2021 GB Draft: Realistic Expectations, per statistics

[TransientTexan]

Expected hit-rates per combination of draft-slot and position, over course of career.

Sample used: draft classes of 2006 thru 2013. Looked at each slot +/- 8 picks (for example, for #29, I looked at CB's taken between #21 and #37). Sorted into tiers with the help of PFF grade/snaps & PFR. 

 

#29- CB's (18 total players)

7 Pro-Bowlers (38.9%), 1 decent-starter (5.6%), 6 subpar-starter/mediocre-depth (33.3%), 4 complete busts* (22.2%)

PB examples: Devin McCourty, Brandon Flowers, Desmond Trufant, Vontae Davis, Darius Slay, Johnathan Joseph, Xavier Rhodes

#62- IOL (9 total players)

4 Pro-Bowlers (44.4%), 3 avg-starters (33.3%), 2 subpar-starter/depth (22.2%), 0 complete busts (0.0%)

PB examples: Ryan Kalil (C), Rodney Hudson (C), Kelechi Osemele (G), Larry Warford (G)

#85- WR's (32 total players)

3 Pro-Bowlers (9.4%), 4 good-starters (12.5%), 7 mediocre-depth (21.9%), 18 complete busts (56.3%)

PB examples: T.Y. Hilton, Mike Wallace, Emmanuel Sanders

 

Now for the lottery-ticket picks:

#142- IOL (12 players)

1 Pro-Bowler (8.3%), 1 Longterm Avg Starter (8.3%), 1 poor starter/depth (8.3%), 9 complete busts (75.0%)

PB example: Josh Sitton

#173- DL (7 players)

0 Pro-Bowlers (0%), 2 bad-starter/depth (28.6%), 5 complete busts (71.4%)

#178- CB (11 players)

1 special-teams Pro-Bowler (9.1%), 1 Longterm Avg Starter (9.1%), 1 Longterm poor starter (9.1%), 1 poor depth (9.1%), 7 complete busts (63.6%)

PB example: Justin Bethel

#214- IOL (9 players)

1 poor depth (11.1%), 8 complete busts (88.9%)

#220- ILB (15 players)

1 mediocre starter (6.7%), 3 poor depth (20.0%), 11 complete busts (61.5%)

#256- RB (13 players)

1 good starter (7.7%), 1 avg starter (7.7%), 3 poor depth (23.1%), 8 complete busts (61.5%)

 

*complete busts are players who are out of the league after their 5th year, or earlier. 

*There were only 3 centers in the #62 range, so I expanded to include guards, to increase sample size. The 3 Centers were Ryan Kalil, Rodney Hudson, and Samson Satele. 

*These evaluations are based on whole career, but it bears remembering that, even for the eventual Pro Bowler or decent-starters, most struggle in the rookie year. 

Chance of playing 500+ snaps in rookie year: #29 CB 8/18= 44.4%, #62 IOL 4/9= 44.4%, #85 WR 5/32= 15.6%,

#142 IOL 1/12= 8.3%, #173 DL 0/7= 0%, #178 CB 1/11= 9.1%, #214 IOL 1/9= 11.1%, #220 ILB 0/15= 0%, #256 RB 0/13= 0%

 

Edited May 2, 2021 by TransientTexan
Added Day-3 picks

[squire12]

5 hours ago, TransientTexan said:

Expected hit-rates per combination of draft-slot and position, over course of career.

Sample used: draft classes of 2006 thru 2013. Looked at each slot +/- 8 picks (for example, for #29, I looked at CB's taken between #21 and #37). Sorted into tiers with the help of PFF grade/snaps & PFR. 

 

#29- CB's (18 total players)

7 Pro-Bowlers (38.9%), 1 decent-starter (5.6%), 6 subpar-starter/mediocre-depth (33.3%), 4 complete busts* (22.2%)

PB examples: Devin McCourty, Brandon Flowers, Desmond Trufant, Vontae Davis, Darius Slay, Johnathan Joseph, Xavier Rhodes

#62- IOL (9 total players)

4 Pro-Bowlers (44.4%), 3 avg-starters (33.3%), 2 subpar-starter/depth (22.2%), 0 complete busts (0.0%)

PB examples: Ryan Kalil (C), Rodney Hudson (C), Kelechi Osemele (G), Larry Warford (G)

#85- WR's (32 total players)

3 Pro-Bowlers (9.4%), 4 good-starters (12.5%), 7 mediocre-depth (21.9%), 18 complete busts (56.3%)

PB examples: T.Y. Hilton, Mike Wallace, Emmanuel Sanders

 

*complete busts are players who are out of the league after their 5th year, or earlier. 

*There were only 3 centers in the #62 range, so I expanded to include guards, to increase sample size. The 3 Centers were Ryan Kalil, Rodney Hudson, and Samson Satele. 

*These evaluations are based on whole career, but it bears remembering that, even for the eventual Pro Bowler or decent-starters, most struggle in the rookie year. 

Chance of playing 500+ snaps in rookie year: #29 CB 8/18= 44.4%, #62 IOL 4/9= 44.4%, #85 WR 5/32= 15.6%

 

Interesting look at things.  Thanks for putting it together.

 

Not all picks will hit.   Busts happen.  

On the 500 snaps things, the later in the round generally means better teams wiless glaring holes. Fair amount of picks are for 2+ years out roster views.

[pacman5252]

Yeah, makes sense.... most drafts with normal draft capital, you get 1-2 second contract players. The odds are one of these guys injury busts, 1 is just meh, and one is good.

With that said, this is the exception 🍺

Edited May 1, 2021 by pacman5252

[TransientTexan]

4 hours ago, squire12 said:

Fair amount of picks are for 2+ years out roster views.

Yea, I’m just pointing that out for those who might not be aware. I see many pencilling him in as starter from day 1. It could certainly happen, but there’s still coinflip odds it doesn’t. The best C’s listed in the samples above (Kalil & Hudson) became studs, but only had 100-200 snaps as rookies. 

[incognito_man]

My personal take on bust likelihood before knowing this:

Myers <<< Rodgers << Stokes

[chillparsi1]

9 hours ago, TransientTexan said:

Expected hit-rates per combination of draft-slot and position, over course of career.

Sample used: draft classes of 2006 thru 2013. Looked at each slot +/- 8 picks (for example, for #29, I looked at CB's taken between #21 and #37). Sorted into tiers with the help of PFF grade/snaps & PFR. 

 

#29- CB's (18 total players)

7 Pro-Bowlers (38.9%), 1 decent-starter (5.6%), 6 subpar-starter/mediocre-depth (33.3%), 4 complete busts* (22.2%)

PB examples: Devin McCourty, Brandon Flowers, Desmond Trufant, Vontae Davis, Darius Slay, Johnathan Joseph, Xavier Rhodes

#62- IOL (9 total players)

4 Pro-Bowlers (44.4%), 3 avg-starters (33.3%), 2 subpar-starter/depth (22.2%), 0 complete busts (0.0%)

PB examples: Ryan Kalil (C), Rodney Hudson (C), Kelechi Osemele (G), Larry Warford (G)

#85- WR's (32 total players)

3 Pro-Bowlers (9.4%), 4 good-starters (12.5%), 7 mediocre-depth (21.9%), 18 complete busts (56.3%)

PB examples: T.Y. Hilton, Mike Wallace, Emmanuel Sanders

 

*complete busts are players who are out of the league after their 5th year, or earlier. 

*There were only 3 centers in the #62 range, so I expanded to include guards, to increase sample size. The 3 Centers were Ryan Kalil, Rodney Hudson, and Samson Satele. 

*These evaluations are based on whole career, but it bears remembering that, even for the eventual Pro Bowler or decent-starters, most struggle in the rookie year. 

Chance of playing 500+ snaps in rookie year: #29 CB 8/18= 44.4%, #62 IOL 4/9= 44.4%, #85 WR 5/32= 15.6%

 

This is awesome thank you. This needs to be plastered yearly to remind people that busts happen at all spots and you can't let former busts make you go "you don't draft a _____ in the ____ round"

Edited May 1, 2021 by chillparsi1

[TransientTexan]

Added the odds for the Day-3 picks. 

[Joe]

Once again, we did pretty well for ourselves on Day 3. McDuffie might be an upgrade over Summers, Jean-Charles could crack the final 53 as a ST, and we drafted a couple nice developmental guys as well. 

[R T]

The realistic expectations for the rookie O-Linemen is to supply coffee and donuts daily for the veterans in the morning position group meetings. 

[Refugee]

8 minutes ago, R T said:

The realistic expectations for the rookie O-Linemen is to supply coffee and donuts daily for the veterans in the morning position group meetings. 

I think that’s mostly true, but if you grab a C in the 2nd, he has pretty high expectations that he should get into the line soon to immediately. We nabbed Tretter and Linsley much later and put them right into the fire. Both responded well and are still playing top notch ball elsewhere. 

[Scoremore]

Good work.  Just goes to show how hard it is to find those hidden gems.  We always get are hopes up after the draft that every player is a great pick and will contribue in a meaningful way.  Always gotta temper enthusiasm as you never know who will hit or bust.  2-3 starters that's what we are looking for.  Picked 9 guys.