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Recapping the 2021 Draft (Post-Draft Talk)


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On 5/3/2021 at 11:08 AM, Rich7sena said:

You and others are not understanding odds. Think of it this way. If the draft were a crapshoot, the success rate in round 1 through round 7 will be evenly distributed. Instead, the actual success rate is much higher in round 1 and gets progressively worse in rounds 2-7. You're fixated on the "bust rate." The NFL is a hard league to succeed in so the vast majority of all players drafted will not succeed in the NFL. So, 50/50 is actually quite high of a success rate when you factor in that most draftable players will not have a successful NFL career. If the the draft were an actual crapshoot, film watching would not matter, the combine would not matter, etc. You simply would randomly pick a name from a list of draftable players. If the draft were conducted like that, then over time the success rate would even out between every round.

I'll agree that the draft is more like gambling than a science (which is why fans could do just as good a job selecting players than most GMs), but it isn't a crapshoot. In fact, we often analogize to the stock market when we say player's stocks are rising and falling.

I don't know that that is true though. At the very least I haven't fact checked that. And the NFL is made up of more late round and undrafted guys than they are of early round picks. 

What do we consider hits as well? Again guys drafted later may not become starters over guys drafted at their position in the first or second round. It doesn't mean that they aren't however equally or more talented or wouldn't be an equally as good or better player on the field. That's something that has to be factored in if you are talking about whether the draft is a science or a gamble. 

Another thing that has to be factored in? Scheme fit. Guys drafted to a scheme that doesnt fiy their skill set later may be an equally talented player as someone drafted at their same position earlier that goes to a scheme that does fit their skill set perfectly. It doesn't mean that the actual player or the success rate shows that guys drafted earlier would hit more regardless without the countless other factors that play into a player having success that have absolutely nothing to do with you or a GMs evaluation being right or the players drafted earlier showing the success rate is higher at the top of the draft. 

And yet another thing that has to be factored in injuries, how many guys that would have been drafted higher or would have had as much success as a mid round or late round pick as an early round pick get injured in college or the NFL and never reach the potential that they otherwise may have? It doesn't mean that the evaluation and success of higher drafted players is simply because those evaluations are a science and you used that to find guys that had a higher success. It simply means that injuries in a contact sport play a huge part in who finds the most success, and who gets the most time to rebound from injuries. Because obviously the higher drafted guys are much more likely to be given the necessary amount of time to rehab and rebound from their injuries than late round or undrafted guys will get. 

You're assuming that the success rate of guys drafted higher in comparison to guys drafted later is an equal one to one comparison in terms of their individual abilities and the evaluation of said prospects. But it's not. 

Things like I mentioned like human bias, jobs being on the line and the need for them to be right and have the higher investments pan out, humans hubris and their need to be proven right and vindicated, humans nature to give things they have invested more in more time to develop, be given more attention from coaches, have a scheme designed around their strengths and to avoid their weaknesses, be given more time to make mistakes and learn from them, be given more playing time to develop in general. Then you also have things like I mentioned in this post. Two equally talented players, one being drafted into a scheme he fits, the other being drafted into a scheme that he doesn't belong in. Or how about guys being drafted later being drafted at positions with an entrenched starter being drafted with the entire idea of backing them up? How many first round picks are being drafted with the idea of backing someone up? You see that all the time with mid to late round picks. It doesn't mean they couldn't hit with the same success, it means they were drafted with a different thing entirely being considered a success and then finding the same success as a starter a much more uphill and not at all comparable situation to the highly drafted prospect. 

The success level from round to round dropping (if that is the case and we have a very firm understanding and agreement on what defines success) doesn't mean that the draft itself is a science and that it's not more in line with a crap shoot or gambling. I don't think it's a total crap shoot as in you should just draft a name randomly of someone that is eligible and you will have the same odds of success as any other team. Obviously experience, competition, health, scheme fit, and your overall body of work in college is something that matters, but none of those things on their own or combined make anyone a guaranteed success at the NFL level. Literally anyone in any draft can bust. The masses, media, and NFL teams are wrong every year HALF the time in the first round alone. And if it's a coin flip on the guy you draft in the first round being a success (as in just a long term starter the odds go way down if were talking pro bowler or all pro player) or being a bust that isnt on the team in 5 years than the process is much closer to gambling and a "crap shoot" than it is a scientific evaluation. 

Just because something is true, doesn't mean in a vacuum it would continue to be true. There are countless things that play into a guy finding success in the NFL level. Belief in their skills by the coaches, scheme fit, necessary time given to make mistakes and develop, playing a position that is the teams weakest position (meaning the bar for success and the likelihood of significant playing time because lets face it teams are typically targeting one of a couple positions they are weakest at in the first and second but not necessarily the case in the later rounds), and on and on and on. All of that stuff plays a huge factor, and it doesn't mean taking those guys and them hitting was because your evaluations were rock solid, it could just as easily be a case of where you took them affording them more time, attention, having their skills built around in a scheme, etc. 

All of those things and more play the biggest part in ANY draft pick finding success IMO. And none of those things really have to do with your evaluation of an individual prospect as much as they do that prospect being taken higher so there's a bigger need and pressure for them to preform leads to them getting treatment, coaching, patience, etc in comparison to the guys drafted later who don't get those same advantages. 

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16 hours ago, Mr Raider said:
On 5/3/2021 at 4:08 PM, Rich7sena said:

You and others are not understanding odds. Think of it this way. If the draft were a crapshoot, the success rate in round 1 through round 7 will be evenly distributed. Instead, the actual success rate is much higher in round 1 and gets progressively worse in rounds 2-7. You're fixated on the "bust rate." The NFL is a hard league to succeed in so the vast majority of all players drafted will not succeed in the NFL. So, 50/50 is actually quite high of a success rate when you factor in that most draftable players will not have a successful NFL career. If the the draft were an actual crapshoot, film watching would not matter, the combine would not matter, etc. You simply would randomly pick a name from a list of draftable players. If the draft were conducted like that, then over time the success rate would even out between every round.

I'll agree that the draft is more like gambling than a science (which is why fans could do just as good a job selecting players than most GMs), but it isn't a crapshoot. In fact, we often analogize to the stock market when we say player's stocks are rising and falling.

Expand  

I don't know that that is true though. At the very least I haven't fact checked that. And the NFL is made up of more late round and undrafted guys than they are of early round picks. 

What do we consider hits as well? Again guys drafted later may not become starters over guys drafted at their position in the first or second round. It doesn't mean that they aren't however equally or more talented or wouldn't be an equally as good or better player on the field. That's something that has to be factored in if you are talking about whether the draft is a science or a gamble. 

Another thing that has to be factored in? Scheme fit. Guys drafted to a scheme that doesnt fiy their skill set later may be an equally talented player as someone drafted at their same position earlier that goes to a scheme that does fit their skill set perfectly. It doesn't mean that the actual player or the success rate shows that guys drafted earlier would hit more regardless without the countless other factors that play into a player having success that have absolutely nothing to do with you or a GMs evaluation being right or the players drafted earlier showing the success rate is higher at the top of the draft.

I think the draft can be summed up nicely by each pick being called 'an educated guess'.

Some front offices are more educated than others and have a better concept of scheme fit and value but it's clearly not a science, as in testable and repeatable results with a definitive theory. And it's far from the random 'throw a dart at a board' guesswork or hit rates over the years would even out. Educated guesswork is what it is IMO.

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On 5/6/2021 at 7:00 AM, RaidersAreOne said:

 

Moehrig is definitely the young player I am most confident in being a very good player from this draft class for us. With his skill set and provided our coaching doesn't completely suck then I see very little probability that he's not at least a decent to good player with potential for a Pro Bowl type player. Cisco was my favourite safety prospect overall but I'm under no illusions he has a much higher chance to bust but I feel has a slightly higher All Pro ceiling. Very happy to have gotten Moehrig in the 2nd.

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5 hours ago, Darbsk said:

Moehrig is definitely the young player I am most confident in being a very good player from this draft class for us. With his skill set and provided our coaching doesn't completely suck then I see very little probability that he's not at least a decent to good player with potential for a Pro Bowl type player. Cisco was my favourite safety prospect overall but I'm under no illusions he has a much higher chance to bust but I feel has a slightly higher All Pro ceiling. Very happy to have gotten Moehrig in the 2nd.

he going have to earn that starting spot over KOJO. nothing given 

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2 hours ago, Humble_Beast said:

he going have to earn that starting spot over KOJO. nothing given 

It's very much given. TM is already the starter. The only guy on roster who would compete for that spot (Heath) was cut.

Joseph is SS insurance when Abum is eventually hurt or benched. They've made that clear already. 

 

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Posted (edited)

to be fair, other than Moehrig at FS and Abram at SS... none of us really know how the staff sees the other safeties. we're speculating where Joseph and Gillespie will be slotted.

Joseph has always been a SS in a FS's body, but he doesn't fit the prototype SS that Bradley has ever worked with. Makes me think they want him at FS and therefore, Gillespie at SS

Edited by Turnobili
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7 minutes ago, Turnobili said:

to be fair, other than Moehrig at FS and Abram at SS... none of us really know how the staff sees the other safeties. we're speculating where Joseph and Gillespie will be slotted.

Joseph has always been a SS in a FS's body, but he doesn't fit the prototype SS that Bradley has ever worked with. Makes me think they want him at FS and therefore, Gillespie at SS

Mayock literally said in a press conference he's here to back Abum and put an end to the FS conversation.

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Posted (edited)
55 minutes ago, Turnobili said:

to be fair, other than Moehrig at FS and Abram at SS... none of us really know how the staff sees the other safeties. we're speculating where Joseph and Gillespie will be slotted.

Joseph has always been a SS in a FS's body, but he doesn't fit the prototype SS that Bradley has ever worked with. Makes me think they want him at FS and therefore, Gillespie at SS

I could be wrong, but I see it

FS: Joseph, Moehrig - Obviously Joseph has been SS most of his career in the NFL. Mayock and Bradley think he speed, range to actually be a FS. MM even called him Earl Thomas 2.0 a few years back. However, they are not highly invested in him due to his short term deal. He is one of the starters with a short leash, they will jump to Moehrig if Joseph starts to get burned. Ultimately Moehrig is their long term plan of the position. Just my personal opinion, but I think Joseph will be this years Aghlor( surprise great signing). There was no need for Health when they already have a vet who they feel gives them value in 2021. Moehrig might have a redshirt season if KOJO balls out, or strictly in 3 safety sets or in the slot. 

SS: Abram, Gillespie - I think Gillespie is someone they think can be a starter down the road. Hence the trade up, they wanted someone they thought highly of at that point in the draft. I think Mayock still believes in him, but Abram has one constant: injuries. He missed his entire rookie season, think he got hurt twice in his 2nd season. His play style is reckless and about hard hits and violence. I wouldn't be surprised if he got hurt again. Gillespie gave us a safety who can fill in his shoes if there is an injury. He's much cheaper than Heath and more of a ceiling. Abram stock is also lower after a down year. They wanted someone to challenge him to be better in all aspects and protect himself. Gillespie has the potential to take his job, and challenge Abram to reach his own potential. At the very least we have great depth behind a wild player. 

Edited by Humble_Beast
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3 minutes ago, big_palooka said:

I guess he was wrong on fans realizing it 

Mayock is the worst smokescreener in the NFL. It's literally not close. His Jaryd Jones-Smith and Heath comments basically announced to the league "Hey, we're taking a OT and FS with our first two picks, just so you guys know". 

Anything short of 10-7 this season, and I really want nothing to do with this regime anymore. 

49ers played chess the right way. You and I, among others, always figured it was Lance, but they convinced MANYYYY people it was Mac Jones, and then they leaked a report saying "Deciding between "Mac Jones and Trey Lance" to make everyone assume "Oh, it's Fields!". When I was saying when that report was released, still Lance and they are just playing 3D Chess and want everyone to assume Mac Jones or Justin Fields. 

Mayock definitely would have released "Mac Jones or Justin Fields is the pick!" if Trey Lance was his selection. Gruden and Mike have the two worst poker faces in the NFL. 

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7 minutes ago, big_palooka said:

I guess he was wrong on fans realizing it 

damn, i should have known he was going to be a SS as soon as Sanjit made a video about how he will be a FS

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1 minute ago, BayRaider said:

Mayock is the worst smokescreener in the NFL. It's literally not close. His Jaryd Jones-Smith and Heath comments basically announced to the league "Hey, we're taking a OT and FS with our first two picks, just so you guys know". 

Anything short of 10-7 this season, and I really want nothing to do with this regime anymore. 

49ers played chess the right way. You and I, among others, always figured it was Lance, but they convinced MANYYYY people it was Mac Jones, and then they leaked a report saying "Deciding between "Mac Jones and Trey Lance" to make everyone assume "Oh, it's Fields!". When I was saying when that report was released, still Lance and they are just playing 3D Chess and want everyone to assume Mac Jones or Justin Fields. 

Mayock definitely would have released "Mac Jones or Justin Fields is the pick!" if Trey Lance was his selection. Gruden and Mike have the two worst poker faces in the NFL. 

The point is, Karl Joseph is not playing FS. He's here to backup Abum after he injures himself week 2.

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There's a recent Mayock interview on raiders.com. A few interesting points.

- They were after Hayward for a bit of time already. Hayward wanted to wait after the draft. Mentioned they had to adress the need for a veteran CB in this young group.

- Ferrell is going to play base DE and move inside on passing downs.

- Pressure is on Abram and Arnette to step up and mature. He didn't say it exactly like this but that's what i got.

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