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Goldfish's Way Too Early Draft Rankings 2021 (All up)


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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, iknowcool said:

This is a really good point.  It's important to trust your own evaluations regardless, but it does speak volumes that teams clearly didn't see Fields in the same light as fans and some analysts do. 

I still do think he will be a very good QB (reminds me of Watson coming out, although Fields has a stronger arm).  It will be interesting to look back in a few years and see which of the QB needy teams made the smartest decision.  

Albert Breer is on record/reported via radio interview last week in Boston that the Panthers and Broncos both were down to Horn/Surtain/Fields where they picked inside the top 10. Washington and the Saints liked Fields enough to consider trading up for him as he was falling.  I think Fields is the best QB prospect in the draft which is of course somehow controversial because people overrated Lawrence but I can see how team convince themselves or feel pressure to make certain selections. Either way, between injuries to Fields, the epilepsy thing, and Georgia transfer I can see why some decision makers would be mindful of other surer bets in their mind if there were any. Apparently the Panthers and Broncos thought that about Surtain and Horn, plus the need was greater for them at those positions. Still, Fields was in top contention for their picks because he is a dynamic, elite prospect.

https://985thesportshub.com/episodes/albert-breer-from-themmqb-com-joins-toucher-rich-5-14-hour-2/

^Around the 19 minute mark, Breer starts getting into the drafting of Fields versus Mac Jones and leaks some information about what the teams ahead of the Patriots were looking at with their picks. The interview is about 42 minutes in total.

Edited by DoleINGout
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7 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

Not sure that's how trades work, man. Like or not, AVT has to be worth at least as much as what the Vikings acquired for that trade to look good for the Jets. That's going to be extremely hard for him to do. It's really why you don't give up multiple picks to draft guards in the first round.

That’s exactly how trades work. There’s no way Douglas was thinking “hmm AVT or I wait and get both Darrisaw and Davis” the only know was him receiving AVT who he ranked high enough to warrant the trade up. That’s the beauty of having so many picks. You’re in the position to get who you want. 

Then I also see people saying AVT has to be someone better than what the Vikings got but ultimately he just has to be good for us. What they do in Minnesota is irrelevant. As long as AVT plugs in at LG and plays well then the trade was successful in my eyes. 

Last thing is that just because he’s a Guard doesn’t mean he’s invaluable. Any weak link on your OL hurts the offense. A lot of teams have seen that. The Chiefs just gave a Guard 80M. It’s the same as downplaying a Right Tackle. These positions matter heavily. 

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20 minutes ago, KingOfNewYork said:

That’s exactly how trades work. There’s no way Douglas was thinking “hmm AVT or I wait and get both Darrisaw and Davis” the only know was him receiving AVT who he ranked high enough to warrant the trade up. That’s the beauty of having so many picks. You’re in the position to get who you want. 

Then I also see people saying AVT has to be someone better than what the Vikings got but ultimately he just has to be good for us. What they do in Minnesota is irrelevant. As long as AVT plugs in at LG and plays well then the trade was successful in my eyes. 

Last thing is that just because he’s a Guard doesn’t mean he’s invaluable. Any weak link on your OL hurts the offense. A lot of teams have seen that. The Chiefs just gave a Guard 80M. It’s the same as downplaying a Right Tackle. These positions matter heavily. 

Look, I get you're happy with getting AVT (you should be) - but the only way to evaluate whether the trade is a good one is by comparing one team with one good prospect at offensive line and the other team who with two good players at offensive line (and a quarterback). I don't know what else to say. 

And yes, you're right - any weak link on the OL hurts the offense. So it's better to have more, not less?

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Disagree, Humphrey wasn't a first round talent in my opinion and either was Ossai, Ossai doesn't have any where near the athletic ability or upside of Oweh. Production doesn't always work out and there are plenty of failed draft picks by the Ravens in the past that bare that out. It's obvious to me that the Ravens now have a different approach with EDC at the helm and it's drafting players with insane athletic profiles that can be molded into what they are looking for. Time will tell.

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53 minutes ago, Letsch80 said:

Disagree, Humphrey wasn't a first round talent in my opinion and either was Ossai, Ossai doesn't have any where near the athletic ability or upside of Oweh. Production doesn't always work out and there are plenty of failed draft picks by the Ravens in the past that bare that out. It's obvious to me that the Ravens now have a different approach with EDC at the helm and it's drafting players with insane athletic profiles that can be molded into what they are looking for. Time will tell.

“Production doesn’t always work out”: a Jaylon Ferguson documentary.

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2 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

Look, I get you're happy with getting AVT (you should be) - but the only way to evaluate whether the trade is a good one is by comparing one team with one good prospect at offensive line and the other team who with two good players at offensive line (and a quarterback). I don't know what else to say. 

And yes, you're right - any weak link on the OL hurts the offense. So it's better to have more, not less?

I'm not "happy" I just don't necessarily understand the critique because you're judging a trade based on hindsight also assuming that we had any value placed on the other 2 OL. Factor in Wyatt Davis not being a fit for us(so his addition would be irrelevant). 

Then again the 49ers are getting criticized for trading up to 3 when "they could have gotten Lance at 12"

Idk man I do appreciate the thought you put into these rankings however. 

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41 minutes ago, KingOfNewYork said:

I'm not "happy" I just don't necessarily understand the critique because you're judging a trade based on hindsight also assuming that we had any value placed on the other 2 OL. Factor in Wyatt Davis not being a fit for us(so his addition would be irrelevant). 

Then again the 49ers are getting criticized for trading up to 3 when "they could have gotten Lance at 12"

Idk man I do appreciate the thought you put into these rankings however. 

To be fair, how else would you judge a trade? Moving up 9 spots to take a play who might well be a (good) guard at the next level, in a class that was deep at offensive lineman, didn't look great before the Vikings selected anyone. It looked like Spielman made a better calculation. Plus, it doesn't really matter who the Vikings took at all. It's only interesting because it's two teams fishing in the same pond, so it's easy to draw a direct comparison after the event. 

Just out of interest, why would Wyatt Davis be a fit for the Vikings and not the Jets? The Jets are looking to play more zone, right? 

Thanks for the note, appreciate you reading :)

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1 hour ago, goldfishwars said:

To be fair, how else would you judge a trade? Moving up 9 spots to take a play who might well be a (good) guard at the next level, in a class that was deep at offensive lineman, didn't look great before the Vikings selected anyone. It looked like Spielman made a better calculation. Plus, it doesn't really matter who the Vikings took at all. It's only interesting because it's two teams fishing in the same pond, so it's easy to draw a direct comparison after the event. 

Just out of interest, why would Wyatt Davis be a fit for the Vikings and not the Jets? The Jets are looking to play more zone, right? 

Thanks for the note, appreciate you reading :)

To me because the Jets were in a position where they could move around the draft due to the amount of picks they had they made a conscious effort pre-draft to make moves for guys they had significant interest in. AVT was top 10 on our board, his value to us was likely greater than the combined value of 2 would be 3rd round picks(one of which could have been Michael Carter who we ended up getting in the 4th) but again hindsight so there's no guarantee it works out that way. 

We added 3 of our top 25(reportedly) to me that is more valuable than a what could have been had we stayed put and watched how the board fell. 

As for Davis I dont like his fit in zone schemes, he's great in space from what I've seen/read but is very dominant when he gets his hands on guys. Minnesota got good value where they got him, maybe they can work on his technique to help him grow in his weak areas. But we'll see. 

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Posted (edited)
On 5/18/2021 at 9:10 AM, KingOfNewYork said:

The Chiefs just gave a Guard 80M. It’s the same as downplaying a Right Tackle. These positions matter heavily. 

Agree with most of what you said, but no, it’s not like downplaying a right tackle at all. Between where you can effectively get them in the draft, how often they hit the market, the actual price they hit the market at, and their actual difference on the field - right tackles and guards are quite different.

 

Edited by Yin-Yang
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On 5/17/2021 at 6:41 PM, diamondbull424 said:

You’re quite sorely mistaken

All we have to do is wait for a bit of Burrow hype. Your true colors will show then.

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Posted (edited)
On 5/17/2021 at 7:16 AM, BigTrav said:

In no scenario could I ever agree with Denver (let's not draft Justin Fields even though he's right there) being 4th. I thought they dropped the ball on that.

The later picks are good enough, but I'd be livid if I were a Denver fan. Another year of QB purgatory. Well done.

Most of us are livid in the Denver board. The only hope that's keeping us afloat is that Fields was passed because there is a *wink wink* deal in place for Rogers that Paton confirmed on draft day. Bad part about the purgatory too is it probably won't happen this season since the Broncos have one of the easiest schedules out of anybody. Literally 6-8 games are a joke so it will end up looking like the Broncos might be "turning a corner" but in fact still suck

Edited by Dbrog24
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On 5/14/2021 at 1:26 PM, MSURacerDT55 said:

Where I am with this is A) The current Browns brain trust has earned the benefit of the doubt

The current Browns brain trust has proven they can build a 3rd place team by spending an OBSCENE amount of draft capital that was earned through the virtue of being so abysmal of a team that they could benefit year after year from the league rules for picking up losers.

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Posted (edited)
On 5/15/2021 at 9:19 AM, goldfishwars said:

4. Denver Broncos

National media evaluate the Broncos' 2021 draft class

This Class In One Sentence:
A genuinely brilliant class, but is it missing one important thing?

Pre-Draft Needs 
QB, OT, S, LB, RB

Selections
1. 9. Patrick Surtain II - Alabama | CB |
2. 35. Javonte Williams - North Carolina | RB |
3. 98. Quinn Meinerz - Wisconsin–Whitewater | C |
3. 105. Baron Browning - Ohio State | LB |
5. 152. Caden Sterns - Texas | S |
5. 164. Jamar Johnson - Indiana | S |
6. 219. Seth Williams - Auburn | WR |
7. 237. Kary Vincent Jr. - LSU | CB |
7. 239. Jonathon Cooper - Ohio State | DE |
7. 253. Marquiss Spencer - Mississippi State | DE |

Picks Heading In
9. 
40.
71. 
114. 
152. 
191. 
237. 
253. 
 

Really nice work, look forward to this list every offseason. For me, turning pick 71 into Meinerz, Browning and Johnson just blew me away. He read that 3rd round perfectly and even the cherry on top in Jamar Johnson was a steal (at least relative to projections). Elway and Russell had their strengths as evaluators but they never played the board that way. Paton learned a lot from Spielman. 

Edited by BroncoBruin
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