3rd Overall Pick - Trey Lance vs Justin Fields (with bonus third poll option)

[big9erfan]

3 hours ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

      And what kind of talent will he have around him in San Francisco?

We just traded away the franchise's future for this pick. The goal ought to be to pick someone that will be great and make the team competitive for a decade or more, not someone who will be an upgrade over Jimmy next year. We're not even sure Jimmy won't be the starter while this guy learns the system.

To address your question - no one knows.  You can't confidently name a single player that will be here 3 or 4 years from now let alone 10. Heck you don't even know how long Shanny will be here. The point is with this kind of investment you pick the best qb out there not someone with a sub par arm who had the best receiver and one of the best lines in the country and padded his stats by throwing a ton of super short passes while almost never being under pressure.

[Dr A W Niloc]

4 hours ago, big9erfan said:

Rhetorical question, but this kind of misses the point, or rather doesn't address it. Do you personally think any of these stats would be the case if he were playing at an average football program. My personal opinion that at an average program he would be seem as an above average QB who just might be worth a pick in the latter half of the first round.

      On an average team he would be the same excellent short and intermediate thrower he is now, with the same pocket awareness and unparalleled intelligence.  As you suggest, his results would be above average--better than expected.  Yes, it would be more difficult for Shanahan to recognize his unique abilities--"it's hard to fly when you're surrounded by turkeys"--but spotting that bump is Kyle's job.  Fortunately, playing in Alabama makes this a no-brainer for the 49ers.  Mac has proven he succeeds in a situation almost identical to that in San Fran.

     There are other college teams with fine QBs, receivers, O-Lines, and coaching.  None of those QBs are first in completions, first in deep yards, second [to Trevor Lawrence] in screen yards, with a 4% drop rate, the best sack avoidance among the top four QBs, etc.  Whether we go by these numbers or by watching tape the conclusion remains unavoidable:  Mac Jones has no equal when it comes to firing virtually undroppable passes to receivers who are in full stride, moving downfield and away from defenders.

[N4L]

23 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

(McCorkle has) unparalleled intelligence

Give me a break. His parents named him McCorkle, how smart can they really be? 

[757-NINER]

9 hours ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

      And what kind of talent will he have around him in San Francisco?

      Who have both been poor at the professional level in large part because they went from a great team to a mediocre one.  We are talking about Mac going to San Francisco.  Solid possession receivers.  Low ADoT.  Great defense, O-Line and coaching. 

      No one cares how well he'd do on other teams.  

      He doesn't have to be.  He just has to be the Missing Piece for San Fran.  Even PFF and NFL.com are mocking him at third while explicitly stating there are other highly rated choices.

      Based on the tape and numbers I disagree.

     Or deep throwing, which is why Mac Jones leads college QBs in deep yards.

     By threading the needle play after play Mac Jones shows that one can be a strong but not long passer.  (Similarly, the fact that he isn't a threat to run doesn't mean he's a "statue".)

Threadng the needle?? Excatly what film have you been watching?

Throwing with anticipation because you lack the arm strength is not threading the needle. Throwing to WRs who on average, had the best separation from the defenders in the nation is not threading the needle. The windows at the next level will get much smaller and evaporate much more quickly. Shanny will do his part in scheming guys open. But with inconsistency of our interior O-Line you need a QB who has the ability to make off schedule plays and deliver accurate passes under duress. Mac gives you none of the that imo. His ability to throw when facing the rush is a serious concern for me. Forget all the numbers that says he's money against pressure. Watch the tape and you'll see a guy who looks very suspect when he's moved off his spot and has to reset, add a hitch or has to evade.

And the intelligence angle for propping up Mac is pure hyperbole at this point. Google 'Justin Fields athletic apittude test'. But games aren't won on a standardized test so that's not even a big deal for me. But this narrative that Mac is so superior in processing/intelligence and is the more pro ready of the bunch is low hanging fruit at this point and has been debunked.

And calling both Hurts and Tua failures as pros is just a tad bit premature. They didn't get the luxury of coming into situations tailor-made for them to succeed at the next level. You're setting a pretty high bar for Mac to live up to. A bar that even coming into a situation like ours will be extremely hard to achieve instantly.

Edited April 13, 2021 by 757-NINER

[the-catch]

Kurt Warner breaking down the QBs starting w/ Trey Lance who he has as no 5.

 

Edited April 13, 2021 by the-catch

[y2lamanaki]

5 hours ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

      On an average team he would be the same excellent short and intermediate thrower he is now, with the same pocket awareness and unparalleled intelligence.  As you suggest, his results would be above average--better than expected.  Yes, it would be more difficult for Shanahan to recognize his unique abilities--"it's hard to fly when you're surrounded by turkeys"--but spotting that bump is Kyle's job.  Fortunately, playing in Alabama makes this a no-brainer for the 49ers.  Mac has proven he succeeds in a situation almost identical to that in San Fran.

     There are other college teams with fine QBs, receivers, O-Lines, and coaching.  None of those QBs are first in completions, first in deep yards, second [to Trevor Lawrence] in screen yards, with a 4% drop rate, the best sack avoidance among the top four QBs, etc.  Whether we go by these numbers or by watching tape the conclusion remains unavoidable:  Mac Jones has no equal when it comes to firing virtually undroppable passes to receivers who are in full stride, moving downfield and away from defenders.

Oh man, just wait until you see the college stats and highlights of Bryce Petty, Kellen Moore, Graham Harrell, Colt Brennan, and Matt Leinart. They will make you go "McCorkle who?"

I don't advise you check on their NFL careers, though. 

Give me the guy who can win both now AND after the mega contract he'll inevitably sign in 2024 that makes it impossible to sign other players that give him perfect surroundings. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

1 hour ago, y2lamanaki said:

Oh man, just wait until you see the college stats and highlights of Bryce Petty, Kellen Moore, Graham Harrell, Colt Brennan, and Matt Leinart. They will make you go "McCorkle who?"

I don't advise you check on their NFL careers, though. 

Give me the guy who can win both now AND after the mega contract he'll inevitably sign in 2024 that makes it impossible to sign other players that give him perfect surroundings. 

Random, but how would you feel that instead of giving Jones a big deal after his rookie contract is up, but the team trades him away and uses the additional compensation to trade up for the next cheap rookie QB? And keep this trend going and continue to stack the rest of the roster while still getting a top level QB in the draft? 

[NinerNation21]

This is pretty funny:

Last week, TDN had Mac Jones #3 and Fields #8 on their big board. Today, Fields is now #5 and Jones is #65. 😮

We've seen the national narrative shift away from Jones and it appears TDN not only following suit, but trying to bury Jones in the basement LOL.  

[49erurtaza]

2 minutes ago, NinerNation21 said:

This is pretty funny:

Last week, TDN had Mac Jones #3 and Fields #8 on their big board. Today, Fields is now #5 and Jones is #65. 😮

We've seen the national narrative shift away from Jones and it appears TDN not only following suit, but trying to bury Jones in the basement LOL.  

thas a huge difference lol

[NinerNation21]

Just now, 49erurtaza said:

thas a huge difference lol

It's an egregious difference. A bit excessive if you ask me. I'd probably have Mac somewhere in the 15-25 range on a big board and I'd feel comfortable picking him in the 10-20 range in the first round.

[49erurtaza]

3 minutes ago, NinerNation21 said:

It's an egregious difference. A bit excessive if you ask me. I'd probably have Mac somewhere in the 15-25 range on a big board and I'd feel comfortable picking him in the 10-20 range in the first round.

Yeah i would have been fine with it at 12. I am curious where he ends up going. Wouldn't surprise me if he is actually not as high as everyone thinks the NFL is with him.

[NinerNation21]

2 minutes ago, 49erurtaza said:

Yeah i would have been fine with it at 12. I am curious where he ends up going. Wouldn't surprise me if he is actually not as high as everyone thinks the NFL is with him.

My gut is telling me he ends up with either the Pats, Wash, or Bears. Vikings are a dark horse for me.

[Dr A W Niloc]

3 hours ago, 757-NINER said:

Threading the needle?? Exactly what film have you been watching?

     The same tape that brought Shanahan and Belichick halfway across the country to see Mac Jones.   

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Throwing with anticipation because you lack the arm strength is not threading the needle.

      Again, Mac's arm is strong, not long.  He doesn't put himself in a position where he needs to throw long.  Not that it matters in San Francisco, of course.  

      "Throwing with anticipation" and "threading the needle" are vital skills.  Would you prefer a bomber who can't do these things?  There's no shortage of them available.

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Shanny will do his part in scheming guys open.

       And Mac will do his part in throwing guys open.  It's what he does.

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And calling both Hurts and Tua failures as pros is just a tad bit premature.

       Agreed.  Which is why I didn't say that.  Hurts (PFF:39th, PPG:50th) and Tua (PFF:33rd, PPG:38th) "have both been poor at the professional level in large part because they went from a great team to a mediocre one."

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They didn't get the luxury of coming into situations tailor-made for them to succeed at the next level.

       In sharp contrast to Jones in S.F.  My point exactly.

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You're setting a pretty high bar for Mac to live up to. A bar that even coming into a situation like ours will be extremely hard to achieve instantly.

       No.  I didn't set any bar.  By being one of, if not the most QB-friendly team in the NFL, surrounded by the league's best talent, the 49ers have set the bar as low as it can be for a rookie QB. 

     Mac Jones could be considered overkill but this ain't beanbag.  There is no excuse for not taking the most suitable QB available.

[J-ALL-DAY]

Is the Fields pro day with Shanny running the show going to be televised or no? I'm guessing it probably won't? Which is kind of a shame.

[49erurtaza]

2 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Is the Fields pro day with Shanny running the show going to be televised or no? I'm guessing it probably won't? Which is kind of a shame.

Sounds like it wont be, my guess is someone will live stream it hopefully.