3rd Overall Pick - Trey Lance vs Justin Fields (with bonus third poll option)

[49ersfan]

3 hours ago, Forge said:

I swear that MM either knows we are taking Mac or he really wants us to lol

And the reasoning is just brutal still, only this time from tannenbaum

 

I listened to his podcast. While he was hedging, he seems pretty convinced we're taking Mac. As does Mike Tannebaum. However, Tannebaum's reasoning seemed to link it back to the play styles of former & current Shanny QB's (Schaub, Ryan, Jimmy G) & not necessarily any inside info, unless i misheard.

He views us going to his pro day as another sign of our interest. He also doesn't think we're running any smokescreen or anything like that.

[Forge]

34 minutes ago, 49ersfan said:

I listened to his podcast. While he was hedging, he seems pretty convinced we're taking Mac. As does Mike Tannebaum. However, Tannebaum's reasoning seemed to link it back to the play styles of former & current Shanny QB's (Schaub, Ryan, Jimmy G) & not necessarily any inside info, unless i misheard.

He views us going to his pro day as another sign of our interest. He also doesn't think we're running any smokescreen or anything like that.

Tannenbaum was awful. The reasoning, everything. I loved him talking about trading up for talent and character. Mac is the least talented and the only one with a character ding lol.

Talking about giving that up for a guy that won't "screw it up" lol. Like really? That's where we are at? Get to draw it up how you want and the target is, "won't screw it up"?  I'm all for it if people like Mac more as a prospect. I won't agree, but we don't agree with a lot of player evals. I don't like horn as much as Eric crocker, for example. 

But constantly going to this well of "he's shannys type" and "just get someone to execute the game plan and not mess up" is bad. Take him because he's the best at the position or don't take him. You can't "make sense" for one specific team at 3rd overall. If you're not good enough to make sense for any team looking to draft the position there, you're not good enough for that pick

[Forge]

55 minutes ago, 49ersfan said:

He views us going to his pro day as another sign of our interest. He also doesn't think we're running any smokescreen or anything like that.

I found this take interesting  because of I put any stock in his attendence, it would go the other way.  I take the pro day attendence to 100% mean the opposite. I'd want to go to the pro day of the guy I have more questions about, particularly with regards to his arm. I want to see how it pops. The accuracy. Etc. I mean, he privately worked out trubisky and didn't take him. I think you do stuff like that because you have questions. 

 

 

 

 

[Melbourne 9er]

11 hours ago, 49erurtaza said:

 

Reading this would point me to Jones rather than Fields even more. I can't remember where I saw the quote but I remember Shanny saying the reason that we don't throw many deep balls is because it is a low percentage play, whereas getting a short toss over the middle to a guy running into space was a much more high percentage play and kept the chains moving. 

[Forge]

52 minutes ago, Melbourne 9er said:

Reading this would point me to Jones rather than Fields even more. I can't remember where I saw the quote but I remember Shanny saying the reason that we don't throw many deep balls is because it is a low percentage play, whereas getting a short toss over the middle to a guy running into space was a much more high percentage play and kept the chains moving. 

My gut says it's more about Jimmy, but that's a real gut call and impossible to say for sure. We have the 9 balls queued up in scheme all the time. Jimmy doesn't throw them and he's not great at them. It's actually really frustrating to watch when you see it, ask @N4L. 

Kyle has always utilized a deep ball. In Atlanta, deep passes happened at a rate nearly double what Jimmy throws them at. Cj threw more balls 20+ yards then Jimmy did last year in 40 fewer attempts. 

Also, It's not like fields doesn't have a ton of rac because he's inaccurate. A lot of that is done up from scheme. He uses the area outside the hashes more than Mac for example. So you're talking digs, outs. Not great rac routes, though nines would be depending on when thrown. Mac uses the middle of the field more in contrast, which will absolutely appeal to shanny (though fields is completing like 80% of his passes over the middle, so not like it's a flaw in his game).

The point was basically showing that he was tasked with more on his shoulders, I think.

Whether that makes him a better choice? I dunno. I don't think anyone can deny Mac would be good with shanny, but I think all three would be (with Lance having the most risk)

 

[N4L]

8 hours ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

One reason I want Lance or Fields is being able to add that dimension of the read option in the RZ. That is so huge in the red zone and benefits dual threat QBs. Our RZ offense with Shanny has never been great and I think majority of the top RZ offenses in the league have a QB that can score with their feet. 

Great point, would be nice to have a high percentage play to base an entire RZ package around. So much can be schemed off of that, would really open up the field in an area where there is less space. 

RZ TD efficiency has been a problem with this offense in the past. It's partly because it relies so much on spacing and the field is condensed. It also hurts that we haven't had maulers on our OL. (side note, I expect Tomlinson to have a bounce back year with a quality C and T next to him. So, maybe we have success there)

I think it's also a play we can show early, make teams gameplan around it, then keep it in the back pocket to protect our QB from taking hits until the playoffs. Then just let it loose and really kill teams with it. 

[757-NINER]

5 hours ago, Forge said:

My gut says it's more about Jimmy, but that's a real gut call and impossible to say for sure. We have the 9 balls queued up in scheme all the time. Jimmy doesn't throw them and he's not great at them. It's actually really frustrating to watch when you see it, ask @N4L. 

Kyle has always utilized a deep ball. In Atlanta, deep passes happened at a rate nearly double what Jimmy throws them at. Cj threw more balls 20+ yards then Jimmy did last year in 40 fewer attempts. 

Also, It's not like fields doesn't have a ton of rac because he's inaccurate. A lot of that is done up from scheme. He uses the area outside the hashes more than Mac for example. So you're talking digs, outs. Not great rac routes, though nines would be depending on when thrown. Mac uses the middle of the field more in contrast, which will absolutely appeal to shanny (though fields is completing like 80% of his passes over the middle, so not like it's a flaw in his game).

The point was basically showing that he was tasked with more on his shoulders, I think.

Whether that makes him a better choice? I dunno. I don't think anyone can deny Mac would be good with shanny, but I think all three would be (with Lance having the most risk)

 

Oh, it's DEFINITELY about Jimmy. Look at the advanced stats from Shanny time in Atlanta and it's plain as day. When he had a capable deep ball thrower and the best WR at the time, he had no problems scheming up the deep pass. 

He adapted the offense to fit with Jimmy's skillset. Even when he first got here and he had Hoyer, we took more 'shots' deep. It's a part of his offense if he chooses it to be. He's skilled enough as a stragiest and play-caller to not depend on it though.

[49ersfan]

https://www.si.com/nfl/2021/04/05/mmqb-sean-payton-drew-brees-taysom-hill-jameis-winston-competition

Quote

I don’t believe many people know who the Niners are taking third. And I’ll punctuate that point by giving you this nugget: When Kyle Shanahan went to assistant coaches Mike McDaniel, Rich Scangarello and Bobby Slowik, among others, for assessments on the quarterback class in January and February, as he and John Lynch mulled a big move up the draft board, he didn’t share his own evaluation with those guys. And I don’t want anyone to take that as discrediting what anyone who’s close to Shanahan, like Chris Simms, says, because Simms, for one, has a really good read on what Shanahan wants in a quarterback. I just know the Niners have efforted to keep this one very close to the vest, even though they don’t necessarily have to anymore. If you’re asking me, Mac Jones might make the most sense for Year 1, Trey Lance for Year 4 and Fields as the player with the most talent of the three for Shanahan to mine. But that’s just me.

Quote

Eyes are on Atlanta and Detroit now. The first three picks are spoken for.

So 1, seems like only Shanny & Lynch know who they're taking. And 2, it seems like they're already set on their decision. 

[Forge]

12 minutes ago, 49ersfan said:

https://www.si.com/nfl/2021/04/05/mmqb-sean-payton-drew-brees-taysom-hill-jameis-winston-competition

So 1, seems like only Shanny & Lynch know who they're taking. And 2, it seems like they're already set on their decision. 

As they should have. That's why the entire pro day thing is just about meaningless. Now they are setting up another with Fields and trying to get one for Lance just so it's not any easier for people to know. 

It could be Mac Jones, which still makes no logical sense to me outside of "he's shanny's guy" (which can't be under emphasized given we have seen repeatedly his need to have his guys), it could be Fields or Lance. The reports are fun to talk about, but mostly that's all they are: talking points for us to have between now and the draft. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

13 minutes ago, 49ersfan said:

https://www.si.com/nfl/2021/04/05/mmqb-sean-payton-drew-brees-taysom-hill-jameis-winston-competition

So 1, seems like only Shanny & Lynch know who they're taking. And 2, it seems like they're already set on their decision. 

I've been saying this all along. I just can't believe people aren't seeing this....I don't even think Adam Peters knows who we are talking...Why? Because Shanny doesn't want ANYONE leaking and Peters has some people around the league he is close to and it's possible he will leak it out....as will others. 

Simms may be right that we take Jones, but it's not because Shanny told him that...If Shanny told him that, then Simms is intentionally not talking about Jones as much. 

[49ersfan]

1 hour ago, Forge said:

As they should have. That's why the entire pro day thing is just about meaningless. Now they are setting up another with Fields and trying to get one for Lance just so it's not any easier for people to know. 

It could be Mac Jones, which still makes no logical sense to me outside of "he's shanny's guy" (which can't be under emphasized given we have seen repeatedly his need to have his guys), it could be Fields or Lance. The reports are fun to talk about, but mostly that's all they are: talking points for us to have between now and the draft. 

Yeah, I've been waiting for someone to connect the dots in a persuasive way, or for an insider to drop the bombshell on who the pick is going to be, or something that confirms the pick one way or another.

But with now 24 long days to go, there's just going to be speculation & analysis on fits/non fits. 

I guess before the draft, the next (only?) thing to look forward to are the insider's mock drafts like King/Maiocco etc, which will probably be released in 3 weeks...

[GW21]

10 minutes ago, 49ersfan said:

Yeah, I've been waiting for someone to connect the dots in a persuasive way, or for an insider to drop the bombshell on who the pick is going to be, or something that confirms the pick one way or another.

But with now 24 long days to go, there's just going to be speculation & analysis on fits/non fits. 

I guess before the draft, the next (only?) thing to look forward to are the insider's mock drafts like King/Maiocco etc, which will probably be released in 3 weeks...

Supposedly Shanny hasn't even told his staff his evaluation of the QBs we are considering. I don't think King or Maiocco are going to be breaking this pick; I think it will be Roger Goodell this year.  

[49ersfan]

Good thread from Wagoner. Notes our heavy usage of PA under center, and looked at the 3 QB's PA usage 

Jones - 1.9% of dropbacks under center were PA

Fields - 5.8% of dropacks under center were PA

Lance - 24.3% of dropbacks under center were PA

 

[J-ALL-DAY]

Oh boy oh boy, these dudes better be right on this. I haven't seen anything like this lol. 

[CWood21]

1 hour ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Oh boy oh boy, these dudes better be right on this. I haven't seen anything like this lol. 

I'm starting to believe the Mac Jones-to-San Francisco suggestion.  Early on in the draft process, Carolina was reportedly in love with Mac Jones and they would take him at 8 if he were still there.  Obviously, San Francisco would need to jump ahead of Carolina in order to select Mac Jones.  Then the talk came out that the NFL community was higher on Mac Jones then the draftnik community.  And then San Francisco traded up to #3, which effectively guaranteed them three of Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, Trey Lance, and Mac Jones.  IF the 49ers truly had multiple QBs graded out similarly, they probably would have made a draft-day deal when the cost probably wasn't so prohibitive.  I think it's likely the 49ers have a pretty strong idea that Trevor Lawrence is going #1 and Zach Wilson is going #1, which means they have their pick of the other 3 QBs.  And today, Carolina effectively takes themselves out of the QB market, which means only Denver as a viable top 10 candidate to move up for a QB.