Mahomes broke the QB position in the NFL

[stl4life07]

I agree that this started way before Mahomes. It happened when we saw QBs their rookie seasons hit the ground running. Big Ben, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton just to name a few. Usually when we think of rookie QBs we think of them sitting for at least a year if not more. We also think about rookie QBs struggling early on like Peyton who was a turnover machine his rookie season and the Colts went nowhere. Brees early on struggled so badly the Chargers thought he wasnt ever going to work out so they traded to get Phillip Rivers. Long gone QBs that teams have patience with from the jump. We even heard rumblings that the Dolphins could move on from Tua to trade for Watson or draft a QB. Some still think if the right QB slide to them at 6th overall they still could draft one. We how much the talk was that the Dolphins was tanking for Tua that year and eventually got him. So it make no sense for them to move on from him unless they are impatient knowing they have the team and he just isnt going to get the job done to get them over the hump which is getting to the Superbowl sooner rather than later.

I think what we are seeing from the current QBs that are on other teams is the teams just going in different directions. McVay realized Goff wasnt going to get the Rams back to the Superbowl let alone win one. The Eagles had enough of Wentz and even the players was strongly in support of Hurts. In both Goff and Wentz situations they kinda soured on their situations as well so it was best both moved on. Trubisky was a mistake from the time the Bears drafted him so it was only a matter of time. Nobody saw the Bears giving him an extension. To me he is the Jake Locker and Blake Bortles of the draft and we all saw it coming a mile away. Darnold is a product of the poorly ran Jets organization. He wasnt given a fair shot. I think he will thrive in Carolina just like we are seeing Tannehill thrive in Tennessee. What organizations are learning is that you draft a rookie QB and you give him everything he needs to succeed. Wentz got that in Philly its just he got hurt the year they won the Superbowl. Goff got that in LA and they went to the Superbowl. Mahomes got that and they won a Superbowl. Allen is getting that and so is Murray so we will see how that will turn out. I even think the Cowboys gave Dak that and thats why we saw him succeed right away because he had great OL and great weapons. If they can fix their defense and thats a big IF I think Dak still has the cast around him to succeed. 

[Kiwibrown]

What are some examples of teams moving on to early though? 

[mission27]

5 hours ago, wackywabbit said:

This is wildly overstated. It's actually only happened 2 times with QBs on a rookie deal signed after the rookie wage scale was introduced in 2011.

Eh I feel like that stat is a little misleading.  The last 8 years Brady has won 4 and Peyton 1.  Of the 3 times it wasn't literally the two greatest QBs in history it was:

- Twice players on rookie deals playing at an MVP level (Mahomes and Wilson)

- Once a team that had an MVP caliber QB on a rookie deal, which allowed them to build a stacked roster, and then got lucky with a fluke Nick Foles playoff run (Eagles with Wentz)

We haven't seen a good but not GOAT veteran QB win a Super Bowl since 2013-14.  And in that time you've also seen Wilson, Cam, and Goff making it to the Super Bowl on rookie deals in MVP caliber seasons.  In all three cases the teams sharply regressed once they started paying them MVP type salaries. 

I would agree that its kind of meaningless when Tom Brady wins the Super Bowl 50% of the time.  Like, we aren't dealing with the biggest sample size here.  But the non-GOAT veteran QBs have mostly come up empty the past handful of years.

[mission27]

3 hours ago, Kiwibrown said:

What are some examples of teams moving on to early though? 

Idk, Jay Cutler?  Remember how floored everyone was that the Broncos would trade a guy like Cutler who was young and acceptable starting caliber? Cutler was meh in Chicago but he was a lot better than Kyle Orton and it got McDaniels fired.

I don't think the Cutler situation is that much different from guys like Goff, Wentz, and Trubisky.  Young, middle of the pack, inconsistent QBs who have shown flashes.  In the past teams would ride those guys for years and years because they preferred to have a young QB who was 15-20th best in the league and hope that guy would improve rather than going back into QB purgatory.  It worked with guys like Stafford and Eli.  These days the thinking is a full 180.  If you don't have a clear top-5 or top-10 guy all options are on the table.

Tannehill is another recent example.  Although Miami gave him a lot of years and I don't know if he was ever going to make the leap there.  And of course, Drew Brees.

For the really young guys its hard to say, a lot of guys don't get a real chance let alone a second chance, and a QBs career can 100% be sabotaged if they don't land in a good, stable situation.  Just look at Matt Barkley.

Edited April 8, 2021 by mission27

[Trojan]

On 4/6/2021 at 4:44 PM, bigbadbuff said:

People said Josh Allen sucked and the Bills should’ve moved on. 

I’ll leave it at that

EJ Manuel was less than average, and the Bills did move on after roughly a year though.

[bigbadbuff]

4 minutes ago, Trojan said:

EJ Manuel was less than average, and the Bills did move on after roughly a year though.

Different regime 

[Trojan]

1 minute ago, bigbadbuff said:

Different regime 

Brandon Beane was part of the Panthers that gave up on 48th pick Jimmy Clausen for #1 pick Cam Newton. The giving up on a highly drafted QB for another after a year or a few isn't a post-Mahomes thing.

[mission27]

8 hours ago, DutchFalcon said:

Literally the only reason Ryan and Flacco weren't "superstars" was small(er) market teams, the fact everyone was on Payton and Brady's nuts and maybe a feeling to give them some slack. Both Ryan and Flacco had some pretty impressive rookie campaigns. Ryan taking a  decent team but one  that seemed to be condemned to years of mediocrity following the Ron Mexico and Bobby Petrino debacle to a playoff appearance (and with a bit of luck that might have actually been a deep playoff run) while Flaccid did the same, as in reaching the playoffs, on a stacked Ravens team so he also deserves some credit I guess.

Flacco did not have a very impressive rookie year.  He was 24th in QBR (a couple spots below Kyle Orton).  The Ravens didn't make the playoffs because of Flacco.  They made the playoffs because they had arguably the best defense in the league and ran the ball 600 times. 

Ryan was much better.  But he took a step back in year 2.  

Neither guy was a superstar from day 1 or really even close to it.

[Roninho]

On 4/7/2021 at 12:43 AM, Blackstar12 said:

It’s been like this before Mahomes so I don’t get why he’s getting blamed here.

This. I guess there might be an impact from the change in rookie contracts (guys like Darnold & Mayfield would have had 100 mio rookie contracts) and passing becoming easier with the rule changes.but dont see much that Mahomes changed. 

[DutchFalcon]

6 hours ago, mission27 said:

Flacco did not have a very impressive rookie year.  He was 24th in QBR (a couple spots below Kyle Orton).  The Ravens didn't make the playoffs because of Flacco.  They made the playoffs because they had arguably the best defense in the league and ran the ball 600 times. 

Ryan was much better.  But he took a step back in year 2.  

Neither guy was a superstar from day 1 or really even close to it.

Ryan got hurt year 2. It's kinda crazy how durable he's been behind an Oline that has been bottom of the league for most of his career.

[Hunter2_1]

7 minutes ago, DutchFalcon said:

Ryan got hurt year 2. It's kinda crazy how durable he's been behind an Oline that has been bottom of the league for most of his career.

een van de slimste QBs

[DutchFalcon]

7 minutes ago, Hunter2_1 said:

een van de slimste QBs

Heel goed!

[Ray Reed]

20 hours ago, mission27 said:

Flacco did not have a very impressive rookie year.  He was 24th in QBR (a couple spots below Kyle Orton).  The Ravens didn't make the playoffs because of Flacco.  They made the playoffs because they had arguably the best defense in the league and ran the ball 600 times. 

Ryan was much better.  But he took a step back in year 2.  

Neither guy was a superstar from day 1 or really even close to it.

To be fair the Ravens from 01-07 had one of the best defenses in the league and ran the ball a crap-ton like almost every year but missed the playoffs like every other year...as soon as Flacco arrived it was 5 straight playoff trips with at least 1 win in the post season every year capped by a SB in 2012. Even if he wasn’t lighting up the stat sheet there’s something to be said about the stability he brought to the org from game 1

[wackywabbit]

23 hours ago, mission27 said:

Eh I feel like that stat is a little misleading.  The last 8 years Brady has won 4 and Peyton 1.  Of the 3 times it wasn't literally the two greatest QBs in history it was:

- Twice players on rookie deals playing at an MVP level (Mahomes and Wilson)

- Once a team that had an MVP caliber QB on a rookie deal, which allowed them to build a stacked roster, and then got lucky with a fluke Nick Foles playoff run (Eagles with Wentz)

We haven't seen a good but not GOAT veteran QB win a Super Bowl since 2013-14.  And in that time you've also seen Wilson, Cam, and Goff making it to the Super Bowl on rookie deals in MVP caliber seasons.  In all three cases the teams sharply regressed once they started paying them MVP type salaries. 

I would agree that its kind of meaningless when Tom Brady wins the Super Bowl 50% of the time.  Like, we aren't dealing with the biggest sample size here.  But the non-GOAT veteran QBs have mostly come up empty the past handful of years.

Yes, great QBs or great stretches of QB play are incredibly important in winning a SB. The rookie contract thing is not though, and that conversation always goes the same way:

- History has shown that it's critical that you win a SB before your QB gets off his rookie deal
- Well there are only 2 data points for that happening for post-rookie wage scale QBs
- Saying it only happened twice is misleading because you have to throw out the X super bowls Tom Brady won and the other Y don't count because reasons, so actually those 2 data points are very significant

[Kiwibrown]

A better understanding of economics probably helps. The sunk cost fallacy, just because you have drafted someone at no.1 overall doesnt mean that you have to keep them. 

Also current rookie contracts are less damming to get out of too. Getting put the Darnold contract was a mutual operation after living together rather than a nast divorce. 

When the no.1 overall pick is the highest paid player in the league it doesnt work for anyone, the mediocre player crippling the team, or the team that is in a rebuild. 

If you dont have the guy, the dumbest thing you can do is pretend to have the guy and push forward. There is only one recent example of a guy thriving in a new environment that is Ryan Tannehill. The next in line to try are goff and wentz, I dont have much confidence in either,but we will see. Goff especially, going to a worse coach, organization and team. Wentz is getting an improvement in team, coach and organization.

Moving on from Culter allowed the Broncos to win a superbowl in the near future.