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Combine tests on predicting future success


squire12

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Came across the following while looking for some other more work related info.....thought it might be interesting to discuss

Performance of Future Elite Players at the National Football League Scouting Combine (2018)

Abstract below.   Some good more in depth reading for those that want to do some fun digging on things.  Table 3 breaks down positions and all-pro, pro bowl, no post season accolades 

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The purpose of this study is to examine players' physical and performance measures taken at the National Football League (NFL) Scouting Combine and compare these with their future performance in the NFL. From 2002 to 2016, 3 types of player data (N = 5,506) were collected from secondary data sources. Results of players earned on various NFL Scouting Combine drills and measurements (e.g., height, body mass, 40-yard dash time, vertical jump, bench press repetitions, shuttle run time, and 3-cone drill time), the position players play on the field (e.g., quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end, offensive line, defensive line, linebacker, and defensive back), and if players received elite performance awards (e.g., Pro Bowl and All-Pro selections) in the future were collected. After analyzing the data, the results indicate that (a) NFL quarterbacks that received All-Pro and Pro Bowl awards tend to be taller, weigh more, run faster in the 40-yard dash, jump higher, complete more bench press reps, and are slower for the shuttle run and 3-cone drill; (b) All-Pro and Pro Bowl NFL running backs tend to weigh more, run the 40-yard dash faster, do not jump as high, complete more bench press reps, and complete the shuttle run and 3-cone drills slower; (c) NFL wide receivers who were selected for the Pro Bowl or as All-Pros tend to be taller, weigh more, run the 40-yard dash faster, have a higher vertical jump, and run the 3-cone drill faster; (d) NFL tight ends that received All-Pro and Pro Bowl awards tend to be taller, weigh more, run the 40-yard dash faster, jump higher, complete more bench press reps, run the shuttle run slower, and complete the 3-cone drill faster; (e) All-Pro and Pro Bowl NFL offensive linemen tend to run the 40-yard dash faster, jump higher, are able to complete more bench press reps, and run both the shuttle run and 3-cone drill faster; (f) NFL defensive linemen who were selected as All-Pro and Pro Bowl players tend to be taller, weigh more, run the 40-yard dash faster, jump higher, complete more bench press reps, and run the 3-cone drill faster; (g) NFL linebackers who were named to the All-Pro and Pro Bowl teams tend to be taller, weigh more, run the 40-yard dash faster, jump higher, can complete more bench press reps, and run both the shuttle run and 3-cone drill faster; and (h) NFL wide receivers that were selected for the Pro Bowl or as an All-Pro tend to weigh more, run the 40-yard dash faster, jump higher, can complete fewer bench press reps, and run the shuttle run slower. Certified strength and conditioning specialists for college and professional teams will be able to use these results to help train and set performance goals for American football athletes with whom they work and train.

 

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Predictive Value of National Football League Scouting Combine on Future Performance of Running Backs and Wide Receivers (2016)

 

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Predictive value of National Football League scouting combine on future performance of running backs and wide receivers. J Strength Cond Res 30(5): 1379–1390, 2016—The National Football League (NFL) Scouting Combine is held each year before the NFL Draft to measure athletic abilities and football skills of college football players. Although the NFL Scouting Combine can provide the NFL teams with an opportunity to evaluate college players for the upcoming NFL Draft, its value for predicting future success of players has been questioned. This study examined whether the NFL Combine measures can predict future performance of running backs (RBs) and wide receivers (WRs) in the NFL. We analyzed the 2000–09 Combine data of RBs (N = 276) and WRs (N = 447) and their on-field performance for the first 3 years after the draft and over their entire careers in the NFL, using correlation and regression analyses, along with a principal component analysis (PCA). The results of the analyses showed that, after accounting for the number of games played, draft position, height (HT), and weight (WT), the time on 10-yard dash was the most important predictor of rushing yards per attempt of the first 3 years (p = 0.002) and of the careers (p < 0.001) in RBs. For WRs, vertical jump was found to be significantly associated with receiving yards per reception of the first 3 years (p = 0.001) and of the careers (p = 0.004) in the NFL, after adjusting for the covariates above. Furthermore, HT was most important in predicting future performance of WRs. The analyses also revealed that the 8 athletic drills in the Combine seemed to have construct validity. It seems that the NFL Scouting Combine has some value for predicting future performance of RBs and WRs in the NFL.

 

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2 minutes ago, TJM217 said:

Wow cool study. I completely disagree with the conclusion and application of the study but still interesting. Also Isiah Thompson in 2011!! 6.06 40 time!! Gus Fielder with a +9 second 3 cone lol 

I would really like to see how NFL teams use the combine data.   Is it pushed through a bunch of weight/height formulas and the raw data is just the beginning number and the other pieces are also used to flesh out the value of the tests that fans don't fully grasp.  

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8 hours ago, squire12 said:

I would really like to see how NFL teams use the combine data.   Is it pushed through a bunch of weight/height formulas and the raw data is just the beginning number and the other pieces are also used to flesh out the value of the tests that fans don't fully grasp.  

I've heard from a few different places that combine/pro day testing is more about meeting minimum thresholds than expecting the best underwear Olympic performers to be the best football players.  Make sure someone isn't slower than you thought, or lacked strength, or confirm something you think you saw on film that can be hidden at the college level.  If a guy you think has motor issues bombs his testing, probably want to stay away.  If a guy you thought was a stud on film meets all your minimum thresholds, but tests more like an above average athlete than like a freak, it's likely fine.

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There are many versions of that. Always interesting to look at. Here's one that had a finding nobody prefers to believe but continues to hold up:. Speed is overrated for wide receivers and underrated for running backs

https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~aldous/Research/Ugrad/Paul_Park.pdf

"However, 40-yard dash is the one drill that could make a difference. Even in the NFL, the ability to run fast for 40 yards seems to be a defining factor for dominating the game. For wide receivers, running fast did not simply translate to NFL success, but it appears that the notion of fast equals better is true to a certain degree for running backs."

 

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On 4/13/2021 at 6:46 AM, THE DUKE said:

I've heard from a few different places that combine/pro day testing is more about meeting minimum thresholds than expecting the best underwear Olympic performers to be the best football players.

This is 90 percent of the value of the combine measurables. It checks guys off the list more than anything else. Prospects that don’t fall into the red zone of numbers on any drill are generally good prospects.

Those numbers can also put a lot of tape into a better context.

That said, the combine drills are a ******* goldmine for scouting. The mirror drill for OLs is particularly useful. I also find most of the DB drills to be very helpful, especially in seeing how stiff the hips are.

For RBs, WRs, and QBs though, the drills don’t do much.

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5 minutes ago, Daniel said:

That said, the combine drills are a ******* goldmine for scouting. The mirror drill for OLs is particularly useful. I also find most of the DB drills to be very helpful, especially in seeing how stiff the hips are.

The mirror drill is very useful for gauging reaction and lateral quickness and burst, but so much of line play is about how that is done through contact that even those have an asterisk next to it. 

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1 hour ago, THE DUKE said:

The mirror drill is very useful for gauging reaction and lateral quickness and burst, but so much of line play is about how that is done through contact that even those have an asterisk next to it. 

Of course. All of them do, and tape is king. But I definitely feel the appropriate part of the combine to diss on is the measurables.

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