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2021 ROOKIE QB's---- Who hits, who's OK, who busts?


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Looking back over the last 30ish years of NFL drafts with QB's drafted in the first round.  The table below has the QB's drafted in the first round.  
year, QB selected, round, pick.   I rated the players on a "very subjective" 1, 2, 3 scale, though left some blank as only 1 year sample is not enough.   Feel free to disagree and create your own rating of the QB's...copy the table and go to town!!!!

1= franchise QB, led to playoffs, showing flashes of high potential
2= OK QB for their team, not a bust, but not a upper tier type QB
3 = bust

Track record seems to point that 1-2 of the top 5 QB in the 2021 draft will be busts.  Certainly landing spot, supporting cast, coaching, other factors will play into this over the course of their NFL careers.  

Year No. Round Pick Player Name Team College rating number of 1's number of 2's number of 3's
2020 1 1 1 1 Joe Burrow Bengals Louisiana State 1 23 20 35
2020 2 1 5 5 Tua Tagovailoa Dolphins Alabama        
2020 3 1 6 6 Justin Herbert Chargers Oregon 1      
2020 4 1 26 26 Jordan Love Packers Utah State        
2019 1 1 1 1 Kyler Murray Cardinals Oklahoma 1      
2019 2 1 6 6 Daniel Jones Giants Duke 2      
2019 3 1 15 15 Dwayne Haskins Redskins Ohio State 3      
2018 1 1 1 1 Baker Mayfield Browns Oklahoma 2      
2018 2 1 3 3 Sam Darnold Jets USC 3      
2018 3 1 7 7 Josh Allen Bills Wyoming 1      
2018 4 1 10 10 Josh Rosen Cardinals UCLA 3      
2018 5 1 32 32 Lamar Jackson Ravens Louisville 1      
2017 1 1 2 2 Mitchell Trubisky Bears North Carolina 3      
2017 2 1 10 10 Patrick Mahomes Chiefs Texas Tech 1      
2017 3 1 12 12 Deshaun Watson Texans Clemson 1      
2016 1 1 1 1 Jared Goff Rams California 2      
2016 2 1 2 2 Carson Wentz Eagles North Dakota State 2      
2016 3 1 26 26 Paxton Lynch Broncos Memphis 3      
2015 1 1 1 1 Jameis Winston Buccaneers Florida State 2      
2015 2 1 2 2 Marcus Mariota Titans Oregon 3      
2014 1 1 3 3 Blake Bortles Jaguars Central Florida 3      
2014 2 1 22 22 Johnny Manziel Browns Texas A&M 3      
2014 3 1 32 32 Teddy Bridgewater Vikings Louisville 3      
2013 1 1 16 16 EJ Manuel Bills Florida State 3      
2012 1 1 1 1 Andrew Luck Colts Stanford 1      
2012 2 1 2 2 Robert Griffin Redskins Baylor 2      
2012 3 1 8 8 Ryan Tannehill Dolphins Texas A&M 2      
2012 4 1 22 22 Brandon Weeden Browns Oklahoma State 3      
2011 1 1 1 1 Cam Newton Panthers Auburn 1      
2011 2 1 8 8 Jake Locker Titans Washington 3      
2011 3 1 10 10 Blaine Gabbert Jaguars Missouri 3      
2011 4 1 12 12 Christian Ponder Vikings Florida State 3      
2010 1 1 1 1 Sam Bradford Rams Oklahoma 2      
2010 2 1 25 25 Tim Tebow Broncos Florida 2      
2009 1 1 1 1 Matthew Stafford Lions Georgia 1      
2009 2 1 5 5 Mark Sanchez Jets USC 2      
2009 3 1 17 17 Josh Freeman Buccaneers Kansas State 3      
2008 1 1 3 3 Matt Ryan Falcons Boston College 1      
2008 2 1 18 18 Joe Flacco Ravens Delaware 1      
2007 1 1 1 1 JaMarcus Russell Raiders Louisiana State 3      
2007 2 1 22 22 Brady Quinn Browns Notre Dame 3      
2006 1 1 3 3 Vince Young Titans Texas 2      
2006 2 1 10 10 Matt Leinart Cardinals USC 3      
2006 3 1 11 11 Jay Cutler Broncos Vanderbilt 2      
2005 1 1 1 1 Alex Smith 49ers Utah 2      
2005 2 1 24 24 Aaron Rodgers Packers California 1      
2005 3 1 25 25 Jason Campbell Redskins Auburn 2      
2004 1 1 1 1 Eli Manning Chargers Mississippi 1      
2004 2 1 4 4 Philip Rivers Giants North Carolina State 1      
2004 3 1 11 11 Ben Roethlisberger Steelers Miami (OH) 1      
2004 4 1 22 22 J.P. Losman Bills Tulane 3      
2003 1 1 1 1 Carson Palmer Bengals USC 1      
2003 2 1 7 7 Byron Leftwich Jaguars Marshall 2      
2003 3 1 19 19 Kyle Boller Ravens California 3      
2003 4 1 22 22 Rex Grossman Bears Florida 2      
2002 1 1 1 1 David Carr Texans Fresno State 3      
2002 2 1 3 3 Joey Harrington Lions Oregon 3      
2002 3 1 32 32 Patrick Ramsey Redskins Tulane 3      
2001 1 1 1 1 Michael Vick Falcons Virginia Tech 1      
2000 1 1 18 18 Chad Pennington Jets Marshall 2      
1999 1 1 1 1 Tim Couch Browns Kentucky 3      
1999 2 1 2 2 Donovan McNabb Eagles Syracuse 1      
1999 3 1 3 3 Akili Smith Bengals Oregon 3      
1999 4 1 11 11 Daunte Culpepper Vikings Central Florida 2      
1999 5 1 12 12 Cade McNown Bears UCLA 3      
1998 1 1 1 1 Peyton Manning Colts Tennessee 1      
1998 2 1 2 2 Ryan Leaf Chargers Washington State 3      
1997 1 1 26 26 Jim Druckenmiller 49ers Virginia Tech 3      
1995 1 1 3 3 Steve McNair Oilers Alcorn State 1      
1995 2 1 5 5 Kerry Collins Panthers Penn State 1      
1994 1 1 3 3 Heath Shuler Redskins Tennessee 3      
1994 2 1 6 6 Trent Dilfer Buccaneers Fresno State 2      
1993 1 1 1 1 Drew Bledsoe Patriots Washington State 1      
1993 2 1 2 2 Rick Mirer Seahawks Notre Dame 3      
1992 1 1 6 6 David Klingler Bengals Houston 3      
1992 2 1 25 25 Tommy Maddox Broncos UCLA 3      
1991 1 1 16 16 Dan McGwire Seahawks San Diego State 3      
1991 2 1 24 24 Todd Marinovich Raiders USC 3      
1990 1 1 1 1 Jeff George Colts Illinois 2      
1990 2 1 7 7 Andre Ware Lions Houston 3      
1992 sup 1 1   0 Dave Brown Giants Duke        
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Tough to say without knowing who they go to...

Lawrence - 1

Wilson - 2 (bad situation)

Lance - won't know for a while

Jones - 1 or 2 (probably in a good situation...SF or NE you'd have to think right now)

Fields - worried here, I think he could be in a bad situation. 1 if SF, 2 if not

Trask, Mond - 3. Not seeing it. 

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Why is Kyler a 1 and Baker a 2? 🤔

And it's hard to say for the 2021 rookies. It largely depends on where they end up. Lawrence I'm sure we'll be a 1.

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Couple of these ratings are a little questionable - how is Tebow not a 3? because of a playoff game?

Kerry Collins a 1, but Alex Smith a 2?

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I feel like everyone is piling on to the unimportant parts of this (but there's no way Kerry Collins is a 1 if Daunte Culpepper is a 2)

I think this exercise has to be done post-draft

If we have to do it now, I'll say that Lawrence to the Jags is likely a 1, Zach Wilson to the Jets is a 1/2 depending on if he can overcome his cast, and the rest are going to be dependent on landing spots

Also - if you're willing to give Love/Tua "incomplete" grades, how are we supposed to give these guys with even LESS experience grades!?!

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If we are looking back on this next year, it entirely depends on where they get drafted.

If we are looking at this a few years down the line, 3-4, it all still entirely depends on where they got drafted, the staff that developed them, and the patience the front office had in letting them get up to speed. I think all 5 of the top guys have enough talent to succeed in the NFL. The rest depends on their work ethic, ability to learn, and their team's ability to teach.

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Lawrence - disappointment in terms of the ridiculous expectations placed on him. Probably closer to a bust than a boom a la Jared Goff return on investment. I think Lawrence will have trouble in terms of being a competitor, leader, staying healthy, and performing as a passer in late playoff appearances.

Wilson - Not a fan, don't know what it is but I just think despite some of the arm talent he will bust. Durability concerns, overmatched by greater competition in terms of coaching and athletes, and just probably bad luck. I don't think he sucks or is worse than Lawrence but I do think he has a tough career for whatever reason.

Fields - The one sure-fire great QB I see in the class if there is one. Best chance to be worth the high draft investment. Clutch, tough, athletic, competitive, determined, accurate, leader.

Jones - Not sure if there is as high of a floor as everyone projects but I do think there is good chance he actually lasts in the NFL for a while due to his background at Alabama and his intelligence for football. Seems like a guy who just makes slow, gradual progress throughout his career in the league. Nothing special and probably not a great hit in the first but you could do much worse.

Mond - There is some sort combination of athleticism and charisma that will be molded or Monded into something decent as a starter. Not a fan of some of the traits I see as a distributor and decision maker in the pocket but I think Mond will has a good trajectory. Growth, health, and natural talent are on his side.

Lance - Biggest wildcard. A lot of talent and good head on his shoulder. Needs the right environment. I'll say he has a higher likelihood of busting than hitting.

Ehlinger - Good chance of being a backup and journeyman if not finding himself eventually in a situation to compete as a starter. Don't think he busts.

Trask - Could lose his chances to start and flourish if he doesn't handle pressure well. Arm talent and size is there to be utilized and crafted into a starter however. I think he has a higher ceiling of hitting than many of the top prospects. I would say he is more likely to bust than not if taken high in the draft but there is more as a passer to feel confident projecting with Trask in the pocket than most other prospects this year. I'd take the gamble on Trask if I am most teams with the belief that relative to draft position compared to the other guys on this list that he will actually hit and thus be worth the investment.

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48 minutes ago, DoleINGout said:

Lawrence - disappointment in terms of the ridiculous expectations placed on him. Probably closer to a bust than a boom a la Jared Goff return on investment. I think Lawrence will have trouble in terms of being a competitor, leader, staying healthy, and performing as a passer in late playoff appearances.

Wilson - Not a fan, don't know what it is but I just think despite some of the arm talent he will bust. Durability concerns, overmatched by greater competition in terms of coaching and athletes, and just probably bad luck. I don't think he sucks or is worse than Lawrence but I do think he has a tough career for whatever reason.

Fields - The one sure-fire great QB I see in the class if there is one. Best chance to be worth the high draft investment. Clutch, tough, athletic, competitive, determined, accurate, leader.

Jones - Not sure if there is as high of a floor as everyone projects but I do think there is good chance he actually lasts in the NFL for a while due to his background at Alabama and his intelligence for football. Seems like a guy who just makes slow, gradual progress throughout his career in the league. Nothing special and probably not a great hit in the first but you could do much worse.

Mond - There is some sort combination of athleticism and charisma that will be molded or Monded into something decent as a starter. Not a fan of some of the traits I see as a distributor and decision maker in the pocket but I think Mond will has a good trajectory. Growth, health, and natural talent are on his side.

Lance - Biggest wildcard. A lot of talent and good head on his shoulder. Needs the right environment. I'll say he has a higher likelihood of busting than hitting.

Ehlinger - Good chance of being a backup and journeyman if not finding himself eventually in a situation to compete as a starter. Don't think he busts.

Trask - Could lose his chances to start and flourish if he doesn't handle pressure well. Arm talent and size is there to be utilized and crafted into a starter however. I think he has a higher ceiling of hitting than many of the top prospects. I would say he is more likely to bust than not if taken high in the draft but there is more as a passer to feel confident projecting with Trask in the pocket than most other prospects this year. I'd take the gamble on Trask if I am most teams with the belief that relative to draft position compared to the other guys on this list that he will actually hit and thus be worth the investment.

No to Lawrence but yes to Fields? Oof. 

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Is this just projections because so far its like Lawrence and Wilson are crap and Fields the GOAT. 

I dont think situation determines the quality of Quarterback you are but it does have an impact on your overall success as a player. 

A good QB can stand out in a bad situation. A mediocre QB can stand out in a good situation(but in reverse)

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Putting SuperBowl winning QB Trent Dilfer as a 2 is an odd choice.

Can't imagine him being on the same lowly rank as underachiever, Baker Mayfield, who has only lost in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. He's clearly as good as Kyler Murray who has never lost a playoff game EVER. 

 

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6 hours ago, MikeT14 said:

Couple of these ratings are a little questionable - how is Tebow not a 3? because of a playoff game?

Kerry Collins a 1, but Alex Smith a 2?

Because of almost an entire season.  The Broncos went 1-4 before they put Tebow in and he became the starter and led them to the playoffs. 

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2 minutes ago, Uncle Buck said:

Because of almost an entire season.  The Broncos went 1-4 before they put Tebow in and he became the starter and led them to the playoffs. 

So Bortles should be a 2. He got to the AFCCG in 17.

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