Which of these trades are likely?

[Hunter2_1]

 

Please comment on if you can see any of these trades (or trades with the same team but slightly different components) happening.

These trades have comparisons in previous drafts. All trades have been checked on a draft trade value calc, and they all favour the team picking up the phone....

 

1. (Patriots to 7): New England trades 15th overall, 46th overall, 139th overall and the 2022 1st round pick for Detroit's 7th overall and 153rd. (Probably for Jones, NE may feel need to jump Denver)

2. (Vikings to 9 ) Minnesota trades 14th overall, 78th and a 2022 2nd round pick for Denver's 9th overall and 152nd. (Slater or Surtain on the board)

3. (Broncos to 4) Denver trades 9th overall, 40th overall and a 2022 3rd round pick for Atlanta's 4th overall and 182nd. (For Fields, Lance or Jones)

4. (Bears to 5) Chicago trades 20th overall, 83rd overall, 2022 1st round pick, 2023 first round pick, 2022 3rd round pick for Cinci's 5th overall and 111th (the thinking here is that it's a deep tackle class, and Cinci adds a ton of capital. Meanwhile Chicago gets into prime position for a QB)

5. (Patriots to 4) New England trades 15th overall, 46th overall, 2022 first round pick, 2023 first round pick for Atlanta's 4th overall, and a 4th round pick (Atlanta make ideal swap to get into middle of draft for pass rushers, NE get best possible position for QBotF. NE also now have four 4ths, and will package these up to move back into late 2nd or 3rd) 

 

Edited April 6, 2021 by Hunter2_1

[Scoundrel]

If that’s all it costs to move to 4 for Denver let’s go! I think the trade back with Minnesota is more likely. 

[MWil23]

4 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said:

3. (Broncos to 4) Denver trades 9th overall, 40th overall and a 2022 3rd round pick for Atlanta's 4th overall and 182nd. (For Fields, Lance or Jones)

Given the Browns/Bills Sammy Watkins trade, this seems to be a low offer. They swapped 9 for 4 and still sent an additional next year's 1 and 4 to move up those 5 spots.

JMHO

[MikeT14]

Agreed with the takes on Broncos trade. seems like not enough.

[Scoundrel]

2 hours ago, MWil23 said:

Given the Browns/Bills Sammy Watkins trade, this seems to be a low offer. They swapped 9 for 4 and still sent an additional next year's 1 and 4 to move up those 5 spots.

JMHO

 

Just now, MikeT14 said:

Agreed with the takes on Broncos trade. seems like not enough.

Shhhhh

[Soko]

7 hours ago, MWil23 said:

Given the Browns/Bills Sammy Watkins trade, this seems to be a low offer. They swapped 9 for 4 and still sent an additional next year's 1 and 4 to move up those 5 spots.

JMHO

Just a year prior, the Raiders went from 3 to 12 for only a second. Draft value changes based on who’s available. 

That said, Atlanta’s pick at 4 should be very valuable at this point. Get that pick, you have your pick of the QBs left or first dibs on the elite talents. 

[BigTrav]

I think Atlanta does move back. I don't think Belichick would ever give up that amount. I do quite like Denver moving down though....I kind of feel like Lance is going there. 

Don't know how likely, but I could see it.

[FalconFan13]

I think the Falcons are highly likely to move back and is being reported as such that we are talking to alot of people right now about doing so.    The #4 pick doesn't fit us well at all as our main things we need to fill out the roster are not good picks at 4.    QB is for sure not a need anymore as we are locked in on Ryan with the restructure for 3 more years.  We pushed 40 million in dead cap space back to 2023 so theirs no way were getting rid of Ryan owing him that anytime soon even more so with as terrible as our cap space is right now.    We have so little cap space it's even hard to fit our draft picks in right now considering how much the #4 pick costs.    So not only for us targeting a player that fits what we need is better at 9 in  Edge/LB, CB, Safety, RB, or OL   it actually helps us out on our cap space situation and allows us to gain more picks next year to help on our cap situation.    We don't need a QB, WR, or TE which are exactly whats available to you at 4 for good value and those are 3 positions we have good players at already lol.   Taking a Lance or Fields to have him sit for 3 years and only have 1 year left for him to show you something before you max him on a contract is just crazy to me.  That doesn't help our cap space at all nor help us build a SB team around a cheap QB which is the best time to do so. 

Now as for the trades the Denver one is light for us and it would atleast need to be  4 for  9, 40, and 2022 1st.  Which to me would be a very likely trade we make because it gives us a cheaper 1st round pick at 9 and 9 is the perfect spot for our main targets and needs in  Parsons, Surtain, Sewell, Slater, or even to trade down again if need be if another QB Falls or a top 5 guy falls like one of the WR's and we can target defensive players at Safety like Moehrig, edge at Kiwtty or Phillips or a RB like Najee.   Once again lowering the cap need for our 1st round pick and filling more holes we have alot of them and little cap space to help out. 

The Patriots trade is pretty nice overall it's a similar trade to the 49ers one where both teams get 3 1st  for the early pick  with the 49ers getting a 3rd next year and the Falcons getting a 2nd this year.   I think going from a 3rd next year to a 2nd this year is fair value on that 4th round pick we give back.  Although the Pats are moving up more spots to do so than the 49ers did but im still ok with it.   So overall this is a very fair trade based on what we have already seen the value is to do it a few weeks ago.   

Once again that 15 spot is a great spot for us not only for the extra picks to fill more needs the next few years but also bc it helps us save some cap space this year with the lower 1st round pick cost from 15 to 4. 

Pick 4 is   $31,103,027      $19,980,383    $5,655,096    So about 32 mil in contract total and about 5.6 mil in cap space this year
Pick 15 is  $14,848,294    $8,158,760       $2,699,690   Less than half that and if you add in the 2nd rounder we get extra it's only 1.3 million 

That means the total for 2 players for us is 4 mil in cap space compared to the 5.6 mil in cap space from the #4 pick.     As of right now the Falcons have this for cap space

2021   $180,356,057    $184,210,908     $3,854,851    we have right under 4 mil in cap space to add players to the team so not even enough for the #4 pick for this year so we have to make more cuts still to fit our rookies in that we are drafting and 2 for cheaper than 1 makes alot more sense to help with that  while drafting where our needs are better and giving us way more capital next year and the year after with those 2 1sts to add more players to turn this into Fontenot and Smiths team instead of what they have left over from last regime now.  Plus we can afford the extra picks in the next 2 years with better cap space than we can this year.

Hopefully i pleased my case well enough that this makes sense and is the right thing for us to do and why i think those 2 trades you listed would be the best choices of what you have listed and as to why i think we do those trades. 

[MWil23]

1 hour ago, Yin-Yang said:

Just a year prior, the Raiders went from 3 to 12 for only a second. Draft value changes based on who’s available. 

That said, Atlanta’s pick at 4 should be very valuable at this point. Get that pick, you have your pick of the QBs left or first dibs on the elite talents. 

Don’t encourage @Scoundrel with posts like this 😉 

[grizmo78]

As a Broncos fan, 9, 40, and 2022 1st would be way too much imo. I think 9, 40, 2022 3rd is about as much as I would want to pay, and only if Fields is the one left. If any of the other teams (NE, CHI) aren't willing to pay that high of a price either, then the next spot a QB could realistically go is at pick 7. We could then trade up two spots for much much cheaper if our guy is still there. 

[jrry32]

13 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said:

 

Please comment on if you can see any of these trades (or trades with the same team but slightly different components) happening.

These trades have comparisons in previous drafts. All trades have been checked on a draft trade value calc, and they all favour the team picking up the phone....

 

1. (Patriots to 7): New England trades 15th overall, 46th overall, 139th overall and the 2022 1st round pick for Detroit's 7th overall and 153rd. (Probably for Jones, NE may feel need to jump Denver)

 

That seems like a lot, frankly.

[NoDakViking]

If the Vikings trade up for a corner I'll be angry

[Heinz D.]

None of the above.

Broncos trade with Lions for #7.

Not going to figure out the compensation, as it isn't my thread. 😉

[BowlesDawgDX]

While I agree with you for the most part @FalconFan13, if we do choose a QB, he would sit for a year at most. Yes, we pushed back money, however Matt's contract would allow us to cut him post June for a savings of over 23 million, even with the dead money. As I've said in other threads, I don't think we go QB, but I understand if we do

[FalconFan13]

2 hours ago, BowlesDawgDX said:

While I agree with you for the most part @FalconFan13, if we do choose a QB, he would sit for a year at most. Yes, we pushed back money, however Matt's contract would allow us to cut him post June for a savings of over 23 million, even with the dead money. As I've said in other threads, I don't think we go QB, but I understand if we do

Thats adds about 2 million extra in cap space compared to right now for this year. But then you are eating 40 million in dead cap space next year which is horrendous for a player thats not even on your team anymore.   To me at the soonest you can move on from Ryan is 2023 without it really hurting you.  I honestly feel if we didn't want to keep Ryan for the newt few years we wouldn't have restructured him but instead extended Grady or Restructured Julio. 

Edited April 7, 2021 by FalconFan13