Sell me on a QB

[soulman]

1 hour ago, WindyCity said:

And in 2022 we are in the exact same position we are right now. A team held back by mediocre QB play, but not picking high enough to get a top QB without trading up.

 

But maybe there aren't as many teams in front of us seeking QBs.  Or maybe we finally do pry Wilson from Seattle.  Or maybe Dalton shocks us all and has a career year and a lesser QB pick we make this year surprises us.  We can can speculate 'til doomsday Windy.

Do you play any poker at all?

If so how often do you walk away a winner by pushing second or third best hands trying to "buy the hand" against others who are very good poker players too?  Eventually you may win a hand or two with a bluff but if you're smart you wait for just the right hand to do it.

I can't see where we're in that position this year.  We're looking to trade up and every other teams knows it.  The cost of doing it will be higher than average and the very best we can do is a #4 pick which probably means the 4th rated QB and you would press the bet?

(Shrug)  If they do well then they do.  For me it's gotten to the point where I barely have a horse in this race any longer at all.

[WindyCity]

30 minutes ago, soulman said:

But maybe there aren't as many teams in front of us seeking QBs.  Or maybe we finally do pry Wilson from Seattle.  Or maybe Dalton shocks us all and has a career year and a lesser QB pick we make this year surprises us.  We can can speculate 'til doomsday Windy.

Do you play any poker at all?

If so how often do you walk away a winner by pushing second or third best hands trying to "buy the hand" against others who are very good poker players too?  Eventually you may win a hand or two with a bluff but if you're smart you wait for just the right hand to do it.

I can't see where we're in that position this year.  We're looking to trade up and every other teams knows it.  The cost of doing it will be higher than average and the very best we can do is a #4 pick which probably means the 4th rated QB and you would press the bet?

(Shrug)  If they do well then they do.  For me it's gotten to the point where I barely have a horse in this race any longer at all.

Maybe, Maybe, Maybe, Maybe. Everything you suggest has much longer odds than one of the top QBs in this draft actually being good. I prefer to not bet on super long odds.

We are going to be just as desperate next year and picking in the exact same spot. 

We are in a terrible position to address QB this year, that really is not up for debate. But it doesn't really matter. You can be a in a terrible financial position, but you still got to eat.

Edited April 20, 2021 by WindyCity

[WindyCity]

1 hour ago, soulman said:

And again Windy you substitute personal opinion for fact without even weighing the possibilities and their likelihood of being true.

Just because all you'd be willing to give them is 2022 doesn't mean that's all GMcC and Teddy Bears are willing to do when it comes time to sit down with them and their agents over contract talks.  GMcC really hates firing people otherwise Phillips would've been long gone.

If GMcC is gonna allow them to potentially trade 1st round picks in 2021, 2022, and 2023 for a move up to the top 5 do you honestly believe he'll be looking to replace them anytime soon?

Well of course YOU do but logic and common sense would say differently.

Whatta ya' gonna do if they do trade up for your high upside favorite, start him in 2021, and we only win 4-5 games?  Or even 7 or 8?  From your posting that appears to be what you would do in order to have a shot at winning big with a rookie QB when the odds would say that isn't all that likely to happen.

Are you gonna be content to give it more time or will you keep campaigning for Pace's firing just as you have for the last couple of years?  How 'bout Nagy?  Should he be gone too?  I can't connect with your kind of thinking at all and I don't even wanna try.

If the rookie QB shows potential they are welcome to stay.

Your position that they will get 4 years is in fact... just opinion. Most teams do not give 4 years for a young QB to show themselves to be a franchise QB. They give more than 1, but not 4.

I get that you do not want to connect with my way of thinking. The same way I am uninterested in your never ending 8 win program.

[soulman]

4 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

Maybe, Maybe, Maybe, Maybe. Everything you suggest has much longer odds than one of the top QBs in this draft actually being good.

We are going to be just as desperate next year and picking in the exact same spot. 

We are in a terrible position to address QB this year, that really is not up for debate. But it doesn't really matter. You can be a in a terrible financial position, but you still got to buy eat.

Windy lemme make this as clear as I can.

I don't really care what Pace does.  In fact I was choosing to stay out of this entirely 'til other members actually reached out and suggested I post a bit.  So I have and in those posts I've given my own logic and reasoning for how I would continue to rebuild the Bears.

Your ideas are far different than mine and they usually are.  So I have no desire to keep running around in circles with you or anyone else for that a matter.  Your logic will always lead you back to the same one or two points you keep making.  We don't need to beat them to death.

[WindyCity]

I would have preferred someone other than Pace to be in charge of the draft this year.

But George kept him. I am not interested in punting on the 2021 season with Andy Dalton, to me that is a total waste of time. If the plan was to punt to 2022 with Dalton then they should have fired everyone and started the rebuild.

[dll2000]

2 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

If the rookie QB shows potential they are welcome to stay.

Your position that they will get 4 years is in fact... just opinion. Most teams do not give 4 years for a young QB to show themselves to be a franchise QB. They give more than 1, but not 4.

I get that you do not want to connect with my way of thinking. The same way I am uninterested in your never ending 8 win program.

But how do you get out of 8 - 10 wins per year?

I don't think you do it by trading 3 first round picks for 4th or 5th consensus QB who has to deal with a new coach in his 2nd year.   I think that is bad recipe.  

Ithink you tank and get the top QB via your draft position (and maybe a trade to get a little higher) and pair him with your new coach form year one.   

Or build a great team and throw a serviceable vet in there and hope the team carries him.   It's been done.   That will get you one SB only usually though.     

OR

You build best team you can and do what no one is doing.   You draft 3rd and 4th round QBs with upside every other year and implement a real plan and program to develop them (not what teams are doing now but more, much more).  Might be a lot more guys in existence that can play that never get the proper training or chance to do so.      

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

The premise of this thread is really challenging.  The issue is that I don't think there is anyone here who is particularly enthusiastic about ANY specific track or player to fix the Bears.  You guys argue (ok, debate) but nobody seems at all invested in their point of view.  I think the reason is our damned offseason: no matter what option you prefer at QB, you agree it's probably not going to work. 

If we load up on best talents for needs, and QB doesn't align with position or value, then, we're screwed because Dalton is a hard ceiling for this team unless the rest of the offense somehow becomes elite. If we move up for a QB, then we're limited since we have more needs now than when the season ended (CB need makes me crazy).  If we reach a bit on a QB in the second, we're missing out on using that pick on what should be a starter and then we have to wait and see if Kellen Davis develops.

The only way the team comes out of this as a contender is either

-with a huge move for a QB that coincides with the rest of the team-especialy on O-somehow working out into a good group. 

-We get really really lucky with a 2nd or 3rd round QB who turns out to be a draft day steal.

I'm sure this is boring to hear from me again, but I hate that our path to a good result relies on the unlikely.  

 

[dll2000]

Like 3 - 5 new guys a year get a real chance at playing QB in NFL.

That's it.  All other new guys are taking mostly 'mental reps' and sitting in meetings.   You don't get better at a sport that way.  Or it is a really inefficient way to do it.

 

 

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

Also I think we'll know soon how long Pace and Nagy are under contract for.  The only way their contracts are expiring is if they don't make any big moves involving future capital.  If we take like Felipe Franks in the 3rd and that's our only QB move it seems reasonably to think that Pace and Nagy are handcuffed and for some reason accepted that in return to show they can win in 2021 with the hand they're dealt, which would be weird from all perspectives but hey, Bears. 

[WindyCity]

RV, I agree we need to get tremendously lucky or take a tremendous risk, if we are going to land a QB and take the hard ceiling off of this team.

[WindyCity]

I think there are 3 realistic scenarios

1. Massive trade up and hope that player can take over for Dalton at some point in 2021.

2. Take a 2nd/3rd round QB and pray you hit a home run and that they can take over for Dalton at a minimum in 2022. AT a minimum get the development year over with.

3. Punt on 2021 and just start Dalton with no one developing.

[abstract_thought]

From Pace’s perspective:

Hope.

You can sell a fan base on a young QB. You can sell an owner on a young QB. It’s the same strategy the Bulls used multiple times: go into a planned rebuild to extend your job for a few years.

[WindyCity]

7 minutes ago, abstract_thought said:

From Pace’s perspective:

Hope.

You can sell a fan base on a young QB. You can sell an owner on a young QB. It’s the same strategy the Bulls used multiple times: go into a planned rebuild to extend your job for a few years.

Not truly competing with a rookie QB > Not truly competing with Andy Dalton

 

You are either competing or developing... Dalton is neither.

[abstract_thought]

4 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

Not truly competing with a rookie QB > Not truly competing with Andy Dalton

 

You are either competing or developing... Dalton is neither.

My personal view:

If you like a guy then draft him high and play him, invest in him. If you’re lukewarm then draft a developmental guy in rounds 3-5 and let him compete.

I don’t agree with forcing a QB just because Dalton is a bad option. You don’t fix one mistake with another.

[WindyCity]

1 minute ago, abstract_thought said:

My personal view:

If you like a guy then draft him high and play him, invest in him. If you’re lukewarm then draft a developmental guy in rounds 3-5 and let him compete.

I don’t agree with forcing a QB just because Dalton is a bad option. You don’t fix one mistake with another.

Agreed, the assumption with any trade up would be that it is for someone you really like.