2021 NFL Draft

[abstract_thought]

On 4/2/2021 at 6:03 PM, G08 said:

Don't forget, too, that Sam Darnold and Marcus Mariota will be FAs in 2022.

Getting excited about retread QBs that will be available next offseason... The plight of a Bears fan. 😫

[Superman(DH23)]

2 hours ago, dll2000 said:

Random thoughts on Mac Jones:

How much of Mac hate is based off 1) Pictures showing body with no definition, 2) him not being a ‘mobile qb’ 3) past Alabama QBs not doing well and Tua not looking good last year (system QB)?

There is no upside to Mac is what I hear from NFL fans (mostly 49ers fans right now - but I think it would be same with any team drafting Mac).   No upside - reason: limited athleticism.  

But just short years ago CW was every running QB had to be converted to a pocket passer in NFL.  And it was true.   Because zone reads and RPOs are now a thing - every QB has to be able to run ball right? 

Well no people say ...  But he has to be able to scramble like Wilson or Rodgers!   Rodgers seem to do a ton better last year when he scrambled a lot less and played on time within the offense.  

If Brady was coming out this year he wouldn’t even be drafted or even be an UDFA in all likelihood.  No upside.  No athletic ability.   

What do people want these days?  Are Brady, Marino and Bledsoe the do-do bird?   You haven’t seen many of them at H.S. Level in 15-20 years.  Every HS coach wants a kid who can run and none a pure pocket passer.  Hard to find a kid to recruit that is a pure pocket passer even if you wanted one.  

I have expressed serious reservations on Mac as well.  Because he played at Bama with a defense that will keep him in every game and WRs that are better than every DB they face and an OL and Running game that says you probably don’t even need to throw the ball to win games.

But none of that is fair to Mac.   I just, if I did take time evaluate him, would find him a really tough evaluation.    I think all star game practices would go a long way in that regard.

Are we so sure that Mac or Macs of world have no upside?   

The assumption is great coaching can mold the great athlete, but only so much you can do with a not fast guy (bad athlete).    But what does position call for?   What is number one trait of an NFL QB at end of day?  Processing speed right?  (And sufficient arm talent to do something with it).   The latest IBM chip.   

Why do we assume the great athletes can all get there with good coaching when so few of them actually do?     Maybe we are concentrating too much on wrong talent.   It is isn’t straight intelligence since not all smart guys can do it and not all average intelligent guys can’t.  

We need to quantify that talent potential somehow.   But its like finding a great potential musician before he has learned to play.   Not so easy, but is doable I think.   Requires outside the box thinking though.  

Maybe if you took a Mac Jones or someone like him and you upgraded an innate talent (assuming he has one) for heightened processing speed and he has the higher upside than the bigger, faster runners.       

Just an interesting thought experiment as I finish my breakfast.  

    

 

 

My evaluation of Jones:  No above average traits, save for maybe IQ, but as a fan that isnt something we can evaluate.  He never faced any pressure, so his lack of mobility in and out of the pocket was never tested or exploited.  His WRs were running wide open all game long, sometimes w/o a defender even in frame.  His accuracy #s look good, but from the evaluation it's hard to tell if he was actually accurate or the beneficiary of playing with far superior offensive talent across the board.  

As for bringing up Brady, dude Brady was a 6th round pick.  Pick #199.  Not far off from being a udfa back in 2000, the heyday of the pocket passing statue.  Yes if the exact same Tom Brady came out today that came out in 2000, he would be a UDFA

[Heinz D.]

3 hours ago, dll2000 said:

How much of Mac hate is based off 1) Pictures showing body with no definition, 2) him not being a ‘mobile qb’ 3) past Alabama QBs not doing well and Tua not looking good last year (system QB)?

The Mac hate is quickly evaporating, but the bulk of it falls under your number one up there. Kind of weird, really. I mean, he's the top rated college QB, who lead his team to the national championship. 

3 hours ago, dll2000 said:

The assumption is great coaching can mold the great athlete, but only so much you can do with a not fast guy (bad athlete).    But what does position call for?   What is number one trait of an NFL QB at end of day?  Processing speed right?  (And sufficient arm talent to do something with it).   The latest IBM chip.   

That's pretty much it, and that's why Shanahan and Lynch are considering taking Jones. Also--Sarkisian said that he'd never incorporated as much of his overall offense with a college QB before. Jones has got the knack, and he's a helluva learner, too.

3 hours ago, dll2000 said:

Maybe if you took a Mac Jones or someone like him and you upgraded an innate talent (assuming he has one) for heightened processing speed and he has the higher upside than the bigger, faster runners.       

I also don't know why people think that Jones won't work out more when he becomes a professional athlete. He'll get stronger, he'll get faster. Any team considering drafting Jones will chat with him and make him commit to that. 

[G08]

3 hours ago, abstract_thought said:

Getting excited about retread QBs that will be available next offseason... The plight of a Bears fan. 😫

Yep. I endured the Cubs and got a World Series Championship out of it. I'll endure these a-holes too 😆🤔😭

[dll2000]

20 minutes ago, Heinz D. said:

The Mac hate is quickly evaporating, but the bulk of it falls under your number one up there. Kind of weird, really. I mean, he's the top rated college QB, who lead his team to the national championship. 

That's pretty much it, and that's why Shanahan and Lynch are considering taking Jones. Also--Sarkisian said that he'd never incorporated as much of his overall offense with a college QB before. Jones has got the knack, and he's a helluva learner, too.

I also don't know why people think that Jones won't work out more when he becomes a professional athlete. He'll get stronger, he'll get faster. Any team considering drafting Jones will chat with him and make him commit to that. 

Some people work out a lot and just don't have genetics to look like they do.  

1 hour ago, Superman(DH23) said:

My evaluation of Jones:  No above average traits, save for maybe IQ, but as a fan that isnt something we can evaluate.  He never faced any pressure, so his lack of mobility in and out of the pocket was never tested or exploited.  His WRs were running wide open all game long, sometimes w/o a defender even in frame.  His accuracy #s look good, but from the evaluation it's hard to tell if he was actually accurate or the beneficiary of playing with far superior offensive talent across the board.  

As for bringing up Brady, dude Brady was a 6th round pick.  Pick #199.  Not far off from being a udfa back in 2000, the heyday of the pocket passing statue.  Yes if the exact same Tom Brady came out today that came out in 2000, he would be a UDFA

Larger point  is Brady is GOAT or in team photo without any elite athletic skills.

Really you could say same about P. and E. Manning.   They couldn't run to save their lives, not like their dad or nephew.   They all have strong arms, but not elite arm strength.   Montana could run and scramble, but had an average NFL arm (strength wise).  

But a 2020 HS kid with E. Manning or T. Brady physical skills isn't getting the gig in 98% of colleges now (without a famous last name).  

How do you identify a QB with Brady or a Manning's 'upside'?    Answer is you don't, unless you try to figure out a way to quantify and identify it rather than throwing darts.

 

 

 

[G08]

45 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

How do you identify a QB with Brady or a Manning's 'upside'?    Answer is you don't, unless you try to figure out a way to quantify and identify it rather than throwing darts.

It's funny you said this, I can't for the life of me understand why some team or company hasn't devised a VR program which gauges a QBs ability to read coverages / make throws vs various coverages.

Hell, I don't know why they don't have that for a team's playbook against every potential coverage out there. Just keep running it over and over and over. There are your reps.

[HuskieBear]

2 hours ago, G08 said:

Yep. I endured the Cubs and got a World Series Championship out of it. I'll endure these a-holes too 😆🤔😭

how quickly the rickets have completely lost all the good will they got for winning the world series is almost more impressive than not winning a world series in 108 years

[Superman(DH23)]

1 hour ago, dll2000 said:

Some people work out a lot and just don't have genetics to look like they do.  

Larger point  is Brady is GOAT or in team photo without any elite athletic skills.

Really you could say same about P. and E. Manning.   They couldn't run to save their lives, not like their dad or nephew.   They all have strong arms, but not elite arm strength.   Montana could run and scramble, but had an average NFL arm (strength wise).  

But a 2020 HS kid with E. Manning or T. Brady physical skills isn't getting the gig in 98% of colleges now (without a famous last name).  

How do you identify a QB with Brady or a Manning's 'upside'?    Answer is you don't, unless you try to figure out a way to quantify and identify it rather than throwing darts.

 

 

 

Sadly there may not be a place long term for QBs w/ a Brady skillset anymore.  You and I both know for years the best athlete on the team has played QB at the lower levels.  That has permeated college football as well now, and we are seeing the end result of that at the NFL level.  No, not every guy is going to be LJ and run that glorified triple option, but you have to be able to escape pressure and move from the spot.  That doesnt mean running for 80 yard TDs bit it does mean being able to out leverage the defense and pick up a first on 3rd and medium.  My biggest issue w/ Jones lack of athleticism isnt that he cant break away from defenders.  It's that I dont believe he can move the pocket and I have seen no evidence of him being able to work his feet inside the pocket bc he simply doesnt have to.  And TB is an exception.  His willingness to be patient and take what's given to him and wait for an opportunity to kill shot is really unparalleled.  That was the entire basis of the Tampa 2.  Make the opponent go 80 yards in 14 plays.  Most offenses arent patient enough to do it.  Brady will take 30 plays to do it if he has to, he doesnt care.  His favorite target is the open guy.  How you beat Brady is by flustering him with pressure up the middle in his face.  He cant move off the spot.  So in order for Mac Jones to be successful, he has to be equal to Brady in mental makeup, what is the odds of that ever occurring?

[Heinz D.]

1 hour ago, G08 said:

It's funny you said this, I can't for the life of me understand why some team or company hasn't devised a VR program which gauges a QBs ability to read coverages / make throws vs various coverages.

Hell, I don't know why they don't have that for a team's playbook against every potential coverage out there. Just keep running it over and over and over. There are your reps.

I wonder how teams do figure that stuff out? Is it all anecdotal? 

[dll2000]

5 hours ago, Heinz D. said:

I wonder how teams do figure that stuff out? Is it all anecdotal? 

White board it.   Like you see in QB school or camp BS.  

All different when bullets are flying though.  

VR is a good idea.   Put a timer on it.  Add rushers that randomly beat their guy or blown protections.  Like training a fighter pilot.    

[abstract_thought]

16 hours ago, dll2000 said:

White board it.   Like you see in QB school or camp BS.  

All different when bullets are flying though.  

VR is a good idea.   Put a timer on it.  Add rushers that randomly beat their guy or blown protections.  Like training a fighter pilot.    

All that stuff is good but I still don't think it makes the process a no-brainer.

You just never know how a 21 year-old will respond to the distractions, the adversity, the money, etc.

[G08]

Some good stuff in here:

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2021-nfl-draft-superlatives-quarterbacks-trevor-lawrence-justin-fields-trey-lance-mac-jones

[G08]

Does anyone have a pulse on which teams are looking to take a QB in this draft?

JAX

NYJ

SF

ATL ?

MIA?

DEN?

PHI?

MIN?

NE

WFT

CHI

PIT?

NO?

[dll2000]

On 4/6/2021 at 11:47 AM, abstract_thought said:

All that stuff is good but I still don't think it makes the process a no-brainer.

You just never know how a 21 year-old will respond to the distractions, the adversity, the money, etc.

Yes but no one is measuring mental processing speed as a trait.  When it seems to be a huge factor in NFL QB success.

Instead we are over emphasizing athletic prowess as prime, when Brady, P. Manning and J. Montana prove that it isn’t necessary to be greatest athlete on field.   

It is not same thing as high IQ or educational achievement.  People with average IQ can have high processing speed at something.  Though I would think more people with high intelligence would have high processing speed more so than others generally speaking.  

It is difference between a great fighter pilot (before computers) and an average one.  A great speed chess player and an average one, etc.

  Red Baron, Great sword fighters, etc. were probably not intellectual geniuses, but genius of the skills of their craft - nor were they just great athletes.  

You need knowledge of skill in question to form neural pathway in your brain, but then people with greater potential can shorten that pathway to greater extent than others.  Allowing them to think faster and better than their opponent in that skill in heightened time and under pressure.  

The brain acts like a muscle.   Use it and it gets stronger and faster, don’t use it and it gets weaker.  Think about math.  You may have been good at Geometry in 10th grade, but if you tried it 20 years later without use you will struggle with a problem.  Practice and you get faster again as pathways within brain rebuild.  

Some people have greater muscle potential than others.  Some people can develop certain pathways better than others.   

Same is true of Quarterbacks.   Identify the Brian skill and potential of that skill that lets QBs excel at quickly processing alignment of DBs pre and post snap could be as important, nay more important, as arm strength and 40 time.  

They are young men with hidden potential that can be coached up to faster processing speeds.  Of course you need a minimum of athletic skill and arm talent to go with it.

[Heinz D.]

10 minutes ago, G08 said:

Does anyone have a pulse on which teams are looking to take a QB in this draft?

With the Falcons, there seems to be a pretty even split among the draftniks, some convinced they'll take Ryan's replacement, the rest convinced otherwise. I think the latter group is probably right, as there is a whole basket of reasons to try to get back to the Super Bowl with Ryan, and the only explanation the pro-replacement draftniks come up with for their position is, "The Falcons don't plan on picking this high again for a long time." How many teams plan to pick that high? And Ryan hasn't really shown signs of slowing down--their problem last year was that Julio got hurt, and the rest of the team stinks. 

The Dolphins and the Eagles clearly are going to try to ride with the QBs they have. They wouldn't have traded down otherwise. Some folks think the Lions pick one high--I doubt that, as they would have tried to trade Goff, or trade up themselves. The Broncos will if they get the chance. I doubt the Panthers or Vikings do. Patriots? Who knows. You'd think they would have last year, and they re-signed Cam. WFT? You got me.