Final Mock

[Joe]

I'm going to try and keep this short because I'm offering three scenarios per pick. This is a I think will/want to have/probably will happen draft.

I've got our needs listed on a scale from 1-10 below:

1. OT: We've got nobody behind Bakh and Turner right now and we can't rely on Elgton Jenkins constantly moving around; we need consistency. 
2. DB: We've been trying to develop the DB position spending serious money in FA on a player that has worked out for the most. It's the depth and CB2 that obviously concern all of us.
3. IDL: It's been Kenny Clark with a bunch of JAG's, flashes in the pan, and role players around him for quite sometime. We need a strong player next to Kenny or at least an upgrade.
4. WR: Say what you want about Davante's contract situation, but behind him and Lazard we really don't have a clear picture moving forward given MVS's inconsistencies.
5. ILB: We have some depth concerns here that could be alleviated Day 3 depending on who's left. 
6. RB: Who's our RB3. We know Jones and Dillon are 1 and 2, but while we've quietly been developing talent behind those two nobody has really stood out.
7. EDGE: Gary took a huge step forward this past year and our immediate needs elsewhere overshadow this potential future need.
8. TE: Provided Deguara comes back from injury, we're pretty set with Lewis pouring his heartout in his 30's, Tonyan erupting last year, and Sternberger with a chip on his shoulder.
9. IOL: We MIGHT need a Center, but with Jenkins playing tons of snaps at Center, Jake Hanson entering his 2nd year as a Center, and tons of depth at Guard we can afford to pass.
10. QB: I wasn't a fan of the Jordan Love pick last year, but it's idiotic that people are suggesting a trade on draft day. You really want Kellen Mond, Sam Ehlinger, or Kyle Trask? Yeah, me neither. Again, hated the Love pick with a passion, but I'd rather see him suck first before jettisoning him.

 

Round 1:
What I think will happen: *Packers Trade up to 21 giving up picks 29, 135, and 142*: Greg Newsome II, CB, N'western: With Teven Jenkins, Penei Sewell, Rashan Slater, Alijah Vera-Tucker, and Christian Darrisaw ALL off the board, Indy would rather not reach for a LT at this point as there is a big drop-off from the first four to the next 4 starting with Alex Leatherwood and Samuel Cosmi. Obviously, Newsome is plug-n-play.

What I want to happen: *Packers Trade up to 23 giving up picks 29, 92, and 178 while receiving pick 107*: Teven Jenkins, OT, OK St.: IMO Christian Darrisaw is a sure-fire pick at 21 TBH, but with both Baltimore and potentially Pittsburgh(provided the Villanueva rumor to be true) seeking an OT, we need to leapfrog them to make a deal work. Jenkins fits our system and is plug-n-play at RT.

What will probably happen:*Packers Trade up to 25 giving up picks 29 and 135*: Asante Samuel Jr., CB, Florida St: He has the bloodlines and the notoriety to be selected a bit earlier than most would imagine. I have an inkling that Zaven Collins would actually be the pick here, but too many signs are pointing to us drafting ASJ. We may, believe it or not, stay put at 29 to draft either of them as well.

 

Round 2:
What I think will happen: We stay at pick 62: Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue: Moore's going to slip mainly due to size. I'm not a fan of Moore because of his lack of long speed, but while that's desirable our offense doesn't tend to go for chunk yardage plays unless we're down. Moore easily supplants Ervin and Austin in the roles they typically occupied and finally establishes a legitimate RS threat.

What I want to happen:*Packers trade up to 46 giving up picks 62 and 92 receiving pick 120*: Levi Onwuzurike, IDL, Washington: Onwuzurike is a powerful IDL that is still growing into his body, but despite being 290 he has surprising athleticism. The Smiths, Gary, and Kenny will be attracting all sorts of attention on any given snap giving Levi a ton of opportunities to easily disrupt the play.

What will probably happen: We stay at pick 62: Quinn Meinerz, C, Wisc-Whitewater: I personally think it's a bit early to be selecting him, but with the 2nd tier of OT's most likely selected, we'll wait until Day 3 to see if Walker Little or a similar prospect has fallen in this event. I can't see us NOT drafting an OT within the first 3 rounds, but it also wouldn't surprise me if it happened.
 

Round 3:
What I think will happen: We stay put at pick 92: Alim McNeill, IDL, NC St: Most have him going early Day 3 because of his stubby arms, but for a big guy McNeill has some surprising agility and vision. I wouldn't mind this pick one iota as he could slide in as an instant upgrade over Tyler Lancaster at NT kicking Kenny to either DE position where he would feast on one-on-one match-ups given that McNeill's strength would most likely command at least a double-team.

What I want to happen: I don't want this pick...literally. We've proven time and again that we don't know what we're doing in the third round and at this point in the round, you're looking at guys that will most certainly go before your 4th round pick; even if you're picking relatively early(read: 115-125). Hell I'd even give up our 3rd round pick next year if it meant we traded up in the first two rounds of this draft knowing that next year's draft is supposed to be rather weak.

What will probably happen: We stay put at pick 92: JaCoby Stevens, SPUR, LSU: Stevens is a 6th rounder all day and I have no problem taking him there, but when you look at our history and you look at what Joe Barry expects out of his LB's Stevens just makes too much sense not to take a gamble. Again, I wouldn't mind him if he's a Day 3 pick, but at this point in the draft I'm willing to bet that Gutey will think someone will pull the trigger on him before our next pick.

Round 4: *note - we currently have picks 135 and 142 pre-draft day trades
What I think will happen: We probably won't be selecting until pick 173.

What I want to happen: Having that I've picked up 107 and 120, while keeping 135 and 142, AND still retaining pick 173 in the 5th, I'm listening to offers for pick 135 in particular. There are several impact players that could be had in the 4th IMHO and wouldn't mind the Ambry Thomas pick though I think he may be a bit soon. Additionally, we all know certain players will significantly drop in the draft for a myriad of reasons. That said, Buffalo is in a win-now mode and doesn't have a 4th round pick. They DO however have a relatively early 5th rounder at 161. Ergo, they send us picks 161 and 213 along with a 2022 5th round pick to move up to 135. Below are our picks in the 4th after the trade:
107: Walker Little, OT, Stanford: I know I bashed his run-blocking skills, but in the 4th round, you can't pass up elite skills in pass-pro.
120: Chuba Hubbard, RB, Okie St.: When Hubbard is on he can't be stopped. I wanted to go Trey Sermon, but Hubbard is more explosive.
142: Ambry Thomas, CB, Michigan: *see next scenario

What will probably happen: Past trends suggest that we will have traded at least one of our 4th round picks to move up in the 1st. However, I'll make a pick here in the event that we only used pick 135 to trade up. Ergo at pick 142: Ambry Thomas, CB, Michigan: Thomas can contribute on ST's immediately and can be played inside where he excels in zone and boasts an RAS score of 8.96. Paulson Adebo would make sense here too, but there is no indication that we are interested though that's not to say we're not.

Round 5:
What I think will happen: We might package picks 173 and 178 to move up, but at this point in the draft, we're focused on the extra draft visits and guys who may have a 3rd or 4th round grade that fell. We'll probably stay put though and do the following:
173: Brendan Jaimes, OL, Nebraska: I'm thinking we are of the mind that he can be a decent RT instead of someone who gets kicked inside to Guard.
178: Tommy Tremble, TE, Notre Dame: He's a rich man's Josiah Deguara and might knock Sternberger off the roster.

What I want to happen: We picked up Buffalo's pick at 161 and have retained pick 173:
161: Chazz Surratt, ILB, UNC: Surratt is a strong athlete who's on the ascent. We'd probably be lucky to land him here, but he's a project so he might slip.
173: I stick with Jaimes. I think we can make him a viable swing G/T.

What will probably happen: We still have 173 and 178 in this scenario as well. I'm guessing we go with Jaimes and Tremble but Tremble may be off the board. I could see either Thomas Graham Jr. or BPA chosen here. I'll leave that assumption to you.

Rounds 6 and 7: *I combined both given that I doubt a trade will happen
What I think will happen: We stay put and go BPA off our board

What I want to happen: Now's the time when the fun begins because we've got 4 picks and might even trade one for a future 5th or 6th a la Ted Thompson. Personally, I'd go the following at this point in the draft:
213: Nene Nwangwu, RB, Iowa St.: He's big, fast, and has an RSA score of 9.89. He hasn't blown up because he's been backing up David Montgomery and Breece Hall. 
214: Tarik Black, WR, Texas: High RAS(9.55), underserved at Michigan and Texas
220: BPA
256: BPA

What will probably happen: We stay put and go BPA off our board.

 

I'm not going to even attempt UDFA as I usually would. I also kind of ignored EDGE as we all thought EDGE was a bit of a need going into last year's draft only to draft one with the very last pick. The thing is that there are no signs that we've even spoken to any EDGE player in particular. We're focused more on the DB position despite Gutey saying he was very happy with that group after inking the hateable Kevin King. I've got a sinking feeling that Zaven Collins is going to be our first pick and that we wind up trading for an OT or resigning Rick Wagner/Jared Veldheer after restructuring Rodgers' deal. Something tells me they want Teven Jenkins and/or Brendan Jaimes and that's it.

[Dubz41]

l will never get those 10 minutes back.

[15412]

A lot of good work here, and a lot of work said once again.  I don’t agree on every point but you sell every point well. Tremble for instance will be long gone before you have him going, would love him to us need or not.  I also really believe we are far more likely to trade down early, trade up late.  I like where we sit at 29 and would hesitate to sell off treasure to move up

[ThatJerkDave]

A lot to unpack here, so here I go.

 

First How Dare You besmirch MVS! 

4

 

I wouldn't mind any of the first round scenarios.  My preferred is Jenkins, I think that is a starting RT for 10 years.  I don't really like trading up, but sometimes that's what has to happen.  I would be the least happy with trading up and ending up with Samuel, but I don't think I would be upset.

In the second, I really like the idea of trading up.  If we can get into the 40s with 62 and 92, I am all for it.  When running the draft sim games, it seems that there are a lot of players that go in the 35-45 range that I really like.  I also really wouldn't mind taking Meinerz at 62.  

I think trading the 3rd and 4th round picks is a reasonably good option.  I also don't know that there are 10 roster spots available with this team, so why make that many selections?

 

[Joe]

15 hours ago, ThatJerkDave said:

A lot to unpack here, so here I go.

 

First How Dare You besmirch MVS! 

4

 

I wouldn't mind any of the first round scenarios.  My preferred is Jenkins, I think that is a starting RT for 10 years.  I don't really like trading up, but sometimes that's what has to happen.  I would be the least happy with trading up and ending up with Samuel, but I don't think I would be upset.

In the second, I really like the idea of trading up.  If we can get into the 40s with 62 and 92, I am all for it.  When running the draft sim games, it seems that there are a lot of players that go in the 35-45 range that I really like.  I also really wouldn't mind taking Meinerz at 62.  

I think trading the 3rd and 4th round picks is a reasonably good option.  I also don't know that there are 10 roster spots available with this team, so why make that many selections?

 

LOL @ the Greta Thunberg thing. Fred Norris has that soundbyte ready on his computer on the Stern show lol. 

Many of those latter round picks are developmental guys you stash on the PS if they don't make the final 53. There needs to be some competition, in particular at CB; I think Ambry Thomas can send Ka'Dar Hollman packing. Hollman hasn't really done anything and Ambry Thomas strikes me as one of those guys who you can plug-n-play in a rotational role.

15 hours ago, 15412 said:

A lot of good work here, and a lot of work said once again.  I don’t agree on every point but you sell every point well. Tremble for instance will be long gone before you have him going, would love him to us need or not.  I also really believe we are far more likely to trade down early, trade up late.  I like where we sit at 29 and would hesitate to sell off treasure to move up

He's an enigma to many. Low production, tons of potential, questions regarding his low production. I don't want to move up either, but we're probably going to have to move up to grab one of the better OT's which we need desperately.