🏈 Pick #17 is in: OL, Alex Leatherwood, Alabama

[RaidersAreOne]

 

[oakdb36]

6 hours ago, Turnobili said:

i remember when people tried to justify taking mike mitchell in the 2nd round because of a rumor the bears wanted him too

I don't understand why Mitchell would still be used as an example when he's a pick that turned out to be a miss for the media (and Mayock...). That guy went on to play 10 years with 88 starts in the NFL and was one of the most productive player in that 2nd round. If someone was right, it's the team.

[Turnobili]

8 hours ago, oakdb36 said:

I don't understand why Mitchell would still be used as an example when he's a pick that turned out to be a miss for the media (and Mayock...). That guy went on to play 10 years with 88 starts in the NFL and was one of the most productive player in that 2nd round. If someone was right, it's the team.

because its generally a question of process. the patriots hit the GOAT in the 6th round. doenst mean teams would be wise to employ that strategy when there are higher quality prospects available earlier.

[Roninho]

9 minutes ago, Turnobili said:

because its generally a question of process. the patriots hit the GOAT in the 6th round. doenst mean teams would be wise to employ that strategy when there are higher quality prospects available earlier.

I don't think that was a case of higher quality prospects being available earlier, but more a case of teams simply failing to correctly scout Brady and his qualities. 

[Turnobili]

2 minutes ago, Roninho said:

I don't think that was a case of higher quality prospects being available earlier, but more a case of teams simply failing to correctly scout Brady and his qualities. 

sure, but even in that scenario, taking Brady in round 2 would have been an objectively poor decision (when he was considered a poor prospect widely known to be available on day 3)

even if you were the smartest team in the room who knew how great he was, you have to maximize the value of your picks. 

i mean lets even assume my first point is wrong, and that any team should have spent a first on him. what if you had the #1 overall pick or the #30 overall pick? would you not trade back in the former situation? 

Edited May 3, 2021 by Turnobili

[oakdb36]

3 minutes ago, Turnobili said:

because its generally a question of process. the patriots hit the GOAT in the 6th round. doenst mean teams would be wise to employ that strategy when there are higher quality prospects available earlier.

That would mean the only strategy would be to follow the media boards where picks would end up well regarded as correct value. No need to scout.

[Turnobili]

4 minutes ago, oakdb36 said:

That would mean the only strategy would be to follow the media boards where picks would end up well regarded as correct value. No need to scout.

of course not. you need to scout to identify players you are going to be targeting. but you also need to assess how other teams value them to know when trading back is or isn't a good idea, or what round you need to pounce on them. what if our scouts thought Koonce was our guy, and the #3 overall EDGE player in the draft, for instance and took him in the 2nd? by identifying his value is later, it enabled us to also get Moehrig and then land Koonce later.

if you have the ability to "beat the board" and have a better ranking than consensus, then kudos. you will select higher quality players at every turn. but that doesnt justify taking them significantly earlier than the market has them because you are failing to maximize the value of your pick.

no matter your board or scouting process, you would almost never select the same player #1 overall that you would also select #32 overall

Edited May 3, 2021 by Turnobili

[BackinBlack]

4 minutes ago, Turnobili said:

of course not. you need to scout to identify players you are going to be targeting. but you also need to assess how other teams value them to know when trading back is or isn't a good idea, or what round you need to pounce on them. what if our scouts thought Koonce was our guy, and the #3 overall EDGE player in the draft, for instance and took him in the 2nd? by identifying his value is later, it enabled us to also get Moehrig and then land Koonce later.

if you have the ability to "beat the board" and have a better ranking than consensus, then kudos. you will select higher quality players at every turn. but that doesnt justify taking them significantly earlier than the market has them because you are failing to maximize the value of your pick.

no matter your board or scouting process, you would almost never select the same player #1 overall that you would also select #32 overall

to be fair, it sounds like we had a trade down option, but it was to a OT needy team and not great value so we elected to pass, then 4 OTs came off after our pick and our 2nd.
I dont think it was AS big of a reach as I initially did. I think Leatherwood would have been gone before our 2nd round pick. 

[Geezy]

i just want to know what makes Leatherwood not a 1st rounder. Kolton Miller was a bigger project and hes turned out fine. 

[Turnobili]

5 minutes ago, Geezy said:

i just want to know what makes Leatherwood not a 1st rounder. Kolton Miller was a bigger project and hes turned out fine. 

what if we took Hunter Renfrow in the 2nd round and thought it was a good idea since he has panned out to be a solid player?

specifically, the 2018 draft class had a much weaker tackle group than 2021. the top 4 tackles were McGlinchey, Miller, Wynn, and Corbett...  

Edited May 3, 2021 by Turnobili

[Jeremy408]

2 minutes ago, Geezy said:

i just want to know what makes Leatherwood not a 1st rounder. Kolton Miller was a bigger project and hes turned out fine. 

What they say is that he’s not the best pass blocker right now. Mayock essentially addressed that by saying we drafted him because of what he can do in the run game(apparently he’s the best run blocking right tackle next to Tevin Jenkins) but he has the ability to develop into a plus pass blocker.

[Jeremy408]

Just now, Turnobili said:

what if we took Hunter Renfrow in the 2nd round and thought it was a good idea since he has panned out to be a solid player?

Leatherwood would not have been there in the fifth round so they’re not comparable.

[Turnobili]

1 minute ago, Jeremy408 said:

Leatherwood would not have been there in the fifth round so they’re not comparable.

its not a 1 to 1. its the concept of taking a player earlier than he should or could have gone. that a player worked out doesnt always justify the spot he was selected.

[oakdb36]

16 minutes ago, Turnobili said:

of course not. you need to scout to identify players you are going to be targeting. but you also need to assess how other teams value them to know when trading back is or isn't a good idea, or what round you need to pounce on them. what if our scouts thought Koonce was our guy, and the #3 overall EDGE player in the draft, for instance and took him in the 2nd? by identifying his value is later, it enabled us to also get Moehrig and then land Koonce later.

if you have the ability to "beat the board" and have a better ranking than consensus, then kudos. you will select higher quality players at every turn. but that doesnt justify taking them significantly earlier than the market has them because you are failing to maximize the value of your pick.

no matter your board or scouting process, you would almost never select the same player #1 overall that you would also select #32 overall

That market to us is the media boards. That's what we judge the value on. The only way for us to think we got value is if it's aligned with those boards.

[Geezy]

Just now, Turnobili said:

what if we took Hunter Renfrow in the 2nd round and thought it was a good idea since he has panned out to be a solid player?

im just asking a question, what makes him a bad pick at 17? I just been hearing about value, which is all perception. I havent seen anyone call him a bad player, or identify why he wouldnt be successful. So im asking for some evaluation, because with his traits, and experience he seems to me to be a quality RT prospect. I dont pretend to be a scout and i dont watch enough college football to give an honest assessment of every prospect. So im asking those in the know, why should i be concerned that we reached so bad.