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1 hour ago, soulman said:

Well since Team CEO Mark Murphy has made it clear that Gutekunst won't be fired just to appease Rodgers the ball is back in Rodgers court and he should probably decide soon.  If he blows off the mandatory OTAs I would probably take that as his response to the front office and begin negotiating a trade quickly.

If the Broncos flipped two firsts and say Patrick Surtain who was their 1st round pick that's essentially the same as a current 1st and 2 future 1sts.  That should be enough to start the ball rolling while they haggle over other picks.  As much as I dislike Rodgers I'd love to see him in Bronco Orange and out of our hair.

It's a tough call.  Packer's were probably a LT injury from a SB title.   I think it is unlikely they play that well again however.   Up to that point they had a number of things break their way and Rodgers was playing on another level most of year.

Still I would take Surtain who is at least a good starting CB in league and perhaps a star with the 2 picks and probably ask for another good young player on a rookie deal like Jeudy.

That gives me a good young cheap player that I control for 4 more years and 1 more for 5 and 2 more on way that we control for next 5 years.

it gives me tons of cap space to sign some good FAs.  

You want a young good QB and good Qbs are really hard to find, but it's been shown time and again you can win in this league with a stacked team and an average QB. 

It might be Love turns out to be good.

What are odds that Rodgers can last another 3 years playing at a high level?   Or will want too?   Maybe he has kids and wants to be home with them more.   Maybe he takes up painting or really, really wants to do Jeopardy.   

Who knows?  Either way father time will win soon.

 

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, dll2000 said:

What are odds that Rodgers can last another 3 years playing at a high level?   Or will want too?   Maybe he has kids and wants to be home with them more.   Maybe he takes up painting or really, really wants to do Jeopardy.   

Who knows?  Either way father time will win soon.

That's the obstacle any team who employs Aaron Rodgers will have to face.  Unlike Brady I don't think Rodgers is as much "all about football" and adding rings to his collection.  He's looking at life after the NFL and I don't believe the Jeopardy thing is just a ruse.

But I do believe he'd like to win at least one more championship before he goes out so he's weighing whether or not that can happen in GB or if his odds are better elsewhere.  He already knows Denver will at least try to "buy him" a Lombardi Trophy because they've done it before.

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The Locked on GB podcast or some insider guest there on said the issue was this:  His agent went to brass after season and said, “Hey, we just had MVP year let’s lock him up with a new contract and let him retire in GB.”

Packers said, “Nah, were good with status quo, but thanks for asking.”

Rodgers was so offended by that response he said, “Later, never coming back.”  And has entertained nothing since even though things have been offered.  

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2 hours ago, dll2000 said:

The Locked on GB podcast or some insider guest there on said the issue was this:  His agent went to brass after season and said, “Hey, we just had MVP year let’s lock him up with a new contract and let him retire in GB.”

Packers said, “Nah, were good with status quo, but thanks for asking.”

Rodgers was so offended by that response he said, “Later, never coming back.”  And has entertained nothing since even though things have been offered.  

Saw a thing yesterday that Denver's still the frontrunner, and Chubb is mostly likely going to be included in a package. It was hard to tell just how much there was to that, though. The SI came out and called that all speculation, and insisted Chubb won't be part of any package...because Paton has said Chubb is really, really good. Okay SI, whatever. I hope that if Rodgers does get traded, it gets done soon. Because while it's sort of amusing to watch all of Cheesehead Land squirm and squabble, I can see the "Where is Rodgers headed?" media barrage getting very old, very quickly. 

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4 hours ago, dll2000 said:

The Locked on GB podcast or some insider guest there on said the issue was this:  His agent went to brass after season and said, “Hey, we just had MVP year let’s lock him up with a new contract and let him retire in GB.”

Packers said, “Nah, were good with status quo, but thanks for asking.”

Rodgers was so offended by that response he said, “Later, never coming back.”  And has entertained nothing since even though things have been offered.  

Ultimate happy ending- Rodgers retires, GB invests heavily to support Love and they have limited cap space in 2022. Then Rodgers comes back out of retirement so they have his $37 mil contract but refuses to play for them. Make it financially impossible to keep him without completely gutting the team. 

 

Now they are $30 mil over the cap and have to trade him to with a heavy cap penalty still. 

 

giphy.webp?cid=6c09b9528b9f727ffea8d7ede

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4 hours ago, dll2000 said:

The Locked on GB podcast or some insider guest there on said the issue was this:  His agent went to brass after season and said, “Hey, we just had MVP year let’s lock him up with a new contract and let him retire in GB.”

Packers said, “Nah, were good with status quo, but thanks for asking.”

Rodgers was so offended by that response he said, “Later, never coming back.”  And has entertained nothing since even though things have been offered.  

It tends to confirm the move on with Jordan Love planning on Gutekunst part.  He's got to be chafing a bit under the weight of Rodgers upcoming cap hits. 

From 2018-2020 he was dealing with cap hits in the $21 mil to $30 mil range.  This year Rodgers cap is $37 mil and next year nearly $40 mil.  Those are roughly 20% of GB's total cap when it's been said that keeping a top QBs cap at 14% or below is where it needs to be.

After the 2022 season when Love will also have been an understudy for 3 seasons and in anticipation of having to decide on his 5th year option Gutekunst would prefer Love be their starter.  Any extension of Rodgers deal will negate that plan and Gutekunst will be forced to consider trading Love or losing him in FA much like the decision Belichick faced with Garopollo.

Based on this the Packers response to an extension for Rodgers isn't surprising but it also confirmed to Rodgers what Gutekunst had in mind when he drafted Love without having first let Rodgers know of his plan.  It looks to me like he never considered how Rodgers might react to any of this and now Rodgers has him over a barrel and is insisting on a trade.

IMHO if Rodgers is willing to sit it out or even retire Gutekunst doesn't have much choice but to trade him.  Once they're forced to move with Love even if Rodgers unretires I can't see how they could bring him back and if they did it would be under the terms of his current contract so once again Gutekunst would be facing huge cap hits.

If Rodgers is really serious about refusing to ever play for GB again it sure seems to me that he holds the winning hand here.

Edited by soulman
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34 minutes ago, soulman said:

 

Based on this the Packers response to an extension for Rodgers isn't surprising but it also confirmed to Rodgers what Gutekunst had in mind when he drafted Love without having first let Rodgers know of his plan.  It looks to me like he never considered how Rodgers might react to any of this and now Rodgers has him over a barrel and is insisting on a trade.

IMHO if Rodgers is willing to sit it out or even retire Gutekunst doesn't have much choice but to trade him.  Once they're forced to move with Love even if Rodgers unretires I can't see how they could bring him back and if they did it would be under the terms of his current contract so once again Gutekunst would be facing huge cap hits.

If Rodgers is really serious about refusing to ever play for GB again it sure seems to me that he holds the winning hand here.

Assuming a player was able to force a teams hand like that, thehy could also pick their team on their own with a little good 'ol collusion, and then also force the compensation to be lower or longer term than the trading team would like.  At what point does the rest of the league put pressure on GB here to avoid having precedent set for a player choosing to cripple their franchise like that?

A very interesting situation, which happens to taste like Macallan 60 to me.  Not that we all need a reminder that things can change in a heartbeat, but do you recall how absolutely gray and pointless being a Bears fan felt 2 months ago? We were having a lively and soul-sucking (not you soul) debate about the merits or lack thereof to Andy Dalton over Foles. Now the Bears have a top QB to see what happens with, and the boogeyman seems to hate his team as much as we do. Kinda like falling down the stairs and landing in Kate Beckinsale's lap.  Just for ****s and giggles the day after the draft I bought a lotto ticket in WI since they won't sell you beer before 8am there. Didn't pay off but seemed like the day to take up buying lotto tickets. 

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1 hour ago, RunningVaccs said:

Kinda like falling down the stairs and landing in Kate Beckinsale's lap. 

We should all be so lucky.....(drool).

IHMO Rodgers leverage pretty much ends with "Trade me or I won't play".  He went to school on Wilson's gambit of naming teams he would accept a trade to but unlike Wilson my knowledge Rodgers doesn't have a no trade clause in his deal so they have the value of simple suggestions as opposed to any real leverage.

Denver probably makes as much sense as anywhere else because they have both the need and an ability to make the trade.  Elway would love to bring in Rodgers just as he did with Manning and give the Broncos a shot at a Super Bowl over the next 3 years or so.  They also have a 1st round rookie CB they could dangle in addition to picks.

The other two AFCW teams named would appear to be less likely to pay GB's asking price.  SD has a good young QB in Herbert and LV has Carr and also "Chucky" as a HC.  I'm not sure how well his ego and Rodgers ego would mesh.  But at any rate no one can even talk with Rodgers and his agent until GB gives permission which they have not so far.

So "Soap Opera on the Cheese Tundra" continues.

Edited by soulman
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Posted (edited)

I was browsing the Packer Forum just to see what the latest was from their group.  After weeding through my share of dumb**** posts I came upon this take from a year ago after Love was drafted and before Rodgers MVP season which ended in his loss to Brady and TB in the NFC Championship Game.

What Greg Cosell had to say makes a lot of sense since it was a stumbling block when LaFleur was hired and Rodgers voiced his concens over working with a HC who runs a "system" counter to Rodgers more "intuitive" style of play.  It was for that very reason that Packer Team President Mark Murphy cautioned Rodgers "not to be a problem".

That in itself could have been taken as a slap in the face of a guy whose carried weak rosters more often than not and kept producing winners and playoff caliber teams.  Rodgers made peace with it but only after LaFleur agreed not to make him totally change his style of play and he reward GB with an MVP season and a trip to the NFC Championship Game.

IMHO that gave Rodgers some pretty good leverage as far as calling for a continued commitment to his remaining in GB via and extension with more guaranteed money.  If Gutekunst or whoever declined to consider it when asked then they blinked first and set themselves up for this little drama.  At that point they confirmed what Rodgers had suspected all along.

He knew full well that he could be traded after the 2021 season.  In fact with a cap hit of nearly $40 mil and a post June 1st trade saving GB over $25 mil it was a virtual certainty.  By then the plan was to have Love who was more ideal for LaFleur's offense take over using the massive cap savings to continue to build around him in 2022 and thereafter.

Rodgers tossed a fire bomb into that plan on draft week 2021 by asking for a trade and entire year before GB was ready to do it.  I'd say the basic thinking on Rodgers part is "if you aren't willing to commit to an extension to keep me here then I want out now".  Now even if GB does make an offer of an extension it will have to be on Rodgers terms.  IMHO he has all the leverage.

I think this guy nails it pretty well;

For years people have recognized and been saying that its financially possible for the Packers to move on from him after the 2021 season. Thats it.

Nobody from the GB FO has said anything about trading him. 

AR recognizes the obvious and is using his MVP season as leverage to press for greater guarantees / commitment from the organization that he wont get moved - or - he's trying to force his way out.

Personally, I think it's more the former than the latter.

 

Where I may disagree with him is I believe they've passed the point where GB will offer enough to keep him there and there are already indications that some kind of an offer has been either made or at least discussed.  But any extension will necessarily tie him to GB even longer and tie LaFleur's hands as far as moving on within another year or two at most with Love.

By 2024 GB will have to decide whether or not to pick up Love's 5th year option and it's entirely possible he won't have started a single game for them by then.  At that point Rodgers is also 40 years old and worth far less in trade than he is now or will be after this season and Rodgers knows it too which is why he's using his leverage to force the issue and get himself traded now.

If he can accomplish that he gets a new deal along with more years, more guaranteed money, and more control over when his career is finally at an end.  I think he'd love to win another Super Bowl he just doesn't want to do it in Green Bay any longer and he'll do what it takes to get out of there including refusing to play or even retiring if that's what it takes. 

He can always un-retire next year. By then GB will have replaced him with Love and they'll have little choice but to trade him then along with what's left of his contract which stays as is.  Whether it's now or a year from now he gets out of GB and resumes his career with more money someplace else where he can also win another Super Bowl.

I don't want to celebrate too early but I really do believe when we play GB this season that Aaron Rodger will not be playing QB.

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It’s pretty obvious what plan was.

Play Rodgers in 2020 and maybe 2021 and try to win a SB then reset with Love.  

Rodgers play was declining a bit and I don’t think they really liked him on a personal level.  I think HC does or does now as they have bonded, but not front office.

They probably would have been okay with trading Rodgers on a bigger non-Covid cap and just an okay 2020. 

Then Rodgers has an unbelievable season and they were like cool, lets try to win a SB one more time and then move on.  High fives on our plan.

But Rodgers is thinking:

  You guys have been nothing but Richards to me for last 5 years.    You cut my buddies after I publicly praise them.  You never ask my input on anything.   Then you trade up and draft a first round QB and don’t even tell me about it.  

This is how convo went from Rodgers point of view:  

Rodgers:  I put everything into 2020.  A little short of SB, but I gave it everything.  I want a new deal to show me you love me and give me respect I deserve.

Them:  Yeah, thanks but no.  You already signed a contract.  Was there anything else?  No, okay then.  ... silence...  Wait, before you go, you know who we are drafting in 2021?  

Rodgers: Um no, who?

Them:  Not yo business that’s who.  Hahahahaha.  Just kidding.  Kinda.  Please close door on your way out.  

 

 

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Had a good laugh awhile ago when after trying my best to simply remain neutral and analytical about the whole Rodgers deal and trying  my best to see it from both sides with all of it's possible benefits and pitfalls naturally someone stepped in when I finished with a JMHO and accused me of being a Bronco fan so naturally I'd push for a trade now because a year from now everyone will want in on Rodgers....LOL. 

Fooled him eh?

I think it's rather typical of some Packer fans to believe that everyone in the NFL will want to sign 37 year old Aaron Rodgers to a new hundred sixty million dollar plus deal and give up a **** load of picks and players for a guy with an ego as big as Alaska who only wants to run his offense his way and not be too hamstrung by HCs who have system that conflicts with his open style of playing for MVP stats.

Aaron Rodgers is a very very good QB but somehow he's always fallen short of producing championships.  Even Eli Manning has won more rings than Aaron.  I don't hold him completely responsible for that but there has to be some reasons why Brady has won seven even winning another his first year with Tampa Bay.  Beating up on the Bears brings them much happiness but it's not a Lombardi Trophy is it?

Packer fans are funny creatures too.  They've become so accustomed to winning the NFCN they often forget there are usually at least three or four other teams as good as they are.  Anyone born after 1992 when Favre arrived has never really known any extended periods of losing. An 8-8 season was often a disaster.  My grandson has never seen another winning GB QB beside Aaron Rodgers.

Most everything up there is fitered through an expectation of winning big every year or at least beating Chicago twice, winning the NFCN hands down, and making a run deep into the playoffs.  And if they don't win it's because somehow the refs cheated them and stole the game from them a popular theme that's now  carried over into politics and elections.

To be honest while I would love to see Rodgers here in Denver giving them a shot at a Super Bowl I might actually prefer he stay in GB so we can begin beating them with Rodgers as their QB rather than Jordan Love.  If there's anyone who deserves a shot at sending Aaron into retirement with a stack of losses in a heads up competition it's the Bears.  Some Rodgers vs Fields faceoffs would thrill me.

 

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5 minutes ago, soulman said:

Had a good laugh awhile ago when after trying my best to simply remain neutral and analytical about the whole Rodgers deal and trying  my best to see it from both sides with all of it's possible benefits and pitfalls naturally someone stepped in when I finished with a JMHO and accused me of being a Bronco fan so naturally I'd push for a trade now because a year from now everyone will want in on Rodgers....LOL. 

Fooled him eh?

I think it's rather typical of some Packer fans to believe that everyone in the NFL will want to sign 37 year old Aaron Rodgers to a new hundred sixty million dollar plus deal and give up a **** load of picks and players for a guy with an ego as big as Alaska who only wants to run his offense his way and not be too hamstrung by HCs who have system that conflicts with his open style of playing for MVP stats.

Aaron Rodgers is a very very good QB but somehow he's always fallen short of producing championships.  Even Eli Manning has won more rings than Aaron.  I don't hold him completely responsible for that but there has to be some reasons why Brady has won seven even winning another his first year with Tampa Bay.  Beating up on the Bears brings them much happiness but it's not a Lombardi Trophy is it?

Packer fans are funny creatures too.  They've become so accustomed to winning the NFCN they often forget there are usually at least three or four other teams as good as they are.  Anyone born after 1992 when Favre arrived has never really known any extended periods of losing. An 8-8 season was often a disaster.  My grandson has never seen another winning GB QB beside Aaron Rodgers.

Most everything up there is fitered through an expectation of winning big every year or at least beating Chicago twice, winning the NFCN hands down, and making a run deep into the playoffs.  And if they don't win it's because somehow the refs cheated them and stole the game from them a popular theme that's now  carried over into politics and elections.

To be honest while I would love to see Rodgers here in Denver giving them a shot at a Super Bowl I might actually prefer he stay in GB so we can begin beating them with Rodgers as their QB rather than Jordan Love.  If there's anyone who deserves a shot at sending Aaron into retirement with a stack of losses in a heads up competition it's the Bears.  Some Rodgers vs Fields faceoffs would thrill me.

 

I dunno.   I think when a team keeps getting close, but no cigar it is own kind of frustration.

You saw that in Philly with McNabb and Buffalo with Kelly and Denver for a time before Elway got over hump with a dynamic new zone running attack and before that with Vikings.

People, any people, want the whole thing.   Getting close again and again kinda sucks even though season itself is fun, the let downs at end are huge.  If they didn't have the one ring with Rodgers it would be much, much worse I think.

There is a feeling, not without some merit, that a QB with a giant contract is a hindrance to winning it all.   Brady wins because he takes less and all that.   I think a lot of GB fans are on that train.

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

There is a feeling, not without some merit, that a QB with a giant contract is a hindrance to winning it all.   Brady wins because he takes less and all that.   I think a lot of GB fans are on that train.

I intentionally left that out of any of my analysis or critiques of Rodgers.  IMHO if he didn't have a $37 mil cap hit this year and nearly $40 mil next year would GB have even been plotting a separation and move to a younger guy on his rookie deal?

Rodgers has made an issue at times over not holding onto his favored guys or replacing them with others who are as good yet to the best of my knowledge he's never offered a pay cut or a home town discount to make it more affordable to get that done.

FWIW I believe this has been building to an inevitable conclusion for awhile now.  He wasn't happy when they hired LaFleur because LaFleur was a "system" guy so they had to work that out.  Then they draft Love while he's still got 4 years to go on his deal.

If you're Aaron Rodgers it's really not too tough to see where the whole thing is headed once your costing your team more than they feel your worth.  He read them like a book then found a way to mess up their plans and that's where they're at in the Tundra now.

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On 5/31/2021 at 12:41 PM, Heinz D. said:

Saw a thing yesterday that Denver's still the frontrunner, and Chubb is mostly likely going to be included in a package. It was hard to tell just how much there was to that, though. The SI came out and called that all speculation, and insisted Chubb won't be part of any package...because Paton has said Chubb is really, really good. Okay SI, whatever. I hope that if Rodgers does get traded, it gets done soon. Because while it's sort of amusing to watch all of Cheesehead Land squirm and squabble, I can see the "Where is Rodgers headed?" media barrage getting very old, very quickly. 

With Von Miller aging it's tough to see the Broncos being willing to part with a 25 year old pass rusher like Chubb.

GB's weakness always seems to be their secondary and Denver just drafted Surtain while the Packers drafted Eric Stokes.  If Denver dangled Surtain the Packers end up with two 1st round CBs on their rookie contracts and Surtain is the equivalent of a 2021 top ten pick.  That and two more 1sts would be a pretty offer at least for starters.  GB seems to need DBs more than edge rushers right now.

While GB can just fold their arms across their chest too and refuse to trade him I have a hunch that if they really wanted to maximize Rodgers trade value they'd do it now.  He's coming off an MVP year with only about $65 mil in base salaries left on his current deal so you add some additional guaranteed bonus money to that to make him happy and maybe another year or two extension.

If he sits out or retires then un-retires in 2022 what will his value be after sitting out for a year and also being a year older?

I know some of the Packer fans don't like to hear that and a few told me so when I posted in their forum but I really was trying to be as neutral as I could.  One thing I've learned the hard way is that if divorce is inevitable look for all the ways you can to get out of it with the shirt still on your back and a roof over your head.  If Rodgers has really made up his mind not to play in GB he's not gonna change it.

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2 hours ago, soulman said:

With Von Miller aging it's tough to see the Broncos being willing to part with a 25 year old pass rusher like Chubb.

GB's weakness always seems to be their secondary and Denver just drafted Surtain while the Packers drafted Eric Stokes.  If Denver dangled Surtain the Packers end up with two 1st round CBs on their rookie contracts and Surtain is the equivalent of a 2021 top ten pick.  That and two more 1sts would be a pretty offer at least for starters.  GB seems to need DBs more than edge rushers right now.

While GB can just fold their arms across their chest too and refuse to trade him I have a hunch that if they really wanted to maximize Rodgers trade value they'd do it now.  He's coming off an MVP year with only about $65 mil in base salaries left on his current deal so you add some additional guaranteed bonus money to that to make him happy and maybe another year or two extension.

If he sits out or retires then un-retires in 2022 what will his value be after sitting out for a year and also being a year older?

I know some of the Packer fans don't like to hear that and a few told me so when I posted in their forum but I really was trying to be as neutral as I could.  One thing I've learned the hard way is that if divorce is inevitable look for all the ways you can to get out of it with the shirt still on your back and a roof over your head.  If Rodgers has really made up his mind not to play in GB he's not gonna change it.

Chubb could absolutely be included in a deal for Rodgers or should be.  You would have to clear space for him and he is about to be paid big money.  Its a win/win.

If I was a GM and trading a big asset I would be looking for promising rookies.  They are cheap and have already shown they can play.   On other side of deal I would be looking to give away expensive assets or about to be expensive assets instead.

But these fantasy deals I see where Broncos give 3 ones, 3 twos, Juedy and Chubb for a 38 year old Rodgers who just got married or is getting married soon, found out he has other interests he wants to pursue and looks skinny all of a sudden.   - I would never do it.

I would trade a a really good player like Chubb and one draft pick and take a shot at a SB if Rodgers could convince me he wants to go all in or I would pass.   

People have had too much time to think about it.   And will start thinking like me above.  

Time to do trade for max value was before draft.  Mentality is different then.  Packers will never get as much as they could have got ever again.  Packers were stupid IMO.  

 

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