Rookie watch thread.

[J-ALL-DAY]

25 minutes ago, Tyronnosaurus said:

He’s blossoming by the game. Doing it all so beautifully.

 

-finishing at the rim

-shooting well from FT, 3, mid range

-setting up teammates

-scoring efficiently in the clutch

 

And you were ready to give up on him. Smh…… 

[Utley]

1 hour ago, tonyto36 said:

PER is a usage based stat.  Of course Simmons trumps him.  He plays a completely different role than Tatum.  If Tatum were (again) on a team like the Sixers or Kings where he was the #1 or #2 option every night and not playing with two legitimate centers (in the starting lineup alone!) his rebounding, points and assist numbers would go up (and so would his PER).  Instead he is on the best team in the East and not given those same opportunities.   If he were in this same role and had poor effiicency numbers that didn't compensate would be one thing, but he has historic numbers.

You do realize that RB% and total rebounds both go down when competing against more big men right?  You don't have to have a big man average 20 rebounds a game to have it effect.  I'll dumb this down for you.  Lets say you clone Demarcus Cousins and have a starting 5 of five Cousins.  Because of this Cousins will have a lower total rebound and rebound % than if it were him and four Jeff Teagues.   Playing next to TWO centers in the starting lineup absolutely lowers Tatum's production rebounding the ball.  Where as Simmons plays next to one center who doesn't even play all the games.  Tell me, if you needed a rebound to seal an NBA finals who would you take?  Horford + Baynes (not Brown), or would you take Amir freaking Johnson?  The answer is obvious.   And this also does nothing to address how I've talked about pace.  I've already conceded I think Simmons is a better rebounder - right now he's two years older, bigger and stronger and a little longer, but going by bulk rebounds or TRB% is quite frankly, inaccurate and stupid.  Tatum is absolutely in that same ball park as Simmons.

Just going to address these two because the other ones are pointless to address, since you're ignoring the numbers for the sake of narrative.

You don't know what PER is if you think having a high usage is beneficial. That's unsurprising given how this discussion has gone.

You do know the Sixers most common lineup has Simmons playing next to Embiid, Saric and Covington? You're really doing a great job of cherrypicking stats and creating a narrative to try and win the argument. 

[11sanchez11]

Assuming the 1st team is Simmons, Don Mitchell, Tatum, Kuzma, and Lauri, who is the 2nd team?

Some mix of DSJ, Lonzo, John Collins, Josh Jackson, OG, Dillon Brooks, and Jordan Bell. 

Probably Lonzo, DSJ, OG, Dillon, and John Collins

[seminoles1]

Bam and Bogdan over both Brooks and Jackson.

[YogiBiz]

10 hours ago, tonyto36 said:

Rip Hamilton is a borderline HOFer.  Ray Allen on the Celtics was assisted at a high clip as well.  I'm okay with Tatum playing within the flow of the offense - and again goes to how I stated his efficiency would definitely go down but he'd be pushing 25 PPG on other teams.   What is Tatum's assisted% on 2 pointers and what is your source?  It's not like we haven't seen Tatum demonstrate he can create off the dribble.

You do understand our argument is about Tatum vs Simmons, don't you? So I am reading this and am comprehending that you would take a Rip Hamilton over a Magic Johnson-Lite (because outside of FT shooting the Simmons is having an alarmingly similar rookie campaign to Magic's). 

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Personal fouls per game:  Tatum (2.1), Simmons (2.9).  How does Tatum foul quite a bit more than Simmons???  I would take BPM over win shares, but again there are flukes.  Last year in the playoffs had IT as better than Bradley.   I never said Simmons was bad, just not as good as people were implying that he was Kawhi - and Tatum is much much much better than he was being given credit for.

Tatum has 50 Shooting fouls on the season to Simmons 41 Shooting Fouls (45 if you count his Blocking fouls as well, Tatum has no blocking fouls). The only reason Simmons averages more fouls per game than Tatum is the fact that Tatum  Another thing, I am not saying, nor have I ever said Tatum is a bad defender. I've also never implied Simmons is a  Kawhi level defender; however, from eye test, to the numbers that back it up, Simmons is a better defender. 

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PER is a usage based stat.  Of course Simmons trumps him.  He plays a completely different role than Tatum.  If Tatum were (again) on a team like the Sixers or Kings where he was the #1 or #2 option every night and not playing with two legitimate centers (in the starting lineup alone!) his rebounding, points and assist numbers would go up (and so would his PER).  Instead he is on the best team in the East and not given those same opportunities.   If he were in this same role and had poor effiicency numbers that didn't compensate would be one thing, but he has historic numbers.

PER is a usage stat? I was always under the assumption that the stat was standardized to create a league median? I could be wrong though, but I thought it took the positive outcomes a player produced subtracted by negative outcomes a player produces, then creates a per minute stat to tell you how a player is doing? Right? 

Also if Tatum's USG increased so would the negative warts that appear in his game. Teams would be focusing all over their attention on him, not the 5 other people that collect more shots than him. Tatum 

Quote

Can we stop pretending SImmons is some world beater on offense?  He's averaging 2.8 points more per game than Tatum while averaging over four more attempts per game.  And that says nothing for his usage and time he gets going to the rim that Tatum doesn't get.   Simmons in half the games is the #1 option and can do what he wants.  There are nights Tatum only gets 6 shots.  Because he plays on a better team.  And again, yes I understand that is also a benefit for Tatum but again it's not like he hasn't flourished and shown he is incapable of handling a bigger load.  And saying Tatum is relying on others for nearly all of his offense or can't create offensively is just flat out, unarguably wrong.  His entire upside is his ability to create offense.

I didn't say he couldn't. I said, Tatum is relying on others for nearly all of his offense. Nothing that you have said disproves this, where as I have given you proof that he does. 

Come on man you're putting words into my argument to make yourself feel right. Mind you I have never boasted about being right or said this is why he is definitely. I expressed my opinion on why I feel it's redonkulous to choose Jayson Tatum over Ben Simmons (or in other words who is the better player, and easier to build around, and ultimately amongst rookies who deserves to be ROY), which I am pretty sure you are the only fanbase that believes that would happily take Tatum over Simmons. You can find scorers everywhere. 

Here is a list of PG's 6'8" or taller in NBA HISTORY (who were any good): 

Magic Johnson

LeBron James

Giannis Antetokounmpo 

Ben Simmons

 

LET'S BREAK IT DOWN EVEN DEEPER:

List of Players in NBA history that averaged at least 15PPG 8RPG 7APG as a Rookie:

Oscar Robertson

Ben Simmons

Thasit. BTW without a jumper, Simmons is shooting almost 5 percentage points more than The Big O did in his rookie year.  But I digress. 

I personally felt like this should've been enough, but you are mighty arrogant. 

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I assume you mean on the Sixers.  All eyes are not equal, though I concede you're assumedly not a Sixers fan and less biased than me.  Tatum isn't as big or strong as Simmons [though he has the frame to grow], so could he not be as successful because of the wear and tear? Absolutely.  But it's not because of his skillset or lake thereof where he destroys Simmons on offense.

I meant on a team other than Boston, sorry for lack of proofreading ! The argument I was making was that Simmons and Tatum's difference on offense is negligible at best. They are cut from different clothes but both can put the ball in the basket. Simmons then trumps Tatum in so many other areas, that is why he going to be ROY. I have said his situation is great, but I do not believe Tatum would remotely be able replicate the efficiency he is putting up now.

 Think about it, he's asked to play 8th fiddle

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You do realize that RB% and total rebounds both go down when competing against more big men right?  You don't have to have a big man average 20 rebounds a game to have it effect.  I'll dumb this down for you.  Lets say you clone Demarcus Cousins and have a starting 5 of five Cousins.  Because of this Cousins will have a lower total rebound and rebound % than if it were him and four Jeff Teagues.   Playing next to TWO centers in the starting lineup absolutely lowers Tatum's production rebounding the ball.  Where as Simmons plays next to one center who doesn't even play all the games.  Tell me, if you needed a rebound to seal an NBA finals who would you take?  Horford + Baynes (not Brown), or would you take Amir freaking Johnson?  The answer is obvious.   And this also does nothing to address how I've talked about pace.  I've already conceded I think Simmons is a better rebounder - right now he's two years older, bigger and stronger and a little longer, but going by bulk rebounds or TRB% is quite frankly, inaccurate and stupid.  Tatum is absolutely in that same ball park as Simmons.

TFW Amir Johnson had higher Per36 numbers than Horford's last year (when they played together AJ:8.2 to AH:7.6, and is currently obliterating him in said regard this season), and he had a higer ORB% and TRB% last year and this year? Its okay the answer is still obvious to me.

I have also followed Al Horford's career closely, being a Dominican American (it's just a thing we do, we follow our own religiously in sports, national pride and all that) who has lived in Atlanta for over a decade. It pains me to do it, but I even league pass a lot of Boston games to see my mans play. So I do have a pretty positive opinion on Tatum, but again I wouldn't take him over Simmons.

BTW, while Tatum & Simmons were in college (both played the 4 in college IIRC) Simmons out-rebounded Tatum by 4.5 RPG. 

Look @tonyto36 if you are a good rebounder, it doesn't matter who you are playing next to, you're going to go get the basketball.

Lol Aaron Baynes. 

No I was saying; it was funny that only other person, whom follows the NBA closely, that agrees with your take on Tatum Vs Simmons, is another Celtics' fan. Not attempting to be rude, just attempting to show that the only person that agrees with you is equally biased about the Boston Celtics, and their players. 

[Tyronnosaurus]

On 1/21/2018 at 12:01 PM, J-ALL-DAY said:

And you were ready to give up on him. Smh…… 

Reverse psychology worked.

[48 1/2ers]

On 1/21/2018 at 10:22 AM, 11sanchez11 said:

Assuming the 1st team is Simmons, Don Mitchell, Tatum, Kuzma, and Lauri, who is the 2nd team?

Some mix of DSJ, Lonzo, John Collins, Josh Jackson, OG, Dillon Brooks, and Jordan Bell. 

Probably Lonzo, DSJ, OG, Dillon, and John Collins

Kennard and Bogdonovic are creeping up too. Jordan Bell is in quite the rut and could get leapfrogged on the depth chart this 2nd half of the season. Jarrett Allen is nice in Brooklyn too.  

[resilient part 2]

On ‎1‎/‎19‎/‎2018 at 7:07 PM, YogiBiz said:

Yes Tatum is efficient, but he is assisted on 53.3% of his 2PT FGs. Oh yeah, he is also assisted on a startling 93.8% of his 3PT FGs. He is proficient in letting other set him up, so was Rip Hamilton. Where as Simmons is used as his teams PG 72% of the time he's on the floor, and the percentage of his 2PT FGs that are assisted is only 33%.

Also when considering advanced defensive metrics I like to look DBPM over DWS, because WS are more based on a team as a whole whereas BPM is more individual based. Simmons absolutely dominates Tatum. BTW Tatum doesn't even have that big of an advantage in DWS. Also Tatum fouls quite a bit more than Simmons even though the latter plays 7 more minutes per game. 

Also looking at PER (not the best stat in the world, but lets look at it because Tatum is obviously the more efficient player right?) Simmons trumps Tatum 17.4 to 16.3. 

Here is another thought. As a defender, I know Ben Simmons can only make shots from 10 Feet and in, but it doesn't matter cause he is going to score regardless. Tatum is relying on others for nearly all of his offense. 

Tatum would be playing a lot worse on Boston, and that is with an unbiased eye test. 

Also calling Al Horford (I am assuming) and Jaylen Brown (I am assuming again because these are the only two out-rebounding Tatum on your team in terms of Totals, PG, and TRB%; Brown is barely doing any of those btw) actual big men is laughable. Whoops never mind you meant Mr. Small Ball Four Marcus Morris, and Power Forward forced to center Al Horford didn't you. Oh BTW, your "true" big man Al Horford, is only out-rebounding Simmons by .6 RPG, and .6% TRB%. Horford is a four being forced to play center; it works because he is so smart defensively, but the notion is true none the less. 

Tatum is not in the same arena as Simmons when it comes to rebounding chops. 

 

EDIT/SIDE NOTE: I also like how the only people liking @tonyto36's, and @resilient part 2's posts are each other. 

I can't believe you made a statistical comparison of a PG vs SF and then claimed Tatum gets assisted on whatever % of his FG makes. I am sorry, I am not trying to be rude, but that is such an bad comparison. Simmons has the ball in his hand as a pg, what 99% of his possessions while Tatum is often relegated to watching from the corner and waiting for his team to run him some plays. Of course Tatum and most wing players "get assisted" on many of their FGs, especially from 3. For Tatum not to get assisted on a  3, he basically would have to take it coast to coast and pull up a shot. 

Comparing Tatum to RIP Hamilton is also quite off. Tatum already does so many other things well. 

Tatum is in a rare situation of being a talented rookie on a very high level team, unlike other rookies who have the freedom of taking and pulling all kind of shots.

Remember this rookie who averaged 16.7 with 6.3 RBs and 6.2 asts? Yes Michael Carter Williams. Those numbers look remarkable similar to Simmons. 

Bottom line for me I don't rely or use stats as an overwhelming source for "proof" in a argument between players. Situations are so different at times that the only thing I trust is my "eye test" even if it is less-scientific.

I was fortunate enough to play college basketball for 4 years. I was a nothing special combo guard and played 4 years at a D2 school. But even then I could tell how valuable a good situation was. I was reminded of this again when my son played a for solid D 1 team as a 4 year starter. Although starting and playing well for his first 3 years, his Stats/numbers were pretty good but not overwhelming. It was only when his shoot first scoring PG teammate graduated that he was moved from combo role to PG that his career "blew up" By his senior year his numbers and efficiency went sky high. He managed to be in the first 1 % of 3 point shooters in D1. Something I was very proud of. I knew he could do it, but many were surprised. He surprised people again when he went on professionally and became the POY in England. He eventually played in Spain and then Canada.  

Along the way from my life and watching my son, I learned a lot about scouting and how coaches evaluate in basketball.

The things I see Tatum doing are all from my eye test. 

Shoots with proper technique 

Shoots with good range.

Can shot well off the dribble

Shoots with great confidence.

Can use his shooting with "rip moves" and jabs to set up drives well.

Has great overall footwork

Has very good first step.

Changes direction very well.

Dribbles quite well.

Uses his dribble and foot speed to cross up defenders.

Uses both hands well.

Finishes with good body control around rim.

Has long athletic body and is explosive when he needs to be, but can still play under control.

Can shoot turnaround over left and right shoulders. 

The "moment" doesn't scare him. (as evident by how well he shoots/scores/plays in the 4th quarter)

Can defend multiple positions

Good instincts off the ball on defense (rotations steal etc)

doesn't shy from contact.

Most of Tatum's weakness can be attributed to Tatum being skinny and only 19 years old. Other than that, his game is amazingly well balanced and versatile for a 19 year old in the NBA. I have no doubt that when his body matures with age and training, and Brad Stevens finds a way to move him up from 7th  on his team in shot attempts per game, Tatum will reach amazing levels. But as of now his role as a rookie on a high level team (good part due to his play) is quite amazing that he even has the numbers he currently has. Not that it matters for me.

[YogiBiz]

At the end of the day everything you said was fine and dandy, but nothing you have said has convinced me that Tatum deserves to win ROY over Simmons. 

[resilient part 2]

44 minutes ago, YogiBiz said:

At the end of the day everything you said was fine and dandy, but nothing you have said has convinced me that Tatum deserves to win ROY over Simmons. 

Never ever said he deserves to win ROY over Simmons, but the idea that it definitely isn't close as you and many others have said I strongly disagree with as well as disagreeing with the fact that people say Simmons is better than Tatum and it is quote not even close quote.

[resilient part 2]

On a side note I don't think it's any coincidence that the game that Marcus Smart and Al Horford Miss Tatum goes for a season-high in shot attempts. It is pretty fair to say Tatum's numbers would be so much higher if he played on most other teams especially Lottery level teams. But again I have never been about the numbers

[MookieMonstah]

I'm just happy to have Tatum. I don't think Simmons would be as successful on this Boston team as he is in Philly, and I don't think Tatum would be as successful on Philly as he would be here.

 

In the end, I think Simmons will always put up the better numbers but I don't see any reason Tatum can't have as good of a career, if not better, than Simmons does. Especially if Simmons never develops a jumper (likely scenario). 

[Darkness]

Simmons would be an even better fit on the Celtics. He’s one of the biggest mismatches in basketball, and would be surrounded by great shooters playing under a great coach in Stevens who would maximize his potential.

Irving

Brown

Hayward

Simmons

Horford

That team is definitely better then the Celtics with Tatum 

[MookieMonstah]

1 hour ago, Darkness said:

Simmons would be an even better fit on the Celtics. He’s one of the biggest mismatches in basketball, and would be surrounded by great shooters playing under a great coach in Stevens who would maximize his potential.

Irving

Brown

Hayward

Simmons

Horford

That team is definitely better then the Celtics with Tatum 

Simmons is a PG who needs the ball in his hands to be successful, I agree he'd be better aided surrounded by shooters but he just takes the ball out of Irving/Haywards hands a lot which is not ideal. I wouldn't trade Tatum for Simmons with the current make up of our team, no way. Now if we didn't have Kyrie, that obviously makes sense.

[resilient part 2]

1 hour ago, Darkness said:

Simmons would be an even better fit on the Celtics. He’s one of the biggest mismatches in basketball, and would be surrounded by great shooters playing under a great coach in Stevens who would maximize his potential.

Irving

Brown

Hayward

Simmons

Horford

That team is definitely better then the Celtics with Tatum 

Can we agree that for Simmons to be his most effective, he needs the ball in his hands and can't play off the ball? Assuming that's a yes, NO WAY in hell does Kyrie want be off the ball, even part time after leaving Lebron and Cleveland. He wants to be a full-time PG/Decision maker. Never happens under Simmons.