2021 NFL Draft

[soulman]

Call me a pessimist if you like but IMHO we should be well past drafting "high upside" by now since virtually every "high upside" pick Pace has made in the early rounds has failed to hit his mark.

If they can keep the defense at the top, build a top flight OL, and have productive RB, TE, and at least one sure #1 type WR all that should be needed to complete the picture is an accurate and efficient passer.

I would in no way bet on the "upside" of a Trey Lance over the higher floor of a guy like Mac Jones or even Davis Mills.  IMHO back in 2018 we may have done even better with an Andy Dalton than Mitch.

Hell, we made it to the Super Bowl in 2006 with Rex F'n Grossman.  His "deer in the headlight" play against GB in the season finale should have told us all we needed to know about his future as an NFL QB.

And again IMHO teams propelled by uber athletic running QBs can provide a lot of regular season excitement but how many have won Super Bowls vs more accurate pocket passers with enough mobility to move a pocket around to buy time?

Pace will do what Pace will do but for my money we'd be far better off to not follow the thinking that got us Mitch Trubisky and stay focused on the smarter college QBs who've shown they can manage their offenses efficiently.

Edited April 18, 2021 by soulman

[topwop1]

13 hours ago, WindyCity said:

You can make a big move for Lance. The upside is insane.

Jones I agree. That would be too much.

I don't care who they take I just want whichever player they take to turn into a good NFL QB that can be a starter for this team for a long time. Is that too much to ask?

[Heinz D.]

1 hour ago, topwop1 said:

I don't care who they take I just want whichever player they take to turn into a good NFL QB that can be a starter for this team for a long time. Is that too much to ask?

Nope.

We're going to have to wait and see what Pace does with the hand he's been dealt. At least there are a lot of good options out there. 

[beardown3231]

1 hour ago, Heinz D. said:

Nope.

We're going to have to wait and see what Pace does with the hand he's been dealt. At least there are a lot of good options out there. 

There are? Lawrence and Wilson are going 1 and 2. Either Jones, Fields or Lance are going 3.

That leaves 2 guys at #4. 

Who are you categorizing in "a lot" exactly? Please don't say Mills, Mond, or Trask. The probability that either of those three are a "good NFL starter for a long time" isn't close to promising

[Heinz D.]

1 hour ago, beardown3231 said:

Who are you categorizing in "a lot" exactly? Please don't say Mills, Mond, or Trask. The probability that either of those three are a "good NFL starter for a long time" isn't close to promising

You can assign grades to prospects however you'd like. That's what this is all about.

Prepare yourself to be disappointed. 

[beardown3231]

9 minutes ago, Heinz D. said:

You can assign grades to prospects however you'd like. That's what this is all about.

Prepare yourself to be disappointed. 

You think 1 of those 3 guys will be "good starting QB's for a long time?"

Every year, fans of every team think they can find a good starter in round 2-7 and it rarely ever happens. For every Dak or Brady there are dozens of scrubs. 

The Bears need to take a QB in the first 3 rounds but the odds of that player being good are slim to none.

[Heinz D.]

18 minutes ago, beardown3231 said:

You think 1 of those 3 guys will be "good starting QB's for a long time?"

There's a decent chance. We'll see.

18 minutes ago, beardown3231 said:

Every year, fans of every team think they can find a good starter in round 2-7 and it rarely ever happens.

That's clearly an exaggeration. Kind of a weird one, too. 

19 minutes ago, beardown3231 said:

For every Dak or Brady there are dozens of scrubs. 

Can't really argue with that. 

21 minutes ago, beardown3231 said:

The Bears need to take a QB in the first 3 rounds but the odds of that player being good are slim to none.

I'll agree that it's not a best case scenario kind of deal. I won't go beyond that, though. 

[WindyCity]

5 hours ago, topwop1 said:

I don't care who they take I just want whichever player they take to turn into a good NFL QB that can be a starter for this team for a long time. Is that too much to ask?

Likely, but you have to keep trying 

[WindyCity]

2 hours ago, beardown3231 said:

There are? Lawrence and Wilson are going 1 and 2. Either Jones, Fields or Lance are going 3.

That leaves 2 guys at #4. 

Who are you categorizing in "a lot" exactly? Please don't say Mills, Mond, or Trask. The probability that either of those three are a "good NFL starter for a long time" isn't close to promising

It is a long shot. But it is better than the 0% chance Andy Dalton does anything.

We are in low probability Hail Mary territory. Pace’s incompetent has pretty much left us with1 bullet in the chamber.

[beardown3231]

9 minutes ago, Heinz D. said:

There's a decent chance. We'll see.

That's clearly an exaggeration. Kind of a weird one, too. 

Can't really argue with that. 

I'll agree that it's not a best case scenario kind of deal. I won't go beyond that, though. 

You don't think fans of every NFL are making mock drafts for their teams where they take Mond or Mills in round 2, Newman in round 4, or even guys like Book in round 6 hoping that they either become Dak or even a Garoppolo situation where they can some day trade him for a top 64 pick?

Yeah, it's not an exaggeration at all. I bet you can find a Chiefs mock easily where they're taking a QB late "who can maybe impress in preseason that can be flipped in a few years for a higher pick."

[Heinz D.]

12 minutes ago, beardown3231 said:

You don't think fans of every NFL are making mock drafts for their teams where they take Mond or Mills in round 2, Newman in round 4, or even guys like Book in round 6 hoping that they either become Dak or even a Garoppolo situation where they can some day trade him for a top 64 pick?

No, I don't. Most teams have a decent QB. They wouldn't even think of taking a guy in round 2. 

[beardown3231]

17 minutes ago, Heinz D. said:

No, I don't. Most teams have a decent QB. They wouldn't even think of taking a guy in round 2. 

Well the Pats did years ago and they had the best ever in his prime. GB did in round 1 last year. So just to clarify, when you said "there are a lot of good options," you think Trask, Mond or Mills are those options and you think there's a "decent" chance that at least 1 is a good, long term NFL starter?

[Heinz D.]

Just now, beardown3231 said:

So just to clarify, when you said "there are a lot of good options," you think Trask, Mond or Mills are those options and you think there's a "decent" chance that at least 1 is a good, long term NFL starter?

Yes.

Doesn't mean Pace will pick the right guy, though. 

[Bowler1215]

On 3/28/2021 at 12:33 PM, dll2000 said:

I think Pace is trying as we speak to trade up with Atlanta, Bengals, Miami or Detroit.   He has to get in front of Carolina for Fields.   Only thing that guarantees that is trading with Atlanta (assuming 49ers don’t want Fields as is being widely reported).

 

I wouldn't be surprised if he was as well.  Pace thinks we;re in win now mode.  I think our offense is in rebuild mode.  Dalton is serviceable for this year.  Moving up for anyone would really tick me off with all our needs.  We're not a couple pieces away, we're several.  If we keep our eight picks, we can get a couple quality starters(hopefully more) and some good depth.  Pace thinks eight picks is way too much and would likely trade up, even giving up future picks like he's done for 4 straight years.  I hope Pace keeps his cool and draft the best offensive player at 20(unless we trade back)  But Pace has been secretive about trades.  No one knew he was trading up for Trubisky until an hour before the draft in 2017.  No one knew about the Mack trade until it happened.  I hope we keep our picks, but with Pace who knows.

[WindyCity]

26 minutes ago, Bowler1215 said:

I wouldn't be surprised if he was as well.  Pace thinks we;re in win now mode.  I think our offense is in rebuild mode.  Dalton is serviceable for this year.  Moving up for anyone would really tick me off with all our needs.  We're not a couple pieces away, we're several.  If we keep our eight picks, we can get a couple quality starters(hopefully more) and some good depth.  Pace thinks eight picks is way too much and would likely trade up, even giving up future picks like he's done for 4 straight years.  I hope Pace keeps his cool and draft the best offensive player at 20(unless we trade back)  But Pace has been secretive about trades.  No one knew he was trading up for Trubisky until an hour before the draft in 2017.  No one knew about the Mack trade until it happened.  I hope we keep our picks, but with Pace who knows.

We are a QB away.

Everything else is secondary.