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2021 Mexico City Zapatas - 2nd Draft Season


Techbert

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Camp Depth Chart

QB Trevor Lawrence JAX, Mitchell Trubisky BUF, Case Cookus Den
RB James Robinson JAX, Matt Breida BUF, Eno Benjamin AZ, JaMycal Hasty SF, Mike Warren WAS, Nathan Cottrell JAX, Dedrick Mills DET
WR Tee Higgins CIN, Cordarrelle Patterson ATL, Isaiah Wright WAS, Omar Bayless CAR, Antonio Golden-Gandy WAS, Tamorrian Terry SEA
WR Elijah Moore NYJ, Emmanuel Sanders BUF, Trishton Jackson LAR
WR John Brown LV, John Ross NYG, Chris Conley HOU, Josh Imatorbhebhe JAX, Blake Proehl MIN
TE Lee Smith ATL, Jared Pinkney TEN, Thaddeus Moss CIN, Sammis Reyes WAS, Briley Moore TEN, Jack Stoll PHI
LOT Jedrick Wills CLE, Stone Forsythe SEA
OG Kyle Long KC, Trey Smith KC, Jared Hocker SEA
C Lloyd Cushenberry DEN, Luke Juriga PHI, Cohl Cabral HOU, Harry Crider PHI
OG Josh Jones AZ, Forrest Lamp BUF, Chandon Herring TEN
OT Julie'n Davenport IND, Terence Steele DAL, Calvin Throckmorton NO, Carson Green HOU

DE   Derek Rivers HOU, Jason Strowbridge MIA
DT   Neville Gallimore DAL, James Lynch MIN, Kobe Smith TB, Darius Stills LV
DT   Al Woods SEA, Bobby Brown LAR, Marvin Wilson CLE
RDE  Trey Hendrickson CIN, Elerson Smith NYG, Bryce Huff NYJ, Tyshun Render MIA
LB  Christian Kirksey Hou, Joe Bachie PHI, Dylan Moses JAX
LB  Keanu Neal DAL, Jabril Cox DAL, Charles Snowden CHI, Jordan Mack CAR
CB Zavier Rhodes IND, Ifeatu Melifonwu DET
NB Mackensie Alexander MIN, Stanford Samuels GB
FS Damontae Kazee DAL, Tyree Gillespie LV, Myles Dorn MIN, Chris Miller AZ, Tyler Coyle DAL, Zayne Anderson KC
SS Jared Mayden SF, Jovante Moffatt CLE, James Wiggins AZ, Ar'darius Washington BAL, Christian Uphoff GB
CB Ahkello Witherspoon SEA, Desmond King HOU, Robert Rochell LAR

PK Tyler Bass BUF, Brandon Wright LAR, Tucker McCann TEN
James Smith TEN, Corliss Waitman PIT
DS Ross Matiscik JAX, Liam McCullough LV

Edited by Techbert
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  • 3 months later...

Running Tally of Cutdown Survivors. (People cut IRL but I am not cutting yet in parentheses. Rooks are bold.)

QB Trevor Lawrence JAX, Mitchell Trubisky BUF
RB James Robinson JAX, Matt Breida BUF, Eno Benjamin AZ, JaMycal Hasty SF
WR Tee Higgins CIN, Cordarrelle Patterson ATL
WR Elijah Moore NYJ, Emmanuel Sanders BUF
WR Chris Conley HOU,
TE Lee Smith ATL, Sammis Reyes WAS, Jack Stoll PHI
LOT Jedrick Wills CLE, Stone Forsythe SEA
OG Trey Smith KC
C Lloyd Cushenberry DEN
OG Josh Jones AZ
OT Julie'n Davenport IND, Terence Steele DAL, Calvin Throckmorton NO

DE   Bryce Huff NYJ
DT   Neville Gallimore DAL, James Lynch MIN
DT   Al Woods SEA, Bobby Brown LAR
RDE  Trey Hendrickson CIN, Elerson Smith NYG
LB  Christian Kirksey Hou
LB  Keanu Neal DAL, Jabril Cox DAL
CB Zavier Rhodes IND, Ifeatu Melifonwu DET
NB Mackensie Alexander MIN
FS Damontae Kazee DAL, Tyree Gillespie LV
SS Ar'darius Washington BAL
CB Desmond King HOU, Robert Rochell LAR

PK Tyler Bass BUF
(James Smith TEN)
DS Ross Matiscik JAX

 

INJ Mike Warren DET, John Ross NYG, Josh Imatorbhebhe JAX, Blake Proehl MIN, Briley Moore TEN, Kyle Long KC,  Chandon Herring TEN

Darius Stills LV, Dylan Moses JAX, Tucker McCann TEN

Edited by Techbert
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  • 4 weeks later...
  • 3 months later...

2022 Offense

I've built a model of team performance for 2022. Offense was remarkably easy. Very little adjustment of the numbers. Some details below.

Yards Passing 3600 yds on 610 attempts. 18th in league

Yards Rushing 2145 yds on 488 rushes. 9th in league

Comment: too many turnovers.

Basically, imagine if I had the Miami passing game with the New England rushing game, but Jacksonville's turnovers.

 

Numbers are Games/Games Started. Bold is 1st and 2nd year players

Quarterback:
Trevor Lawrence 17/17 virtually all the snaps
Mitch Trubisky 6/0

Running Backs:
James Robinson 14/13 Only things that could stop him are COVID and Urban, not in that order
Cord Patterson 16/13 Wish I could say I saw it coming when I signed him
Matt Breida 9/0
Eno Benjamin 9/0
JaMycal Hasty 11/0 Had some catches
Nathan Cottrell 4/0 Special teamer

Wide Receivers:
Tee Higgins 14/14 A 1000 yard receiver
Emmanuel Sander 14/13
Elijah Moore 11/6 Nagging injuries after a lights-out camp
Chris Conley 16/10
Antonio Gandy-Golden 4/0 Special teams

Tight End:
Lee Smith 16/6
Jack Stoll 16/5
Sammis Reyes 11/1 Super athletic but learning to play
Jared Pinkney 2/1

OL:
Jedrick Wills 13/13 Good player but had nagging injuries
Terence Steele 16/13 Hey! He is NFL quality RT. If you judge him by his rookie season, come at me with steele!
Julie'n Davenport 9/4 Didn't need him, as it turned out
Stone Forsythe 10/0 Developmental late-round pick

Trey Smith 17/17 My 4th rounder. League 6th rounder. I win.
Josh Jones 17/12 Swing between ot and og, both for me and IRL. Not as good as I anticipated but still young
Calvin Throckmorton 17/14 Worst player on a good line IRL like many of these names

Lloyd Cushenberry 16/16 Can't get rid of him. Kinda grows on ya, like most of these names
 

The OL I think neither helped nor hurt the run or pass game, compared to league average. The tight ends were there to block, and were good at that. The receivers and running backs were better than Jax's, and I buffed my pass yardage for them.  Trevor did the best he could with Urban and with the talent level around him

 

Edited by Techbert
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Offensive draft Summary:

2020 Draftees:
Jedrick Wills played injured and will be good moving forwards. Josh Jones better continue to develop. Lloyd Cushenberry seems to have settled in. Tee Higgins is a plus receiver. Antonio Gandy-Golden is a bust unless he puts it together. Eno Benjamin is nothing special. Hunter Bryant is not on the team.

2020 UDFA:
James Robinson is a star. JaMycal Hasty may make next year's team. Nathan Cottrell will get into camp. Same with Jared Pinkney. Will consider offering a slot for a receiver or two injured. Terence Steele is real, at least on the right side. New Orleans likes Calvin Throckmorton. Not a bad UDFA class!

2021 Draftees:
Content with Trevor Lawrence. Elijah Moore will be as good as his ability to avoid injury allows. Trey Smith is a feather in my cap. Stone Forsythe is developmental and as far as I can tell may be on track. I will know more next year. Briley Moore te was injured. Tamorrean Terry will never be on the team.

2021 UDFA:
Jack Stoll and Sammis Reyes made the team and played and I have plans for both. May have camp invites for a few others who were injured and/or did not make this year's team.

2022 FA targets: No long term FA signees expected, again. Will resign Tru, Cord, Conley, and Lee Smith if their current teams resign. Will try to get value in 1 year deals for the above positions for any not resigned and a RB and WR and IOL. If I spend any money, it will probably be a WR.

2022 Draft targets: 1 or 2 WR 1 RB 1 TE, 1 OT 1 C/G That's what I want, but do not expect this many offensive draftees this year.

Edited by Techbert
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2022 Defense

Too many holes on defense for a quantitative model of performance. An offense can mask a bad offensive lineman by playcall, for example. A defense has opponent playcall designed to unmask weaknesses, and we were shy at least 1 DE, 1 DT, 1 LB, 1 CB, and 1 S. At least. So... we bad on defense.

It takes longer for young players to develop on defense compared to offense. I am not panicking. I just drafted a lot of prime draftees on offense to keep Trevor from being killed. Now it is the defense's turn.

Numbers are Games/Games Started. Bold is 1st and 2nd year players. Italics is long term veterans signees.

Defensive End:
Trey Hendrickson 16/14 My one and only long term free agent was worth the crusty money.
Bryce Huff 9/7 Fought injuries. NYJ may replace him in this draft, and I KNOW I will. I like him as a reserve.
Elerson Smith 8/0. Developmental project who fought injuries. I like him with a hand in the dirt, but the NYG did not ask me.
Derek Rivers 5/1 Injured most of the year.

Defensive Tackle:
Al Woods 16/16 Thank you for your service.
James Lynch 13/1 We will see what a new coaching staff thinks of him.
Neville Gallimore 5/4 Played strong when finally back from injured reserve.
Bobby Brown 10/0 Developmental athlete who I wish had barked louder as a rookie.
Marvin Wilson 1/0 Gave the Eagles something to think about the last game of the season.

Linebacker:
Christian Kirksey 13/12 Thank you for your service.
Keanu Neal 14/5 Split time at safety for the Zaps but still not enough!
Joe Bachie 9/2 Looked promising before being injured.
Jabril Cox 7/0 Fought injuries and a lot of talent at his position.
Charles Snowden 2/0 Came back from serious injury and developmental anyway.

Cornerback:
Desmond King 16/12 Split time at safety for the Zaps but still not enough!
Xavier Rhodes 13/13 Thank you for your service
Mackensie Alexander 16/5 One of the few players that benefited from Mike Zimmer
Robert Rochell 11/5 Developed faster than I expected.
Ifeatu Melifonwu 7/4 Developed nicely and then battled injuries.

Safety:
Demontae Kazee 17/15 Thank you for your service
Tyree Gillespie 11/0 Special teamer. I like young safeties on special teams working on angles.
Myles Dorn 8/0 Same
Jovante Moffatt 5/0 Same
Jared Mayden 4/0 Same
Zayne Anderson 4/0 Same
Ar'darius Washington 3/0 Same
James Wiggins 3/0 Same
Tyler Coyle 2/0 Guess what? The same.

Edited by Techbert
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Defensive draft Summary:

2020 Draftees:
Bryce Huff is a guy I drafted late and the league made an UDFA and he started for the Jets this last year when he was healthy, so I take that as a win. Neville Gallimore is a starter. James Lynch was a rotational defensive lineman for Mike Zimmer, which is about where I pegged him, but it will be interesting to see if he does better or worse with a sane coach next year. Jason Strowbridge was a bust. Stanford Samuel was a late pick for me, and an UDFA for the league and he is gone.

2020 UDFA:
Joe Bachie is interesting. Myles Dorn, Jovante Moffatt, and Jared Mayden are all developmental safeties playing special teams. None of the safeties are more than injury roster fill-ins right now.

2021 Draftees:
Elerson Smith was held back by injuries. Next year will be key. Bobby Brown better step up. I don't care how talented the players ahead of him are. Both are phenomenal athletes. Jabril Cox is on track. That Charles Snowden saw the field at all last year was pretty amazing. I consider Ifeatu Melifonwu a starter now. Robert Rochell is also ahead of my schedule. Tyree Gillespie and James Wiggins needs to step up from special teams next year.

2021 UDFA:
Marvin Wilson, Ar'Darius Washington, Zayne Anderson, and Tyler Coyle had cups of coffee. Will see if Dylan Moses comes back from injury.

2022 FA targets: I might sign a safety for multiple years. Might resign a few one-year players if their current teams resign. Will try to get value in 1 year deals for virtually any defensive position. .

2022 Draft targets: 1 DE 1 DT 1 LB 1 or 2 CB 2 S

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Overall projected record 2-14. Kinda generous but I figured for a couple of games the defense would look NFL-like. Particularly late against a disinterested team.

Draft strategy:

1) I won't get enough quality players in the draft to fix my defense, but I hope to get enough to put me in reach to fix it in 2023. So emphasis on defenders at all positions.

2) A few key offensive players could bring my offense up from low end average to top 10. A quality receiver. A pass catching tight end.

3) In the first round, I am happy to trade out of the first pick, but do not expect a credible offer. I will probably pick the DE that pairs best with Trey Hendrickson

4) Top of the second round will be pure best player available that is not a quarterback, and it is never a quarterback.

5) Round 3 and 4 will be best player available with preference for defense, and at that stage there are always players with similar grades.

6) Rounds 5 thru 7 will be a backup center and punter plus anyone I see with starter potential, no matter how slight the chance.

Edited by Techbert
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