Cut the BS/Personal Choice.... evidence based look at pick #24

[kurgan]

 

Ok... I am going to try to use science to find out who the Steelers are taking here at #24 (Sorry, married a science teacher).  One of my favorite sayings is 'the best indicator of future events is past events.'  (Sorry, I'm a history teacher).

THINGS WE KNOW:

1. We are not trading this pick.  In 19 drafts in charge, Colbert has only traded up 3 times (for a 100% target that was plain as day) and down once, way back in 2001.  So, be prepared for pick #24.
2. Since 2009, Colbert/Tomlin have ONLY drafted from teams that both went to the Pro Day.  That gives us this list:
   1. Clemson
   2. Georgia
   3. Auburn
   4. Florida State
   5. Penn State
   6. Michigan
   7. Ohio State
   8. Notre Dame
   9. Alabama
3. Tombert drafts P5 players
4. Tombert loves SPARQ-y/RAS athletes
5. Tombert loves NFL bloodlines
6. Tombert love Senior Bowl Players
7. Tombert prefers underclassmen/non-seniors (willing to maybe overlook this year with COVID/Claypool)
8. Tombert is willing to take 'reaches' in the first round (Top 75-100 players-Burns/Edmunds) as their first pick if they are hyper athletic.
9. Tombert use a mix of BPA/positional need.
10. Note:  I am not going to use reported Zoom meetings.  Those are scattered and who knows if people are making things up for their clients.

 

So, I am going to start by listing the Top 100 players from each of the 9 Pro Day schools (* are 75+ via PFN):

1. Trevor Lawrence, QB Clemson
2. Travis Etienne, RB Clemson
3. Jackson Carman, OT Clemson
4. Azeez Ojulari, Edge UGA
5. Tyson Campbell, CB UGA
6. Eric Stokes, CB UGA
7. Anthony Schwartz, WR Auburn*
8. Asante Samuel Jr, CB Florida State
9. Micah Parsons, OLB Penn State
10. Jason Oweh, OLB Penn State
11. Pat Friermuth, TE Penn State
12. Kwity Paye, Edge Michigan
13. Jaylen Mayfield, OL Michigan
14. Cam McGrone, LB Michigan*
15. Nico Collins, WR Michigan*
16. Justin Fields, QB Ohio State
17. Wyatt Davis, OL Ohio State
18. Josh Meyers, C Ohio State
19. Pete Werner, LB Ohio State
20. Barron Browning, LB Ohio State
21. Tommy Togiai, NG Ohio State*
22. Trey Sermon, RB Ohio State*
23. JOK, LB Notre Dame
24. Liam Eichenberg, OT Notre Dame
25. Tommy Tremble, TE Notre Dame*
26. Pat Surtain II, CB Alabama
27. Jaylen Waddle, WR Alabama
28. DeVonta Smith, WR Alabama
29. Najee Harris, RB Alabama
30. Mac Jones, QB Alabama
31. Alex Leatherwood, OT Alabama
32. Christian Barmore, DT Alabama
33. Dylan Moses, LB Alabama
34. Landon Dickerson, C Alabama

 

OK, 34 names.  Let's start thinning the herd a little bit.  Let's take off any sure fire guys that will be taken before we pick, like 100%.  And, let's take off the obvious reaches that are in no way going to be the 24th best player/have better players in front of them/not athletic freaks.  Let's also take off Parsons as character red flags (def not the Steeler way):

1. Trevor Lawrence, QB Clemson
2. Travis Etienne, RB Clemson
3. Jackson Carman, OT Clemson
4. Azeez Ojulari, Edge UGA
5. Tyson Campbell, CB UGA
6. Eric Stokes, CB UGA
7. Anthony Schwartz, WR Auburn*
8. Asante Samuel Jr, CB Florida State
9. Micah Parsons, OLB Penn State
10. Jason Oweh, OLB Penn State
11. Pat Friermuth, TE Penn State
12. Kwity Paye, Edge Michigan
13. Jaylen Mayfield, OL Michigan
14. Cam McGrone, LB Michigan*
15. Nico Collins, WR Michigan*
16. Justin Fields, QB Ohio State
17. Wyatt Davis, OL Ohio State
18. Josh Meyers, C Ohio State
19. Pete Werner, LB Ohio State
20. Barron Browning, LB Ohio State
21. Tommy Togiai, NG Ohio State*
22. Trey Sermon, RB Ohio State*
23. JOK, LB Notre Dame
24. Liam Eichenberg, OT Notre Dame
25. Tommy Tremble, TE Notre Dame*
26. Pat Surtain II, CB Alabama
27. Jaylen Waddle, WR Alabama
28. DeVonta Smith, WR Alabama
29. Najee Harris, RB Alabama
30. Mac Jones, QB Alabama
31. Alex Leatherwood, OT Alabama
32. Christian Barmore, DT Alabama
33. Dylan Moses, LB Alabama
34. Landon Dickerson, C Alabama

To define great athletes, let's use a RAS composite score of 7 as a baseline (*-did not test/injured/private workout):

1. Travis Etienne, RB Clemson-9.14
2. Jackson Carman, OT Clemson
3. Azeez Ojulari, Edge UGA-8.17
4. Tyson Campbell, CB UGA-7.51
5. Eric Stokes, CB UGA-9.38
6. Asante Samuel Jr, CB Florida State-7.46
7. Jason Oweh, OLB Penn State-9.92!
8. Pat Friermuth, TE Penn State-*
9. Jaylen Mayfield, OL Michigan
10. Wyatt Davis, OL Ohio State
11. Josh Meyers, C Ohio State
12. Pete Werner, LB Ohio State-9.52
13. Barron Browning, LB Ohio State-9.98
14. JOK, LB Notre Dame-8.71
15. Liam Eichenberg, OT Notre Dame-8.55
16. Najee Harris, RB Alabama-*
17. Alex Leatherwood, OT Alabama-9.68
18. Christian Barmore, DT Alabama-8.22
19. Landon Dickerson, C Alabama-*

 

Subjective Parts (Lesser because these are not done deals... they are preferred, but with a cumulative deal.  If a player has none of the 3, they are striken:  Points for Senior Bowl (bold), NFL Bloodlines (underlined), 3rd coach is position coach at Pro Day (italics)

1. Travis Etienne, RB Clemson-9.14
2. Azeez Ojulari, Edge UGA-8.17
3. Tyson Campbell, CB UGA-7.51
4. Eric Stokes, CB UGA-9.38
5. Asante Samuel Jr, CB Florida State-7.46
6. Jason Oweh, OLB Penn State-9.92!
7. Pat Friermuth, TE Penn State-*
8. Pete Werner, LB Ohio State-9.52
9. Barron Browning, LB Ohio State-9.98
10. JOK, LB Notre Dame-8.71
11. Liam Eichenberg, OT Notre Dame-8.55
12. Najee Harris, RB Alabama-*
13. Alex Leatherwood, OT Alabama-9.68
14. Christian Barmore, DT Alabama-8.22
15. Landon Dickerson, C Alabama-*

+++++

These 10 are the scientific top 10 picks for #24.  Time to rank them.

1. Travis Etienne, RB Clemson-9.14
2. Tyson Campbell, CB UGA-7.51
3. Eric Stokes, CB UGA-9.38
4. Asante Samuel Jr, CB Florida State-7.46
5. Pat Friermuth, TE Penn State-*
6. Barron Browning, LB Ohio State-9.98
7. Liam Eichenberg, OT Notre Dame-8.55
8. Najee Harris, RB Alabama-*
9. Alex Leatherwood, OT Alabama-9.68
10. Landon Dickerson, C Alabama-*

 

First: look for outliers from scientific data: 

1. Travis Etienne, RB Clemson-9.14
2. Tyson Campbell, CB UGA-7.51 
3. Eric Stokes, CB UGA-9.38
4. Asante Samuel Jr, CB Florida State-7.46
5. Pat Friermuth, TE Penn State-*
6. Barron Browning, LB Ohio State-9.98
7. Liam Eichenberg, OT Notre Dame-8.55
8. Najee Harris, RB Alabama-*
9. Alex Leatherwood, OT Alabama-9.68
10. Landon Dickerson, C Alabama-*

As much as I love UGA, Campbell's athletic testing is bad.  Also, as much as ASJ is a NFL bloodline guy, that is bad as well, paired with no senior bowl/position coach.  At this point, I also have to take Dickerson off, but with a caveat.  I have no idea his medicals, and if they are good, he is in.  But, the Steelers don't like risks.  

Second: Positional Needs for 2021.  Steelers like drafting starters.

1. Travis Etienne, RB Clemson-9.14
2. Eric Stokes, CB UGA-9.38
3. Pat Friermuth, TE Penn State-*
4. Barron Browning, LB Ohio State-9.98
5. Liam Eichenberg, OT Notre Dame-8.55
6. Najee Harris, RB Alabama-*
7. Alex Leatherwood, OT Alabama-9.68

TE is "set" with Ebron and our reliance on 11 personnel.  LB is 'set' with Bush, VWill, Spillane, etc... OT has bodies with Banner, Chuks and *gulp* Haeg.  Before you all kill me, we lost 2 CBs this year and Stokes has played slot and outside, and can play where Sutton isn't.

TOP 3:

1. Travis Etienne, RB Clemson
2. Eric Stokes, CB UGA
3. Najee Harris, RB Alabama

So, who is the top?  The SPARQ-y RB with an advanced game, but a smaller frame that Canada saw live??  The big bruiser that has been leading this race since the end of the year??  Or the darkhorse made from scratch prospect with silly athletic testing, and is made for our defense?

 

Final List:

1. Najee Harris
2. Travis Etienne
3. Eric Stokes
4. Alex Leatherwood
5. Barron Browning
6. Liam Eichenberg
7. Pat Friermuth
8. Asante Samuel Jr.
9. Tyson Campbell
10. Landon Dickerson*

(Edit: Final thoughts on the rankings.  I think Harris is #1 guy here, and the only thing that dings him is his workout numbers since he did his own private ones.  Etienne is #2, and it is as transparent as the Bush pick that we are circling RB early here.  Stokes is #3 for me due to athletic testing, need and the fact that Tombert was jojned by the DB coach at his Pro Day.  He is super SPARQ-y and a self-made man, also qualities Tombert love.  Leatherwood was a surprise with his numbers, and is much more athletic and versitlie that I thought.  He has the experience and pedigree Tombert love.  Browning was a surprise, but with his numbers, his Senior Bowl participation and periphery need, he is a solid 5 and has an Edumunds feel to him.

Eichenberg was an early favorite, and the Klemm at the Pro Day is huge.  He feels like a Steeler, but 24 is rich.  Same with Friermuth, and I think both are targets at 55.  ASJ feels low here, but his testing was not great at all.  I know we value bloodlines and have no idea who coach #3 was, but he could rocket up.  Campbell is a project all-star with Burns vibe to me.  Dickerson is the ultimate wild card.  If he is cleared with a bill of health and bad luck, he feels like a Steeler and a STEAL at 24.  The cartwheels help guys.)

 

Ok, there it is.  Not saying that Azeez Ojulari or Caleb Fairley aren't the pick, just that science shows us otherwise.  If we follow the clues, no matter how we personally feel about it (I know I am not a fan of a Rd 1 RB) there is no way around it.

I welcome all thoughts. 

Thanks for coming to my TED talk.

Edited April 18, 2021 by kurgan
Added thoughts on final ranking.

[VigilantZombie]

If that final list is even remotely accurate, I believe the pick would be either Travis Ettiene or Asante Samuel Jr and tbh I'd prefer ASJ

[AFF]

Nice work and I’m guessing time consuming.

I agree pretty much on list except for having ASJ higher.

Hed be in my top 5 most likely for sure.

Stokes is pretty interesting and a name I rarely see mocked to us but he checks a lot of boxes.

[MOSteelers56]

I’m in agreement with the last two. ASJ is my ideal CB prospect. He’s the CB that can’t bust for the team that seems incapable of drafting a successful CB. 

[kurgan]

Thanks for the feedback... I tried to cast a wide net and cut it down with the data I had.

In Stokes vs. ASJ, I guess it is how much athletic testing means vs NFL bloodlines in the end.  Stokes is much better athlete, and is taller.  I don't think it was a coincidence that the Steelers brought along the new DB coach to the UGA Pro Day.  I was shocked he made it this far, and I can tell you he is slot/outside versitile like Sutton.

He may not have the name/swagger of ASJ but Stokes may actually fit better.  It also depends on how much the reported Zoom meeting actually means.

BUT... if Harris/Etienne are there, I don't think it makes much difference.

[kurgan]

I added some more analysis at the end of the Top 10 to the OP.

[43M]

Very nice work.  Clearly put alot of work into this.

As someone who isnt super familiar with most players in this draft, this helps a lot.

RB absolutely seems like the most likely pick....but teams also know we desperately need a RB, so if the front office is serious about upgrading the RB position and have a particular player they want, they better not just sit back and watch.    I know we have lost out on several players we had targeted because we were just hoping the player would fall (Darrelle Revis comes to mind, and I dont think for one second that Artie Burns was our original target that year).     Im not huge on RB in the first round, but we have absolutely nothing at the position as it stands right now, so if they want Etienne and/or Harris, they better not just sit there and wait.     I wont be shocked if at least one RB is taken several picks before us, and then prompts another team to attempts a trade up.

Not that we really have the ammo for a trade up....nor do I want to waste extra draft capital on a RB....but if its who they want, dont be stupid.   That has burned us in the past.

[kurgan]

6 hours ago, 43M said:

Very nice work.  Clearly put alot of work into this.

As someone who isnt super familiar with most players in this draft, this helps a lot.

RB absolutely seems like the most likely pick....but teams also know we desperately need a RB, so if the front office is serious about upgrading the RB position and have a particular player they want, they better not just sit back and watch.    I know we have lost out on several players we had targeted because we were just hoping the player would fall (Darrelle Revis comes to mind, and I dont think for one second that Artie Burns was our original target that year).     Im not huge on RB in the first round, but we have absolutely nothing at the position as it stands right now, so if they want Etienne and/or Harris, they better not just sit there and wait.     I wont be shocked if at least one RB is taken several picks before us, and then prompts another team to attempts a trade up.

Not that we really have the ammo for a trade up....nor do I want to waste extra draft capital on a RB....but if its who they want, dont be stupid.   That has burned us in the past.

Thanks... I appreciate that.

I always look back after drafts and think that who we are targeting is SOOOO apparent, and as much as I personally want someone different, they seem to not really hide who they are interested in.  As much as I would love a CB/IOL here and a Trey Sermon in the 2nd/3rd, we seem locked in on RB here.  I know the Fins have been interested in Harris at #18, and while I haven't heard much on Etienne, anything is possible.

I think these things can backfire on Tombert when they are so transparent (ala WJ3).  I think they have grown and have solid backup plans now, and not a panic pick like Burns.  If Harris/Etienne are gone, I think they will go to someone lower on this list, even if it is a reach.  I'd hope for Stokes/ASJ or Dickerson (if cleared) but who knows.

[jebrick]

I would put Etienne in front because he is younger.  I would rather have Etienne than Harris just because I want a chance at break-away runs

 

I would hate Leatherwood only because I think he is a RT in the NFL.

Edited April 18, 2021 by jebrick

[warfelg]

10 minutes ago, jebrick said:

I would put Etienne in front because he is younger.  I would rather have Etienne than Harris just because I want a chance at break-away runs

 

I would hate Leatherwood only because I think he is a RT in the NFL.

I rather have Etienne because he's a better fit for the scheme Canada likes based on historical trends.

 

Also I'm gonna throw my draft hot take out there:

My Travis Etienne NFL comp is Christian McCaffery.

 

Etienne:

5'10 1/8" - 215 lbs - 9 3/8" hands

40 time: 4.40

20 split: 2.50

10 split: 1.56

Vert: 33.5"

Broad: 128"

McCaffery:

5' 11" - 202 lbs - 9" hands

40 time: 4.48

20 split: 2.60

10 split: 1.55

Vert: 37.5" 

Broad: 121"

 

[kurgan]

While I am and have always been a "no RB in the first round" type guy, it is hard to not get excited about the prospect of Etienne here.  Between all of the beacons, with Dulac's article, I would circle Etienne with magic marker at this point.

I hate projecting players based on coaches (we see how quickly coaches change) but this just makes too much sense, IMO.

[Big Snack]

6 hours ago, warfelg said:

I rather have Etienne because he's a better fit for the scheme Canada likes based on historical trends.

 

Also I'm gonna throw my draft hot take out there:

My Travis Etienne NFL comp is Christian McCaffery.

 

Etienne:

5'10 1/8" - 215 lbs - 9 3/8" hands

40 time: 4.40

20 split: 2.50

10 split: 1.56

Vert: 33.5"

Broad: 128"

McCaffery:

5' 11" - 202 lbs - 9" hands

40 time: 4.48

20 split: 2.60

10 split: 1.55

Vert: 37.5" 

Broad: 121"

 

I like it. Now I mentioned Etienne on the team almost 2 years ago but my comp after his freshman year was Jamal charles. I hope he gets close to either because I snagged him cheap in devy leagues after that freshman season. 

[bigben07MVP]

8 hours ago, warfelg said:

I rather have Etienne because he's a better fit for the scheme Canada likes based on historical trends.

 

Also I'm gonna throw my draft hot take out there:

My Travis Etienne NFL comp is Christian McCaffery.

 

Etienne:

5'10 1/8" - 215 lbs - 9 3/8" hands

40 time: 4.40

20 split: 2.50

10 split: 1.56

Vert: 33.5"

Broad: 128"

McCaffery:

5' 11" - 202 lbs - 9" hands

40 time: 4.48

20 split: 2.60

10 split: 1.55

Vert: 37.5" 

Broad: 121"

 

Comparing him to CMC is overselling his route running and underselling his power IMO. Etienne also has a much better build than CMC.

The only two teams we have to worry about are the Dolphins at 18 and Jets at 23. With Miami, I have a hard time seeing them spend a first round pick on a running back. Myles Gaskin a 6th round pick had a good season for them last year. And remember last year when 75% of mock drafts had them taking Swift in the first and they ended up passing on all the top RBs multiple times and traded a late pick on Matt Brieda. They do not seem to want to spend high draft capital on the position.

Jets could definitely take one but they just have too many holes elsewhere so I think they will pass. Unless a team trades up to jump us I see us having our choice between Harris and Etienne.

[Big Snack]

19 hours ago, 43M said:

Very nice work.  Clearly put alot of work into this.

As someone who isnt super familiar with most players in this draft, this helps a lot.

RB absolutely seems like the most likely pick....but teams also know we desperately need a RB, so if the front office is serious about upgrading the RB position and have a particular player they want, they better not just sit back and watch.    I know we have lost out on several players we had targeted because we were just hoping the player would fall (Darrelle Revis comes to mind, and I dont think for one second that Artie Burns was our original target that year).     Im not huge on RB in the first round, but we have absolutely nothing at the position as it stands right now, so if they want Etienne and/or Harris, they better not just sit there and wait.     I wont be shocked if at least one RB is taken several picks before us, and then prompts another team to attempts a trade up.

Not that we really have the ammo for a trade up....nor do I want to waste extra draft capital on a RB....but if its who they want, dont be stupid.   That has burned us in the past.

I have thought about this myself in regards to us staying true to the board and missing on our guy, Revis to be exact. I am not opposed to the idea that if etienne is there at 22 to move up 2 spots( would cost us our 4th round comp pick #140) to just get it done. Last thing I want to see is the fins take harris and the jets take etienne right in front of us and we miss out on them.

[cjfollett]

I'm sorry, but I think the analysis is flawed from the beginning. In every list you have Etienne at #2, and he is never eliminated when it seems to me there are better options for RB in later rounds.

That said, I also think you fail to consider the Steelers current depth chart, which clearly shows a huge hole at OLB, plus a greater need for CB and C

Now then, I am not an expert by any means, and I would not be surprised if RB is the pick at #24. However, if I were to bet (and I wouldn't), I'd say the odds for the pick at #24 are 50% OLB, 25% CB, 15% C, and 10% RB. 

I could be persuaded to swap CB and C depending on the player available, but I would be hard pressed to increase the RB percentage without more convincing data.