49ers QB Situation: What Would YOU Do?

[Dr A W Niloc]

54 minutes ago, AkronsWitness said:

I think the 2 most concerning things with Jones (which are completely justifiable) are that he doesnt have the elite arm talent that some of the other guys have. He is accurate and makes good reads quick, but he doesnt have nearly the high level pop 'wow' throws that others do.

Mac's arm is strong but not long.

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He doesn't do anything that is over the top on any sort of consistent basis.

Exactly.  He just marches the ball up the field like a machine.  Hence the paucity of highlight reels.

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Secondly, he is a statue of a QB in today's NFL.

    As the elusivity numbers indicate, Mac Jones is as far from a statue as he is from a running threat.

    As one of my favorite geeks quipped: 

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"Maybe the home team fans will be happier with a QB whose 'strengths' amount to the ability to overthrow our receivers and outrun our protection."

 

[Awsi Dooger]

2 hours ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

In the end, we'll have to get over the fact that Shanahan will have traded up to #3, only to waste that opportunity on a QB who was 1st overall in completion rate, deep yards, and QBRating, 2nd in screen yards, 2nd among the top five in toss time, and 1st among the top five in sack avoidance and drop rate.  (And wasn't terrible in the other three categories.)  Worse, Kyle made this blunder while watching video of the QB hitting his fifth read in less than 3 seconds. 

It's an outrage!

And all of that equated to 11.2 YPA.

Again, this isn't difficult. Subjectivity can be thrown away midseason when a draft eligible quarterback is sustaining 11 YPA. That player is going to be drafted extremely high, no matter the obsession with tape.

The word tape is a laughable rationalization in the first place. I could understand it if tape had a competent track record. But it is beyond hilarious to hear and read tape tape tape given the astronomical bust rate via a process relying for decades on tape. 

[Dr A W Niloc]

9 minutes ago, GW21 said:

Not trying to cherry pick here, but this isn't something I would be super proud of. It kind of plays into the narrative that he was surrounded by talented players that would create for him. 

And the 49ers are chopped liver?

Let that be the narrative, if we must.  We are talking about going to the most talented team in the NFL.  That being the case, do 49er fans want a machine who will win every game in which the team is favored?  Or a One Man Band who will try to win on his own?

As Tina said:  "We don't need another hero."

 

 

[GW21]

6 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

And the 49ers are chopped liver?

Let that be the narrative, if we must.  We are talking about going to the most talented team in the NFL.  That being the case, do 49er fans want a machine who will win every game in which the team is favored?  Or a One Man Band who will try to win on his own?

As Tina said:  "We don't need another hero."

 

 

In comparison to Alabama in college football? Yes. Don't get me wrong, I love who we have, but I don't think anyone would equate our skill players and O-line to the Alabama of the NFL. 

[y*so*blu]

Hire Adam Gase. He'll coach Jimmy to greatness in no time. 😜

[Dr A W Niloc]

1 minute ago, GW21 said:

In comparison to Alabama in college football? Yes. Don't get me wrong, I love who we have, but I don't think anyone would equate our skill players and O-line to the Alabama of the NFL. 

Comparing the 49ers (when healthy) to the other 31 NFL teams.

While we're on the subject, here's a friendly tip if you're into Fantasy Football:  Don't stretch to take any Alabama receiver unless they've been drafted onto the same team as Mac Jones.  (Take MJ late.)

[GW21]

5 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

Comparing the 49ers (when healthy) to the other 31 NFL teams.

While we're on the subject, here's a friendly tip if you're into Fantasy Football:  Don't stretch to take any Alabama receiver unless they've been drafted onto the same team as Mac Jones.  (Take MJ late.)

I don't buy it. There are a number of better O-Lines and WR duos than the 49ers right now. Our O-line looks to be improved this year with the Mack acquisition, but our right side is still pretty weak. Aiyuk and Samuel have awesome potential and have definitely flashed, but neither has yet to play a full season, and we don't really have any wideouts we can count on outside of them. Kittle may be the best TE in the game depending on who you ask - I say yes - but his availability has also been questionable to this point.

[Dr A W Niloc]

9 minutes ago, GW21 said:

I don't buy it. There are a number of better O-Lines and WR duos than the 49ers right now. Our O-line looks to be improved this year with the Mack acquisition, but our right side is still pretty weak. Aiyuk and Samuel have awesome potential and have definitely flashed, but neither has yet to play a full season, and we don't really have any wideouts we can count on outside of them. Kittle may be the best TE in the game depending on who you ask - I say yes - but his availability has also been questionable to this point.

    The O-Line significantly underperformed last year, especially in pass protection, albeit without falling before average.  Even without any more additions I expect them to play much better in 2021 (if healthy).  Ditto the WRs, though I wouldn't be surprised to see a WR with a quick release and reliable hands taken as early as #43 or #103. 

     Agreed on Kittle.  If anyone doubts he's a top two Tight End now have them check back after a year with Mac Jones.

     Who knows?  Maybe after 2021 we won't have to asterisk every mention of the 49ers with "if healthy".

 

[GW21]

6 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

    The O-Line significantly underperformed last year, especially in pass protection, albeit without falling before average.  Even without any more additions I expect them to play much better in 2021 (if healthy).  Ditto the WRs, though I wouldn't be surprised to see a WR with a quick release and reliable hands taken as early as #43 or #103. 

     Agreed on Kittle.  If anyone doubts he's a top two Tight End now have them check back after a year with Mac Jones.

     Who knows?  Maybe after 2021 we won't have to asterisk every mention of the 49ers with "if healthy".

 

Well to go back to my original point. As it stands right now, our O-Line and WRs in the pro game are no where close to the caliber of Alabamas O-Line and WRs in comparison to the rest of the NCAA or even the SEC. 

[Dr A W Niloc]

9 minutes ago, GW21 said:

Well to go back to my original point. As it stands right now, our O-Line and WRs in the pro game are no where close to the caliber of Alabamas O-Line and WRs in comparison to the rest of the NCAA or even the SEC. 

    Understood.  Mobility within the pocket ("Pressure to Sack Conversion Rate":  12.3% versus 25% for that other guy) and quick release time (2.51s, 27th versus 3.11s, 135th) will be even more important at the NFL level.

[Forge]

6 hours ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

    Understood.  Mobility within the pocket ("Pressure to Sack Conversion Rate":  12.3% versus 25% for that other guy) and quick release time (2.51s, 27th versus 3.11s, 135th) will be even more important at the NFL level.

You keep using that quick release time as if holding on to the ball is a bad QB tendency.  Here are the top 10 QBs in time to throw last year (QBs who held on to the ball the longest)  

1. Jalen Hurts
2. Baker Mayfield
3. Josh Allen
4. Lamar Jackson
5. Russell Wilson 
6. Carson Wentz
7. Patrick Mahomes
8. Kirk Cousins
9. Joe Flacco 
10. Matt Ryan

That's a whole lot more good than bad. Aaron Rodgers has notoriously been one who has been accused of holding on to the ball too long throughout his career. Its something a lot of good quarterbacks do because they are trying to make things happen. This isn't atypical. 

Here are the guys who got rid of the ball more in line with Mac's release: 

1. Big Ben
2. Fitzmagic
3. Andy Dalton
4. Brandon Allen
5. Nick Foles
6. Rivers
7. Tua
8. Haskins
9. Brady
10. Jimmy 

That's a whole lot of people who basically throw the ball at the LOS and checkdown constantly + the GOAT + whatever the hell Fitzmagic is. It's a lot of backups, guys who got benched, and meh starters outside of Brady. 

I would expect the 3.11 to come down a little  just due to increased check down and built in sight adjustments / hot routes along with a variance in scheme, but he's often going to be up there and it's a double edged sword, not strictly good or bad

[Dr A W Niloc]

4 hours ago, Forge said:

You keep using that quick release time as if holding on to the ball is a bad QB tendency.

     But it is a bad QB tendency on a short passing team like San Francisco.  It means the QB is not using anticipation.  It means the QB is thinking about his feet, not his throw.  It means that seam-ripping, the very essence of a successful low ADot offense, is no longer a feature.  That leaves the QB incurring a lot of sacks, injuries to everyone on the field, dinking-and-dunking, and stationary targets with few or no yards after catch.  This leads to low yardage totals not just for screens (Justin's 111th versus Mac's 2nd) but deeper throws (20th versus 1st) as well.

     Just today someone posted a Fields video illustrating all of this in lurid detail:  the QB was more than half a second late on every throw (causing him to be hurried on every play), often to the wrong receiver, didn't use the breaks, threw into contact, and never caught a single receiver in full stride.

     Shanahan is reading the same numbers and watching the same tape as the rest of us (and more).

 

[Forge]

1 hour ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

But it is a bad QB tendency on a short passing team like San Francisco. 

Or maybe San Francisco wouldn't be a short passing team with Justin Fields? Maybe they are a short passing team because of who their qb currently is?

 

1 hour ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

Just today someone posted a Fields video illustrating all of this in lurid detail:  the QB was more than half a second late on every throw (causing him to be hurried on every play), often to the wrong receiver, didn't use the breaks, threw into contact, and never caught a single receiver in full stride.

Every throw, huh? I'm not sure what video you're watching, but we all see what we see. Not a great game, but certainly not bad. Also, funny story? That guy who's video you linked thinks Justin fields should go first overall (not a stance I would support, but a hilarious turn of events given what you are using for source material)

 

 

[Dr A W Niloc]

6 hours ago, Forge said:

Or maybe San Francisco wouldn't be a short passing team with Justin Fields? Maybe they are a short passing team because of who their qb currently is?

The only question we need to address is the one Shanahan would have articulated after picking his jaw up off the floor on seeing these numbers:

How does a QB who is 97th in Average Depth of Target finish second in screen yardage and first in deep yardage?

The rest is noise.

[DABEARSLCF04]

Take your young QB at #3

Start Jimmy G till your young guy is ready, and if that's before the trade deadline trade Jimmy G.