With the 25th pick, the Jaguars select Travis Etienne

[pwny]

2 minutes ago, .Buzz said:

Deme and Wigg were all over it too. Posted this yesterday.

Urban all but told us he wanted him at 25 tbh. He made it incredibly clear that he wanted a truly fast RB, and someone you can play all over the field and use in multiple roles; running, catching out of the backfield, lining up in the slot, etc. He basically wanted someone that he could use like Harvin and Samuel as that jack of all trades piece, where he can design up a new weird concept for any game and have a guy that can execute it to catch the opponent off guard.

[KhanYouDigIt]

 

[KhanYouDigIt]

 

enjoy

[.Buzz]

Just now, KhanYouDigIt said:

 

enjoy

70. Touchdowns.

[Adrenaline_Flux]

Yeah. The people upset at this are just looking at his listed position and not actually thinking about how he'll be used or the value he offers. 

[KhanYouDigIt]

9 minutes ago, .Buzz said:

70. Touchdowns.

The man doesn’t get caught from behind.

His chemistry and familiarity with Trev will be big.

[.Buzz]

2 minutes ago, KhanYouDigIt said:

The man doesn’t get caught from behind.

His chemistry and familiarity with Trev will be big.

 

[.Buzz]

Btw, Buffalo likely would've taken Etienne apparently. TB would've been a real possibility too.

[Adrenaline_Flux]

Yeah, sounds like Etienne was the right move. The desired alternatives based off discussions heading into today would have been Trevon Moehrig and Christian Barmore and both are still available. Then there's also JOK and Teven Jenkins who may not fill as pressing of holes as those two, but have undeniable value at this point. We took Etienne and probably will still get a guy at #33 we were considering at #25. 

[Tugboat]

2 hours ago, .Buzz said:

"I'm upset by this."

See...i may not agree completely with Etienne at 25, but it's kinda different when it's like this, where they clearly have an actual plan.  It's not just grabbing a random guy because they think he might be good.  It's like...this is a multiple faceted role that we think is important to what we want to do offensively, and this is a player we've targeted from the start because we think he's perfectly suited to it, and has obvious chemistry with our most important player.

We'll see how it actually works out, and the proof is always out on the field.  But it's so much easier to stomach, when they can convey that they is a plan for it.

 

1 hour ago, KhanYouDigIt said:

The man doesn’t get caught from behind.

His chemistry and familiarity with Trev will be big.

Yeah.  That home-run threat is important as a complement to a backfield that really didn't have any of that.

I still kinda fundamentally believe that getting the OLine in order is key to getting anything out of a RB.  But it's easy to see what they're thinking here, and there's still some solid OLine prospects to go out and get anyway.

 

2 hours ago, pwny said:

The Bucs’ only need was a receiving back. Etienne was almost assuredly going to be the pick there had we passed him. He wasn’t making it to 33. But all the other targets we likely had did.

It definitely looks like they read this correctly.  If he was a "must get" target...this is the way it had to be.

 

1 hour ago, Adrenaline_Flux said:

Yeah, sounds like Etienne was the right move. The desired alternatives based off discussions heading into today would have been Trevon Moehrig and Christian Barmore and both are still available. Then there's also JOK and Teven Jenkins who may not fill as pressing of holes as those two, but have undeniable value at this point. We took Etienne and probably will still get a guy at #33 we were considering at #25. 

And this element really just seals it.  Most of the other guys i'd have preferred at 25 are still going to be there for us at 33.  So i'm an idiot, and hopefully they can grab someone cool at 33 and the "value" will basically look like a wash to me...but smartly executed in the sense that if he was a target they really felt they needed, this was clearly the only way they were going to do that.  And still get great potential "value" on the whole after all, as long as they going go wild with an off the board 33 pick.

[Uncle Buck]

Travis Etienne really does remind me of Percy.  Just watch this video and pretend in your mind that Etienne is a receiver and you can see that their running styles are very similar.  It makes sense why Urban wanted to get him, and it isn't hard to imagine him being a big part of our offense.

 

[Charles]

4 hours ago, LinderFournette said:

Someone check on @Charlescuz I think he might have destroyed a tv

I refuse to be upset on the day we finally get a franchise qb.

But, yeah, not a fan of the pick .

-charles 

[Adrenaline_Flux]

Players still on their team from first 32 picks (not counting players who retired with same team or who left then came back) 
2010-2018

2010: 2/32
2011: 6/32
2012: 5/32
2013: 1/32
2014: 6/32
2015: 6/32
2016: 6/32
2017: 16/32
2018: 28/32

This isn't perfect since there is so much situationally within the league and roster management that has to be looked at contextually. I believe there are 4 from pre-2010.

Total Players by Years with Team (counting 2021)

4+ - 80
5+ - 52
6+ - 36
7+ - 30
8+ - 24 
9+ - 18
10+ - 17
11+ - 12
12+ - 6

Years with drafting team for 1st round RBs (or top 3 RBs) by draft class
2008-2017

2008: 7, 10, 4, 5, 6
2009: 5, 5, 4
2010: 5, 5, 3
2011: 8, 3, 4
2012: 1, 6, 2
2013: 8, 6, 2
2014: 4, 3, 1 (no RB selected until Round 3)
2015: 5, 5, 4
2016: Only 1 not with team - Kenyan Drake left Dolphins in 2019
2017: Only 1 not with team - Leonard Fournette left Jaguars in 2020

Average years with team for RBs from 2008-2015 = 6.38 years

1/6 of the total in 2016 still left is a RB (Ezekiel Elliott). Next RB outside the 1st round is Derrick Henry who is still with the team.
2/16 of the total in 2017 still left are RBs (Christian McCaffrey & Dalvin Cook)

Over the past 5 years, 7/11 First Team All Pro RBs have been from the 1st round. 3/4 of the others have been among the first 3 RBs taken in the draft. The lone exception is David Johnson in 2016 who was the 7th RB taken in 2015 (3rd rounder). The only Second Team All Pro in that time taken outside the 1st round and top 3 RBs is Alvin Kamara who was the 5th RB taken overall in 2017 in the 3rd round. 

In 2020, there were 19 RBs drafted. 15 taken in the first 4 rounds. 15/19 are still listed as with the team that drafted them. 20 rookies in 2020 had 500+ scrimmage yards. 9/20 were RBs. They were:

Jonathan Taylor - 1,468 - 2.41 RB3
James Robinson - 1,414 - UDFA
Clyde Edwards-Helaire - 1,100 - 1.32 RB1
Antonio Gibson - 1,042 - 3.66 RB7
J.K. Dobbins - 925 - 2.55 RB5
D'Andre Swift - 878 - 2.35 RB2
Cam Akers - 748 - 2.52 RB4
Zack Moss - 576 - 3.86 RB10
Joshua Kelly - 502 - 4.112 RB12

The top 6 of the aforementioned were in the top 10 total of scrimmage yards (1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, 8th, 10th). The top 5 RBs all had 500+ scrimmage yards and were taken between picks 32 to 55. RBs 6-12 produced 3 RBs and 6-12 were taken between picks 62 and 112. RBs 13-19 produced 0 and were all taken after 112 in the 4th round. Then you have James Robinson who broke out as an UDFA RB. 

Out of the top 25 overall producing scrimmage yard leaders in 2020, RBs accounted for 12 of the slots. 

Derrick Henry - 2016 RB2 2.45
Dalvin Cook - 2017 RB3 2.41
Alvin Kamara - 2017 RB5 3.67
David Montgomery - 2019 RB4 3.73
Jonathan Taylor - 2020 RB3 2.41
Aaron Jones - 2017 RB19 5.182
James Robinson - 2020 UDFA
Ezekiel Elliott - 2016 RB1 1.4
Josh Jacobs - 2019 RB1 1.24
Nick Chubb - 2018 RB4 2.35
Kareem Hunt - 2017 RB6 3.86
Melvin Gordon - 2015 RB2 1.15

tbh I don't know where exactly I was going with this post when I started, but it's been fun looking up all this different information. I think my takeaways between looking up this information and what I've anecdotally observed is this:

Though RBs can be found later in the drafted and undrafted, like with any position, you're going to miss on many more than you will hit on. Also like with any position, you're much more likely to hit on the position when you select one earlier in the draft. Considering the scrimmage yards contribution by RBs in 2020, both relative to rookies and relative to the rest of the league, you're far more better off trying to take a RB early if your goal is to have a RB that can be a difference-maker.

When looking at all first rounders (well, top 32 selections), if your goal is to have them play past the first contract - ie 6+ years - then right now only 36 players are projected to do so in 2021. Only 6 from the 2016 NFL Draft's first round are entering their 6th year in the league with their original drafting team. For me, these numbers discredit the argument against RBs in the first round when it comes to "they're not likely to make it to their second contract" --- by nature of the league, not many players are regardless of position for a multitude of reasons. However, when looking at first round and top 3 RB selections from 2008-2015, on average, top selected RBs did last 6+ years with their original drafting team. This is far from a perfect apples to applies comparison though, admittedly. I think based off of all this information, I would still be hesitant taking a RB super high in the draft (ie: Top 10) unless they were a special talent; I think of recent top 10 RBs that guys like Gurley & Zeke, for example, fall in the category of having been worth top 10 selections based off of the contributions they made to their drafting team. All that said, having a backfield where the primary focuses are Etienne as well as James Robinson should help extend their longevity with the team. James Robinson can be spelled by Etienne and whoever else to help preserve him a bit (similar to how Thomas Jones was initially a bellcow RB before becoming a renowned tandem with several different RBs later in his career, though this was of course a different time in the league) and Etienne won't have as much RB tread on his tires early in his career + will get plenty of work as a receiver out of the backfield which should help his longevity as well and give him a higher likelihood to make it to a second contract with us assuming he performs as expected.

When it comes to top RB prospects who maybe don't fall in that category though, I think there's enough evidence to show that they ARE worth taking in the first round, if nothing else, for the 5th year option. I think this makes the ideal spot to take them as the back quarter of the first round because you're 1) getting that 5th year option and 2) in the area where a lot of the fringe first round talent blends together; there generally isn't as much of a prospect gap from 24 to, let's say, 42 for example compared to like 16 to 24. Spotrac has Travis Etienne's projected 2021 cap hit as $2,345,110 which puts him as the 30th highest RB cap it in 2021. As far as team spending goes, this will bring Jacksonville from the 5th lowest RB/FB spending in the league to about middle of the pack. Cap-wise, this still makes sense. As long as Travis Etienne has 800+ scrimmage yards, which he should since Urban Meyer has stated he wants to be top 8 in the league in rushing + wants to use Etienne as a receiver both out of the backfield and lined up as WR, this is more than worth the value right off the bat. When you look at the top 5 RBs from last year, 4 of them produced 800+ yards from scrimmage (they were 4 of the 6) and they went within the first 55 picks (with the RB3 going 2.41). When you factor in the talent level of both Etienne and Harris and factor in Etienne's potential to still have plenty of tread on the tires based on what his usage is going to look like, and his lack of an injury history, it makes sense to take him in the back half of the first.

Hopefully this has all been coherent because it's almost 3am and I've been working on this way longer than I anticipated. Thanks for coming to my seminar. 

[DuvalsKing]

5 hours ago, KhanYouDigIt said:

 

🧢 

[JaguarCrazy2832]

Hate it, I really do. Nothing against the player but when you look at position of value and about making the biggest improvement at a given position this misses both by a long shot

Would've loved to get Barmore, Moehrig, Moore etc, this was a foolish choice.