Jets trade Sam Darnold to Panthers for 2021 6th, 2022 2nd and 4th

[goldfishwars]

 

[NYRaider]

10 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

I don't disagree, hence the value (free agent vs. draft picks), but the reality is, you're basically hoping Darnold is the answer/you can develop him, but the likelihood and historical precedent isn't great for rehabilitated/former "bust" quarterbacks.

I'm not saying Darnold will replicate their success but there have been a few guys that were considered busts while in terrible situations and then became better players on new teams with more talent around them. 

Steve Young was the #1 pick and was 3-16 with 11 TD and 21 INT in 2 seasons with Tampa Bay and then had a HOF career in San Francisco. 

Drew Brees was the #32 pick and was 30-28 in San Diego with 80 TD and 53 INT in San Diego and then had a HOF career in New Orleans. 

Ryan Tannehill was meh in Miami and has been one of the best QB in the league with the Titans. 

Obviously those are all outliers but it has happened in the past. In New York last season Darnold's 3 best WR's were Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman, and Braxton Berrios. And they had one of the worst running games in the league led by 37 year old Frank Gore. Not to mention he was playing for Adam Gase who's offenses were terrible in 6/8 years as a HC/OC and the only 2 years they weren't was when he had Payton Manning. 

In Carolina he's going into an offense with DJ Moore, Robby Anderson, Christian McCaffery, and a bright young offensive coach in Joe Brady. 

[NYRaider]

2 minutes ago, goldfishwars said:

 

I like Zach Wilson a lot but it's going to be hard for him to be successful playing there unless they retool their entire offense. 

[MWil23]

2 minutes ago, goldfishwars said:

 

To be honest, I'm not sure who looks at that Coastal Carolina film and says to themselves, "You know, what I love about this is that he's throwing back across the field across his body, on a rollout, and that's absolutely a great idea in the NFL. After all, it worked against a bunch of 3 star dudes that he lost to, in an end of half umbrella situation on his own side of the field, where they then ran out of time and weren't able to kick a field goal."

[Dr A W Niloc]

3 minutes ago, goldfishwars said:

 

To be fair, both QBs threw the same pass to a guy in a white shirt.  WTP?

[MWil23]

2 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

I'm not saying Darnold will replicate their success but there have been a few guys that were considered busts while in terrible situations and then became better players on new teams with more talent around them. 

Steve Young was the #1 pick and was 3-16 with 11 TD and 21 INT in 2 seasons with Tampa Bay and then had a HOF career in San Francisco. 

Steve Young would be a fair comparison, albeit the 3 year USFL time was and is unprecedented.

2 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Drew Brees was the #32 pick and was 30-28 in San Diego with 80 TD and 53 INT in San Diego and then had a HOF career in New Orleans. 

I think hindsight bias really is held against Brees here. The 30-28 record was largely based upon his first 2 years, whereas his last 2 years in San Diego he made a Pro Bowl, completed 65+% of his passes, threw 51 TD and 22 INT, and raised his quarterback rating by over 30 points from those first 2 years.

2 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Ryan Tannehill was meh in Miami and has been one of the best QB in the league with the Titans. 

Also a valid comparison/point.

2 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Obviously those are all outliers but it has happened in the past. In New York last season Darnold's 3 best WR's were Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman, and Braxton Berrios. And they had one of the worst running games in the league led by 37 year old Frank Gore. Not to mention he was playing for Adam Gase who's offenses were terrible in 6/8 years as a HC/OC and the only 2 years they weren't was when he had Payton Manning. 

In Carolina he's going into an offense with DJ Moore, Robby Anderson, Christian McCaffery, and a bright young offensive coach in Joe Brady. 

I 100% believe that he will be more setup for success in Carolina, and I like this trade for him. That said, the NY Jets, while a miserable franchise in developing QBs (and that's saying something coming from a Browns fan), aren't the sole reason. He's been hurt, had mono, has yet to play a full 16 game season, and was raw coming out and needed to refine his game in a few areas.

He's still just 23 and you've seen some flashes, but his decision making ability thus far has been poor. I blame a lot of this on the coaching staff for failing to put him in a position to be successful (both schematically and personnel wise), but some of those same USC concerns have been there.

[43M]

44 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

The Panthers obviously aren't happy with Bridgewater and realized that they weren't going to be able to get their guy at QB in the draft so they took a swing on Darnold. 

Nothing wrong with that at all.

I just a) dont see him as an OBVIOUS upgrade to Bridgewater and b) think 2nd round value for him is a major overpay.

[NYRaider]

14 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

He's still just 23 and you've seen some flashes, but his decision making ability thus far has been poor. I blame a lot of this on the coaching staff for failing to put him in a position to be successful (both schematically and personnel wise), but some of those same USC concerns have been there.

I think another thing you have to take into account is how/if his failures in New York affected his mentality. 

[BucsDraftGeek47]

40 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

To be honest, I'm not sure who looks at that Coastal Carolina film and says to themselves, "You know, what I love about this is that he's throwing back across the field across his body, on a rollout, and that's absolutely a great idea in the NFL. After all, it worked against a bunch of 3 star dudes that he lost to, in an end of half umbrella situation on his own side of the field, where they then ran out of time and weren't able to kick a field goal."

😂 geez

calm down bro

dont gotta kill em

[NYRaider]

1 minute ago, 43M said:

I just a) dont see him as an OBVIOUS upgrade to Bridgewater and b) think 2nd round value for him is a major overpay.

I've personally never really been that high on Bridgewater and have viewed him as more of a game manager. I think Darnold has more upside and will allow Brady to open up the playbook. Carolina is apparently looking to trade him now and will have to eat $10M in dead cap this year (but frees up $13M) and then they won't have to pay him following 2021. Darnold only has a $4M cap hit this year and an $18M cap hit with his 5th year option in 2022. So if things don't work out well this season they could always look to draft a quarterback next year and only have a 2 year commitment to Darnold. 

And I think draft capital is always overvalued. They gave up a future 2nd round pick for a potential starting quarterback. How often do teams find starting QB's in the 2nd round? The Dolphins gave up the 62nd pick in 2018 for Josh Rosen and he was terrible as a rookie. The Colts gave up a 3rd round pick and a future conditional 2nd round pick (which could become a 1st) for Carson Wentz who is 6 years older, has a way bigger cap hit, and is a guy that has dealt with injuries throughout his career. And the 49ers just gave up 3 1st round picks for the third best QB in the draft. 

It's also kind of hard to compare Darnold and Bridgewater. Bridgewater has had 1 year where he led a team to the playoffs but he had a top 5 defense and Adrian Peterson. They went 11-5 and Bridgewater only passed for 3,200 yards, 14 TD, 9 INT. And he looked good in spot duty with the Saints but he also had one of the best offenses in the NFL around him. 

Darnold has obviously had his struggles but he also had almost zero talent around him. When you look at the second half of the 2019 season when Darnold was healthy he threw for 1,947 yards (61% comp), 13 TD, 4 INT and the Jets were 6-2 down the stretch. 

 

[Soko]

1 hour ago, NYRaider said:

In 38 starts Darnold has 45 TD and 39 INT while in 49 starts Bridgewater has 53 TD and 36 INT playing with more talent around him. 

When you look at the second half of the 2019 season when Darnold was healthy he threw for 1,947 yards (61% comp), 13 TD, 4 INT and the Jets were 6-2 down the stretch. 

I’m not really big on using stats to quantify decision making, but Teddy’s got a higher career completion percentage, lower INT%, higher 1st down%, higher YPA, higher AYA, and higher on-target%. If you were going to use stats to suggest anything about decision making, Teddy’s got the edge.

[NYRaider]

7 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

I’m not really big on using stats to quantify decision making, but Teddy’s got a higher career completion percentage, lower INT%, higher 1st down%, higher YPA, higher AYA, and higher on-target%. If you were going to use stats to suggest anything about decision making, Teddy’s got the edge.

In the 3 seasons that Teddy has been a starter Teddy had 32 INT in 45 games and Darnold has 39 INT in 38 games. So I agree that Teddy is probably a better decision maker but he has also thrown a lot of interceptions and is a more conservative passer. 

[BigTrav]

The shade on Wilson in this thread...

[Soko]

Just now, NYRaider said:

In the 3 seasons that Teddy has been a starter Teddy had 32 INT in 45 games and Darnold has 39 INT in 38 games. So I agree that Teddy is probably a better decision maker but he has also thrown a lot of interceptions and is a more conservative passer. 

Definitely more conservative. Darnold’s more dynamic. Teddy’s probably not going to have that coached out of him at this point, which has to be a big reason why they’re looking to move on from him (among others). 

I’m totally fine riding/dying with a young QB, where there’s at least a chance of forging him into something nice. Especially if I get to retain my FRP, so even if he bottoms out, I’m still in a decent position next year. 

[BigTrav]

Out of 42 QBs ranked over the last 3 years who have thrown 500 passes, Darnold ranks 41st in passer rating and adjusted yards per attempt. Only Rosen is worse.

He is really young though (younger than Joe Burrow) and he did have the Gase treatment. Either way, give me Zach Wilson every day of the week.