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14 hours ago, abstract_thought said:

The cost absolutely hurts you in team-building. The modern formula is to win during your QB's rookie contract. Trading future picks hurts you in the near short-term.

Ending up with a Carr-level QB in this case isn't a good outcome. He's good enough to warrant a 2nd contract but not good enough to win without a great supporting cast. Having an elite QB is worth paying for. Having an above-average QB is only good if he's on a rookie contract and you preserve your assets to build a great team around him.

I think all 5 presumed first round QBs in this draft should be better than Carr, but your point is understood. But then, what would you be willing to pay for a potential franchise QB if tanking isn’t an option, especially if the plan is for that QB to be on a rookie deal during our potential title window? Relying on the 6th or 7th best QB prospect in this draft becoming a superstar isn’t likely a plan that leads to prosperity. With a 2nd/3rd round QB we maybe aren’t even seeing him on the field until year 2, and then even if he’s awesome right away (not likely) we only have 2 years before we’re looking to have to extend him because there’s no 5th year option after round 1.

To me, trading away a single future #1 pick if I think I’m getting that stud with 5 years of pre-2nd contract control is well worth it. You’re talking about sacrificing one unknown player from building the team going forward for what you’re expecting is 15 years of stability at QB. I don’t think there’s a team in the league without a franchise QB already that wouldn’t give up this and next year’s first round pick for a franchise QB. If you’re not going to bottom out like the Jags and Jets you’re either going to have to pay a high price or get really lucky in a later round. 

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On 3/28/2021 at 12:50 PM, Heinz D. said:

Apparently a lot of folks are totally sold on Lance. Which is puzzling. 

Cannon for an arm, handles a ton of pre snap stuff. Mentally, he runs an nfl offense already. Concepts, protections, etc. Supposedly very, very smart.

Reads the field pretty well, quick processor, and you're seeing him do it all at 19. At 19, fields hadn't thrown a pass on college and Mac Jones was getting arrested for duis. 

The biggest problem is that he's not naturally accurate and mechanically I wonder if he doesn't have to be reworked some. 

I prefer fields, but Lance is a realistic possibility that I'd be okay with. I'm assuming Jones doesn't have a real shot, but can't remove him completely

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9 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

I think all 5 presumed first round QBs in this draft should be better than Carr, but your point is understood. But then, what would you be willing to pay for a potential franchise QB if tanking isn’t an option, especially if the plan is for that QB to be on a rookie deal during our potential title window? Relying on the 6th or 7th best QB prospect in this draft becoming a superstar isn’t likely a plan that leads to prosperity. With a 2nd/3rd round QB we maybe aren’t even seeing him on the field until year 2, and then even if he’s awesome right away (not likely) we only have 2 years before we’re looking to have to extend him because there’s no 5th year option after round 1.

To me, trading away a single future #1 pick if I think I’m getting that stud with 5 years of pre-2nd contract control is well worth it. You’re talking about sacrificing one unknown player from building the team going forward for what you’re expecting is 15 years of stability at QB. I don’t think there’s a team in the league without a franchise QB already that wouldn’t give up this and next year’s first round pick for a franchise QB. If you’re not going to bottom out like the Jags and Jets you’re either going to have to pay a high price or get really lucky in a later round. 

It really comes down to how you view the prospect. I don’t think I view Jones as being that franchise level QB. I don’t view him as a 15 year starter. And if he’s more Kirk Cousins than Aaron Rodgers, the future picks will be vital to putting talent around him while he’s still on a rookie deal.

I think the alternative is to try to win one last time with the current core and then rebuild organically with a new regime.

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7 hours ago, Forge said:

Cannon for an arm, handles a ton of pre snap stuff. Mentally, he runs an nfl offense already. Concepts, protections, etc. Supposedly very, very smart.

Reads the field pretty well, quick processor, and you're seeing him do it all at 19. At 19, fields hadn't thrown a pass on college and Mac Jones was getting arrested for duis. 

The biggest problem is that he's not naturally accurate and mechanically I wonder if he doesn't have to be reworked some. 

I prefer fields, but Lance is a realistic possibility that I'd be okay with. I'm assuming Jones doesn't have a real shot, but can't remove him completely

Lance definitely has all the tools you look for.  The problem is there just isn't a big enough sample size to be confident in taking him with a high selection...IMO.

We've seen many HWS QB's like him in the past who look really nice with all the prototypical things you want in an NFL QB but then when it comes to actual in game ability they struggle.

Bears got burned on this with Mitch.

That said I think Lance can be a very good QB in the NFL under the right circumstances.

Here's to hoping that whoever drafts Lance that he will be afforded the luxury of time to develop properly and not have all the pressure to win in year 1.

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Everyone hyping this BYU kid.   Watched his pro day and some game tape of him last night.   I had my doubts because no one talked about him until recently.  

I guess so many media people and ‘experts’ are sheep waiting for other people to tell them someone is good and then they jump in and use their opinion as their own.    They won’t go out on that limb by themselves.   

He is impressive.  First he looks the part - in stark contrast to Mack LOL.    Handsome, well-built, great hair - makes me want to root for Mack to be the man.

I think why people who know things like him is he has obvious fast twitch and a really quick release which is a huge advantage in playing QB.   Every 1/10th of sec matters as DBs and LBs are watching you to enter space where your eyes and arm go.   Windows close faster the fast the defense.  NFL is super fast.   He combines his fast twitch with a really compact throwing motion and makes it even faster.

Fast twitch isn’t being fast.  Often fast people have it.   More its a fast reflex.  Many who have it also have an elongated throwing motion which pretty much eliminates the advantage.    

BYU kid (cant remember his name - Wilson that’s it) has both the compact throw and the fast twitch.  I don’t know if he will succeed in NFL, that is so much situation, but he definitely has the physical tools to do so.   More so than vast majority of prospects I have seen.    

Be interesting to see how he does.  

 

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1 minute ago, dll2000 said:

Everyone hyping this BYU kid.   Watched his pro day and some game tape of him last night.   I had my doubts because no one talked about him until recently.  

I guess so many media people and ‘experts’ are sheep waiting for other people to tell them someone is good and then they jump in and use their opinion as their own.    They won’t go out on that limb by themselves.   

He is impressive.  First he looks the part - in stark contrast to Mack LOL.    Handsome, well-built, great hair - makes me want to root for Mack to be the man.

I think why people who know things like him is he has obvious fast twitch and a really quick release which is a huge advantage in playing QB.   Every 1/10th of sec matters as DBs and LBs are watching you to enter space where your eyes and arm go.   Windows close faster the fast the defense.  NFL is super fast.   He combines his fast twitch with a really compact throwing motion and makes it even faster.

Fast twitch isn’t being fast.  Often fast people have it.   More its a fast reflex.  Many who have it also have an elongated throwing motion which pretty much eliminates the advantage.    

BYU kid (cant remember his name - Wilson that’s it) has both the compact throw and the fast twitch.  I don’t know if he will succeed in NFL, that is so much situation, but he definitely has the physical tools to do so.   More so than vast majority of prospects I have seen.    

Be interesting to see how he does.  

 

I watched him against a medicore South Carolina team and came away pretty unimpressed. I think he has the skillset but I'm not sure if he has the big game and mental experience to produce at the next level.

At the same time, choosing a QB is a total crap shoot, there was nothing I saw in Justin Herbert's college performance that would make me thing he would end up being this good as a pro. 

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35 minutes ago, topwop1 said:

Lance definitely has all the tools you look for.  The problem is there just isn't a big enough sample size to be confident in taking him with a high selection...IMO.

We've seen many HWS QB's like him in the past who look really nice with all the prototypical things you want in an NFL QB but then when it comes to actual in game ability they struggle.

Bears got burned on this with Mitch.

That said I think Lance can be a very good QB in the NFL under the right circumstances.

Here's to hoping that whoever drafts Lance that he will be afforded the luxury of time to develop properly and not have all the pressure to win in year 1.

After the recent success of QBs like Herbert, Allen, and Tannehill, I think teams are re-thinking this. For awhile you had several HWS busts and looking for intangibles was the en vogue idea. Now everyone is looking for the next Mahomes or Allen.

It’s kind of funny how unoriginal most NFL teams are, especially when going against the grain is how those teams landed Mahomes and Allen in the first place.

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Our best chance for success at QB still seems to be blockbuster trade for Wussel or getting really really lucky in the draft.  We need some incredible luck in which a QB falls or even more of a longshot: a day 2 or 3 guy turns out to be good.  

I hate that I'm watching Kyle Trask tape at work today, eat a ****, Ryan Pace. 

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1 hour ago, topwop1 said:

Lance definitely has all the tools you look for.  The problem is there just isn't a big enough sample size to be confident in taking him with a high selection...IMO.

We've seen many HWS QB's like him in the past who look really nice with all the prototypical things you want in an NFL QB but then when it comes to actual in game ability they struggle.

Bears got burned on this with Mitch.

That said I think Lance can be a very good QB in the NFL under the right circumstances.

Here's to hoping that whoever drafts Lance that he will be afforded the luxury of time to develop properly and not have all the pressure to win in year 1.

That's where I'm at as well. I understand his selection, but I'm still hoping more for Fields and that's what I'm expecting by a hair more (thought it switches daily between he and Lance). Lance is by far the furthest from his ceiling, and the further you are from your ceiling, the more wonky and volatile the projection gets. I don't like that kind of risk in the top 3. The niners did it with Solomon Thomas as well. 

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10 hours ago, Forge said:

The biggest problem is that he's not naturally accurate and mechanically I wonder if he doesn't have to be reworked some. 

He's got kind of a loopy throwing motion, doesn't he? It's been quite a while since I watched him, but I seem to remember coming away with that impression.

But my main concern with him is just sample size. Nobody's seen enough of him, I think. 

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11 hours ago, Forge said:

Cannon for an arm, handles a ton of pre snap stuff. Mentally, he runs an nfl offense already. Concepts, protections, etc. Supposedly very, very smart.

Reads the field pretty well, quick processor, and you're seeing him do it all at 19. At 19, fields hadn't thrown a pass on college and Mac Jones was getting arrested for duis. 

The biggest problem is that he's not naturally accurate and mechanically I wonder if he doesn't have to be reworked some. 

I prefer fields, but Lance is a realistic possibility that I'd be okay with. I'm assuming Jones doesn't have a real shot, but can't remove him completely

This was everything I said about Stephen Morris from the U. Played in a pro system for 4 years. Under center a lot. Rocket launcher. Then mid senior season I finally started seeing what everyone else did. Josh Freeman might be a better comp.

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1 hour ago, Heinz D. said:

He's got kind of a loopy throwing motion, doesn't he? It's been quite a while since I watched him, but I seem to remember coming away with that impression.

But my main concern with him is just sample size. Nobody's seen enough of him, I think. 

He 100% does. He tends to drop his upper half at times, there's a weird angle in my opinion on his actual release...I don't love it. 

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3 minutes ago, Forge said:

He 100% does. He tends to drop his upper half at times, there's a weird angle in my opinion on his actual release...I don't love it. 

The way he sticks his back leg out way behind him always makes me think someone is going to land on it.  

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