Cut the BS/Personal Choice.... evidence based look at pick #24

[kurgan]

12 minutes ago, bigben07MVP said:

 

@kurgan Pete Schrager has us taking Stokes at 24 with Etienne, JOK, Jenkins all off the board. Najee Harris and ASJ both still on the board. 

I’m starting to get more worried that Etienne will be the first back selected over Harris. He has Etienne going 19 to the Redskins which is something I haven’t given much thought to. He has Harris falling out of the 1st. Seems like people are finally starting to open their eyes.

This stuff was the catalyst for me doing this to begin with.

Like most guys (and maybe girls... IDK) Colbert and Tomlin have a type.  They have 10 clear indicators they look for in the first pick.  Even taking out the visits, you can see a clear trend.  I know national media types can not really go this in depth for 32 teams, but I have learned that for my predictive mock, my desire to learn how we do things, and my own OCD nature that following the breadcrumbs is not only fun and insightful, but eye opening in some ways.

As far as Stokes... he fits a lot of boxes.  We can argue CB need, but he has a great story (3* RB, last player in the class, moved to DB, worked and worked over higher ranked players) and is now a super SPARQ-y (9.38) scheme diverse CB that has played slot and outside and is a ballhawk.  Tombert came to pro day with new DB coach.  Even though he is projected as Late 1-Early 2, it would be a mild reach but we know Colbert doesn't care about that.

All in all, smart money is on a RB.  I'm torn on which one, but if they both go early, I could see Stokes as an option.

[bigben07MVP]

48 minutes ago, Dcash4 said:

I would continue to not give thought to it. Antonio Gibson was really good for them last year and will only grow as they expand his impressive receiving talents. I like Peter, but that was an incredibly weird pick. 

Yes but outside of Gibson they have JD Mckissic who is strictly a receiving back and...Peyton Barber (who are both on the last year of their contracts). They really don’t have that many holes..the defense is loaded and they spent good money on WR in free agency. They need a LT but in this scenario with Jenkins and Darrisaw off the board it might make sense to just add the best “offensive weapon” if they are high on him.

[cjfollett]

On 4/19/2021 at 1:24 AM, 43M said:

First off, Im not sure those are HIS rankings per se, but if they are, thats his opinion.   

Secondly, did you even read his reasoning for eliminating players?   Doesnt seem like you did.   He elimimated players based on a certain set of facts.

Third...just because you believe there are better RB options later doesnt make it true.   In fact, you're probably in the extreme minority with that thinking.   Not necessarily saying youre wrong, but youre merely challenging his opinion with your own, so its kind of silly to say HIS analysis is flawed when youre not even providing one.

Maybe I misunderstood the ranking list. Kurgan has Etienne at #2 out of #34. PFF has him at #42, Sporting News #29, DraftTek #26. They are all opinions as well. I did read his entire post, and I just believe there was a bit of "thumb on the scales" thinking.

As for better options, yes again, it is opinion. Everything about my post is opinion.

 

On 4/19/2021 at 1:24 AM, 43M said:

I think you are failing to consider SEVERAL things.

Whether you like or trust Highsmith or not, he is 99% going to be start next to Watt in 2021.   They drafted him specifically to be Duprees replacement.   So the chances of us drafting OLB early are very slim.

CB is a major need, for sure...but we are picking 24th.    Typically, the top end CBs are off the board by then.   And the last time we forced a CB pick in the mid 20s, it didnt end well (Burns).   Not saying a decent one wont be there, but it will depend who is at the top of Tomberts board.

C is obviously a major need too, but I dont know that there is a center thats definitely going to be worth a first round pick.  Again, it will come down to who is ob top of their board.

As far as RB goes...Im not a fan of drafting RB early, but Ive warmed up to it for several reasons.   The Steelers have already stated that the running game needs to improve, and right now, we have ZILCH at RB.   With Ben returning, they need to get someone who can take the pressure off him.    Im not opposed to an OLineman....but a RB drafted at 24 has a better chance of making an immediate impact than a rookie LT or safety.

Your logic for Highsmith is the same that could be used for Snell, McFarland, and Samuels. The difference is that the Steelers have three guys on the roster at RB who they drafted. I don't think any of them are the next HOFer, but they have three RBs plus camp bodies. At OLB, you currently have Watt and Highsmith and then only a couple of camp bodies. Losing Ola and Bud is a huge hole. Maybe not 1st round need, but if they don't pick up another FA, OLB is definitely the bigger need, IMO.

I agree with your thought process on draft RB in round 1. It is not going to matter if they do not have better OL play. 

On 4/19/2021 at 1:24 AM, 43M said:

You're free to believe what you want, but based on the current makeup of the roster and the facts I'M seeing, I dont agree with your assessment at all...especially when it comes to RB and OLB.

Well, tomato and tomahto and all that. Hopefully, I've better supported my opinion with this follow up. I didn't meant to come across as obnoxious. Sometime I can't help it

[cjfollett]

On 4/19/2021 at 3:14 AM, Neumatic said:

The initial list is just a list of all the Top 100 prospects at each school that we attended the Pro Day of, there is zero ranking until he had a list of 10. The whole point of his post was to take away as much opinion as possible and base it on Tomlin and Colberts tendencies, not to eliminate or not eliminate players based on personal opinion.    @kurganwas pretty thorough in his explanations so I'm not sure where you think Etienne should have been eliminated, feel free to enlighten us. Also it's not even that he didn't consider the current roster, its that the players at those positions didn't meet the criteria. 

So, yes it seems I did misunderstand the ranking. I read it as Etienne was #2 overall, so it was obvious he would be the pick.

[Dcash4]

50 minutes ago, bigben07MVP said:

Yes but outside of Gibson they have JD Mckissic who is strictly a receiving back and...Peyton Barber (who are both on the last year of their contracts). They really don’t have that many holes..the defense is loaded and they spent good money on WR in free agency. They need a LT but in this scenario with Jenkins and Darrisaw off the board it might make sense to just add the best “offensive weapon” if they are high on him.

I have a really hard time in todays NFL wrapping my head around the idea that you would draft your #2/Committee back 19th overall. Barber and McKissic were perfectly fine as backups. You are right about their roster in total, I really like it. But you can always use more corners, or pass rushers, or receivers, or linebackers. Taking a RB would be pretty questionable. 

It's gonna be a weird draft, but that would be on the extremely weird side. Though, I would immediately be calling them regarding Antonio Gibson and his three rookie deal years remaining. 

[cjfollett]

On 4/19/2021 at 6:49 AM, kurgan said:

 

First, this is only an examination of pick #24.  The trends, the visits, the things that Tombert has looked for since they have been together.  I literally tried to take subjective feelings out until the last 10, and only at the end.

I never eliminated anyone based on my feelings.  The only gripe that may have been was the RAS score, and I have no data for that.  7 is pretty midrange, but we always look for better athletes anyway.

I didn't have any other RBs on the list due to them not being at their pro day.  No Oklahoma, no North Carolina, no Memphis, etc.  Again, not saying they won't be Day 2 selections, but they will not be the pick at #24.

Moreover, you talk about holes in the roster, and then say OLB at #24.  We have 2 starters there.  Are you going to draft Ojulari or Oweh to bench Highsmith and still have a hole at RB??  This is not the forum for this particular conversation, but that makes no sense at all.  In addition, at their pro days, the Edge coach wasn't even there.

I have a larger post to MOSteelers above, but as I mentioned, there is NO ONE after Watt and Highsmith currently on the roster except camp bodies. At RB there are currently three guys the Steelers drafted.

Also, as I mentioned a couple times now, I misunderstood how you ranked the players. I was like Etienne #2 - ridiculous! So, my apologies. 

Opinions are like butts, everyone has one! I don't have a feel for any particular player the Steelers might be interested in. I look at the roster and the players who have left and retired and so on, and then I look at prospects and positions who might be available at #24. Also, as I mentioned, I would not be surprised if RB is the pick. I would be disappointed tho. The Steelers O Line needs to improve their run blocking, probably more than any other facet of the entire team. I'm not sure any RB is going to improve the situation.

 

[bigben07MVP]

1 hour ago, cjfollett said:

Also, as I mentioned, I would not be surprised if RB is the pick. I would be disappointed tho. The Steelers O Line needs to improve their run blocking, probably more than any other facet of the entire team. I'm not sure any RB is going to improve the situation.

This is the part of the argument people who are against drafting a RB in the first I have an issue with. There’s 3 RBs worth drafting and they will all be long gone by #55. Sure, we could take a stab at yet another mid-round RB but we have done nothing but strike out at that position since we took Bell, so I have 0 faith in us finding a mid-round RB that can be a day-one starter. The draft is deep at O Line and we are much better historically at drafting that position group anyway. We found a guard who looks like a future all-pro already in the 4th round last year. We can address center and tackle in rounds 2-4. 

People claim it’s pointless to draft a RB if you have an O-Line who can’t open holes for that RB...I think the opposite in our situation. It’s pointless to have a good O-Line if you only have Snell who has 0 burst to get through a hole and McFarland who can’t find the hole as your RBs.

Edited April 20, 2021 by bigben07MVP

[MOSteelers56]

4 hours ago, cjfollett said:

I have a larger post to MOSteelers above, but as I mentioned, there is NO ONE after Watt and Highsmith currently on the roster except camp bodies. At RB there are currently three guys the Steelers drafted.

Also, as I mentioned a couple times now, I misunderstood how you ranked the players. I was like Etienne #2 - ridiculous! So, my apologies. 

Opinions are like butts, everyone has one! I don't have a feel for any particular player the Steelers might be interested in. I look at the roster and the players who have left and retired and so on, and then I look at prospects and positions who might be available at #24. Also, as I mentioned, I would not be surprised if RB is the pick. I would be disappointed tho. The Steelers O Line needs to improve their run blocking, probably more than any other facet of the entire team. I'm not sure any RB is going to improve the situation.

 

You’re telling me you aren’t comfortable with Cassius Marsh as our #3 OLB? 😆

[cjfollett]

6 hours ago, bigben07MVP said:

This is the part of the argument people who are against drafting a RB in the first I have an issue with. There’s 3 RBs worth drafting and they will all be long gone by #55. Sure, we could take a stab at yet another mid-round RB but we have done nothing but strike out at that position since we took Bell, so I have 0 faith in us finding a mid-round RB that can be a day-one starter. The draft is deep at O Line and we are much better historically at drafting that position group anyway. We found a guard who looks like a future all-pro already in the 4th round last year. We can address center and tackle in rounds 2-4. 

People claim it’s pointless to draft a RB if you have an O-Line who can’t open holes for that RB...I think the opposite in our situation. It’s pointless to have a good O-Line if you only have Snell who has 0 burst to get through a hole and McFarland who can’t find the hole as your RBs.

That's a worthy argument, but none of the top-tier RBs are the next Walter Payton or Emmit Smith, IMO. And the Steelers would need that type of RB is they do not fix the atrocious run blocking.

[bigben07MVP]

4 minutes ago, cjfollett said:

That's a worthy argument, but none of the top-tier RBs are the next Walter Payton or Emmit Smith, IMO. And the Steelers would need that type of RB is they do not fix the atrocious run blocking.

Who says we need Walter Payton or Emmit Smith? Would Dalvin Cook or Aaron Jones type work? Because that’s who Etienne is (IMO). Dalvin has been a beast behind some really really bad lines in Minnesota. 
 

If you haven’t familiarized yourself with Etienne yet I really encourage you to watch this. The very first run you can see this guy can completely change the offense even if the run blocking is only mildly improved. The 3rd run as well is a good example. 

[cjfollett]

12 hours ago, bigben07MVP said:

If you haven’t familiarized yourself with Etienne yet I really encourage you to watch this. The very first run you can see this guy can completely change the offense even if the run blocking is only mildly improved. The 3rd run as well is a good example. 

Thanks for sharing. I appreciate that Etienne is one of the best RB candidates in this year's draft. However, what I see from this and other videos is a team with superior athletes beating up various teams. In most cases, Etienne is not harrassed and gang tackled in the backfield. He has space to choose his hole, and he goes.

There's no question Etienne would be the starter on day 1, and I do believe he would improve the running game.

My reluctance to draft him in the 1st round is more about who the Steelers would pass on to draft a RB.

[Steeler Hitman]

@kurgan I just wanted to say nice job. You put a lot of time and effort in this and I appreciate it. I always enjoy reading your stuff. There were also several good comments made by many others in the forum that helped make this an excellent thread.  It is not always about agreeing or disagreeing, but for me more about the thought and content. We like who we like and believe what we believe. 

I thank you all for your comments, research and contributions as I am a fan of quality stuff like this.  I will spend some time a little later giving this post the due time and respect it deserves in responding. My hats off to you Kurgan and everyone else who contributed.