swede700 Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 3 15 hours ago, Krauser said: You say mediocre, but a Prescott-level QB is good enough to win with. The team that might've made this kind of Moneyball calculation and moved on from a successful starter was the Rams, but they paid Goff. I don't think Goff is much if any better than Prescott (or Cousins). His success comes from the system he's in. But that success is real -- they went to the Super Bowl last year. You might argue that only elite QBs are worth paying. But I think if you've got a guy like Goff (or Dak) who's shown he can run the offense, make some big time throws, stay healthy, be good in the room and the huddle, etc, you keep him, even at current market value. Not because he's worth every single penny but because you're eliminating one of the biggest pools of risk that could undermine an otherwise strongly built team. The Cowboys defense is good, their OL should be back to elite level this year now that Frederick's back, and they have good weapons (Cooper, Gallup, Zeke). About the only thing (aside from injuries or terrible luck) that could keep them from winning 10 games this year is having a QB who isn't good enough. Don't tell that to the Rams fans in the NFL Forum who have blitzed me for criticizing Goff and how much the Rams are paying him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wcblack34 Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 20 minutes ago, Cearbhall said: The counter to that is that it wouldn't be hard to add a starter via free agency each year for the ~$28M being saved. But personally, I would have a tough time going into any year without a QB that is proven at least somewhat. The Jackson and Ponder years were enough for me be leery. There was so much talent on some of those teams that was held back by the QB. The QB couldn't be fairly evaluated owing to trash offensive line and/or horrendous coaching which extended the time it took to move on. If you take a QB next draft, you have Cousins for next year. You know what you have in him. You get an entire season to evaluate the new kid. He sits and learns for a year before taking over. After his first year playing, you can evaluate if that is the year you want to take the next early round guy. You have 3 offseasons to make that choice. I would lean towards making the next pick when the guy on the rookie contract has 2 years left on his deal. You get to evaluate for 2 years, and if the guy you're getting rid of would be better than the guy you drafted, you can franchise him and go to the well again. Does it provide long-term stability at the QB position? Not necessarily. But it allows you to put together a more complete team that sets your QB up for success. If you strike gold with a Wentz/Mahomes/Watson type, you put yourself in position to be in the upper echelon of Super Bowl contention for several years. If you don't, you aren't devoting a huge chunk of your cap to a guy who isn't going to get you there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SemperFeist Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 2020 Vikings draft Jordan Love, let him sit and learn for a year behind Cousins. Love takes over in 2021. 🙏 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingsrule Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 I'm all for prioritizing QB in the next draft and moving on from Cousins when his deal is up. However, I'm still somewhat concerned about the OL and DL. There are still needs at OG, DE and DT. I'm not too confident that there are players on the current roster who can start at these spots long term, except for Dru Samia, I think he's got a chance at one of the guard spots. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vike daddy Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 When Jets running back Le'Veon Bell plays his first game as a Jet on Sunday, it will be the 63rd game of his career. And he’ll almost certainly do something no player in NFL history has done in his first 63 games. Bell is set to reach 8,000 career yards from scrimmage, and by doing it he’ll be the fastest player ever to get to that mark. Bell currently has 7,996 yards from scrimmage, so he’ll most likely top 8,000 on his first touch. Eric Dickerson currently owns the distinction of the fastest player to 8,000 yards from scrimmage. Dickerson did it in his 64th game. After Dickerson, the fastest players to get to 8,000 yards were Edgerrin James and LaDainian Tomlinson in 65 games, Jim Brown in 67 games and Marcus Allen in 68 games. https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/09/04/leveon-bell-set-to-reach-8000-scrimmage-yards-in-63-games-fastest-ever/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swede700 Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 And Adrian wasn't too much behind them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krauser Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 (edited) QBs are priced at the rough equivalent of 2 good players at other positions. Veteran franchise QBs make $30-ish M per year. That’s about double what teams pay for a decent pass rusher who’s never been an All Pro, an above average tackle, a very good to excellent but not elite WR, or a highly drafted RB with lots of all purpose yards. Note that those aren’t the truly elite players (Donald, Mack, etc) who make much more than $15-16M these days. In the draft, QBs who are expected to be franchise players often cost 2 or more premium picks to acquire given the need to trade up. Even teams who stay put and draft a QB at the top of the draft are forgoing 2 or more premium picks that they could have gotten if they were willing to trade down. So rookie QBs are paid cheaply but the acquisition cost is still steep. it’s not hard to see why. Take away the top 20-25 QBs (considered franchise QBs either on premium veteran contracts or expected to develop to that level after their rookie deals) and see what the league would look like. Keenum vs Flacco vs McCoy vs Hoyer vs Barkley vs etc etc. Now put the QBs back and subtract 2 blue chip players from each team. For the Vikings, say they lose Joseph and Rhodes, or Diggs and Hunter, or Cook and Barr. In almost every case, that team (and the games across the league in general) and going to be better if teams have their QB1 even if it costs them 2 other good players. The dropoff to the QB2 is much, much steeper than to the backups at WR, CB, edge, etc. And teams could scheme around losing one of those pieces in a way that they couldn’t adjust for losing their starting QB. So QBs are if anything underpaid given their value over replacement to a given team. And I think that’s what explains teams paying good but not great QBs like Goff or Cousins or eventually Prescott. No one’s confusing them for elite talents, but they are known quality starters who raise the floor for a team, above the uncertainty of their potential replacement, who might torpedo a season or three if he’s not good enough. And QBs of that quality are good enough to win with. Super Bowls are hard to get to, and hard to win, unless you’re Belichick. Brees hasn’t been for a decade; Rodgers and Roethlisberger in almost as long. Rivers has never been. Mahomes won MVP and didn’t make it. And those are some of the best QBs in the league. Meanwhile, Flacco and Foles and Eli have rings, and some good but not elite QBs like Goff and Ryan and Kaepernick have made it. i understand the instinct that says $30M is too much for a non elite QB. But if non-elite position players make 1/3 to half that, it really isn’t. That’s just the market, and it reflects the way the game works these days. Edited September 5, 2019 by Krauser 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cearbhall Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 46 minutes ago, wcblack34 said: If you take a QB next draft, you have Cousins for next year. You know what you have in him. You get an entire season to evaluate the new kid. He sits and learns for a year before taking over. After his first year playing, you can evaluate if that is the year you want to take the next early round guy. You have 3 offseasons to make that choice. I would lean towards making the next pick when the guy on the rookie contract has 2 years left on his deal. You get to evaluate for 2 years, and if the guy you're getting rid of would be better than the guy you drafted, you can franchise him and go to the well again. Does it provide long-term stability at the QB position? Not necessarily. But it allows you to put together a more complete team that sets your QB up for success. If you strike gold with a Wentz/Mahomes/Watson type, you put yourself in position to be in the upper echelon of Super Bowl contention for several years. If you don't, you aren't devoting a huge chunk of your cap to a guy who isn't going to get you there. You don't have to convince me the Vikings should be drafting QBs. I was in favor of using a pick as high as the first round pick this year on a QB. I'll again be in favor of that next year and I have also said that I think the Vikings should bring in two QBs next year. Basically, until the team has a franchise QB, I am in favor of looking to draft one every year understanding the reality that some years there will not be a guy to draft that is good enough value. Ideally, they value the position high enough to then actually land at least one in the draft every two years. Those young guys can keep cycling on the roster until one of them shows they have what it takes. In the meantime, I do think that the team needs to have a QB in the starting position that has at least shown the game is not too fast for him. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingsrule Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 11 minutes ago, Krauser said: QBs are priced at the rough equivalent of 2 good players at other positions. Veteran franchise QBs make $30-ish M per year. That’s about double what teams pay for a decent pass rusher who’s never been an All Pro, an above average tackle, a very good to excellent but not elite WR, or a highly drafted RB with lots of all purpose yards. Note that those aren’t the truly elite players (Donald, Mack, etc) who make much more than $15-16M these days. In the draft, QBs who are expected to be franchise players often cost 2 or more premium picks to acquire given the need to trade up. Even teams who stay put and draft a QB at the top of the draft are forgoing 2 or more premium picks that they could have gotten if they were willing to trade down. So rookie QBs are paid cheaply but the acquisition cost is still steep. it’s not hard to see why. Take away the top 20-25 QBs (considered franchise QBs either on premium veteran contracts or expected to develop to that level after their rookie deals) and see what the league would look like. Keenum vs Flacco vs McCoy vs Hoyer vs Barkley vs etc etc. Now put the QBs back and subtract 2 blue chip players from each team. For the Vikings, say they lose Joseph and Rhodes, or Diggs and Hunter, or Cook and Barr. In almost every case, that team (and the games across the league in general) and going to be better if teams have their QB1 even if it costs them 2 other good players. The dropoff to the QB2 is much, much steeper than to the backups at WR, CB, edge, etc. And teams could scheme around losing one of those pieces in a way that they couldn’t adjust for losing their starting QB. So QBs are if anything underpaid given their value over replacement to a given team. And I think that’s what explains teams paying good but not great QBs like Goff or Cousins or eventually Prescott. No one’s confusing them for elite talents, but they are known quality starters who raise the floor for a team, above the uncertainty of their potential replacement, who might torpedo a season or three if he’s not good enough. And QBs of that quality are good enough to win with. Super Bowls are hard to get to, and hard to win, unless you’re Belichick. Brees hasn’t been for a decade; Rodgers and Roethlisberger in almost as long. Rivers has never been. Mahomes won MVP and didn’t make it. And those are some of the best QBs in the league. Meanwhile, Flacco and Foles and Eli have rings, and some good but not elite QBs like Goff and Ryan and Kaepernick have made it. i understand the instinct that says $30M is too much for a non elite QB. But if non-elite position players make 1/3 to half that, it really isn’t. That’s just the market, and it reflects the way the game works these days. All great points and certainly a different way to look at it. I'm not sure when or if we will see it, but when do teams start trusting their process to draft and develop new starters. Seems the best strategy for building a top end roster, assuming you don't have a legit top 10 QB, would be to keep developing and drafting QBs to avoid that $30M payout, which will probably be $40M in a few years. My observation but maybe I'm way off, it seems much easier to find solid Qbs these days. It just seems the middle bucket of mediocre Qbs is growing considerably while there are fewer elite and downright awful QBs. Is the talent/success range from QB #11 to QB #20 all that different now? Can you win with a top 20 QB with the right system? If you answer yes, it would seem most logical to not pay a middle of the road QB $30M and just draft and develop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SemperFeist Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 Pretty sure Breer meant to write Raiders in his first sentence. Get your popcorn ready! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swede700 Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 (edited) Like your allusion, they just need to sit him down like Andy Reid did to T.O. It's sad how Antonio is just imploding his career in such short order. Maybe they should find out if he's bipolar or something, because unless Pittsburgh was real good at hiding it for several years, this seems to be a recent occurrence of self-destruction. Edited September 5, 2019 by swede700 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SemperFeist Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 Wouldn’t be shocked if we never see Brown play in a Raiders jersey. And this is absolutely the right move by Mayock. It sends a clear and easy to read message to the locker room, and helps solidify the type of culture that the Raiders’ organization is trying to establish. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vike daddy Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 Kyler Murray didn’t start as a freshman in high school. He didn’t start his first game as a freshman at Texas A&M, and he sat behind Baker Mayfield at Oklahoma for most of 2017 after losing another year (2016) to transfer rules. But the No. 1 overall choice will start his first NFL game. He will become the first rookie to start for the Cardinals in a season opener since 1954, according to Scott Bordow of TheAthletic.com. https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/09/05/kyler-murray-first-rookie-to-start-season-opener-for-cardinals-since-1954/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swede700 Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 9 minutes ago, vike daddy said: Kyler Murray didn’t start as a freshman in high school. He didn’t start his first game as a freshman at Texas A&M, and he sat behind Baker Mayfield at Oklahoma for most of 2017 after losing another year (2016) to transfer rules. But the No. 1 overall choice will start his first NFL game. He will become the first rookie to start for the Cardinals in a season opener since 1954, according to Scott Bordow of TheAthletic.com. https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/09/05/kyler-murray-first-rookie-to-start-season-opener-for-cardinals-since-1954/ The legendary Lamar McHan (whoever the hell that is). I looked up the game...and long-time Vikings' fans will recognize the name of the guy that caught the first TD of that game (for the NY Giants)...Bob Schnelker. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikesfan89 Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 You mean Sloter isn't starting for them? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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