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Who will be the surprise top 10 pick?


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The biggest surprise that I could see happening is the Cincinnati Bengals moving down taking Milton Williams from Louisiana Tech (so Denver comes up for 1/2/3/4/5 QB in a row to keep with surprise in the top 10). Personally I think Jamarr Chase makes all the sense in the world, but the argument that the Bengals have weapons and should address the line also makes sense. Then once there they may talk themselves into the tackle class being deep, whereas the DL class has issues. They were present for Milton Williams freaky proday and might just think he could develop into what they need. I think it would be a mistake, but we are talking about surprises that maybe could see and I think that's one that might be a thing. His 39" vert and supposed 4.62 40, 6.87 3 cone are insanity to think about. If they believe what they saw, and it was their DL coach putting him through drills, there is a sneaky path to him being pick after trade down (for the thread Denver deal including #9). Realistically he would be more likely their pick at the top of the second or third round if they love him, but if he's a guy they love I could see a surprise. It's also the front office and decision makers that took John Ross off his work out in the top ten.

Edited by Trojan
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3 hours ago, Trojan said:

The biggest surprise that I could see happening is the Cincinnati Bengals moving down taking Milton Williams from Louisiana Tech (so Denver comes up for 1/2/3/4/5 QB in a row to keep with surprise in the top 10). Personally I think Jamarr Chase makes all the sense in the world, but the argument that the Bengals have weapons and should address the line also makes sense. Then once there they may talk themselves into the tackle class being deep, whereas the DL class has issues. They were present for Milton Williams freaky proday and might just think he could develop into what they need. I think it would be a mistake, but we are talking about surprises that maybe could see and I think that's one that might be a thing. His 39" vert and supposed 4.62 40, 6.87 3 cone are insanity to think about. If they believe what they saw, and it was their DL coach putting him through drills, there is a sneaky path to him being pick after trade down (for the thread Denver deal including #9). Realistically he would be more likely their pick at the top of the second or third round if they love him, but if he's a guy they love I could see a surprise. It's also the front office and decision makers that took John Ross off his work out in the top ten.

I think the 2nd day pick is more likely. They tend to draft players from Power 5 conferences in the first (William Jackson being the one exception in the last 20+ years). I agree he seems like the type of player they would target. 

Edited by BowlesDawgDX
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18 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

I honestly don't think there will be much surprise in the top ten in terms of who goes there, it's the QBs and then a pretty obvious top tier of players to follow. 

Agreed. The only possible exception that I could see a relatively early run on Oline since its a good group this year and always a safe position to 'settle' on if they don't want to spend on a pass catcher early.

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21 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

I honestly don't think there will be much surprise in the top ten in terms of who goes there, it's the QBs and then a pretty obvious top tier of players to follow. 

Except there usually is a surprise. Most years draft twitter gets a pretty heavy consensus and then on draft day when the surprise happens, its all "ZOMG JDFHUR SKHFKHS !!!!!"  Plus, if we expected it, it wouldn't be a surprise.

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10 minutes ago, THE DUKE said:

Except there usually is a surprise. Most years draft twitter gets a pretty heavy consensus and then on draft day when the surprise happens, its all "ZOMG JDFHUR SKHFKHS !!!!!"  Plus, if we expected it, it wouldn't be a surprise.

I just feel like this year, nothing lines up to be surprising. Teams have very specific needs and the needs match the boards almost perfectly. The only team I could see being a wild card is the Broncos and Panthers. Carolina could go in a few directions and Denver, assuming they don’t trade back, could end up being a surprise. Maybe Barmore or a linebacker not named Parsons to those two squads? Darrisaw? Cosmi? Again, I think that’d be nuts, but everyone else seems to have a supremely obvious no-brainer pick. 

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5 minutes ago, LinebackerGod said:

I just feel like this year, nothing lines up to be surprising. Teams have very specific needs and the needs match the boards almost perfectly. The only team I could see being a wild card is the Broncos and Panthers. Carolina could go in a few directions and Denver, assuming they don’t trade back, could end up being a surprise. Maybe Barmore or a linebacker not named Parsons to those two squads? Darrisaw? Cosmi? Again, I think that’d be nuts, but everyone else seems to have a supremely obvious no-brainer pick. 

I hear you, but every year teams do something the fans think surprising.  What we see as needs and what the teams sees typically don't align perfectly.  Same thing with value.

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On 4/11/2021 at 8:32 PM, massraider said:

Me either, but medicals means he could be a pick for the guy who falls.

Teams are much more risk adverse on medicals than fans are, that's for sure.  We don't know how bad the medical evaluation might be.  Has wrist surgery, two ankle surgeries, and three known concussions, I think is what I read.  I don't really know how medical evaluations work with concussions, can they actually test and see if a player is more prone to concussions?  

Agreed. I'm a Canes fan who expects Phillip to be drafted later than expected, for the reasons you mentioned

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I could see Atlanta trading back with Dallas and taking Najee.  Arthur Smith is probably salivating over what he could do with him in that offense.   He’s being underrated IMO, I’m not personally a fan of going rb that early but he compares favorably with the elite prospects that have gone top 10 imo 

Edited by BigC421/
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On 4/12/2021 at 11:42 AM, THE DUKE said:

I wouldn't be shocked to see Barmore go top 10.  I also wouldn't be shocked to see him go at 50.

Really the only team I could see taking him in the top 10 is Detroit.  Think he's more a 15-22 selection.

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Not going to be top 10 picks but to me are first round prospects:

Aaron Banks, Notre Dame

Rashad Weaver, Pitt

Ihmir Smith-Marsette, Iowa

Baron Browning, Ohio State

Tyson Campbell, Georgia

 

It's hard to say there will be a surprise top 10 pick this year with it basically being a foregone conclusion that literally half of those picks are locked into five QB's that everyone is aware of. The remaining five picks of the top 10 wouldn't/won't be surprises then.

I guess for the sake of answering the original question my surprise top 10 pick for 2021 would be Kadarius Toney.

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On 4/12/2021 at 11:45 AM, Trojan said:

The biggest surprise that I could see happening is the Cincinnati Bengals moving down taking Milton Williams from Louisiana Tech (so Denver comes up for 1/2/3/4/5 QB in a row to keep with surprise in the top 10). Personally I think Jamarr Chase makes all the sense in the world, but the argument that the Bengals have weapons and should address the line also makes sense. Then once there they may talk themselves into the tackle class being deep, whereas the DL class has issues. They were present for Milton Williams freaky proday and might just think he could develop into what they need. I think it would be a mistake, but we are talking about surprises that maybe could see and I think that's one that might be a thing. His 39" vert and supposed 4.62 40, 6.87 3 cone are insanity to think about. If they believe what they saw, and it was their DL coach putting him through drills, there is a sneaky path to him being pick after trade down (for the thread Denver deal including #9). Realistically he would be more likely their pick at the top of the second or third round if they love him, but if he's a guy they love I could see a surprise. It's also the front office and decision makers that took John Ross off his work out in the top ten.

Maybe on Day 2.  But the Bengals aren't trading out of 5.  I feel fairly confident in that one.  The Bengals haven't traded down on draft day since 2012 when they moved from 21 to 27.  Prior to that, the Bengals last draft day trade down was in 2004.  I believe those are the only two times Mike Brown has traded down ond raft day.

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