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Your 'initial' assessment of the Draft


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What expertise do I have, zero!  But I think Gute and his scouts are smart, so I respect and trust their evaluations.   *IF* the players both stay healthy AND play to the Packers evaluations, this can be a productive draft.  Obviously I'd LOVE the draft more if I was a Vikings fan, or Detroit.  But for the picks we had, I respect  and understand the choices.  Need/BPA discussion will never end; but this seemed another where BPA was very conveniently married to need.  

Themes:  (1) Big-program and (2) smart-and-love-football were two core themes.  (1) Other than late round Shemar and McDuffie, everybody else SEC or Big Ten.  (2) Until late-picks Slaton, and maybe Hill and/orCole, everybody else was perceived to be smart.  Smart, and all-in guys who project as good clubhouse chemists, guy who are unlikely to be overly distracted and are likely to get the most out of their talents, whatever those may be..  

Surprises:  (1) Low RAS, (2) unexpected size, and (3) variably unexpected positions.  (1) Amari and Shemar, both low-RAS guys seemingly inconsistent with past Packers drafting.  (2) Who'd have guessed they'd trade up (and overpay-the-pick) to select a short, short-armed slot?  Or so tall a center?  (3) Given history, who'd have guessed the Packers drafting a center round 2?  A slot round 3?  Given past practice of drafting college OT's and retraining them for G/C usage, who'd have guessed that rounds 2 and 4 would be choose linemen who played no or relatively little OT?  

Creativity:  Want WR who can block? Expectation was more big-and-long; Amari as a short-blocking-slot instead of a long guy was a clever and nuanced answer.  Need help at OL?  Expectation was OT; but with Jenkins able to switch OT of needed, adding Center and guard(s) indirectly addressed C, G, and OT. 

Athletic enough, or perhaps too stiff?  For a team that has formerly drafted so RAS-y, it will be interesting to see whether guys are athletic and fluid enough.  Stokes, tons to like, but some questions about hips and COD.  Myers, lots to love; but some question about being top-heavy and too tight.  I think this is the crucial hinge for Myers.  Sure, being big and smart and Buckeye-trained is all good.  But will he be able to get down and leverage with the quickness needed?  Pad level is a funny cliche, but for reason.  I hope defenders aren't able to get under and around him.  I think whether Myers can consistently block good defenders on a consistent basis, in both run and pass, is huge. 

*IF* Myers hits, then I kinda love the OL landscape short and longterm.  Some mockery of drafting 6 OL in two drafts.  But in the hypothetical where Myers is a good starter, then for the 2 remaining years of Turner's contract, Turner, Bakhti, Jenkins, and Myers gives you four starters.  That leaves Patrick, Runyan, and Newman for the other spot, with Stepaniek, Nijman, and Cole as three other possibilities.  Individually I'm not sure I'd consider any of Runyan, Stepaniek, Nijman, Newman, or VanLanen likely to become good starters, or to ever become better than Lucas Patrick.  But the quantity of those guys encourages that we can fill the 5th starter spot well; that we can cover injury relatively well; and that by the time Turner and/or Patrick expire, that we could hopefully shake out two capable starters from Runyan-Stepaniek-Nijman-Newman-VanLanen.  Linemen sometimes take time, so picking Newman and VanLanen now, for example, gives both of them a year or two to work at their guard readiness.  AFter years of thinking "Bulaga will be expiring, Bakthi will be expiring, Linsley will be expiring, Taylor will be expiring, I think we need to draft OL...", I think it could be fun to NOT need to have OL on the high-draft-priority list for a while?  

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18 hours ago, R T said:

Agree, but it may take years before fans figure out how unimportant 40 times are for the most part. For those that lean on 40 times and think that think Amari Rodgers is to slow.

Amari Rodgers - 4.52

Davante Adams - 4.56

Aaron Jones - 4.49

Randall Cobb - 4.55

Jordy Nelson - 4.51

James Jones - 4.60

Did it stop any of these guys from having productive careers? Were they to slow to take it to the house if they got in the clear? Were these players routinely run down from behind? 

literally all of these players have good agility scores  and/or good size to compensate. 

Rodgers is a slot/RB who can catch and I guess will play like a deebo samuel role?

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40-times and RAS involve measurable quantities.  For such a physical, athletic game as NFL, physical athletic capacity is essential.   

Decision-making-quickness is much harder to quantify, but is also essential.  How often are defensive plays missed because an on-the-spot split-second decision is NOT made, or is made wrongly?  Missed tackles; giving too large a cushion; biting on fakes; hesitating just a little bit; subtly mis-diagnosing even the smallest little thing.  So very much mental, recognition, decision-making.  Decision-making quickness is probably hard to project for prospects.  But it seems the Packers mental agility pretty highly in this draft.  Hopefully all of picks 1-4 will be pretty smart, alert, quick-thinking guys.  

Consistency of technique and consistency of attention are  huge too.  How often doesn't a player with enough strength/speed/RAS execute imperfectly, and miss a play?  Or relax just a little and get beat?  Again, I get the sense that in picks 1-4 that the Packers targeted guys who were pretty attention-detailed and who have pretty good technique and skill.  

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I honestly think people are calling Newman a Guard simply because that's where he was until last year, which was a whole 10 games. Nevermind the fact that he adjusted very quickly and adjusted very well. You read his scouting reports and the only real red flag is that he struggles against the bullrush and that his lateral movement is shaky. I think he could develop into a solid, but not spectacular RT simply because our OL coaching staff is elite.

Also, anyone notice that our IOL is slowly moving towards an average size of 6-4 315 vs that of 6-3 305?

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22 minutes ago, {Family Ghost} said:

Does he have 32 1/4" arms or 33 3/4" arms?  I've seen both on several different websites.  Hoping it's the latter for sure.

RAS is the only place that I see that had it at 32 1/4", makes me wonder if it wasn't an input error there. Everyplace else I checked had 33 3/4".

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52 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

So Newman should be fine at OT...

Not sure it matters, but Bulaga was 3.5 years younger when his measurements were taken.  I hope Newman proves out to be just fine at tackle, and really excellent at guard.  But Newman had 3.5 extra years to add strength and improve his body, and he still weighed a couple pounds less.  

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59 minutes ago, craig said:

Not sure it matters, but Bulaga was 3.5 years younger when his measurements were taken.  I hope Newman proves out to be just fine at tackle, and really excellent at guard.  But Newman had 3.5 extra years to add strength and improve his body, and he still weighed a couple pounds less.  

i sometimes forget how great of a prospect Bulaga was and how thrilled I was when we got him.

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54 minutes ago, R T said:

RAS is the only place that I see that had it at 32 1/4", makes me wonder if it wasn't an input error there. Everyplace else I checked had 33 3/4".

https://theathletic.com/2560666/2021/05/01/what-scouts-said-about-packers-day-3-selections-before-nfl-draft-2/  (For pay subscription article).  Short one is senior bowl, long one is pro day.   

I think it's funny that the arm-length measurement could vary by 1.5 inches, that's a 5% variance.  Obviously the senior-bowl reading would seem more trustworthy.  I don't know how it's measured procedurally.  But *IF* two honest measurement-takers each use state-of-the-art measurement procedures and can randomly get readings that differ by 1.5 inches, I think that's a reminder that those measurements may not be super precise and accurate.  

Quote

Ran the 40-yard dash in 5.10 seconds. Vertical jump of 28 inches, broad jump of 8 feet, 8 inches and 23 reps on the bench press. Arms measured 32¼ inches at the Senior Bowl and 33¾ at pro day. Has small hands (9 inches). Short shuttle of 4.75, 3-cone of 7.91.

 

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I'm curious how many people think [1] Stokes was not the right player and the Packers could have done more with their 1st rnd pick and [2] are convinced last years non-Love 1st round pick was absolutely going to win them the Super Bowl

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Andy Herman -   If you would have told me that the Monday after the draft I was talking more about Jake Kumerow than the actual draft picks themselves I would have been so insanely confused.

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TJ Lang -  Packers definitely got some nice young pieces added on the OL.. Royce Newman is a good looking prospect. Probably needs a year or 2 to develop some more strength but plays with great quickness and has a strong base. Rarely puts himself in a bad position. Probably a future OG.

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2 hours ago, Kampfgeist said:

I'm curious how many people think [1] Stokes was not the right player and the Packers could have done more with their 1st rnd pick and [2] are convinced last years non-Love 1st round pick was absolutely going to win them the Super Bowl

That pick needed to be a DB and if he was the highest DB on their board than so be it. I don’t see any other DB that I like better left on the board at that moment. 
 

No draft pick would’ve helped us win the SB last year. We already had the capabilities to do so we just shot ourselves in the foot. Once again self inflicted wounds doomed our playoff run.

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