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Goldfish's Way Too Early Draft Rankings 2021 (All up)


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Posted (edited)

Yea, Carolina nailed their draft. That offense will be nice once they find a QB.
Love their 5th and 6th round value especially. Gainwell over Chubba would have made more sense to me, since Gainwell is like a middle-class mans CMC, but can't really complain since Gainwell ended up in Philly. Like Shi Smith a lot between the 20's, but he disappears in the redzone. Now he has Joe Brady to further round out that aspect of his game. I personally would have taken TM Jr over Toney, so getting him where CAR got him felt like one of the bigger steals of the entire draft.
Brady Christensen, the LS, and the Kentucky DT are the only picks that felt like walks or singles instead of doubles or triples or dingers. Awesome draft.
If Sam Darnold does go off...Joe Brady should be 1st in line for a HC job, no matter how bad he interviews.

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Posted (edited)
On 5/13/2021 at 12:24 PM, HTTRDynasty said:
On 5/13/2021 at 11:36 AM, Jeezla said:

No, I just remember Dyami dropping multiple easy passes right in the hands. No question he has the biggest brick hands I've seen in a decade. Passes clang off his hands like they hit a solid wall. Reagor might drop more, I dunno, but the type of drops Dyami has are gross.

I'm sure you have a very reliable memory, but I'll take my chances with the objective stats.  He had some concentration drops, but I don't think they were any more "gross" than Reagor's.  And Reagor definitely dropped more.

Reagor had some of the worst QB play in college football (unlike Dyami..) his Junior year (the one you're talking about) which he definitely seemed frustrated with and like he wasn't giving his best which isn't a great look as you should always be trying to be at your best even if your QB does stink, but I digress. His drop numbers were significantly better the year before during his sophomore campaign which is when he had better QB play (still not great... but I mean its TCU lol). He doesn't have the best hands just like Brown, but you are cherry picking one year. If you are gonna bring up Reagor's 2019 drops, then do the same for Brown. I can't find his freshman drop stats, but his rookie year in the NFL he had the best drop rate on catchable passes for the Eagles despite having arguably the worst QB play (Jets and Broncos are the only other contenders) and going through a shoulder injury in camp and finger injury he had to have surgery on during the early part of the season all while being berated by Eagles fans maybe worse than I've seen a first round pick get trashed by this fan base in their first year. Just trying to provide some context here. Not trying to trash Dyami. Both are bound to have some drops just based on a lot of their passes/targets coming 20 or more yards down the field. Like you said they both suffered from some concentration drops. Reagor's drop rate improved significantly his last year of college to the pros and I'm not sure how much Brown's did from his 2019 to 2020, but I know it did. I liked both coming out and hopefully for our sakes both can continue to improve in that area and be really good #2s for our franchises. 

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2. New York Jets

NY Jets: Grade and analysis for all 10 picks in the 2021 NFL Draft

This Class In One Sentence:
They took my guys, how dare they?

Pre-Draft Needs 
CB, OL, RB, WR, LB

Selections
1 2. Zach Wilson - BYU | QB |
1 14. Alijah Vera-Tucker - USC | OG |
2 34. Elijah Moore - Ole Miss | WR |
4 107. Michael Carter - North Carolina | RB |
5 146. Jamien Sherwood - Auburn | S/LB |
5 154. Michael Carter II - Duke | S |
5 175. Jason Pinnock - Pittsburgh | CB |
6 186. Hamsah Nasirildeen - Florida State | S/LB |
6 200. Brandin Echols - Kentucky | CB |
6 207. Jonathan Marshall - Arkansas | DT |

Picks Heading In
2.
23.
34. 
66.
86.
107. 
146.
154.
186.
224.

What I Liked
It’s just a really nice haul of players, getting quality prospects with most of their selections and they took two of MY GUYS in AVT and Elijah Moore. It sucks when that it was the Jets who did that so now I have to hate those guys. I hate life. Everyone and their dog seemed to know the Jets loved Zach Wilson and despite him being my third QB, it’s easy to see why they zoned in on him. He thrives out of structure and is a mobile playmaker and elite deep thrower. He was also an absolutely dominant player at his level of competition.

I’m not sure where Douglas sees AVT playing, my guess would be slotting in at left guard. He’s absolutely rapid out of his stance, an agile and balanced mover in space and locks up defenders quickly at the second level. You just love the skill-set. My boy Elijah was chosen at 34, when many were pegging him to the Titans in the first round given their need for receivers and his connection to AJ Brown. He’s just an electric receiver with flat speed and insane agility in close quarters. Despite his loose feet with ball in hand, only a tiny percentage of his passes were screens and instead he learned to be a playmaker over the middle and showed off his ability to make contested catches despite his lack of stature. Why Jets Why. 

The Jets were linked with all of the big three running backs, but still landed a good one in Michael Carter in round four after a gap of 73 picks between selections. It was fortunate he was there, but this sure feels like excellent value. At the least, Carter could be a real feature as a pass-catcher with his soft hands and ability to make big plays. 

Then you’ve got five straight dart throws at defensive back, with some interesting names thrown in there. There’s a little to like about each of those selections, but Hamsah Nasirildeen feels like the best value of the bunch, given his size and length as a box safety. I would imagine the torn his delayed return from an ACL has something to do with the discount, but he was a really good player on a bad football team in 2019. Jamien Sherwood feels like a linebacker convert, which is something they look like they may do with him – he’s a very similar prospect to Nasirildeen and perhaps they make that move with both dudes. Jonathan Marshall I liked, too, with that last selection - an athletic marvel who might develop into a rotational DPR inside. 

What I Didn’t Like
The trade up for Alijah Vera-Tucker. Man, that falls into the ‘I love the player, but don’t do it’ category. I have no problem with him being selected in that range but watching one team move up to select him and another with an equal talent-deficiency on offensive line move down and take Christian Darrisaw and Wyatt Davis with one the picks they gave up is surreal. Imagine this haul minus AVT, but plus those two dudes and whoever they liked at 66 - there were some really good players available in that range. It was a deep class my dude, you’ve got a bad team so just chill and keep those picks in your pocket.

On a related note, how was AVT the only offensive line selection? That right side of the line isn’t look so rosy. No corner until round 5 also feels odd, given the needs there. That depth chart is a strange thing to stare at. Things to fix next year, no doubt. There's plenty of time now you have that QB under a rookie contract.

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1. Chicago Bears

Chicago Bears announce Justin Fields' jersey number

This Class In One Sentence:
A draft class which, in retrospect, looks like a mock created by the biggest Bears homer in the world.  

Pre-Draft Needs 
QB, OT, WR, CB, IOL, IDL, EDGE

Selections
1. 11. Justin Fields - Ohio State | QB |
2. 39. Teven Jenkins - Oklahoma State | OT |
5. 151. Larry Borom - Missouri | OT |
6. 217. Khalil Herbert - Virginia Tech | RB |
6. 221. Dazz Newsome - North Carolina | WR |
6. 228. Thomas Graham Jr. - Oregon | CB |
7. 250. Khyiris Tonga - BYU | DT |

Picks Heading In
20. 
52. 
64. 
204.
208.
221. 
228. 
 

What I Liked
I mean, all credit to Ryan Pace, the man knows how to fight the same fires he starts. Heading into the draft, there wasn’t a gloomier franchise in the league (outside of the Texans – but they don’t even count) in terms of the long and short-term prospects. They were cutting starters from last year’s team and Andy Dalton was the new captain of a sinking ship; that championship window was closing fast. 

Now, all of a sudden, there’s a chink of light, Pace has somehow wedged his fingers under the pane – an exciting young QB is in town and Chicago feels energized when that just felt impossible. Fields is already the most electrifying QB they’ve had in years and immediately has the potential to be their best ever, mainly given the lack of viable alternatives. He can toss it with accuracy to all levels of the field and genuinely scary upside with his athletic ability.  

The Bears then lucked out in the 2nd round and managed to add a bruising left tackle many thought would go in the middle of the first. Jenkins is just a bully, a nasty powerful blocker with an eagerness to put defenders in the dirt. He absolutely blotted out Joseph Ossai in their match-up. He’s great with his hands and has ideal length and size for the tackle position and is incredibly strong at the point of attack. Jenkins even tested well, when that was one of the lingering doubts – so I’ve no idea why he was available at 39 – or how the Bears managed to snag him, but here he is. 

Wildly, Pace wasn’t done with adding two top tier draft picks when that seemed so unlikely. There were five wild swings to take late on and he swung pretty damn well. Larry Borom is kind of okay as a versatile lineman who can play a couple of spots. Khalil Herbert feels like a really nice fit for that outside zone scheme and Dazz Newsome can easily become a decent slot/4th receiver or a valuable kick returner. 

Heck, Thomas Graham Jr is talented enough to have been drafted at least three rounds higher and could play some nickel. Even the last selection, Khyiris Tonga, is big and powerful enough to rotate in as a run stopper. I would bet at least three of those dudes end up playing meaningful football for Da Bears in 2021. 

What I Didn’t Like

While the move up for Fields looks an excellent one, especially for someone like me who had him ranked as QB2 in this class, some extremely needy QB teams all got an incredibly close look at him and decided to pass. Not only did those teams not trade up to get him, but they decided to watch him float closer than we all imagined, and some left him drift by completely. We’ll find out who was right or wrong to do that, my brain is screaming that it was those teams - but it’s at least worthy to note that it happened. Perhaps there is something we just don't know. 

Also, and this is a minor-ish point right now, while I love the move for the situation they are in - Desperation Land, Ryan Pace has a long history of selling off future capital for quick returns. On an ageing roster, this will hurt later in some form if their new quarterback can’t paper over those cracks quickly. If the Bears fail to stack up wins in 2021, the team have a vastly depleted capital in 2022 and could become a fire sale. That’s a situation which has ruined the careers of plenty young QBs. 
 

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On 5/15/2021 at 4:26 AM, goldfishwars said:

5. Miami Dolphins

Jaylen Waddle selected by Miami Dolphins in 2021 NFL draft

This Class In One Sentence:
Miami put themselves in a position where it was difficult to come away with anything less than a haul

Pre-Draft Needs 
Edge, WR, RB, OL

Selections
1. 6. Jaylen Waddle - Alabama | WR |
1. 18. Jaelan Phillips - Miami (FL) | DE |
2. 36. Jevon Holland - Oregon | S |
2. 42. Liam Eichenberg - Notre Dame | OT |
3. 81. Hunter Long - Boston College | TE |
7. 231. Larnel Coleman - UMass | OT |
7. 244. Gerrid Doaks - Cincinnati | RB |

Picks Heading In
6.
18.
36.
50.
81. 
156.
231.
244. 

What I Liked
Pushing the front-loaded draft capital aside, any team would be excited to have added the talent Miami were able to acquire. It really is a huge credit to that front office for continuing to accumulate incredible value over multiple classes. Jaylen Waddle was the pick at 6 when many were wondering which way they would go. There is room for him to grow as a route-runner, but he is the sort of elite playmaker that forces the defense into passive positions with his freakish combination of speed and lateral agility. If Miami was looking for elite traits, they found them in Waddle. 

Jaelan Phillips was the pick at 18 and generally considered to have been the most talented edge in the class with his ability to rush with speed and power. Either Miami feels really good about his medical history or were happy to take a high upside risk with the second of their first-round selections. Jevon Holland was this year’s ‘oh yeah, that guy is in the draft’ prospect every time his name came up. He’s a high floor and versatile db who reads the game well and has solid fundamental skills.

Liam Eichenberg was a trade-up, using next year’s third – perhaps feeling he was the last clean offensive line prospect in the class. Eichenberg has some length deficiencies on paper which aren’t particularly apparent on film given that had gave up a total of zero sacks in the past two seasons. He has some plug and play inside or outside that allows Miami to field their best five.

Hunter Long was a contested catch king at BC, regularly plucking badly thrown passes from his quarterback. It’s a crowded room in Miami right now, but he has a more prototypical skill set than others on the roster. Then you have the two late shots on Larnel Coleman, who is interesting from a size and movement perspective – that’s a decent project to stash away. 

What I Didn’t Like
Like last year’s haul, Miami don’t always spend their hefty capital as you’d necessarily expect. In retrospect, it's perhaps now a question whether they needed to make the move back up to 6 so quickly given the riskier-than-ideal aspect of both first-round selections, comparative within their position classes. It feels a bit like Waddle was the pivot move, rather than the original target there.  If they wanted to play it safe, Devonta Smith and Kwitty Paye could have been their first round selections, so it'll be interesting to see how that plays out. 

Gerrid Doaks was the only pick made at running back, with Javonte Williams the last of the big three to be selected one pick before their 36th. They missed out on JK Dobbins by one pick in last year's draft too. The Dolphins are really testing the ‘you can find running backs anywhere’ theory. I suppose Doaks might give them some of the power they were missing at (Malcolm Brown is there too from FA) and I kind of like him, but that’s only a very light investment. 
 

I Appreciate the hard work you’ve put in on this thread. Really great stuff!
 

This is where I expected Miami to be, you didn’t disappoint! 

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I would not have put Chicago #1. I think they are getting too much credit for the Fields trade, for which they overpaid substantially. However, the deal with Carolina was much better and both trades were necessary to land a sliding player. 

There is real danger that this becomes a two player draft and I would prefer the Jets first two players. Unless one of the players becomes an regular at the Pro-Bowl, it's not enough. It will sell tickets and memorabilia, but not win many games. This is not to say that day #3 was poor. It wasn't. It's just nothing to turn heads. 

Overall, I think this draft deserves to rank with Carolina or Denver. To me, the Jets were the clear winner. Yes, they started with more draft capital, but look what they did with it. Just look at the 5th round onward compared to the Bears.

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9 hours ago, TheRealMcCoy said:

Reagor had some of the worst QB play in college football (unlike Dyami..) his Junior year (the one you're talking about) which he definitely seemed frustrated with and like he wasn't giving his best which isn't a great look as you should always be trying to be at your best even if your QB does stink, but I digress. His drop numbers were significantly better the year before during his sophomore campaign which is when he had better QB play (still not great... but I mean its TCU lol). He doesn't have the best hands just like Brown, but you are cherry picking one year. If you are gonna bring up Reagor's 2019 drops, then do the same for Brown. I can't find his freshman drop stats, but his rookie year in the NFL he had the best drop rate on catchable passes for the Eagles despite having arguably the worst QB play (Jets and Broncos are the only other contenders) and going through a shoulder injury in camp and finger injury he had to have surgery on during the early part of the season all while being berated by Eagles fans maybe worse than I've seen a first round pick get trashed by this fan base in their first year. Just trying to provide some context here. Not trying to trash Dyami. Both are bound to have some drops just based on a lot of their passes/targets coming 20 or more yards down the field. Like you said they both suffered from some concentration drops. Reagor's drop rate improved significantly his last year of college to the pros and I'm not sure how much Brown's did from his 2019 to 2020, but I know it did. I liked both coming out and hopefully for our sakes both can continue to improve in that area and be really good #2s for our franchises. 

I was comparing them both as prospects, not cherry-picking.

Also, Reagor was just used as an example to point out how shortsighted and dramatic the other poster was being with his “evaluation” of Brown. 

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I enjoy reading your write ups every year. Nice work as always.

I expected the Jets to be top 5. Within that, it’s a coin flip and preference.

Our depth chart is interesting to look at for sure. We don’t have a complete team. Joe Douglas has done well his first two drafts but we were lacking talent everywhere that it’s just going to take time. Like you said, the right side of the OL, corner and even edge and TE may still need to be addressed next year. I like his approach of going quality early and volume late. The Jets don’t have much high end talent. We need quality as much as we need depth.

We have a young team and Saleh sounds like he is not afraid to play them.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

I was comparing them both as prospects, not cherry-picking.

Also, Reagor was just used as an example to point out how shortsighted and dramatic the other poster was being with his “evaluation” of Brown. 

I watched 3 game films of him. He had multiple drops in each game that hit him right in the hands. Therefore, he has bad hands. Not sure what's dramatic or short-sighted about that. I would have said the same thing if the Eagles drafted him. He has bad hands until he proves he doesn't. And Reagor is just sort of there until he proves otherwise.

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Not to turn this into a Jalen Reagor thread but, there wasn't a single point last year where I thought to myself "This dude can't catch". There were, however, several instances where I thought to myself, "this would be a nice catch" where Reagor ended up hauling the pass in. I have no concerns about his hands at all quite frankly.

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