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3rd Overall Pick - Trey Lance vs Justin Fields (with bonus third poll option)


Which QB?  

90 members have voted

  1. 1. Which QB do you want the niners to draft?

    • Trey Lance
      13
    • Justin Fields
      48
    • Neither, I would rather shoot N4L in the face with a shotgun by drafting Mac Jones
      29
  2. 2. Should we keep Garoppolo for 2021

    • Yes
      62
    • No
      26

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  • Poll closed on 04/30/2021 at 01:00 AM

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It's all just smoke to try and get NYJ to overthink things and take Mac Jones at 2 so we have our choice of Wilson, Fields, & Lance. 

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12 minutes ago, GW21 said:

It's all just smoke to try and get NYJ to overthink things and take Mac Jones at 2 so we have our choice of Wilson, Fields, & Lance. 

Lol could you imagine?

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Just now, 49erurtaza said:

Lol could you imagine?

It would be the greatest troll move I could think of. My buddy is a Jets fan too, so although for his sake I hope they get better, It'd be impossible for me not to give him crap about it. 

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6 hours ago, TecmoSuperJoe said:

Shouldn't fans be rooting for Jimmy to go big regardless who is drafted?

This

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13 hours ago, Forge said:

I can't help it. I'm here for the insanity. I'm two seconds away from actively rooting for Mccorkle

Maybe I'm crazy, but I would legit cheer for him as the pick. I see a lot in him I really like. People are always saying he did so well because of those around him....but it goes the reverse as well. And I do believe those WRs who say Mac is better than Tua. I think Mac is and will be better than a lot of people say. 

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9 hours ago, 49erurtaza said:

I'm ok with this

 

Yes, I suggested this here a couple of days ago, but in the 2nd pick thread. I would be okay with it (and excited to get Wilson!), but that is a LOT of draft capital to toss around when all is said and done. 

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Geez Sage, I wonder why? I'm sure those two were always the first in and last out and wanted to achieve greatness more than any player in the locker room!!!!

Sage's quote about the custodian being the first in and last out was hilarious. Then basically said you are out of your mind if you think Favre was ever the first in and last one out LOL. 

Orlovsky should have known better to say that, even if he had been hearing that. So on brand and predictable against certain QBs. 

Edited by J-ALL-DAY
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44 minutes ago, Chrissooner49er said:

Maybe I'm crazy, but I would legit cheer for him as the pick. I see a lot in him I really like. People are always saying he did so well because of those around him....but it goes the reverse as well. And I do believe those WRs who say Mac is better than Tua. I think Mac is and will be better than a lot of people say. 

I think it would be a pretty bad pick compared to what is being left on the table. If Mac doesn't max out above the shoulders he's a total bust, and then there's a consideration on how much better he can actually be. It's not about what was around him...people don't understand how much the system improves him optically. There's a reason why true pocket passers aren't really a thing any more. When was the last truly successful pocket passer only became a top 10 QB? Derek Carr based on the last two years, but if you want a bigger sample, it is likely Matt Stafford. This is not a thing any more. Guys like Jones are always viewed as polished and they flame out just as much, which is why I said that he's not any safer than Fields / Lance. Christian Ponder was polished. Tua was polished and benched multiple times. These things cut both ways. Bortles was a traits guy and busted. Goff was a polished guy. Josh Rosen was an extremely "polished' prospect and is one of the bigger draft busts we have seen in a while. 

He's under pressure far less than any other QB in the class. He was only sacked 16 times. He's facing 3 or fewer pass rushers 10% of the time while Fields faces 3 or fewer on only 5%. Mac faces 6 or more pass rushers only 4.7% while Fields faces it 7.5%. Fields played tougher defensive opponents (Clemson, Northwestern, Indiana, Wisconsin all within the top 10 of FO DFEI) and based on SP+, he's thrown the most pass attempts against top 50 defenses of any prospect in the last decade with an average ranking significantly higher than the defenses Jones faced.

Almost 25% of Jones' attempts come from single read RPOs. 11% out of structure pass attempts means he can't create. 35% of his throws at or behind the line of scrimmage. He's clearly physically limited. Why the team would want to put a cap on the reasonable ceiling of the selection I will not understand. Compare those numbers to the heavy vertical base, long developing system that Fields is in and there's a reason why one guy looks like he processes so quickly and the other looks slower. 

The idea that he's pro ready / polished is a weird media narrative that I don't get. He's got the same amount of starts as Trey Lance and a handful of less pass attempts than Fields. There's really nothing to suggest that he's more adept at getting through progressions and his system is set up to be QB easy / friendly. He's accurate, but Fields is the most accurate passer that multiple people have charted. There is merit to the idea that Fields is a "see it, throw it" guy, but it's not like Mac is chucking it in there to tight windows. He only had 44 tight window throws in 400 attempts last year. Jones has an advantage with regards to cleaner, leaner mechanics. Fields does have a sometimes elongated motion that will slow down his passing. 

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Tim bringing some heat with that take yesterday. 

Tim can be an insufferable, arrogant troll at times, but he's not afraid to bring it lol 

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6 minutes ago, Forge said:

I think it would be a pretty bad pick compared to what is being left on the table. If Mac doesn't max about above the shoulders he's a total bust, and then there's a consideration on how much better he can actually be. It's not about what was around him...people don't understand how much the system improves him optically. There's a reason why true pocket passers aren't really a thing any more. When was the last truly successful pocket passer only became a top 10 QB? Derek Carr based on the last two years, but if you want a bigger sample, it is likely Matt Stafford. This is not a thing any more. Guys like Jones are always viewed as polished and they flame out just as much, which is why I said that he's not any safer than Fields / Lance. Christian Ponder was polished. Tua was polished and benched multiple times. 

He's under pressure far less than any other QB in the class. He was only sacked 16 times. He's facing 3 or fewer pass rushers 10% of the time while Fields faces 3 or fewer on only 5%. Mac faces 6 or more pass rushers only 4.7% while Fields faces it 7.5%. Fields played tougher defensive opponents (Clemson, Northwestern, Indiana, Wisconsin all within the top 10 of FO DFEI, and based on SP+, he's thrown the most pass attempts against top 50 defenses of any prospect in the last decade with an average ranking significantly higher than the defenses Jones faced.

Almost 25% of Jones' attempts come from single read RPOs. 11% out of structure pass attempts means he can't create. 35% of his throws at or behind the line of scrimmage. He's clearly physically limited. Why the team would want to put a cap on the reasonable ceiling of the selection I will not understand. Compare those numbers to the heavy vertical base, long developing system that Fields is in and there's a reason why one guy looks like he processes so quickly and the other looks slower. 

The idea that he's pro ready / polished is a weird media narrative that I don't get. He's got the same amount of starts as Trey Lance and a handful of less pass attempts than Fields. There's really nothing to suggest that he's more adept at getting through progressions and his system is set up to be QB easy / friendly. He's accurate, but Fields is the most accurate passer that multiple people have charted. There is merit to the idea that Fields is a "see it, throw it" guy, but it's not like Mac is chucking it in there to tight windows. He only had 44 tight window throws in 400 attempts last year. Jones has an advantage with regards to cleaner, leaner mechanics. Fields does have a sometimes elongated motion that will slow down his passing. 

This should be your copy/paste response about this topic for the next month, spot on.

I've seen a lot more push back from the media this morning about the 49ers and Mac. I might have to shut off everything NFL until the draft to keep my sanity.

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3 minutes ago, XScutterX said:

This should be your copy/paste response about this topic for the next month, spot on.

I've seen a lot more push back from the media this morning about the 49ers and Mac. I might have to shut off everything NFL until the draft to keep my sanity.

This whole thing will ebb and flow for the next 27 days. No one knows anything and people will talk in circles because they have to.

It's going to be a nauseating 27 days. 

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Just now, NinerNation21 said:

This whole thing will ebb and flow for the next 27 days. No one knows anything and people will talk in circles because they have to.

It's going to be a nauseating 27 days. 

It's definitely revealing about each person's process when they think about QBs more than the QBs themselves. A lot of folks are being revealed as very intellectually lazy. 

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24 minutes ago, Forge said:

Tim bringing some heat with that take yesterday. 

Tim can be an insufferable, arrogant troll at times, but he's not afraid to bring it lol 

I think this is starting to become more and more how i look at it. If we had stayed put at 12 or maybe a small trade up i would totally be on board with Mac because i think he can be legit good with Shanahan. With us giving up what we did i want to see what Shanahan can make off guys like Fields or Lance. 

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Just now, Justone2 said:

I think this is starting to become more and more how i look at it. If we had stayed put at 12 or maybe a small trade up i would totally be on board with Mac because i think he can be legit good with Shanahan. With us giving up what we did i want to see what Shanahan can make off guys like Fields or Lance. 

This is the important thing to remember, because I agree. I think so much success is based off situation and whomever we draft will likely end up pretty good. I think you're just leaving money on the table. 

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2 minutes ago, Forge said:

This is the important thing to remember, because I agree. I think so much success is based off situation and whomever we draft will likely end up pretty good. I think you're just leaving money on the table. 

To me it's not about Jones being good with Shanahan. ANY QB you take in the top 5 with Shanny should be good, but is that the end goal? You don't want go into high powered match ups with a QB and say to yourself, "you know what, even if our defense doesn't bring it, we have a QB that can out-duel the likes of Mahomes or Rodgers or Brady or Wilson?" Why continue to just hope for good QB play when you can get GREAT QB potentially and can have someone single handedly will your team to wins? Is Shanny's thinking that small that he just wants a good reliable QB for the next so and so years? Why go after QBs that will have a certain level of a ceiling? 

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