump up when he is the next QB on the board after the other 4 have been taken.

People keep wanting to bring up the Mahomes trade. The chiefs were realllly patient with that one. He was the third QB taken. They knew he would be the third QB taken, and waited to move up until Watson was taken. They probably would have given up more if they felt Mahomes was going to go higher, but they knew that the entire football world had Watson ahead of him, so they waited, and pounced. 

Its a different set of circumstances, but if McCorkle Jones was the target, then we should have just traded with the eagles on draft day.

[burlow]

7 minutes ago, N4L said:

I had a thought about the McCorkle Jones rumors. Here is the order of events:

1) Niners scouting all rookie QBs. Decide to make a switch

2) Niners realize they need to maintain the stance of "we are keeping garoppolo, we dont need to do anything at QB" to retain leverage while trading, and to prevent a QB needy team from jumping them etc etc

3) Consensus says the top 4 QBs are going in the top 7-8 picks

4) We realize we need to trade up into the top 5 to get the guy we want and start the negotiations with those teams. Per schefter we were working on this trade for 3 straight weeks  

5) Trade talks stall, word gets out the niners are trying to trade up, teams try to get us to pay a premium for a QB because they know we are moving on from Garoppolo. The draft is in a month and other teams arent in a rush to make a deal. 

6) Niners leak that Kyle is in love with McCorkle Jones, who will absolutely be available at #12. They do this as a way to gain leverage. Anyone else notice that these "Kyle may like McCorkle Jones" rumors started within the last 3 weeks? Which is coincidentally exactly when we started trying to trade up. Hell, I was even coming around to the idea of drafting him at 12. I was like, "well - not terrible if we really want a QB, at least we will save some $$$ by doing it." It was all about leverage in those talks. 

7) The media mouthpieces and other "sources" have been hearing how much Kyle likes McCorkle for the last few weeks. "The niners make a trade, it must be for the guy they have been telling us they like recently!!!" L O L 

J said in the other thread that the media is flip flopping because none of them have any clue. Even Maiocco has no clue. We all can only make our best guess, but trading up to #3 for the consensus 5th QB one month before the draft makes no freaking sense to me. I get it if you like McCorkle as a player, by all means trade up to get the guy you want, even if he is the consensus 5th QB, pull the trigger if you have him ranked #3... but do it on draft day. Have a little patience and jump up when he is the next QB on the board after the other 4 have been taken.

People keep wanting to bring up the Mahomes trade. The chiefs were realllly patient with that one. He was the third QB taken. They knew he would be the third QB taken, and waited to move up until Watson was taken. They probably would have given up more if they felt Mahomes was going to go higher, but they knew that the entire football world had Watson ahead of him, so they waited, and pounced. 

Its a different set of circumstances, but if McCorkle Jones was the target, then we should have just traded with the eagles on draft day.

So you are saying that we will take Dongie MacJones?

[49erurtaza]

1 minute ago, burlow said:

So you are saying that we will take Dongie MacJones?

No what he saying is we are not taking Jones it was used as smokescreen to cover us from rumors that we where trying to move up. 

[49to5er]

does anyone think Fields’ floor is pretty close to Dak Prescott? I just see some similarities in their game. I also feel like Fields it’s starting to get the same treatment Deshaun Watson got going into the draft. Both athletic quarterbacks who played at a very high-level for multiple years at a top college program. Both seen as guys who didn’t have the ability to process fast enough in the NFL. Much like Watson, I think Fields is being undervalued and his success at Ohio State is being under appreciated. 
 

I’m excited for his pro day and am hoping we have our regime in attendance. I think he will light it up. I’m still not convinced I want Fields more than Lance but I have been leaning more toward Fields over the last 24 hours. 
 

Side not on Lance...I hear comparisons between him and Josh Allen when Allen was at Wyoming. I went back and put on the tape for Allen at Wyoming and they’re not that similar. Allen was more of a gunslinger and continuously demonstrated the ability to roll out of the pocket and make throws across his body on a laser, much like he does in the NFL now. I’d say Allen and Zack Wilson are more comparable in college. Lance was pretty calculated within his system. He didn’t take a ton of risky throws and would elect to scramble before attempting a cross body heave ala Josh Allen. The big frame, mobility and big arm is there for both of them. Lance was more accurate than Allen and a better runner. I’m not saying Lance’s upside is not Allen-ish but they are different types of QBs. 

[757-NINER]

16 minutes ago, 49to5er said:

I also feel like Fields it’s starting to get the same treatment Deshaun Watson got going into the draft. Both athletic quarterbacks who played at a very high-level for multiple years at a top college program. Both seen as guys who didn’t have the ability to process fast enough in the NFL. Much like Watson, I think Fields is being undervalued and his success at Ohio State is being under appreciated. 

I can see that. I was guilty of being down on Watson his last year in college. I expected him to just kill it and he didn't. That made me step away from him a bit. 

I do feel like Fields is being undervalued a bit but I also believe Watson was a better prospect.

A part of me believes we made this trade because while positioning ourselves for the Watson sweepstakes, someone (Shanny, Lynch or Peters) had a revelation. We could give up the farm AND a young talented player like Bosa or Warner for Watson. OR we could use that draft captial to move up in the draft get our own version of Watson, while keeping our young, talented defender.

Edited March 28, 2021 by 757-NINER

[the-catch]

Man I have a feeling it's going to be Mac Jones. Remember the Mike McGlinchey rumors people were dismissing a few years back?? Or how about the Daniel Jones to NYG when most penciled in Dwayne Haskins there. 

I'm just hoping we somehow get Zach Wilson otherwise will play wait and see for the others. Still, prefer Fields, Jones, then Lance in that order. 

[Forge]

19 minutes ago, the-catch said:

Man I have a feeling it's going to be Mac Jones. Remember the Mike McGlinchey rumors people were dismissing a few years back?? Or how about the Daniel Jones to NYG when most penciled in Dwayne Haskins there. 

I'm just hoping we somehow get Zach Wilson otherwise will play wait and see for the others. Still, prefer Fields, Jones, then Lance in that order. 

I'm honestly not worried about Mccorkle Jones. I'm not ruling it out, but guys like Jones come around more often and are easier to find, I think. And I don't find them to have a better floor. No elite traits...I don't know how you spend that much capital for a guy with lowest ceiling. 

[the-catch]

Here's Chris Simm's take on the QBs

1. Wilson

2. Lawrence

3. Jones

4. Mond

5. Fields

6. Lance

[the-catch]

4 minutes ago, Forge said:

I'm honestly not worried about Mccorkle Jones. I'm not ruling it out, but Jones types come around more often and are easier to find, I think. And I don't find them to have a better floor. No elite traits...I don't know how you spend that much capital for a guy with lowest ceiling. 

Right there with you. If we wanted Jones, likely could've done the trade up to 6 and saved on some draft capital. 

[Forge]

28 minutes ago, 49to5er said:

does anyone think Fields’ floor is pretty close to Dak Prescott? I just see some similarities in their game. I also feel like Fields it’s starting to get the same treatment Deshaun Watson got going into the draft. Both athletic quarterbacks who played at a very high-level for multiple years at a top college program. Both seen as guys who didn’t have the ability to process fast enough in the NFL. Much like Watson, I think Fields is being undervalued and his success at Ohio State is being under appreciated. 
 

I’m excited for his pro day and am hoping we have our regime in attendance. I think he will light it up. I’m still not convinced I want Fields more than Lance but I have been leaning more toward Fields over the last 24 hours. 
 

Side not on Lance...I hear comparisons between him and Josh Allen when Allen was at Wyoming. I went back and put on the tape for Allen at Wyoming and they’re not that similar. Allen was more of a gunslinger and continuously demonstrated the ability to roll out of the pocket and make throws across his body on a laser, much like he does in the NFL now. I’d say Allen and Zack Wilson are more comparable in college. Lance was pretty calculated within his system. He didn’t take a ton of risky throws and would elect to scramble before attempting a cross body heave ala Josh Allen. The big frame, mobility and big arm is there for both of them. Lance was more accurate than Allen and a better runner. I’m not saying Lance’s upside is not Allen-ish but they are different types of QBs. 

His floor isn't dak. Every prospect has a possibility of washing out. If he struggles with field vision and processing, he can be a more athletic Daniel Jones. So there is some variance. You wouldn't have some nfl teams viewing him as a 4th rounder otherwise. 

Lance is tricky because of the lack of natural throwing ability. Josh allen's arm was always special. I don't view trey's as quite that high. His is more "great" to me. But Lance is also supposedly brilliant, running complex schemes etc, so mentally he's well beyond quite a few, especially given his age. Also, while he does do a one read pull down sometimes, that's not surprising given the talent disparity. He'll have to break the habit, but I don't have concerns on his processing or field vision outside of the random miss. There's some allen, some cam, hell, mentally I wouldn't rule out some luck coming out.