🏈 Pick #17 is in: OL, Alex Leatherwood, Alabama

[Mr Raider]

5 hours ago, BayRaider said:

You’re letting Jacobs off scott free. He has very little long speed which has become obvious to teams. They literally played Jacobs like Baseball Outfielders play Ichrio Suzuki. 

I don't really think I agree with this. 

I'm not saying Jacobs doesn't deserve any blame or that he's played perfectly. That obviously isn't the case. 

But I disagree on the notion that his lack of long speed was much of a factor in his efficiency taking a dip in year two. Nobody, including defensive coaches from opposing teams thought Jacobs was a long speed, super explosive home run hitting RB. Nobody feared that aspect of his game, even as a rookie. I don't know how much a RB long speed really plays into scheme and how defenses approach run defense to begin with anyway. Even the backs with exceptional long speed don't consistently churn out 20+ yard runs. Those backs may hit those runs more frequently than Jacobs, but we're still talking about most years the league leaders in rushes over 20 yards having 15-20 per year (usually right at 1 per game), the season leader in rushes over 40 yards is typically 4-7 total on the season. Not to mention a lot of those backs with exceptional long speed are far more feast or famine. Breaking off 10+ yard runs after being bottled up for long stretches of carries going for -1 to 1 or 2 yards. Obviously there are exceptions to that like Henry, but throughout history it does hold true fairly frequently. 

I also think I could make a pretty good argument that explosive runs of 10-50+ yards have more to do with how good your run blocking is. At least on the whole. Even if there are some exceptions. Most running backs in the NFL can break off 10-20 yard runs with relative ease when given great blocking. You give the majority of NFL backs enough blocking to allow them to build up and hit full speed getting past the LOS and line backers they will have enough speed, power, and shiftyness to make corners and safeties miss or run them over. 

But consistently hit even the backs with elite long speed at or behind the LOS or make them have to pause/change direction, etc, they will struggle mighty with efficiency. At the NFL level if your blocking is constantly losing ground and making your back stop or try and juke out a lineman or LB behind the LOS it doesn't matter that much (in terms of consistency) how physically great a RB is. Those with elite long speed may be able to make a handful more spectacular plays where they seemingly do it all and break off a big play, but a lot of those types of backs will have just as many or more plays where they try and do to much or try too much for the big play and have big negative plays. 

IMO the biggest cause for Jacobs drop in efficiency last year was the run blocking. I thought it was regularly poor. In terms of run blocking Hudson did take a step back last year IMO (he was still great at pass protection though), watch the highlights from this past year and the year prior, there was a huge dip in how frequently Hudson was able to pull and/or get to the second level, same with Gabe, Good isn't great at getting to the second level either, and TB went from a great run blocker in 2019 for Jacobs to rarely on the field, and Young isn't good at really anything, but he definitely isn't a great run blocker. The stats kind of bear that out as well. Jacobs was still great and near the top of the league in terms of yards after contact, YPC after contact, and forced missed tackles, yet saw a big dip in terms of his overall YPC. That seems like an obvious connection to me. He was getting hit in the backfield and at the LOS FAR more last year compared to 2019, and a back that isn't as powerful, strong and shifty as Jacobs would have been even worse in terms of YPC because Jacobs doesn't get hit and fall backwards very often. Jacobs also wasn't some home run hitter that lost all his game breaking speed between year one and year two. Yet in 2019 he was top 5 (4th among running backs) in the entire NFL in terms of 20+ yard rushes with 8 behind only Lamar Jackson, Henry, Chubb, and Marlon Mack. Yet in 2020 that number fell to only 3 all season. And in 2019 he had 2 40+ yard rushes which was top 10 in the NFL and the league leader was McCaffrey with 4 all year. 

Jacob's deep speed would be a real thing in terms of limiting his game, but only really to where it would be a valid reason why he will never lead the league in 40+ yard runs, but in that area his lack of deep speed is basically going to be about 2-4 less of those runs over a 16 game season. Jacobs has some issues, the biggest probably being that so far he hasn't answered with a resounding YES that he can take the pounding of being a feature full time back without a ton of need for a good #2 back like guys like Henry can. He didn't do it in college and he has throughout two seasons been banged up pretty regularly and looked injured or faded down the stretch. He also hasn't shown that he can be a great asset in the passing game. He has had a few drops, and the staff said coming into the year making him a bigger part in that area of the offense was a top priority, and it didn't really happen last year. He has shown some ability there but not a lot. Is it because he isn't great at doing it? Is it a lack of creativity or willingness from the staff? Is it because he is leaned on so much in the running game and we don't want him getting even more touches? That is a discussion I could go multiple ways on. Jacobs dip in production being due to teams playing him differently because they figured him out as a non elite long speed runner? I don't buy that for even a second. 

What I saw from him his first 12 games of his rookie season, and last year in the handful of games we clearly won in the trenches last season tell me he has every necessary trait to be one of the elite pure runners in the NFL. I think a lot of other backs that aren't Henry, Chubb, etc would have had trouble averaging over 4 a carry on our team last year as well. Now does Jacobs have the skill set to be an elite running back overall? I haven't seen enough in terms of his pass catching and versatility to say yes I believe he can. I think 95% of running backs rely on their blocking to have a high and consistent YPC, the elite ones more often can make something out of nothing and will make an extra handful of plays backs like Jacobs can't. I think Jacobs regularly showed last year how good of a runner he is/can be just by consistently finding a way to get back to the LOS or turn runs into 3-4 yard postives. Because it took a lot of skill to not have FAR more negative runs than Jacobs had. 

And lastly I think having a super high end back up like Drake to be able to take carries from Jacobs without making the offense immensely more one dimensional, a back capable of explosive plays and taking over in some goal line situations without sacrificing significant ability to find the end zone, and capable of catching passes will make Jacobs the best version of the player he is. Even most elite backs don't see the type of total reliance Jacobs has seen his first 2 years (especially early in the year when Booker was seen as lucky to have made the roster and was Jacobs primary backup). Even elite ones struggle when asked to do everything, all the time, at Jacobs rate, and stay healthy all season. 

The thing that will decide if Jacobs is thrown back in the mix of the casuals top 8 or so backs will come down to the OL and if they can start getting a push more often. I don't buy for a second defenses found the magic way to play him and make him not very efficient. It was the same story as it has always been for the vast majority of great running teams in NFL history... Their guys far more frequently pushed our guys back and hit our back in the backfield, our wins were more stalemates. Jacobs can be near elite, but he will need his OL to play well. 

[BayRaider]

9 minutes ago, BackinBlack said:

Honestly would like to know in your mind how we ended up with a top 10 O?

You just wrote an entire post showing why jacobs wasnt worth a first round pick. 
You blame are our oline for 60 % of the rushing faults. 
Carr is not a dog, and cannot elevate players or throw into a tight window. 

Do you think we had just unreal WRs who are always wide open?
or just Waller is a god and got us there himself? (he may be 😆)

Lots of doom and gloom, but for how much hate some of our offensive players get we were still top 10 in points.

- Gruden is a much better offensive mind/play caller than he gets credit for. Just a fool in the redzone.

- Waller is a Top 5 TE. Perhaps Top 3. He is a huge reason we convert on 3rd down most of the time. 

- Never said Jacobs is bad. He's a Top 15 RB. This whole argument was fans putting 100% (literally 100%) of the run game woes on the OL. That's simply not true. There is plenty of blame to give to Jacobs as well. 

- Didn't say Carr was horrible. He's around the 15th best QB in the NFL. Slightly Above-Average. 

- OL was great in 2019 (both pass pro and run blocking), and still somewhat okish in 2020. Will be interesting in 2021. 

- While none are great, Gruden always has plenty of speed at WR, keeping defenses not playing shallow. This allows Waller to eat, and Carr to carve up the middle. 

 

With all that said, we are right where we are suppose to be, 14th in Offensive DVOA. Not a Top 10 Offense. (PPG/YPG are not a great measurement). I expect us to be in the 13th-14th range again this season. 

Edited May 18, 2021 by BayRaider

[BackinBlack]

Just now, BayRaider said:

- Gruden is a much better offensive mind/play caller than he gets credit for. Just a fool in the redzone.

- Waller is a Top 5 TE. Perhaps Top 3. He is a huge reason we convert on 3rd down most of the time. 

- Never said Jacobs is bad. He's a Top 15 RB. This whole argument was fans putting 100% (literally 100%) of the run game on woes on the OL. That's simply not true. There is plenty of blame to give to Jacobs as well. 

- Didn't say Carr was horrible. He's around the 15th best QB in the NFL. Slightly Above-Average. 

- OL was great in 2019 (both pass pro and run blocking), and still somewhat okish in 2020. Will be interesting in 2021. 

- While none are great, Gruden always has plenty of speed at WR, keeping defenses not playing shallow. This allows Waller to eat, and Carr to carve up the middle. 

 

With all that said, we are right where we are suppose to be, 14th in Offensive DVOA. Not a Top 10 Offense. (PPG/YPG are not a great measurement). I expect us to be in the 13th-14th range again this season. 

Fair enough, and I agree with a lot of this. 
Gruden is still in the process of building this O as well, Jacobs being our feature back is what made us draft Ruggs early. 
Yes Ruggs was a reach, but he was a first round talent, and Gruden wanted the fastest one. It is essential for opening up our O.
As you note, Jacobs plays a stacked box. It is why we needed Ruggs. Ceedee may have a better career, but he doesnt push dbs back. Nelly was a great surprise, but ultimately, that is a worse version of what Gruden has in mind for Ruggs (Obviously Ruggs, needs to make it happen on field now)

Gruden has a 10 year contract, and knows he can build this thing the way he wants. 

I think Jacobs is a top 10, but had a down year for sure. I think he was playing injured, which is problematic cause thatd be 2 years in a row. 

Waller by design is our #1 target (and is a legit #1 recieving target in the NFL, top 10 probably), people who want a true #1 WR, I think will be waiting for awhile, unless Bryon Edwards makes a massive jump. 

I agree about yards per game not being a great measurement, I disagree about points. That is all I care about on O. 

I expect our O to continue to improve, under Gruden. 
He just really needs to figure out the redzone. and that may involve getting MM some reps there. 
 

[Turnobili]

9 minutes ago, Mr Raider said:

I don't really think I agree with this. 

I'm not saying Jacobs doesn't deserve any blame or that he's played perfectly. That obviously isn't the case. 

But I disagree on the notion that his lack of long speed was much of a factor in his efficiency taking a dip in year two. Nobody, including defensive coaches from opposing teams thought Jacobs was a long speed, super explosive home run hitting RB. Nobody feared that aspect of his game, even as a rookie. I don't know how much a RB long speed really plays into scheme and how defenses approach run defense to begin with anyway. Even the backs with exceptional long speed don't consistently churn out 20+ yard runs. Those backs may hit those runs more frequently than Jacobs, but we're still talking about most years the league leaders in rushes over 20 yards having 15-20 per year (usually right at 1 per game), the season leader in rushes over 40 yards is typically 4-7 total on the season. Not to mention a lot of those backs with exceptional long speed are far more feast or famine. Breaking off 10+ yard runs after being bottled up for long stretches of carries going for -1 to 1 or 2 yards. Obviously there are exceptions to that like Henry, but throughout history it does hold true fairly frequently. 

I also think I could make a pretty good argument that explosive runs of 10-50+ yards have more to do with how good your run blocking is. At least on the whole. Even if there are some exceptions. Most running backs in the NFL can break off 10-20 yard runs with relative ease when given great blocking. You give the majority of NFL backs enough blocking to allow them to build up and hit full speed getting past the LOS and line backers they will have enough speed, power, and shiftyness to make corners and safeties miss or run them over. 

But consistently hit even the backs with elite long speed at or behind the LOS or make them have to pause/change direction, etc, they will struggle mighty with efficiency. At the NFL level if your blocking is constantly losing ground and making your back stop or try and juke out a lineman or LB behind the LOS it doesn't matter that much (in terms of consistency) how physically great a RB is. Those with elite long speed may be able to make a handful more spectacular plays where they seemingly do it all and break off a big play, but a lot of those types of backs will have just as many or more plays where they try and do to much or try too much for the big play and have big negative plays. 

IMO the biggest cause for Jacobs drop in efficiency last year was the run blocking. I thought it was regularly poor. In terms of run blocking Hudson did take a step back last year IMO (he was still great at pass protection though), watch the highlights from this past year and the year prior, there was a huge dip in how frequently Hudson was able to pull and/or get to the second level, same with Gabe, Good isn't great at getting to the second level either, and TB went from a great run blocker in 2019 for Jacobs to rarely on the field, and Young isn't good at really anything, but he definitely isn't a great run blocker. The stats kind of bear that out as well. Jacobs was still great and near the top of the league in terms of yards after contact, YPC after contact, and forced missed tackles, yet saw a big dip in terms of his overall YPC. That seems like an obvious connection to me. He was getting hit in the backfield and at the LOS FAR more last year compared to 2019, and a back that isn't as powerful, strong and shifty as Jacobs would have been even worse in terms of YPC because Jacobs doesn't get hit and fall backwards very often. Jacobs also wasn't some home run hitter that lost all his game breaking speed between year one and year two. Yet in 2019 he was top 5 (4th among running backs) in the entire NFL in terms of 20+ yard rushes with 8 behind only Lamar Jackson, Henry, Chubb, and Marlon Mack. Yet in 2020 that number fell to only 3 all season. And in 2019 he had 2 40+ yard rushes which was top 10 in the NFL and the league leader was McCaffrey with 4 all year. 

Jacob's deep speed would be a real thing in terms of limiting his game, but only really to where it would be a valid reason why he will never lead the league in 40+ yard runs, but in that area his lack of deep speed is basically going to be about 2-4 less of those runs over a 16 game season. Jacobs has some issues, the biggest probably being that so far he hasn't answered with a resounding YES that he can take the pounding of being a feature full time back without a ton of need for a good #2 back like guys like Henry can. He didn't do it in college and he has throughout two seasons been banged up pretty regularly and looked injured or faded down the stretch. He also hasn't shown that he can be a great asset in the passing game. He has had a few drops, and the staff said coming into the year making him a bigger part in that area of the offense was a top priority, and it didn't really happen last year. He has shown some ability there but not a lot. Is it because he isn't great at doing it? Is it a lack of creativity or willingness from the staff? Is it because he is leaned on so much in the running game and we don't want him getting even more touches? That is a discussion I could go multiple ways on. Jacobs dip in production being due to teams playing him differently because they figured him out as a non elite long speed runner? I don't buy that for even a second. 

What I saw from him his first 12 games of his rookie season, and last year in the handful of games we clearly won in the trenches last season tell me he has every necessary trait to be one of the elite pure runners in the NFL. I think a lot of other backs that aren't Henry, Chubb, etc would have had trouble averaging over 4 a carry on our team last year as well. Now does Jacobs have the skill set to be an elite running back overall? I haven't seen enough in terms of his pass catching and versatility to say yes I believe he can. I think 95% of running backs rely on their blocking to have a high and consistent YPC, the elite ones more often can make something out of nothing and will make an extra handful of plays backs like Jacobs can't. I think Jacobs regularly showed last year how good of a runner he is/can be just by consistently finding a way to get back to the LOS or turn runs into 3-4 yard postives. Because it took a lot of skill to not have FAR more negative runs than Jacobs had. 

And lastly I think having a super high end back up like Drake to be able to take carries from Jacobs without making the offense immensely more one dimensional, a back capable of explosive plays and taking over in some goal line situations without sacrificing significant ability to find the end zone, and capable of catching passes will make Jacobs the best version of the player he is. Even most elite backs don't see the type of total reliance Jacobs has seen his first 2 years (especially early in the year when Booker was seen as lucky to have made the roster and was Jacobs primary backup). Even elite ones struggle when asked to do everything, all the time, at Jacobs rate, and stay healthy all season. 

The thing that will decide if Jacobs is thrown back in the mix of the casuals top 8 or so backs will come down to the OL and if they can start getting a push more often. I don't buy for a second defenses found the magic way to play him and make him not very efficient. It was the same story as it has always been for the vast majority of great running teams in NFL history... Their guys far more frequently pushed our guys back and hit our back in the backfield, our wins were more stalemates. Jacobs can be near elite, but he will need his OL to play well. 

[BayRaider]

@Mr Raider You bring up some good points, but my point is defenses do play Jacobs differently than 2019. They are not afraid to shoot their gaps, because they will gamble Jacobs beating them, because Jacobs beating them likely doesn't involve a 30 yard run. Their lost gamble would probably result in a 15 yard gain. Shows up on tape often. Whereas with many other RB's, that lost gamble is 30+ yards, and possibly a 60 yard TD. 

With that said, we are on the same page. I still think the main issue is run blocking. But to say it's just run blocking is extremely irresponsible in my opinion. Teams adjust to rookies all the time. QB's, RB's, WR's, etc. Jacobs can still be Low-End Top 10 RB, but he's never going to be an elite guy with that long speed issue. However, Drake does seem like a perfect compliment, and I am excited to see them in action this year. 

[BayRaider]

7 minutes ago, BackinBlack said:

Yes Ruggs was a reach, but he was a first round talent, and Gruden wanted the fastest one. It is essential for opening up our O.
As you note, Jacobs plays a stacked box. It is why we needed Ruggs. Ceedee may have a better career, but he doesnt push dbs back.

I will actually defend a Raider pick for once. Ruggs was at his right value with that pick. Leatherwood, Arnette = Reaches of the century, and Ferrell, Abram = reaches. I also agree while Ruggs may not have as a great career as the three WR's taken after him, he does A LOT for an offense. Look at Tyreek Hill and Will Fuller. I always tell people, the Chiefs without Hill, and the Texans without Fuller (yes I know he's not there anymore) are totally different offenses. They instantly look like non-Top 10 offenses without those players. Taking the top off and keeping defenses honest is SUPER important. 

[NCOUGHMAN]

16 minutes ago, Turnobili said:

English 1a all over again lol

[Mr Raider]

None of that is to say that Jacobs was at the time, or since proven to be worth a first round pick. In the current NFL landscape most teams and fans don't think almost any back should be drafted in round one. 

And for the most part, I agree. It has been seen time and time again that decent to high level play at RB more so than any other position besides kickers and punters and maybe guards can be found pretty consistently all throughout the draft, from the second round to the seventh and even as undrafted guys. 

I didn't HATE the Jacobs pick at the time. I liked it well enough. I would have without question taken Sweat at 24 if I were making the picks because I loved him as a prospect. I would have gave serious consideration to him at 4. Certainly over Ferrell but personally even over Allen and Burns who I liked quite a bit too. I thought Sweat was a great prospect, played at a much more valuable position, and a much harder to fill position. And I think we could have gotten Jacobs at 27. I do think he would have gone before our pick in the 2nd, but maybe not. I did think a guy of Jacobs talent and ability was worthy of a selection anywhere from pick 20 in that draft and in most drafts. Mainly because teams picking that late are usually making their own selection and could be in a position to take more of a luxury pick at RB to try and push a playoff team (or close to it) over the hump. We obviously weren't in that position so perhaps should have went after a harder to fill, higher impact position.

I won't argue too much with those that feel we should have went another direction or that his skill set should have made him a 2nd round type of target for a team that was rebuilding like us. None of that to me though means that much, especially when we're evaluating him from an on the field perspective based off what he has shown this far. 

I just think the eye test and his production in year one and the production in year two (more importantly the contrast in certain areas that paint a more clear picture of where most of the fault lies) show Jacobs is one of the players we should be worried least about and should have more confidence in. The rushing performance last year was below average and needs to be a lot better. I just can't really put more than like 20-25% of the blame on Jacobs or his skill set. 

Jacobs not being worthy of where he was drafted in a lot of fans minds speaks more about the way the RB position is valued than his play or his athletic tools. Most fans expect a RB drafted in the first to be a top 3 type back immediately because of the short shelf life. And I get that. But every draft is different. Some stronger and deeper. Some others not so much. Hard to rate it in a pure vacuum. I believe Jacobs has the skill set to be a top 5 back. Elite? Maybe not to me, but I am much tougher in terms of handing out the elite label than most. I currently would only say Henry, McCaffrey, Chubb, and Cook are currently elite running backs. With Alvin Kamara, Saquan Barkley, Kareem Hunt, Jonathan Taylor, DeAndre Swift, all being guys I need to see like one more season from where they play to their potential and stay healthy, or guys I pegged from last years draft as having the potential to be elite backs, and in Hunts case he is an elite talent stuck in a spot where it's hard for him to show as much as the guys I already consider elite. 

If Jacobs is the tier right below elite like I easily think he can be, it probably justifies where he was selected, even if any of us would have gone a different route. And I think even without him possessing elite measurables, long speed, and home running hitting ability like a couple of the elite guys do he can still be 90% of those types of players, and if he does that is worth the 24th pick and more importantly will make our offense a very hard offense to defend, even if defenses play Jacobs a particular way because he isn't a burner. We have already seen that Jacobs with good blocking has enough skill and athletic ability to put up numbers in the same range as the elite home run hitting backs, be near the top of the league in 20 and 40 yard runs, etc. Defenses play definitely contributed to that not being the case in 2020, but IMO not because they played him so differently or figured him out and can neutralize him because of it. Defenses played a part in his poor 2nd season because they consistently won the trenches, generated push with just their down lineman, and forced Jacobs to have to slow down, change direction, try and juke guys behind the LOS and by the time you do any of that in the NFL the rest of the defense is rallying to the ball. And that would have been the case for any RB in football last year. Go rewatch the games and see just how often our OL is immediately pushed back and giving ground. How rarely they are getting to the linebackers at the 2nd level of blowing up a safety or coner down the field. It happened a lot in 2019, it was RARE in 2020. 

And also, the constant shuffling of the OL, the lack of consistency and playing with the same guys at the same spots for even a string of 2, 3 or 4 games was a HUGE factor in the rushing offense IMO. Not only is their ability to do their job blocking so critical to a RB success, chemistry and familiarity with the OL and knowing how they play things, what you predict them to do, what they are looking for when setting up blocks and much more are HUGE for a RB finding success. And even outside of ability, we were constantly shuffling and reshaping the Ol with guys in and out of the lineup and being moved from this guard spot to the other or from guard to tackle, etc. That can't be discounted completely. 

[Mr Raider]

26 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

@Mr Raider You bring up some good points, but my point is defenses do play Jacobs differently than 2019. They are not afraid to shoot their gaps, because they will gamble Jacobs beating them, because Jacobs beating them likely doesn't involve a 30 yard run. Their lost gamble would probably result in a 15 yard gain. Shows up on tape often. Whereas with many other RB's, that lost gamble is 30+ yards, and possibly a 60 yard TD. 

With that said, we are on the same page. I still think the main issue is run blocking. But to say it's just run blocking is extremely irresponsible in my opinion. Teams adjust to rookies all the time. QB's, RB's, WR's, etc. Jacobs can still be Low-End Top 10 RB, but he's never going to be an elite guy with that long speed issue. However, Drake does seem like a perfect compliment, and I am excited to see them in action this year. 

I'm not discounting the possibility you're right completely. 

But I do think there's just as much a possibility, potentially higher, that defenses weren't playing Jacobs differently so much as they were playing our offensive line differently. Perhaps the shooting the gaps and those types of things were due to our OL playing worse. Perhaps it was due to the OL constantly being shuffled and seeing the same group out there for multiple weeks a rarity. Perhaps it was a byproduct of defenses seeing an OL struggling with on field ability AND seeing holes in communication and missed assignments due to guys playing in spots they weren't accustomed to, guys playing that hadn't seen much playing time, guys playing together with a bunch of guys they had no experience playing with, etc. I think that is the far bigger reason we saw teams playing us differently and attacking us in a different manner compared to 2019. 

In 2019 we had good injury luck on the OL. Our starters played long stretches, they played together, they had guys like Hudson and Gabe who had played together for a handful of years, both of those guys played a full season with Miller the season prior, Richie was manning one guard spot and has a decade of starting, high level NFL experience. Trent Brown was new but still had a couple of years of starting experience. And they got to play with eachother for most of the year. They got a full camp together full of practices. Transition to 2020 and you have Richie go down early, Brown got lazy and played a couple of games, Good has to come in and play guard some games and tackle for others, Simpson sees playing time as a rookie, Sam Young plays extensively at RT and has hardly any real experience long term let alone ability. And it's a covid year on top where none of the OL got any training camp time together, different practice amounts, etc. 

It made for enough challenge in terms of on field ability, but chemistry? With that amount of shuffling, shifting guys to different positions, no training camp or pre season, etc? To me that is a bigger factor in teams playing differently in run defense. You turn on the 2019 tape you see a cohesive unit that has literally 100s of games of starting experience, pro bowl level play from multiple positions, a ton of games playing together for 2 of the positions, you see a unit that has great chemistry and understanding of the NFL, with great communication and feel for one another. Turn on 2020 and you see a unit lacking chemistry, communication, familiarity, ravaged by injury preventing any sort of rhythm, rookies playing for the first time, guys playing certain positions for the first time ever, and multiple guys playing that have never shown even decent NFL caliber play. 

Yeah, I'm going to be aggressive and run blitz, shoot gaps, be exotic and make the OL show they can handle all that chaos, aggressiveness, and identify who blocks who on those exotic confusing looks. And the OL wasn't up to the task. In 2019 those guys have proven they can handle aggressive run defenses, crazy looks, guys shooting gaps, and not only handle them but let you hang yourself by gashing you turning the aggressiveness against you. 

I'm not saying Jacobs was ZERO factor in what you're saying, I am just of the opinion the OL was 80% of it and Jacobs dip in production was those teams attacking the OL in that way and the OL never making teams pay for it so every other team was going to make them prove that week would be different. 

Basically trout out the 2019 OL and Jacobs from last year, let the teams play the same way they did this year, do you think Jacobs production still dips? I personally dont. I think he's at least as productive as he was his rookie season. 

[Turnobili]

he keeps doin it lol

[BayRaider]

6 minutes ago, Turnobili said:

he keeps doin it lol

I mean I admire the dedication and time commitment. I use to write long posts like that on forums when I didn’t value time as much. Time is everything. I still will do a long writeup sometimes, but not as a reply to something, more of an initial analysis. 

[Jeremy408]

1 hour ago, Mr Raider said:

I don't really think I agree with this. 

I'm not saying Jacobs doesn't deserve any blame or that he's played perfectly. That obviously isn't the case. 

But I disagree on the notion that his lack of long speed was much of a factor in his efficiency taking a dip in year two. Nobody, including defensive coaches from opposing teams thought Jacobs was a long speed, super explosive home run hitting RB. Nobody feared that aspect of his game, even as a rookie. I don't know how much a RB long speed really plays into scheme and how defenses approach run defense to begin with anyway. Even the backs with exceptional long speed don't consistently churn out 20+ yard runs. Those backs may hit those runs more frequently than Jacobs, but we're still talking about most years the league leaders in rushes over 20 yards having 15-20 per year (usually right at 1 per game), the season leader in rushes over 40 yards is typically 4-7 total on the season. Not to mention a lot of those backs with exceptional long speed are far more feast or famine. Breaking off 10+ yard runs after being bottled up for long stretches of carries going for -1 to 1 or 2 yards. Obviously there are exceptions to that like Henry, but throughout history it does hold true fairly frequently. 

I also think I could make a pretty good argument that explosive runs of 10-50+ yards have more to do with how good your run blocking is. At least on the whole. Even if there are some exceptions. Most running backs in the NFL can break off 10-20 yard runs with relative ease when given great blocking. You give the majority of NFL backs enough blocking to allow them to build up and hit full speed getting past the LOS and line backers they will have enough speed, power, and shiftyness to make corners and safeties miss or run them over. 

But consistently hit even the backs with elite long speed at or behind the LOS or make them have to pause/change direction, etc, they will struggle mighty with efficiency. At the NFL level if your blocking is constantly losing ground and making your back stop or try and juke out a lineman or LB behind the LOS it doesn't matter that much (in terms of consistency) how physically great a RB is. Those with elite long speed may be able to make a handful more spectacular plays where they seemingly do it all and break off a big play, but a lot of those types of backs will have just as many or more plays where they try and do to much or try too much for the big play and have big negative plays. 

IMO the biggest cause for Jacobs drop in efficiency last year was the run blocking. I thought it was regularly poor. In terms of run blocking Hudson did take a step back last year IMO (he was still great at pass protection though), watch the highlights from this past year and the year prior, there was a huge dip in how frequently Hudson was able to pull and/or get to the second level, same with Gabe, Good isn't great at getting to the second level either, and TB went from a great run blocker in 2019 for Jacobs to rarely on the field, and Young isn't good at really anything, but he definitely isn't a great run blocker. The stats kind of bear that out as well. Jacobs was still great and near the top of the league in terms of yards after contact, YPC after contact, and forced missed tackles, yet saw a big dip in terms of his overall YPC. That seems like an obvious connection to me. He was getting hit in the backfield and at the LOS FAR more last year compared to 2019, and a back that isn't as powerful, strong and shifty as Jacobs would have been even worse in terms of YPC because Jacobs doesn't get hit and fall backwards very often. Jacobs also wasn't some home run hitter that lost all his game breaking speed between year one and year two. Yet in 2019 he was top 5 (4th among running backs) in the entire NFL in terms of 20+ yard rushes with 8 behind only Lamar Jackson, Henry, Chubb, and Marlon Mack. Yet in 2020 that number fell to only 3 all season. And in 2019 he had 2 40+ yard rushes which was top 10 in the NFL and the league leader was McCaffrey with 4 all year. 

Jacob's deep speed would be a real thing in terms of limiting his game, but only really to where it would be a valid reason why he will never lead the league in 40+ yard runs, but in that area his lack of deep speed is basically going to be about 2-4 less of those runs over a 16 game season. Jacobs has some issues, the biggest probably being that so far he hasn't answered with a resounding YES that he can take the pounding of being a feature full time back without a ton of need for a good #2 back like guys like Henry can. He didn't do it in college and he has throughout two seasons been banged up pretty regularly and looked injured or faded down the stretch. He also hasn't shown that he can be a great asset in the passing game. He has had a few drops, and the staff said coming into the year making him a bigger part in that area of the offense was a top priority, and it didn't really happen last year. He has shown some ability there but not a lot. Is it because he isn't great at doing it? Is it a lack of creativity or willingness from the staff? Is it because he is leaned on so much in the running game and we don't want him getting even more touches? That is a discussion I could go multiple ways on. Jacobs dip in production being due to teams playing him differently because they figured him out as a non elite long speed runner? I don't buy that for even a second. 

What I saw from him his first 12 games of his rookie season, and last year in the handful of games we clearly won in the trenches last season tell me he has every necessary trait to be one of the elite pure runners in the NFL. I think a lot of other backs that aren't Henry, Chubb, etc would have had trouble averaging over 4 a carry on our team last year as well. Now does Jacobs have the skill set to be an elite running back overall? I haven't seen enough in terms of his pass catching and versatility to say yes I believe he can. I think 95% of running backs rely on their blocking to have a high and consistent YPC, the elite ones more often can make something out of nothing and will make an extra handful of plays backs like Jacobs can't. I think Jacobs regularly showed last year how good of a runner he is/can be just by consistently finding a way to get back to the LOS or turn runs into 3-4 yard postives. Because it took a lot of skill to not have FAR more negative runs than Jacobs had. 

And lastly I think having a super high end back up like Drake to be able to take carries from Jacobs without making the offense immensely more one dimensional, a back capable of explosive plays and taking over in some goal line situations without sacrificing significant ability to find the end zone, and capable of catching passes will make Jacobs the best version of the player he is. Even most elite backs don't see the type of total reliance Jacobs has seen his first 2 years (especially early in the year when Booker was seen as lucky to have made the roster and was Jacobs primary backup). Even elite ones struggle when asked to do everything, all the time, at Jacobs rate, and stay healthy all season. 

The thing that will decide if Jacobs is thrown back in the mix of the casuals top 8 or so backs will come down to the OL and if they can start getting a push more often. I don't buy for a second defenses found the magic way to play him and make him not very efficient. It was the same story as it has always been for the vast majority of great running teams in NFL history... Their guys far more frequently pushed our guys back and hit our back in the backfield, our wins were more stalemates. Jacobs can be near elite, but he will need his OL to play well. 

All it took was one season for people to jump ship on Jacobs lol

[drfrey13]

23 minutes ago, Mr Raider said:

Basically trout out the 2019 OL and Jacobs from last year, let the teams play the same way they did this year, do you think Jacobs production still dips? I personally dont. I think he's at least as productive as he was his rookie season. 

Let me start out by saying I like Jacobs and how he plays.  However he had some red flags that people in this forum pointed out before the draft and there are at least a few that think we reached with the pick.  Instead of comparing if we had better run  blocking why not compare the backs that had the same run blocking and were more efficient than him.  Richard and Booker both averaged more yards per carry and averaged close to the same TDs per carry.  Now you can say he had a larger work load which is true but that leads back to the red flags some of us spoke about before during and after we made the pick.  He will most likely struggle because of his lack of workload in college.  Also the lack of speed does hurt his average because when the hole is there he will get less yards on average as defenders converge on him.  Now I am not saying to get rid of him but he needs another back like Drake to reach his ceiling.  Of RBs that carried the ball at least 150 times Jacobs ranks 19 in yards per carry.  Like I said I like Jacobs but I did not think he was worth a first round pick but he was the type of player we needed to help Carr.

[MrOaktown_56]

Interesting DVOA is being brought up for the offense but not Carr. Carr was 7th/8th in DVOA last year IIRC.

[Turnobili]

19 minutes ago, Jeremy408 said:

All it took was one season for people to jump ship on Jacobs lol

i have no problem with jacobs the player, and i dont think last year was a result of his play getting worse.

i just hated taking a RB in the first round in that draft. really thought we should have taken Sweat at 24. i've been PFF-pilled when it comes to RBs

Edited May 19, 2021 by Turnobili