Cut the BS/Personal Choice.... evidence based look at pick #24

[43M]

1 hour ago, cjfollett said:

I'm sorry, but I think the analysis is flawed from the beginning. In every list you have Etienne at #2, and he is never eliminated when it seems to me there are better options for RB in later rounds.

First off, Im not sure those are HIS rankings per se, but if they are, thats his opinion.   

Secondly, did you even read his reasoning for eliminating players?   Doesnt seem like you did.   He elimimated players based on a certain set of facts.

Third...just because you believe there are better RB options later doesnt make it true.   In fact, you're probably in the extreme minority with that thinking.   Not necessarily saying youre wrong, but youre merely challenging his opinion with your own, so its kind of silly to say HIS analysis is flawed when youre not even providing one.

Quote

That said, I also think you fail to consider the Steelers current depth chart, which clearly shows a huge hole at OLB, plus a greater need for CB and C

I think you are failing to consider SEVERAL things.

Whether you like or trust Highsmith or not, he is 99% going to be start next to Watt in 2021.   They drafted him specifically to be Duprees replacement.   So the chances of us drafting OLB early are very slim.

CB is a major need, for sure...but we are picking 24th.    Typically, the top end CBs are off the board by then.   And the last time we forced a CB pick in the mid 20s, it didnt end well (Burns).   Not saying a decent one wont be there, but it will depend who is at the top of Tomberts board.

C is obviously a major need too, but I dont know that there is a center thats definitely going to be worth a first round pick.  Again, it will come down to who is ob top of their board.

As far as RB goes...Im not a fan of drafting RB early, but Ive warmed up to it for several reasons.   The Steelers have already stated that the running game needs to improve, and right now, we have ZILCH at RB.   With Ben returning, they need to get someone who can take the pressure off him.    Im not opposed to an OLineman....but a RB drafted at 24 has a better chance of making an immediate impact than a rookie LT or safety.

Quote

Now then, I am not an expert by any means, and I would not be surprised if RB is the pick at #24. However, if I were to bet (and I wouldn't), I'd say the odds for the pick at #24 are 50% OLB, 25% CB, 15% C, and 10% RB. 

Switch the odds for RB and OLB, and I agree.

Unless its someone they fall in love with, the chances of OLB being the first pick are extremely low IMO.   

My GUESSTIMATED odds would be more like...

35% RB

25% LT

20% CB

15% IOL

4% OLB

1%  Other position

Quote

I could be persuaded to swap CB and C depending on the player available, but I would be hard pressed to increase the RB percentage without more convincing data.

Where is the data to support your percentages?   

You're free to believe what you want, but based on the current makeup of the roster and the facts I'M seeing, I dont agree with your assessment at all...especially when it comes to RB and OLB.

[Neumatic]

3 hours ago, cjfollett said:

I'm sorry, but I think the analysis is flawed from the beginning. In every list you have Etienne at #2, and he is never eliminated when it seems to me there are better options for RB in later rounds.

That said, I also think you fail to consider the Steelers current depth chart, which clearly shows a huge hole at OLB, plus a greater need for CB and C

Now then, I am not an expert by any means, and I would not be surprised if RB is the pick at #24. However, if I were to bet (and I wouldn't), I'd say the odds for the pick at #24 are 50% OLB, 25% CB, 15% C, and 10% RB. 

I could be persuaded to swap CB and C depending on the player available, but I would be hard pressed to increase the RB percentage without more convincing data.

The initial list is just a list of all the Top 100 prospects at each school that we attended the Pro Day of, there is zero ranking until he had a list of 10. The whole point of his post was to take away as much opinion as possible and base it on Tomlin and Colberts tendencies, not to eliminate or not eliminate players based on personal opinion.    @kurganwas pretty thorough in his explanations so I'm not sure where you think Etienne should have been eliminated, feel free to enlighten us. Also it's not even that he didn't consider the current roster, its that the players at those positions didn't meet the criteria. 

[kurgan]

7 hours ago, cjfollett said:

I'm sorry, but I think the analysis is flawed from the beginning. In every list you have Etienne at #2, and he is never eliminated when it seems to me there are better options for RB in later rounds.

That said, I also think you fail to consider the Steelers current depth chart, which clearly shows a huge hole at OLB, plus a greater need for CB and C

Now then, I am not an expert by any means, and I would not be surprised if RB is the pick at #24. However, if I were to bet (and I wouldn't), I'd say the odds for the pick at #24 are 50% OLB, 25% CB, 15% C, and 10% RB. 

I could be persuaded to swap CB and C depending on the player available, but I would be hard pressed to increase the RB percentage without more convincing data.

 

First, this is only an examination of pick #24.  The trends, the visits, the things that Tombert has looked for since they have been together.  I literally tried to take subjective feelings out until the last 10, and only at the end.

I never eliminated anyone based on my feelings.  The only gripe that may have been was the RAS score, and I have no data for that.  7 is pretty midrange, but we always look for better athletes anyway.

I didn't have any other RBs on the list due to them not being at their pro day.  No Oklahoma, no North Carolina, no Memphis, etc.  Again, not saying they won't be Day 2 selections, but they will not be the pick at #24.

Moreover, you talk about holes in the roster, and then say OLB at #24.  We have 2 starters there.  Are you going to draft Ojulari or Oweh to bench Highsmith and still have a hole at RB??  This is not the forum for this particular conversation, but that makes no sense at all.  In addition, at their pro days, the Edge coach wasn't even there.

[jebrick]

On the EDGE in this draft, there are very very few (2 ) quality prospects but a lot of decent developmental picks.  That is why I had CBunn draft William Bradly-King in the 6th round of the Forum mock.  There are about 20 or so decent EDGE players in this draft.  All are developmental but show good abilities.  There are some that are ranked high that I would not touch for the Steelers (Rousseau, Paye, Ojulari ), so what is left are developmental OLBs.

[MOSteelers56]

Speaking of EDGE, I kind of like the kid from Texas. Ossai or whatever. He seems like a decent development kind of player we need. He plays hard and is athletic, but needs refining. He'd be a solid second rounder. 

[kurgan]

3 hours ago, jebrick said:

On the EDGE in this draft, there are very very few (2 ) quality prospects but a lot of decent developmental picks.  That is why I had CBunn draft William Bradly-King in the 6th round of the Forum mock.  There are about 20 or so decent EDGE players in this draft.  All are developmental but show good abilities.  There are some that are ranked high that I would not touch for the Steelers (Rousseau, Paye, Ojulari ), so what is left are developmental OLBs.

100%.  The meat of the Edge class, for me, is 2-3 (just like OC, TBH).  I'm really on Robinson of FSU, Johnson of Tulane, or Tryon of UW.

 

Just curious.... why are you down on Ojulari??  Measurables??  Athleticism??  Saw a player comp to Porter the other day, and as a UGA fan, I'd blow up if he came here.  I think he fits like a glove...

[jebrick]

34 minutes ago, kurgan said:

100%.  The meat of the Edge class, for me, is 2-3 (just like OC, TBH).  I'm really on Robinson of FSU, Johnson of Tulane, or Tryon of UW.

 

Just curious.... why are you down on Ojulari??  Measurables??  Athleticism??  Saw a player comp to Porter the other day, and as a UGA fan, I'd blow up if he came here.  I think he fits like a glove...

I watch the film.  Anytime he goes against a decent Ot he get handled.  His better blitzes come when he is off tackle on stuns or delays.  I do not think he has shown he could line up over a OT in the NFL and do anything.  I think he is either a 9 tech or an off the ball OLB in the 4-3.

 

Watch him vs Bama

 

Leathrewood erases him and I think Leatherwood is a RT in the NFL.  Once the Ot gets his hands on Ojulari it is all over.  He gets one decent rush on the first play of the game.  Watch him vs the run

[MOSteelers56]

@jebrick do you think he could develop into a more well rounded player? He could spell Watt and Highsmith as a pass rush specialist early in his career, and develop into a starter in year 2-3? I'm not particularly interested in taking him in rd. 1, just curious to get your opinion on the matter. 

[bigben07MVP]

44 minutes ago, kurgan said:

100%.  The meat of the Edge class, for me, is 2-3 (just like OC, TBH).  I'm really on Robinson of FSU, Johnson of Tulane, or Tryon of UW..

I'm curious why you're high on Robinson. I watched every game of his career and he never stood out to me as anything other than an occasional liability. He only had 8 sacks over a 4 year career. I know he had some moments in 2020 but overall I just always viewed his career as a disappointment and one of the reasons FSU has had a non-existent pass rush the last few seasons. Maybe you've seen something while watching his film that I never picked up on watching FSU games. 

[jebrick]

 

17 minutes ago, MOSteelers56 said:

@jebrick do you think he could develop into a more well rounded player? He could spell Watt and Highsmith as a pass rush specialist early in his career, and develop into a starter in year 2-3? I'm not particularly interested in taking him in rd. 1, just curious to get your opinion on the matter. 

I just do not see the explosiveness that you saw with Watt.  He is also 6'2 and his length is telling against tackles.  He already plays zone well.  I just do not see him holding the EDGE on running plays.  He would be much better as a 9.

 

Compare him to Patrick Johnson of Tulane who is a day 3 pick.  Tulane sucks but you can watch the difference in what he does.

If you say there is not much difference then that is the point.  There are other guys like Johnson in the draft.  No need to waste a high pick on a OLB prospect when there are many other in the same skill level on day 3

Edited April 19, 2021 by jebrick

[MOSteelers56]

Good stuff @jebrick

 

[kurgan]

Not that I wanted this to descend into an edge rusher discussion, but I do not mind.  This is actually a pretty neat juxtaposion.

@jebrick... I can see where you are coming from, and I admit that it is something that gives pause, but I don't see it as a unfixable issue. I really don't think you can watch one game and make a decision (and I am not saying you are) but there are games/clips of him dominating guys and especially in setting the edge.  If anything, I think his run defense is NFL ready, and will have to work on pass rush moves in order really excel.  His hands and outside leverage really are unique.

Yes, the Bama game was not as good, but there are reps he took against other teams that are much better and show more of what he is capable of.  You can also see his trajectory if you watch the 2019 Bama game and the 2020, as he got much better.  The Baylor Bowl game last year, he took over.  He was a presence in the Cincinatti game.  Even the FU game, in a loss, he was working Stone Forsythe, an 2-3 Rd tackle.

https://steelersdepot.com/2021/02/2021-nfl-draft-player-profiles-georgia-edge-azeez-ojulari/

Is worth a read.  Scheme and technique wise, he is a ready-to-play fit.  I think what makes him non-elite is the refined pass rush skills, but he is a sound player with great measurables.

 

@bigben07MVP... I will admit that I know less about Robinson.  I've watched FSU causally, and then really use the Depot stuff (https://steelersdepot.com/2021/03/2021-nfl-draft-player-profiles-florida-state-edge-janarius-robinson/)and then look at stuff on my own that I find of the guys that interest me.  

For me, Robinson is a guy that I feel like might be a better pro than college player.  Without rehashing FSU stuff, I feel a stable environment with professionals will do him some good.  He is moldable clay that has is traitsy and has a great motor.

[kurgan]

46 minutes ago, jebrick said:

I watch the film.  Anytime he goes against a decent Ot he get handled.  His better blitzes come when he is off tackle on stuns or delays.  I do not think he has shown he could line up over a OT in the NFL and do anything.  I think he is either a 9 tech or an off the ball OLB in the 4-3.

 

Watch him vs Bama

 

Leathrewood erases him and I think Leatherwood is a RT in the NFL.  Once the Ot gets his hands on Ojulari it is all over.  He gets one decent rush on the first play of the game.  Watch him vs the run

I watched this again to make sure I was not seeing something different.  I am MORE convinced he is plug and play.  He drops into zones, rushes over guards, takes the RB out of the flats, and he does set the edge strong flow and weak pull flow.  The running play where Harris's helmet popped off was because AO took on a guard in the hole and he had to bounce.  He fought LEatherwood's outside shoulder and kept contain on several plays.  He plays the rover into the middle zone.

Other than a slower that noted get off, I am not sure what else to bang him on.  Even at his height, he had 2 passes knocked down at the line. 

 

[bigben07MVP]

 

@kurgan Pete Schrager has us taking Stokes at 24 with Etienne, JOK, Jenkins all off the board. Najee Harris and ASJ both still on the board. 

I’m starting to get more worried that Etienne will be the first back selected over Harris. He has Etienne going 19 to the Redskins which is something I haven’t given much thought to. He has Harris falling out of the 1st. Seems like people are finally starting to open their eyes.

[Dcash4]

51 minutes ago, bigben07MVP said:

He has Etienne going 19 to the Redskins which is something I haven’t given much thought to

I would continue to not give thought to it. Antonio Gibson was really good for them last year and will only grow as they expand his impressive receiving talents. I like Peter, but that was an incredibly weird pick.