NFL Snooze News: Volume Four, Por Favor

[swede700]

41 minutes ago, Cearbhall said:

This morning I pulled up on OTC the contract details for Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.  In short, it is apparent that Lamar Jackson's agent (himself) got a way better deal than Josh Allen's agent.

Both QBs were selected in 2018, but Allen was draft higher in the first round so after their slotted rookie deals Allen had a considerable head start in career earnings --  $21.1MM to $9.5MM.

Given their current contracts, through 2027 Allen will have earned $286MM and will be under contract for 2028 for $15.5MM.  At that same point, Lamar Jackson will have earned $292.5MM and be a free agent in 2028. 

Josh Allen, after the extension he signed is under contract until 2028.  Lamar Jackson, after signing his new contract is under contract only until 2027 -- a fact that betrays the argument that Jackson would be free to sign a new contract earlier had he earlier signed an extension.

Not to be overlooked, Josh Allen's contract will give him very little leverage in negotiations for his third contract compared to the leverage Jackson's contract will give him in negotiations for his third contract.

Agents, and people shilling for agents, are doing everything they can to spin Jackson's decision to act as his own agent in a negative light, but ignoring the noise and looking at the numbers Jackson has done far better than Josh Allen, a QB that was drafted in the same year in a higher draft position that many league observers believe to be the superior QB.

It's fair to feel that way, but we'll also have to see who has the better team around him...right now, I believe that it is clearly Allen. 

I'm not sure I buy the leverage aspect you're talking about, unless you're talking about the no-tag option.  If he plays well, Allen is probably going to get another extension before Lamar does again, so he'll more than make up the difference that he falls behind come 2025 when his cap number his $56M.  In 2026, Lamar's cap number hits $75M, so we'll have to see how that impacts the team around him.

I think Jackson did fine being patient waiting for the market to alter since Allen signed, but there are some things technically that Lamar could have done better at. He has no performance bonuses in his contract, which Allen does have, so Allen could make $30M more, Lamar cannot make anything more. 

 

Edited May 9, 2023 by swede700

[SemperFeist]

One area where is think Jackson really missed out on having an agent was having someone to help use other teams to leverage the Ravens in to giving Jackson what he wanted. 

Jackson got a status quo contract. His contract wasn’t much different than Hurts’, or Murray’s. Once Hurts signed his contract the precedent was set, and there was really nothing left to hold up an agreement between Baltimore and Jackson. 

But, if Jackson truly wanted a fully guaranteed deal in the model of Watson’s contract, having an agent may have helped him get it. Even if it wasn’t from Baltimore. 

[Cearbhall]

47 minutes ago, swede700 said:

I'm not sure I buy the leverage aspect you're talking about, unless you're talking about the no-tag option.

Jackson's contract all but forces the Ravens to sign a new deal with Jackson in 2026. Given the numbers they'll be faced with if they don't, Jackson would have a huge amount of leverage in those discussions. Sticking with the current numbers would be such a bad option for the Ravens that they'll have to be coming to Jackson asking him to work something out to help their situation.

Allen's contract will also need to be renegotiated, likely by 2025.  When that time comes, they'll be starting from a position where they already have Allen locked up for four years at $160MM. All they need to do is a simple restructure.  If Allen wants anything more he'll be the one coming to the table demanding a new contract.

One team will be starting renegotiations owing $52MM per year with only two years of player control at that rate versus the other team negotiation from a position of strength having 4 years of player control locked in at $40MM per year. Of those two teams, one has far more control than the other, and the team with far more control will be the Buffalo Bills.

If both players are playing at the same level heading into that situation, Jackson will have a huge leg up.

Edited May 9, 2023 by Cearbhall

[swede700]

42 minutes ago, Cearbhall said:

Jackson's contract all but forces the Ravens to sign a new deal with Jackson in 2026. Given the numbers they'll be faced with if they don't, Jackson would have a huge amount of leverage in those discussions. Sticking with the current numbers would be such a bad option for the Ravens that they'll have to be coming to Jackson asking him to work something out to help their situation.

Allen's contract will also need to be renegotiated, likely by 2025.  When that time comes, they'll be starting from a position where they already have Allen locked up for four years at $160MM. All they need to do is a simple restructure.  If Allen wants anything more he'll be the one coming to the table demanding a new contract.

One team will be starting renegotiations owing $52MM per year with only two years of player control at that rate versus the other team negotiation from a position of strength having 4 years of player control locked in at $40MM per year. Of those two teams, one has far more control than the other, and the team with far more control will be the Buffalo Bills.

If both players are playing at the same level heading into that situation, Jackson will have a huge leg up.

Thanks...personally, I believe that Allen is going to be in a better position, because he relies less on his feet to be a QB than Jackson does.  People can tell me that Lamar's an accurate passer from the pocket, which is fine, but he relies on his feet for his overall game more than he does passing from the pocket.  As PA has put it on KFAN, he's a runner who can pass moreso than a passer who can run...therefore, ultimately, I believe Allen will have a longer career than Lamar, so likely will end up with more money.  Lamar does need to get his money now, because he'll likely only have one more big extension in him (at least IMO), while Allen may have at least 2, despite them being only 8 months apart in age.  

[VikeManDan]

Will be interesting to see how Lamar performs in what I assume will be a more pass-heavy offense with Roman out and Monken in at OC.

[Cearbhall]

15 minutes ago, swede700 said:

Thanks...personally, I believe that Allen is going to be in a better position, because he relies less on his feet to be a QB than Jackson does.  People can tell me that Lamar's an accurate passer from the pocket, which is fine, but he relies on his feet for his overall game more than he does passing from the pocket.  As PA has put it on KFAN, he's a runner who can pass moreso than a passer who can run...therefore, ultimately, I believe Allen will have a longer career than Lamar, so likely will end up with more money.  Lamar does need to get his money now, because he'll likely only have one more big extension in him (at least IMO), while Allen may have at least 2, despite them being only 8 months apart in age.  

I also believe that Allen is a better QB and will therefore end up with more money.  My discussion here was limited to analysis of the contract. For purposes of the analysis, I tried not to factor in the skill level of the QB and looked at the contracts as if they (the two players) were ranked the same.

That many believe Allen is the better QB only reinforces that Jackson did better in contract negotiations than Allen.

 

Edited May 9, 2023 by Cearbhall

[JDBrocks]

43 minutes ago, swede700 said:

 As PA has put it on KFAN, he's a runner who can pass moreso than a passer who can run...

This is such a tired take. Watch the games, don't listen to PA. Lamar Jackson executed the offense that was installed Baltimore. Yes, they used his running ability as a significant part of the offense because it's an insanely effective part of his game. It would be negligent not to. He's a great pocket passer, both from an analytics and film standpoint.

He led the league in TD passes from the pocket and overall TD passes in 2019 with Mark Andrews and Hollywood Brown as his best targets. More than Brees, Brady, Rodgers, Mahomes, etc. You don't do that in the NFL as a "runner who can pass".

[swede700]

22 minutes ago, JDBrocks said:

This is such a tired take. Watch the games, don't listen to PA. Lamar Jackson executed the offense that was installed Baltimore. Yes, they used his running ability as a significant part of the offense because it's an insanely effective part of his game. It would be negligent not to. He's a great pocket passer, both from an analytics and film standpoint.

He led the league in TD passes from the pocket and overall TD passes in 2019 with Mark Andrews and Hollywood Brown as his best targets. More than Brees, Brady, Rodgers, Mahomes, etc. You don't do that in the NFL as a "runner who can pass".

2019 was 4 years ago.  Since then, he's only played 24 out of 33 games, his Y/A has gone down and he hasn't passed for more than 3K yds in any season while his TDs have gone down and INTs up.  In fact, his TDs over the last 2 seasons combined were less than 2019, while his INTs have more than tripled. 

You can try and justify it all you want, but he hasn't gotten better.  He's a good QB, but not one I'd want on my team, as right now, he's basically a one-hit wonder as he hasn't been able to get even close to duplicating that 2019 season.

Edited May 9, 2023 by swede700

[JDBrocks]

27 minutes ago, swede700 said:

2019 was 4 years ago.  Since then, he's only played 24 out of 33 games, his Y/A has gone down and he hasn't passed for more than 3K yds in any season while his TDs have gone down and INTs up.  In fact, his TDs over the last 2 seasons combined were less than 2019, while his INTs have more than tripled. 

You can try and justify it all you want, but he hasn't gotten better.  He's a good QB, but not one I'd want on my team, as right now, he's basically a one-hit wonder as he hasn't been able to get even close to duplicating that 2019 season.

That's not what you said, nor was it what I was responding to. You said he's a runner who can pass. Offensive design, supporting cast, injuries etc. have all impacted his statistical performance.

He's still not what you called him.

[swede700]

47 minutes ago, JDBrocks said:

That's not what you said, nor was it what I was responding to. You said he's a runner who can pass. Offensive design, supporting cast, injuries etc. have all impacted his statistical performance.

He's still not what you called him.

Well, they did modify the offense to suit his strength, which is running.  They didn't make him fit the offense that they were running under Flacco, which was more like 60% passing...this one is about 50-50. 

I do agree that the supporting cast does make a difference, but really, they've never had a strong receiving corps.  Back in 2016, they were running out guys like an ancient Steve Smith, Breshad Perriman and Mike Wallace.  In their Super Bowl season, they had Anquan Boldin, Jacoby Jones, and Torrey Smith.  Arguably, they should have a better crop of WRs this year with OBJ, Bateman, Agholor and Flowers.  We'll just have to see how it pans out.

I think you can say that PA is maybe overstating it a bit, but I believe the description is somewhat accurate, in that he's not going to be a pass-first QB no matter what scheme you put him in.  Maybe he can be a Randall Cunningham later in his career, who clearly did change from the running guy he was in Philly.  But, he could also be just a better version of Vick, who never really did become a passer later in his career. 

[PrplChilPill]

He's also not paying 8-10% to an agency......but this seems like a lot of nitpicking on both sides. Dude got a massive deal. 

[swede700]

8 minutes ago, PrplChilPill said:

He's also not paying 8-10% to an agency......but this seems like a lot of nitpicking on both sides. Dude got a massive deal. 

Ultimately, it is just nitpicking by me, so I agree.  His mother and siblings will never have to work again, as likely will his children, if he ever does have any.  I applaud him for that, but as I said the other day, I hope he has a financial advisor at least.  🤣

[wcblack34]

28 minutes ago, PrplChilPill said:

He's also not paying 8-10% to an agency......but this seems like a lot of nitpicking on both sides. Dude got a massive deal. 

No one pays 8-10% to an agency. Fees are capped at 3% and top flight players almost always get a discount on that. 

[Cearbhall]

14 hours ago, swede700 said:

Ultimately, it is just nitpicking by me, so I agree.  His mother and siblings will never have to work again, as likely will his children, if he ever does have any.  I applaud him for that, but as I said the other day, I hope he has a financial advisor at least.  🤣

I hope he invests the earnings from his talents wisely.  Maximizing earnings is a key component, but no amount of earnings will matter if he can't learn to live on some fraction of what he makes (during a career in an occupation that is short no matter how good he is as a pocket passer) and then invest the leftover dollars wisely.

There is no doubt that a good financial advisor could give him good advice that could save him beaucoup dollars, but that only matters to the extent he follows the advice -- something people don't automatically do just because they pay for the good advice.

In the end of the day, if Jackson can handle his finances as well as he was able to handle his contract negotiations he'll be more than fine without a financial advisor. He knocked it out of the park negotiating his contract IMO so it does seem like a tall order to expect an ability to handle his finances equally well.

[Ozzy]

19 hours ago, VikeManDan said:

Will be interesting to see how Lamar performs in what I assume will be a more pass-heavy offense with Roman out and Monken in at OC.

Monken is a great playcaller and is a huge reason Georgia won the last two National Titles, he varies his offenses extremely well and keeps teams off balance.  At Georgia they dominated with those multiple TE groups and a lot of motion and a lot of throwing to the running backs.  With Flowers drafted, a healthy Dobbins and Beckham coming in it should be a much improved offense!

 

The D might not be as good though without Peters at corner and they need an edge rusher to develop but at least they got Roquan Smith who is great for them.  Ojabo, Bowser or Oweh really have to breakout for them though because those edge rushers need improvement.  They have Kyle Hamilton a super star safety so that should help with the loss of Peters at least.