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Trading Rodgers: A Down Year Discussion


MacReady

Which do you take?  

37 members have voted

  1. 1. Which do you take?

    • Option 1 (Garrett, two first round picks)
      9
    • Option 2 (Rodgers)
      28


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Just now, Pugger said:

How do you know for certain?  I think this defense, when healthy, is a lot better than you believe.  It isn't a top defense but I think it was good enough.  With Rodgers we don't need the '85 Bears.  I guess we'll never know now, will we?

Yes, we'll know.  I like you, Pugger, so I won't be mean, but in another thread (forget which one), I showed the Super Bowl winning scoring defenses over the past 17-ish years, and four have won without a top 10 scoring defense.  Two of those were the Giants, who turned into top scoring defenses (allowing 16.25 points in their runs), one was 11th, the other was the Saints, who only won thanks to their defense.  Peyton Manning had literally the best year in NFL history at QB in 2013.  Their defense gave up 22.8 points per game that year.  What happened?  They went up against the #1 scoring defense and lost 43-8.  We're currently giving up 20.2 points per game, and Rodgers wasn't having the best QB season in NFL history.

You don't win in this league without top defenses, and that goes double for the Packers and Rodgers.  The average score for NFL games is 23 points a game.  That's AVERAGE for all teams.  Rodgers has started 16 playoff games, and he's been held under 23 points in 7 of them, including twice in his Super Bowl year. 

Without defense, we're never winning a Super Bowl again.  Period. 

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Just now, incognito_man said:

Only way you do it though is if you have a cheap, really good option for at least a few years. Like if Hundley had balled last year or something. Or we get a great rookie next year.

The only advantage is cheap + good (like Russell Wilson for 4 years).

I think you're more likely to win a Super Bowl in today's NFL by getting lucky with a QB, then moving from QB to QB while making sure you have a top defense.  I count 20 quarterbacks in the NFL right now that could win a Super Bowl with the #1 scoring defense. 

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7 minutes ago, HorizontoZenith said:

I think you're more likely to win a Super Bowl in today's NFL by getting lucky with a QB, then moving from QB to QB while making sure you have a top defense.  I count 20 quarterbacks in the NFL right now that could win a Super Bowl with the #1 scoring defense. 

I don't think so. You need both. There aren't 20 QBs that can string together 3 or 4 good enough games against good teams. Plus, only those with postseason experience have a likelihood of significant postseason success.

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Just now, incognito_man said:

I don't think so. You need both. There aren't 20 QBs that can string together 3 or 4 good enough games against good teams. Plus, only those with postseason experience have a likelihood of significant postseason success.

I'll give you 20.  I definitely agree about playoff experience, so that might hurt my chances because five of them haven't started a playoff game (Tannehill, Mariota, Siemian, Wentz, Carr). 

Brady, Prescott, Wilson, Manning, Roethlisberger, Bradford, Cousins, Newton, Ryan, Stafford, Flacco, Rivers, Palmer, Smith, Brees, Luck.

So that's 16, plus five more once they get through their first playoffs experience.  Before anybody argues Bradford, Bradford is absolutely better now than Peyton Manning was in 2015, or the year he won. 

Edit: Since Rodgers doesn't count this year, that's over half the starting quarterbacks in the NFL with the potential.  Five more once those five get some playoff experience. 

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9 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

Bradford actually doesn't have any postseason experience either. I'd also remove current Eli and Flacco and Luck (injury too). Do 12 seems about right.

Yeah I don't know if everyone has seen Flacco this year but he is not winning the superbowl no matter how good his defense is. Same goes for Eli

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Just now, incognito_man said:

Bradford actually doesn't have any postseason experience either. I'd also remove current Eli and Flacco and Luck (injury too). Do 12 seems about right.

Yeah, but this hypothetical is for next year.  So remove Bradford, but keep Eli, Flacco and Luck.  Flacco doesn't look any less bad now than he has his whole career assuming he turns the TD/INT ratio around this year, and I think he will.  Eli has an 89 QB rating right now with an offense that is bad in every sense of the word.  He's still managing above average NFL numbers, and he just beat the Broncos without his 1, 2 and 3 receivers.  He's not being taken off that list.  I'll give you Flacco and Bradford, but I'm keeping Eli and Luck.  So that's 14 quarterbacks capable of winning a Super Bowl. 

What's more likely over the next two years, getting this current defense to being a top 10 scoring defense with keeping Rodgers, or getting this defense to a top 5 scoring defense, making the playoffs with a rookie QB or Hundley and winning with a top 5 scoring defense the year after?  Probably the one where we keep Rodgers, but I still like what this team would look like after adding two blue chip defensive players.  Not enough to trade Rodgers, but enough to start thinking about it in a year or two or three. 

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55 minutes ago, HorizontoZenith said:

Yeah, but this hypothetical is for next year.  So remove Bradford, but keep Eli, Flacco and Luck.  Flacco doesn't look any less bad now than he has his whole career assuming he turns the TD/INT ratio around this year, and I think he will.  Eli has an 89 QB rating right now with an offense that is bad in every sense of the word.  He's still managing above average NFL numbers, and he just beat the Broncos without his 1, 2 and 3 receivers.  He's not being taken off that list.  I'll give you Flacco and Bradford, but I'm keeping Eli and Luck.  So that's 14 quarterbacks capable of winning a Super Bowl. 

What's more likely over the next two years, getting this current defense to being a top 10 scoring defense with keeping Rodgers, or getting this defense to a top 5 scoring defense, making the playoffs with a rookie QB or Hundley and winning with a top 5 scoring defense the year after?  Probably the one where we keep Rodgers, but I still like what this team would look like after adding two blue chip defensive players.  Not enough to trade Rodgers, but enough to start thinking about it in a year or two or three. 

I'm ok with this.

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4 hours ago, HorizontoZenith said:

Doesn't have to be a former #1 overall pick or even a top 5 pick.  Just a blue chip defensive player and two first round picks, one of which being a top 10.  Joey Bosa and two firsts from the Chargers.  Jalen Ramsey and two first round picks from the Jaguars as examples.  

Those are horrible examples lol. It's subtraction by addition if you think Joey bosa and or jalen ramsey plus 2 first round picks will help this team more than rodgers. What are ya smoking my dude.

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15 minutes ago, Gopackgonerd said:

Those are horrible examples lol. It's subtraction by addition if you think Joey bosa and or jalen ramsey plus 2 first round picks will help this team more than rodgers. What are ya smoking my dude.

the miss part of your equation is the delta from Rodgers to his replacement. 

It's also the most key part.

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