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3rd Overall Pick - Trey Lance vs Justin Fields (with bonus third poll option)


N4L

Which QB?  

90 members have voted

  1. 1. Which QB do you want the niners to draft?

    • Trey Lance
      13
    • Justin Fields
      48
    • Neither, I would rather shoot N4L in the face with a shotgun by drafting Mac Jones
      29
  2. 2. Should we keep Garoppolo for 2021

    • Yes
      62
    • No
      26

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  • Poll closed on 04/30/2021 at 01:00 AM

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1 hour ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

      The kind that benefits from a yards after catch approach more than a yardsticks-and-fall-down one.  

      A guy who is #1 in deep yards and #2 in screen yards, as opposed to one who is 20th and--brace yourself--111th respectively, is tied for 135th in average time to throw, and will be gone before Shanahan's pick.  

      The less said about a "dual threat" who runs a 4.92 40 and holds the ball for 3.37 seconds (dead last), the better.

      Exactly.  And with Mac Jones neither Kyle nor his players have to make any such wholesale adjustments in system or personnel.

      The difference is that while a raw QB would benefit from Shanahan, Shanahan will be benefiting from the most NFL-ready QB available.

      At the very least, it means they believe Shanahan thinks he's worth it.

      Well, they did trade up to #3 to replace Jimmy Garoppolo (PFF:28th, PPG:41st) and the rest of the team looks pretty good (when healthy) so...

How do you know the offense that Shanny wants to run is the one that he's currently running? 

The fact that you're bringing up "Dual Threat" as though it's a negative and ignoring the fact that Fields has been charted as having superior accuracy and ball placement than Mac Jones by several sources is kind of mind boggling. Insanely lazy narrative. He's a pocket passer who happens to be fast. "The less said"...just oof. The top 10 in time to throw last year (held on to the ball longest): Jalen Hurts, Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz, Patrick Mahomes, Kirk Cousins, Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan. Seems like more good than bad to me (or at least a metric that is completely inconsequential to the ability of QB) 

Imagine propping up a QB based on his screen yards lol. 

Also, there's nothing that supports that Mac Jones is pro ready, or at least more so than any of the others. "Pro Ready" is a subjective construct that has little meaning. Tua was pro ready. Josh Rosen was pro ready. Dak was a 4th round pick, not considered pro ready but somehow managed to play really well despite not being pro ready in any way, shape or form when he was drafted. 

Yes, they traded up to replace Jimmy...but Fields / Lance can just as easily be the "missing piece". That's the problem with using such a vague reason to draft someone. 

But you're the dude who said that the fact that New England wants Jones is not the least of reasons why the niners would want him. Totally cool if you just like him as more as a prospect. We dont' need to agree on that. We have plenty of posters in here who like Jones more as a prospect; people who's opinion I value and don't discount.  I get that evaluation. I don't agree, but that's fine. But some of your reasoning has been brutal over the last couple of weeks. 

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2 minutes ago, big9erfan said:

Everyone has their comps for Jones. I've heard Brady and Ryan as comparisons. Yes, they are not athletic, but they both had way better arms than Jones. I'm actually thinking Chad Pennington.

Funny you should mention that. I was just thinking about the Mac Jones - Chad Pennington connection last night. Obviously I haven't seen any Pennington for years, and I think his shoulder injury really impacted his arm strength, but that was something that definitely crossed my mind when thinking about Mac.  

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32 minutes ago, GW21 said:

Funny you should mention that. I was just thinking about the Mac Jones - Chad Pennington connection last night. Obviously I haven't seen any Pennington for years, and I think his shoulder injury really impacted his arm strength, but that was something that definitely crossed my mind when thinking about Mac.  

The first I heard it was Nate Tice, I think. It's honestly not a bad comp in terms of physical skill set for sure. I like when people pull comps from way back (way back...Pennington was drafted in 2000 lol) 

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16 minutes ago, Forge said:

The first I heard it was Nate Tice, I think. It's honestly not a bad comp in terms of physical skill set for sure. I like when people pull comps from way back (way back...Pennington was drafted in 2000 lol) 

I was 10 in 2000. lol that was a while ago. 

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52 minutes ago, Forge said:

How do you know the offense that Shanny wants to run is the one that he's currently running?

     What efforts has Shanahan initiated to make the 2021 49ers look more like Atlanta than the 2020 49ers?

Quote

The fact that you're bringing up "Dual Threat" and ignoring the fact that Fields has been charted as having superior accuracy and ball placement than Mac Jones by several sources is kind of mind boggling.

     Concentrate on the data, not its manipulations.  Jones (1st) and Fields (3rd) are close in completion rate and Justin is flinging it further downfield (ADoT tied for 46th versus tied for 97th).  

     So why are the yardage totals so lopsided in Mac's favor (other than better receivers)?

     Hint:  Moving targets are harder to hit.

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2 hours ago, y2lamanaki said:
4 hours ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Random, but how would you feel that instead of giving Jones a big deal after his rookie contract is up, but the team trades him away and uses the additional compensation to trade up for the next cheap rookie QB? And keep this trend going and continue to stack the rest of the roster while still getting a top level QB in the draft? 

I don't know, honestly. I've been torn on this concept for a while. I'm open to the idea, but I can also think of a lot of drawbacks. Namely, it requires you to be able to draft/develop a winning NFL QB twice, and most teams have a heck of a time doing it once. Then you probably only have a three-year window thanks to our complicated scheme. You also probably have to be certain that the guy you trade is worth the team with the #1 overall pick giving that up, or possibly a little lower if there are multiple good QBs like this year (though, 2018 was also a "great" class of QBs, so that's a variable too). And then you have to be concerned about the effect on the locker room. If this year's QB wins two Super Bowls and can't get a second contract from the team, what are the other guys going to think?

It does appear that teams with QBs on rookie contracts are the way to go currently, but I'd also argue the only currently accurate predictor of whether or not you can win a Super Bowl is whether or not you have Tom Brady. When (if????) Brady retires, that might create an entirely new paradigm.

I might sound more against than not, but I truly haven't made up my mind yet. 

We are one of the only places where playing moneyball with QBs *could* work. Everyone thought we could do it when Mullens was playing well early in the season. We have the scheme, the run game, defense, and YAC weapons to have someone play "point guard" at QB and simply execute the offense by getting the ball out to the playmakers. 

The issue with this is that its very hard to have 21 top flight starters everywhere but QB for extended periods of time. In addition to this, we saw what happened with Mullens later in the year. His play dragged the entire team down. It wasnt just that he wasnt making plays, it was that he was making negative plays by turning the ball over. Those were killer. 

So I just cant see how Kyle could endure multiple losing seasons of CJB and NM and think - "you know what, I can win with anyone". That doesnt make sense to me. If anything, it would be the opposite - "I am tired of carrying these lesser QBs".

So, while I am sure we could and will win games with Mac Jones over the next 3-4 years, what happens when Trent williams retires? What happens when McStinky gets abused on the right side and we have a guy who can not escape pressure? What happens when guys like kittle get older? Basically, what happens when this elite core we currently have, is no longer elite? Will Mac be a guy who makes the team better? 

Stylistically, a guy like Mac will really limit our team building. As in, he will need to be surrounded by a certain type of player. Fields gives us much more wiggle room with how we can construct our team down the road. You would think that flexibility would be attractive to a coach who is also in charge of personnel. 

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2 hours ago, big9erfan said:

Read a mock this morning that had Fields going 2 to NYJ. The gist of the writeup is that GMs sometimes overthink things and want to find that "hidden gem" that guy that the rest of the world under-estimated. It strokes their egos to find that guy. The scary thing to me is that Kyle has that kind of mentality written all over him. He is always trying to prove he is smarter than everyone else. His personality might just push him off of making the "obvious choice".

And if that were to happen, Wilson would be there for the taking!

Image result for and there was much rejoicing gif

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1 hour ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

What efforts has Shanahan initiated to make the 2021 49ers look more like Atlanta than the 2020 49ers?

Maybe trade up for Fields or Lance, eh? Hard to initiate those efforts when you have the QB it's not suited for. Interesting ot note that when CJ was in, he threw more passes down field than Jimmy did depsite fewer attempts, and there were even QB runs called. 

1 hour ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

Concentrate on the data, not its manipulations.  Jones (1st) and Fields (3rd) are close in completion rate and Justin is flinging it further downfield (ADoT tied for 46th versus tied for 97th).  

     So why are the yardage totals so lopsided in Mac's favor (other than better receivers)?

     Hint:  Moving targets are harder to hit

Its also harder to hit a target while you yourself are moving, something Mac is not good at and Fields is very good at (Shanny likes to use those boots if we are going to talk scheme fit) 

A main difference here would be the yards after catch, which is what I'm assuming you're pointing at. But the problem here is that you are basically trying to present a case where all rac producing routes are kinetic, and all non rac producing routes are static. That is not the case. A bubble screen is a high RAC play...he's not a real moving target tough.  A 12 yard out to the far has is absolutely a moving target and tight window throw, but not necessarily done to generate yards after the catch. Same for a corner post.  Jones ran 34% of his passes at or behind the line this year. Thats a ton, and not necessarily always a moving target. Those routes are highly conducive to yards after the catch (there's a reason that 17 of the top 20 leaders in yards after the catch are running backs. 

I'd also argue the difficulty in throwing to moving targets when they aren't covered all that well. Given the limited number of tight window throws and completions Mac Jones had, it's a valid counter, though Fields isn't exactly known for tight window throws either. But we do know how accurate Fields is at basically anything 5+ yards. That's not an advantage that Jones has here. They are both insanely accurate.  There's also scheme diversity to take into account (just because OSU didn't run as many of certainly plays as Alabama did, such as slants, doesn't mean that Fields would be bad at them). 

Mac could be the choice, I don't think anyone denies that, and if he is, the reason needs to be that they evaluated him as the superior player. All of the other crap is precisely that...crap. Scheme fit, preferences....no. Kyle just needs to feel he's the better player. 

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