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Gutey or Rodgers?


VonKarman

Gutey or Rodgers?  

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  1. 1. Which side are you on?



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IF Rodgers is as smart as he likes to think he is....he should understand the logic of getting a QB on the bench when he was starting to slide in his performance, especially at his age. 

He should understand that going to bat for a 4th or 5th WR doesn't really carry that much weight, wouldn't you rather have a developmental WR at that spot? 

Does he realize that every time he signed a new deal after his rookie contract he was the highest paid player in the league?  He realistically believes the Packers should market-correct that every year?

He has read his own press clippings too much.  He is not a 'grizzled' veteran, he is acting like the diva his predecessor became late in his career.  His agent dropping this turd bomb right before the draft was classless. If he really wanted out he would have let them know at least a week ahead of time?  Jeez, all the Packers have done is given him an above average OL anchored by a top 5 LT.  He's got a legit top 5 WR (production wise), he's got a legit top 5 RB.  He expressed how much he liked the team last year and against odds- Ball and Gute kept it together as good as they could with a declining salary cap.

Even if he comes back, he's thrown a huge wrench into the situation.  He acts like he's done this all alone.  He wants more money when he is already under contract, he knows the cap went down and he still pulls this crap.

Smart guy indeed....just not very wise?  What has he done to his legacy going forward?

 

 

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1 minute ago, Dubz41 said:

What has he done to his legacy going forward?

Really depends on what happens next. This will be quickly forgotten if he comes, plays well, and is traded next offseason or if Love steps in and looks like he has got it and we trade Rodgers for a butt load of talent. If Rodgers leaves and the team ends up in the trash for years it is going to hurt his legacy. 


I think one of the main reasons fans were so quick  to reembrace Favre is that Rodgers was shown to be great so no harm no foul. 

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From a financial perspective, 2021 is very likely Rodgers last in GB barring a trade of Love and a contract redo for Rodgers that increases guaranteed money and/or total money on the rest of the contract (possibly another year or 2).

(All dollar figures below are rounded for simplicity)

  • trade before 2021 season
    • pre June 1st
      • dead cap hit in 2021 = $38.3M (adds $1.1M in total cap charge)
      • dead cap in 2022 = $0
    • post June 1st 
      • dead cap hit in 2021 = $21.1M (saves $16.05M in total cap charge)
      • dead cap in 2022 = $17.2M
  • trade before 2022 season
    • counts $37.2M in 2021
    • counts $17.2M in dead cap on the 2022 books
    • TOTAL of $54.4M

Net difference of a trade before the 2021 season (regardless of pre or post June 1st) vs a trade before the 2022 season is = $16M

The finances point to a trade before 2021 season and "saving" the $16M overall.  

 

Rodgers Trade value

It is debatable if keeping Rodgers 1 year longer changes his trade market value

  • 1 year older
  • unknown performance in 2021

Incoming Picks value

  • Before 2021 season
    • trade before the 2021 season means any future pick is likely to be less in value due to any team acquiring Rodgers is a now better team and more likely a playoff team and possible super bowl contender
    • potentially limited teams in play due to QB situation and cap situation
  • Before 2022 season
    • likely a better chance of getting a higher value pick from a QB needy team
    • likely more suitors that are looking for a QB answer that have missed on other options
      • Denver -- Lock, should have good draft capital
      • LV -- Carr, should have good draft capital
      • Philly -- Hurts, has draft capital including MIA 2022 1st and possibly Indy pick
      • Miami -- Tua, has draft capital
      • Indy -- Wentz, might be a little less draft capital after trading for Wentz
      • Pittsburgh -- Big Ben likely on the way out
      • Carolina -- Darnold, should have draft capital (less the 2nd rounder used to acquire Darnold)
      • NYG -- Jones, has draft capital including Chicago 2022 1st
      • LAR -- Stafford, limited draft capital for next 2 years
      • certainly may be more teams including MIN, DET, NO, HOU

 

Mixed of pros and cons on a trade before 2021 vs before 2022.    With 1 thing that is hard to determine is how does keeping Rodgers for 2021 effect the GB Packers in both performance on the field and chemistry in the locker room with the variety of distractions that could surround the team/organization for the 2021+ season.

 

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6 minutes ago, Spartacus said:

Really depends on what happens next. This will be quickly forgotten if he comes, plays well, and is traded next offseason or if Love steps in and looks like he has got it and we trade Rodgers for a butt load of talent. If Rodgers leaves and the team ends up in the trash for years it is going to hurt his legacy. 


I think one of the main reasons fans were so quick  to reembrace Favre is that Rodgers was shown to be great so no harm no foul. 

That’s an interesting take. Idk if it is the drama he caused or the fact that he’s a dumb hillbilly , but I don’t think there’s much shine to Favre anymore. Maybe it’s Aaron’s success, but Favre doesn’t seem as beloved as he once was or should be based on his on field legacy.

Edited by Rainmaker90
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Just now, Rainmaker90 said:

That’s an interesting take. Idk if it is the drama he caused or the fact that he’s a dumb hillbilly , but I don’t think there’s much shine to Favre anymore. Maybe it’s Aaron’s success, but Favre doesn’t seem as beloved as he once was or should be based on his on field legacy.

There were thousands of fans on their feet crying when Favre came back to Green Bay.  Worst case, Favre is probably the second or third most popular Packer of all time.  

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2 minutes ago, Rainmaker90 said:

That’s an interesting take. Idk if it is the drama he caused or the fact that he’s a dumb hillbilly , but I don’t think there’s much shine to Favre anymore. Maybe it’s Aaron’s success, but Favre doesn’t seem as beloved as he once was or should be based on his on field legacy.

Favre was a key player piece in the franchise resurgence.  Fans will not forget that part of things.  Rodgers carried on the process as the QB.  With Rogers having been the GB QB for 13 seasons as the starter, there are a fair number of fans that don't recall Favre as  a player, more of a name.  

As the team success continues, the prior stars do fade.  What helps the Lombardi era players is the significant down years in the 70's and 80's.  That helped propel their standing in the eyes of fans to the glory years.  

how Rodgers legacy shakes out depends on the team success in the following 5-10+ years.   If Jordan Love steps in and guides GB to a Super Bowl title, Rodgers could become much less revered by the fans.  

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Just now, Ragnar Danneskjold said:

He's a fond memory for sure, but his opinions don't mean much at this point. 

I agree completely.  I cringe every time I hear him open his mouth.

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4 minutes ago, SSG said:

There were thousands of fans on their feet crying when Favre came back to Green Bay.  Worst case, Favre is probably the second or third most popular Packer of all time.  

Maybe it’s just me. Even on here it seems like we just appreciate his service.  He just doesn’t seem revered . 

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5 minutes ago, Rainmaker90 said:

Maybe it’s just me. Even on here it seems like we just appreciate his service.  He just doesn’t seem revered . 

I  know if I was to poll my family who are casual Packer fans (parents, brothers, cousins, etc) that watch the games when they are on TV here (Michigan), Brett Favre is in at least the top 3 and still the favorite for a couple.  Everyone of them would have picked Favre over 12 even before this tiff.

Favre is still up there in the top 10 for me but I  still hold a grudge for weaseling his way to the Vikings.

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10 minutes ago, SSG said:

I  know if I was to poll my family who are casual Packer fans (parents, brothers, cousins, etc) that watch the games when they are on TV here (Michigan), Brett Favre is in at least the top 3 and still the favorite for a couple.  Everyone of them would have picked Favre over 12 even before this tiff.

Favre is still up there in the top 10 for me but I  still hold a grudge for weaseling his way to the Vikings.

I would say he’s at my bottom half of my top 10. I was also a tad too young to see him in his prime, 97 I was like 6. 
 

 

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Teams with traditional ownership have to make long-term decisions for their franchises all the time.   This situation with our star quarterback/star player is NOT unique. 

 It's always about the money, with the sole exception of playing year after year with a losing team and wanting to chase a ring at the end of a career (see entire NBA system).  Give Aaron one last fat new contract commensurate with being a 3 time MVP and $1 more than the highest paid QB in the league and suddenly he has the guarantee to control his own future and you'll never find a player happier with his current team and front office

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7 minutes ago, Kampfgeist said:

Teams with traditional ownership have to make long-term decisions for their franchises all the time.   This situation with our star quarterback/star player is NOT unique. 

 It's always about the money, with the sole exception of playing year after year with a losing team and wanting to chase a ring at the end of a career (see entire NBA system).  Give Aaron one last fat new contract commensurate with being a 3 time MVP and $1 more than the highest paid QB in the league and suddenly he has the guarantee to control his own future and you'll never find a player happier with his current team and front office

Why? Are you sure he's going to KEEP playing at this level? That's not a bet I'd make.

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1 hour ago, Green19 said:

I don’t think you’re wrong in your assessment of the situation at all. Although I do tend to think money solves this because with money and term they would be committing to Rodgers in a way that would get rid of all this build in flexibility the team has.

To the greater point the person that holds the most responsible in this situation is Mark Murphy. He is supposed to be the “owner”, in how his role is setup. He should be the one in the draft room saying “hey, looks like love is going to be the pick... Brian you need to call and let Aaron know the thinking.” I mean the Brady had Kraft that he could go to and did to get rid of Jimmy G.

Murphy needed/needs to be that guy. Not saying he can’t ultimately be the one that sided with Brian... but I think it’s more on him to be the middle man between Brian and Aaron.

100% agree. I think this falls way more on Murphy than Gutey. You could be correct about the money. I'm sure if anything happens there will definitely be an extension with more $$$

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30 minutes ago, spilltray said:

Why? Are you sure he's going to KEEP playing at this level? That's not a bet I'd make.

I'm not advocating to give him that contract.   I'm countering the arguments from others that this has anything to do with something other than $.   Rodgers has played in this league for 16 years - he's not throwing his legacy away with a principled stand over Jake Kumerow.   GIve him the contract security he wants and Jake Kumerow becomes a fond memory along with 16 years worth of great teammates and friends that he's seen move on.     Again - not advocating for the contract - just stating that is the sole solution to Aaron's and his agents' problems

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