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Report: Rodgers Wants Out of Green Bay


Jaire_Island

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7 hours ago, incognito_man said:

How many more times per game would they have to rush for Adams to see an attributable and significant decline in production?

  • GB in 2020 was 7th in run/pass ratio at 45.7%, with 443 run plays and 526 pass plays
  • Second in the league was the Patriots at 53.3%
  • Adams had 149 targets in 2020, which is 28.3% over all 526 passing plays
  • He also had 1374 yards and 18 TDs

Therefore, if Green Bay was second in the league (let's assume the Patriots' 53.3% ratio, even though the Titans only ran it 51% of the time in 2018)

  • GB would have had 453 passing plays instead of 526
  • Adams would have had 128 targets instead of 149, assuming the same target rate. It would be safe to assume his rate would actually increase (you probably focus more on your #1 with fewer total targets), but let's keep it the same.
  • Yards would be 1180
  • TDs would be 15+

So yeah, still pretty elite imo no matter how much we run.

Sources:

https://fftoday.com/stats/20_run_pass_ratios.html

https://fftoday.com/stats/18_run_pass_ratios.html

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/targets/wr.php

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AdamDa01.htm

Edited by Packer_ESP
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10 hours ago, NFLGURU said:

He wasn't the playcaller in LA.  Gets to Tenn where he calls plays and is 2nd.  

Gets to GB with Rodgers passing ability and goes to 7th.  

Take Rodgers out by retirement/trade and they'll be running just like in Tenn.  

 

You don't know that.   Personnel dictate what they are doing.  Tennessee had to run it that much. I think MLF found the sweetspot last year.  #1 offense.  Why do you come off that?  They don't need to run more, they need to run well.  Big difference.  The passing game is predicated on play-action so we need to run well.  This offense is where MLF wants it- on top. We might see a couple more runs a game, but nothing drastic. 

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13 hours ago, Leader said:

I'm sure they'll be a dip from AR to Love - but without seeing anything of Love yet, I cant gauge how big that will be. Some folks on this board feel he's got ARs arm. How he works his progressions and such......time and experience will tell the tale.

 

 

Those who are determined to judge Love by how he compares to Rodgers' QB play are destined to have their hearts broken.  It would be best to purge any inclination to think of our new QB, whether he starts this year or in a few years, as someone who might fill the role Rodgers played for the Packers throughout his career.  Plenty of teams compete regularly without having an Aaron Rodgers, but if the Packers are going to be as successful as they have been for the last 30 years, they'll need to build a different sort of team.

Since our fans seem to be exhausted from all the winning, maybe that sort of switch in mentality will go over better than I expect.

Edited by StinkySauce
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14 hours ago, GHARMON9 said:

Tannehill is a Jag? lol  

Let go from the Dolphins.  Underperformed over there.

Went to a new system, lit it up.  Yes, he was just a guy in Miami.  Became much more than that in the right system in Tennessee.  

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17 hours ago, SSG said:

  

In recent years we've seen multiple QBs of Aaron Rodgers caliber leave their long standing franchise for a new location.  The result in both instances was the new team going all in and winning a Super Bowl.  Yes, if Denver is willing to invest into winning for Aaron Rodgers in the same manner they did for Manning I think Rodgers has a better chance at winning a Super Bowl in Denver than he does Green Bay.  

 

All Aaron Rodgers has to do in Denver to get to a Super Bowl is get past Herbert twice, Mahomes at least twice, maybe The Ravens and Jackson and maybe Josh Allen.

In the NFC...Brady?

Just from looking at QB's, the easiest way to get there is through the NFC.

At a very high level, I don't think Rodgers even wins that division in the next 3-4 years as long as Mahomes is healthy.

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14 hours ago, incognito_man said:

Then why didn't Adams' production drop with MLF as a coach? He literally just had his best year ever in this scheme.

I think, at this point, we should just acknowledge that Adams' production is definitively NOT dependent on Aaron Rodgers AND that his production is not hindered at all by MLF or his scheme.

I'll agree to that, only if you concede that Aaron Rodgers certainly helps out Adams along the way.

Vante is going to get open regardless of who is under center.  No matter who is under center, if Vante is in GB, he will be the focal point of the passing game.

With Rodgers, more runs are checked to quick passes to Vante.  With Rodgers, he will look Vante's way more than any other receiver.

Vante will produce regardless of who is under center.  Rodgers just enhances him a few clicks.

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7 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

All Aaron Rodgers has to do in Denver to get to a Super Bowl is get past Herbert twice, Mahomes at least twice, maybe The Ravens and Jackson and maybe Josh Allen.

In the NFC...Brady?

Just from looking at QB's, the easiest way to get there is through the NFC.

At a very high level, I don't think Rodgers even wins that division in the next 3-4 years as long as Mahomes is healthy.

Do you think that KC may develop "roster rot" due to the amount they are paying Mahommes?

I kind of wonder if the Chargers aren't coming into the better position if Herbert continues to develop.

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4 hours ago, Packer_ESP said:
  • GB in 2020 was 7th in run/pass ratio at 45.7%, with 443 run plays and 526 pass plays
  • Second in the league was the Patriots at 53.3%
  • Adams had 149 targets in 2020, which is 28.3% over all 526 passing plays
  • He also had 1374 yards and 18 TDs

Therefore, if Green Bay was second in the league (let's assume the Patriots' 53.3% ratio, even though the Titans only ran it 51% of the time in 2018)

  • GB would have had 453 passing plays instead of 526
  • Adams would have had 128 targets instead of 149, assuming the same target rate. It would be safe to assume his rate would actually increase (you probably focus more on your #1 with fewer total targets), but let's keep it the same.
  • Yards would be 1180
  • TDs would be 15+

So yeah, still pretty elite imo no matter how much we run.

Sources:

https://fftoday.com/stats/20_run_pass_ratios.html

https://fftoday.com/stats/18_run_pass_ratios.html

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/targets/wr.php

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AdamDa01.htm

Excellent stuff. If the Packers did jump to 53% run based on last years total number of 990 plays, it would mean a total of 80 more running plays on the year. On a 16 game schedule that is 5 rushes a game, 1.25 more rush attempts per quarter. A large percentage of the fanbase will not even notice the difference. 

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12 minutes ago, Ragnar Danneskjold said:

Do you think that KC may develop "roster rot" due to the amount they are paying Mahommes?

I kind of wonder if the Chargers aren't coming into the better position if Herbert continues to develop.

Nope.  KC will not have roster rot.  They got Thuney this year, traded for Brown and added a few other pieces.  They are always going to be in the mix.  And once Rodgers inks a new deal with Denver, that contract won't be as long and will have more cap ramifications.

Chargers really appear to be "up and coming" as far as teams go.  To me, they could easily be on the same level as a Rodgers led Broncos team, assuming we take a lot of picks and two good, young players.

Vegas is the wild card.  They do weird things with the draft.  Regardless of those, they still play KC tough.  But I don't think they would be on the same level as a Rodgers led Bronco team.

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I was of the opinion that GB would eventually cave and give AR12 a new 3-year guaranteed deal or something of that nature, but after seeing the video of him singing the lead track on Taylor Swift's Folklore on Miles Teller's wife's instagram, I've never been more certain that he's gone gone. 

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5 hours ago, ifeelasleep said:

can't wait for june 1st, when aliens are revealed to the world and aaron rodgers gets traded (or not). Rodgers will see it as a slight that ufo's get more clicks and reporting.

How dare those aliens not notify Aaron Rodgers!? I bet that he won't talk to them for even longer than he won't talk to his father.

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It is going to be really, really easy to bash on Aaron Rodgers the person once he has left our organization.

But we should never forget how special Godgers was when on the field.

Like, I don't care who he sleeps with, because for 16 years he has absolutely effed Chicago, Minnesota and the Lions.

 

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4 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

It is going to be really, really easy to bash on Aaron Rodgers the person once he has left our organization

It's going to be amazing how many people will finally see him for what he was as a person once he's gone. 

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3 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

It is going to be really, really easy to bash on Aaron Rodgers the person once he has left our organization.

But we should never forget how special Godgers was when on the field.

Like, I don't care who he sleeps with, because for 16 years he has absolutely effed Chicago, Minnesota and the Lions.

 

Oh I will never forget the good times, certainly appreciate the super bowl win and the MVPs and the years of winning football, but yes it's going to be really funny going sour grapes on this guy for a while. Might as well enjoy it. I was young enough when the Favre stuff happened to actually be emotionally affected by it. I'm old enough now that this is just all theater to me. It's entertainment. 

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