3rd Overall Pick - Trey Lance vs Justin Fields (with bonus third poll option)

[49erurtaza]

5 minutes ago, Forge said:

No, I think it's just sound if I really don't think the pick is Mac (which I don't). Lance is +450 right now. If he's at +500 (which is what I'm hoping for on Thursday), then I can put down a small amount that basically covers both the Fields and Lance bet and still keeps me at +255 on the Fields bet, which is still significantly higher than what he's running now (+180) 

Yeah I think that's pretty safe tbh. 

[Forge]

Just now, 49erurtaza said:

Yeah I think that's pretty safe tbh. 

Generally I don't like to bet both sides, but the hedge is so small here and I feel good enough about the pick not being Mac that I think its probably okay in this instance. 

[Dr A W Niloc]

48 minutes ago, Forge said:

Its also harder to hit a target while you yourself are moving

      Then don't move.  Set and throw in 2.51 seconds, as Mac does.  This is why Jones is first among the top 4 QBs in pressure to sack rate with 12.3% (compared to Justin's abysmal 25%).  That Mac is #1 in completion rate throwing this quickly is astounding.

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They are both insanely accurate.

     Yes, but the yards after catch suggest different types of routes (which can be confirmed by observation).  The mad bomber who throws sixty yards downfield to a tracking WR might enjoy a target radius of over 10 yards.  A stationary receiver facing his QB might present a 10+ foot radius (at the cost of being drilled shortly thereafter).  An NFL receiver on a quick break, heading downfield with a defender one or two steps away might present a target area of 10 inches. 

      If the completion rates are anywhere near equal, which QB is the most accurate?

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Kyle just needs to feel he's the better player.

     ...for San Francisco, yes.  That Jones might struggle on 30 of the other teams in the league is irrelevant.

[Forge]

7 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

      Then don't move.  Set and throw in 2.51 seconds, as Mac does.  This is why Jones is first among the top 4 QBs in pressure to sack rate with 12.3% (compared to Justin's abysmal 25%).  That Mac is #1 in completion rate throwing this quickly is astounding.

Solid plan. I'm sure that there will be no transition issues with that whatsoever. 

[49ersfan]

1 hour ago, Forge said:

This is terrible in my opinion 

One of the rumours before was that the Falcons liked Lance. I believe both King & Breer have mentioned it, as has Allbright

If the Falcons attend this pro day but not Lance, than that strongly hints that Lance is the leading contender at least. With all the hedging & backtracking on Mac recently, it makes me think his hype is a lot of fluff. 

My initial thought was Lance was our pick anyway. I've switched my mind a million times so far & will probably switch another million before our pick is made, but my personal gut feeling is its Lance. He operates the offense the way Shanny likes & i believe Breer mentioned that some scouts said before last season that Lance fit our offense the best. He's also the closest to Josh Allen which is someone Shanny gushed over after our game against him, and also someone that Shanny wished entered the 2017 draft. 

If Fields top end projection is Deshaun Watson & Lance's top end projection is Josh Allen, than thats fine with me. I'd prefer Lance/Allen anyway.

Edited April 13, 2021 by 49ersfan

[Forge]

1 minute ago, 49ersfan said:

If the Falcons attend this pro day but not Lance, than that strongly hints that Lance is the leading contender at least. With all the hedging & backtracking on Mac recently, it makes me think his hype is a lot of fluff. 

 

According to Russini, they'd attended every QB pro day.

[49ersfan]

Just now, Forge said:

According to Russini, they'd attended every QB pro day.

Interesting.

I feel like i could interpret all this stuff a million different ways lol 

[Forge]

lol

[J-ALL-DAY]

Trey has been my guy all along but I feel like it may end up being Fields. Changing my percentages for now:

45% Fields

40% Lance

15% Jones 

[Forge]

1 minute ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Trey has been my guy all along but I feel like it may end up being Fields. Changing my percentages for now:

45% Fields

40% Lance

15% Jones 

Oh no! Not you too, J! 

[Forge]

Tim has done a fairly good job of trying to be open to all possibilities, even while being an insufferable twit about it 

[J-ALL-DAY]

5 minutes ago, Forge said:

Oh no! Not you too, J! 

Just think Shanny wants the high potential type… but also the one with a lesser chance to bust. Lance may end up being the best of them if he reaches his potential, but there is a chance that does not happen.

So once again, Shanny wants his cake (high potential QB) and wants to eat it to (less chance of busting). 

[Ftn49]

19 minutes ago, Forge said:

Tim has done a fairly good job of trying to be open to all possibilities, even while being an insufferable twit about it 

Fantastic article 

[49ersfan]

24 minutes ago, Forge said:

Tim has done a fairly good job of trying to be open to all possibilities, even while being an insufferable twit about it 

Matt Barrows said it too, that the Niners basically traded up because they're comfortable with Jones at 3, but are still doing their diligence on Lance & Fields. Shanny himself hinted at this when he said that they loved 3 guys but they could still get there with 4 & 5. Maybe that was coach speak, but the rest of his presser was pretty honest 

It would also lend credence to the rumours floating out there that Shanny & Lynch have some disagreement with the pick. I don't buy that scouts are involved because i don't think they know, i think its Shanny, Lynch, Peters, York, & Marathe. 

I also found these paragraphs interesting

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However, it’s important to note that Shanahan has shown adaptability at QB, and it happened right in front of us. He was planning for Cousins, went 0-8 to start his 49ers career and then Bill Belichick called at the trade deadline and offered him Jimmy Garoppolo for a second-round pick. Garoppolo has never been a scrambler, but at the time, he wasn’t really known at all, and Shanahan switched up the 49ers’ QB future pretty much on a dime.

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I think it takes a while to adjust the process like this. Shanahan got there in 10 minutes when it was time to acquire Garoppolo and bypass Cousins. I think a month is more than enough to bypass Jones and get there on Fields or Lance. I think the pick will be Fields, and let’s see those pro days.

 

[J-ALL-DAY]

Back on Lance @Forge!!!!!

Seriously though, I will stick it through with Lance. I keep going back to his age and how he's THE guy Shanny gets to personally mold into whatever he wants him to. Lance does so many good things but he's not all the way there and I think Shanny kind of likes that.

50% Lance

40% Fields

10% Jones

LOL!